Incumbent MLCs
- Lizzie Blandthorn (Labor), since 2022
- Moira Deeming (Independent), since 20221
- David Ettershank (Legalise Cannabis), since 2022
- Trung Luu (Liberal), since 2022
- Ingrid Stitt (Labor), since 2018
1Moira Deeming resigned from the Liberal Party on 28 July 2026.
| Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin |
| Footscray | ALP 4.2% vs GRN | Point Cook | ALP 8.3% | Tarneit | ALP 12.3% |
| Kororoit | ALP 14.5% | St Albans | ALP 9.6% | Werribee | ALP 10.9% |
| Laverton | ALP 18.4% | Sunbury | ALP 6.4% | Williamstown | ALP 13.4% |
| Niddrie | ALP 6.7% | Sydenham | ALP 8.8% |
The Western Metropolitan region covers the western suburbs from Sunbury in the north to Werribee in the south, and as far east as Williamstown and Footscray.
All eleven seats in the region are held by the ALP. Most of these seats are reasonably safe, with margins ranging from 4.2% in Footscray to 18.4% in Laverton.
History
Western Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.
At the first election, the ALP won three seats, and the Liberal Party and the Greens each won one seat.
In 2010, Labor lost their third seat to the Liberal Party.
That second Liberal seat fell in 2014 to DLP candidate Rachel Carling-Jenkins. Carling-Jenkins went on to switch to the Australian Conservatives in 2017.
Labor regained its third seat in 2018, with the Liberal Party retaining their one seat. The Greens lost their one seat, as did Carling-Jenkins. Catherine Cumming won a seat for Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, but quit the party shortly after the election to sit as an independent.
Two other members left their party during the 2018-22 term. Kaushaliya Vaghela left the ALP and formed the New Democrats, while Bernie Finn left the Liberal Party and joined the Democratic Labour Party.
Finn, Vaghela and Cumming all lost their seats in 2022. Labor retained two of their seats while the Liberal Party regained a second seat. The fifth seat was won by Legalise Cannabis.
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Quota |
| Labor | 166,371 | 37.0 | -9.8 | 2.222 |
| Liberal | 109,895 | 24.5 | +3.7 | 1.468 |
| Greens | 36,239 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0.484 |
| Democratic Labour | 23,422 | 5.2 | +1.5 | 0.313 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 19,295 | 4.3 | +4.3 | 0.258 |
| Victorian Socialists | 16,095 | 3.6 | +3.0 | 0.215 |
| Family First | 14,261 | 3.2 | +3.2 | 0.191 |
| One Nation | 7,691 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 0.103 |
| Liberal Democrats | 6,546 | 1.5 | -0.3 | 0.087 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 6,401 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 0.086 |
| Animal Justice | 6,209 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 0.083 |
| Hinch’s Justice | 5,371 | 1.2 | -5.8 | 0.072 |
| United Australia | 4,747 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.063 |
| Sack Dan Andrews | 3,653 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.049 |
| Reason | 3,617 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0.048 |
| Freedom Party | 3,513 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.047 |
| Angry Victorians | 2,569 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.034 |
| New Democrats | 2,470 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0.033 |
| Others | 10,790 | 2.4 | 0.144 | |
| Informal | 19,025 | 4.1 |
Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor retained two seats and the Liberal Party retained one.
Let’s fast-forward until there were ten candidates running for the last two seats:
- Bernadette Thomas (GRN) – 0.498
- Trung Luu (LIB) – 0.490
- Bernie Finn (DLP) – 0.479
- Liz Walsh (SOC) – 0.303
- David Ettershank (LGC) – 0.295
- Darren Buller (FF) – 0.235
- Cesar Melhem (ALP) – 0.216
- Kaushaliya Vaghela (ND) – 0.175
- Ursula Van Bree (ON) – 0.173
- Ken Vickers (SFF) – 0.095
Shooters preferences pushed the DLP into the front:
- Finn (DLP) – 0.551
- Thomas (GRN) – 0.500
- Luu (LIB) – 0.493
- Walsh (SOC) – 0.304
- Ettershank (LGC) – 0.300
- Buller (FF) – 0.237
- Melhem (ALP) – 0.217
- Van Bree (ON) – 0.177
- Vaghela (ND) – 0.175
New Democrats preferences also favoured the DLP:
- Finn (DLP) – 0.695
- Thomas (GRN) – 0.500
- Luu (LIB) – 0.494
- Walsh (SOC) – 0.304
- Ettershank (LGC) – 0.300
- Buller (FF) – 0.237
- Melhem (ALP) – 0.217
- Van Bree (ON) – 0.200
One Nation preferences mostly flowed to the Liberal and Family First candidates:
- Finn (DLP) – 0.698
- Luu (LIB) – 0.587
- Thomas (GRN) – 0.501
- Buller (FF) – 0.321
- Walsh (SOC) – 0.305
- Ettershank (LGC) – 0.302
- Melhem (ALP) – 0.218
Labor preferences mostly split between Legalise Cannabis and the Victorian Socialists:
- Finn (DLP) – 0.698
- Luu (LIB) – 0.588
- Thomas (GRN) – 0.506
- Walsh (SOC) – 0.402
- Ettershank (LGC) – 0.398
- Buller (FF) – 0.321
Family First preferences favoured the DLP and the Liberal Party:
- Finn (DLP) – 0.862
- Luu (LIB) – 0.686
- Thomas (GRN) – 0.509
- Ettershank (LGC) – 0.426
- Walsh (SOC) – 0.403
Socialist preferences strongly flowed to Legalise Cannabis:
- Finn (DLP) – 0.863
- Ettershank (LGC) – 0.782
- Luu (LIB) – 0.687
- Thomas (GRN) – 0.536
Greens preferences elected Legalise Cannabis to the fourth seat with a substantial surplus:
- Ettershank (LGC) – 1.207
- Finn (DLP) – 0.868
- Luu (LIB) – 0.694
The Legalise Cannabis surplus flowed strongly to the Liberal Party and the Liberal Party won the final seat by just 210 votes:
- Luu (LIB) – 0.884
- Finn (DLP) – 0.881
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
Regional breakdown
Labor topped the poll in Western Metropolitan, winning the most primary votes in all eleven seats.
The Labor primary vote ranged from 34.7% in Niddrie up to 40.3% in Laverton.
The Liberal Party’s primary vote ranged from 16.3% in Footscray to 33% in Niddrie. The Greens outpolled the Liberal Party in Footscray.
Results of the 2022 Victorian upper house election in the Western Metropolitan region
@Marh,
I noticed later that was what she was doing which is extremely unfortunate.
I wonder if Bernie Finn could be the One Nation Leader for Victoria? If he does, would he run in the Western Metropolitan Region again or in the seat of Sunbury (he lives is Bulla and was an MP in that seat under the name ‘Tullamarine’ during his first stint)?
Moira Deeming has been disendorsed in a 17-0 Executive vote. I still doubt she end up going quietly. Some speculation that she might go to the Libertarians.
She no longer has a personal interest is seeing the Liberals do well in November so i think she will be a loose Cannon she has nothing to loose now. With Parliamentary privelege in the remaining months she can air as much as she wants and it will be on Hansard forever. In addition to the Libertarians she also may consider DLP or Family First.
Moira seems to have got herself into a whole series of messes. There is a story today in the The Australian – behind the paywall so could only see beginning – that she is being pursued for the money put up by one of her previous financial backers so could face bankruptcy. Yes, she could use parliamentary privilege to air whatever though there are probably not too many sitting days left. If the GVT changes are made she is finished wherever she goes.
I personally feel Moira Deeming would have better off in a minor party from the start than one of the two makor parties Family First is probably the most appropriate party. I think it was Peta Credlin who convinced her to stay and fight from within if it was not for Sky After Dark i think she may have defected. I think Labor is different in that they have accepted that there will always be parties further left so i dont think the Labor party is interested in people in having people such as Mehreen Faruqi or Lidia Thrope in their party room. They have accepted that the Greens will always win Upper house seats and their strategy to counter them in lower house seats is to focus on having MPs like Ged Kearney in Cooper who are well liked locally but dont destablise the party room. I think Sarah Witty in Melbourne will be like that. However, one isssue that Credlin has said that when Coalition looses votes to their right flank is that they dont get a diciplined flow of preferences like Greens to Labor, often this means they fear loosing votes on their right flank rather than capturing centrist swing voters.
Early prediction for Western Metro: 1 ALP, 1 Lib, 1 Green, 1 ONP, 1 West Party
@Andrew from 3040: Are you assuming that group ticket voting is abolished?
@Andrew from 3040: I am not sure that Labor will lose the second seat, with or without group voting tickets. It will be a very terrible and shocking result for Labor to lose the second seat. Without group voting tickets, I think 2 ALP, 1 Lib, 0 Green, 1 ONP, 1 West Party will be a more realistic result.
West Party looks good on paper, but I’m not sure at this stage that they are actually having much impact on the ground to the point where they could out-compete the main parties at this stage
ALP 1
ONP 1
LIB 1
GRN 1
With Labor and ONP in a battle for the 5th seat is how I currently see it
This may have been lost in today bigger news but Moira Deeming has resigned from Parliamentary Liberal party.
Bernie Finn, now a member of One Nation, on FB mentioned he won’t be contesting this election.
City of Melbourne Councilor and former Liberal Candidate for Aston by election Roshena Campbell has been selected as the top candidate for the Western Metropolitan region.