Senate – Western Australia – Australia 2028

Incumbent Senators

Term due to expire 2028 Term due to expire 2031
Michaelia Cash (Liberal) Slade Brockman (Liberal)
Dorinda Cox (Labor)1 Varun Ghosh (Labor)
Sue Lines (Labor) Matt O’Sullivan (Liberal)
Fatima Payman (Independent) Jordon Steele-John (Greens)
Dean Smith (Liberal) Ellie Whiteaker (Labor)
Glenn Sterle (Labor) Tyron Whitten (One Nation)

1Dorinda Cox resigned from the Greens on 2 June 2025 to join the ALP.

History
Western Australian Senate races were dominated by the Coalition from 1951 until the beginning of the 1980s. The 1951 election produced a result of four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators.  The 1953 election saw the ALP win a seat off the Country Party, but the previous result was restored in 1955. The 4-4-2 result was maintained at every election throughout the 1950s and 1960s. The 1970 Senate election saw the Liberal Party lose one of its four seats to independent Syd Negus, who was elected on a platform of abolishing death duties.

The 1974 double dissolution saw Negus defeated and the Country Party lose one of its two seats. The result saw five Labor senators alongside four Liberals and one Country senator. The 1975 double dissolution saw the Coalition regain its majority in Western Australia, with the ALP losing its fifth senate seat to the Liberals. The 1977 election saw the National Country Party lose its senate seat to the Liberals, producing a result of six Liberals and four Labor senators.

The 1983 double dissolution saw the Liberals lose their majority, with five Liberals, four Labor and one Democrat elected. The 1984 election saw Labor gain both new Senate seats while the Democrats lost their seat. In addition to 6 ALP and 5 Liberal, the Nuclear Disarmament Party’s Jo Vallentine was elected. At the 1987 double dissolution, Vallentine was re-elected as an independent along with a Democrat and five each for the two major parties.

The 1990 election saw the Liberals win six seats, along with five Labor and the re-elected Vallentine, who was re-elected as a Green. The Liberals have maintained six WA seats ever since. The 1993 election saw the Greens win a second seat off the ALP. From 1993 until today, WA has been represented by six Liberals, four Labor senators and two minor party Senators from the Greens or Democrats.

In 1996, the Greens lost one of their seats to the Democrats, losing their other seat in 1998. The Democrats held onto their seat in 2001 before losing one of their seats in 2004. The last Democrat was defeated by the Greens candidate in 2007.

The 2010 election was a status quo result. It was the third election in a row which saw three Liberals, two Labor and one Green elected.

The 2013 election produced a bizarre result, where a tiny vote margin between two nonviable candidates decided whether two seats would go to the Palmer United Party and Labor, or the Greens and the Australian Sports Party. A recount reversed the result, but also saw a large batch of ballot papers go missing, forcing a re-election.

At the 2014 re-election, large swings to the Greens and the Palmer United Party saw both parties win one seat each, with the Liberal Party retaining their three seats and Labor limping in with only one seat.

There were two changes at the 2016 double dissolution. Labor recovered their fourth seat, while the Liberal Party dropped from six to five. The Greens maintained their two seats. The Palmer United Party lost their sole seat, with One Nation winning a single seat.

The Liberal Party regained their third seat (for a total of six) at the 2019 election, with One Nation losing their sole seat. There was no change for Labor or the Greens.

The 2022 election was a strong one for the left in Western Australia. Labor won three seats in the state for the first time ever at a six-seat Senate election. They managed to do so not by defeating another left party for the third seat, but by winning a seat off the right. Labor won three seats along with two Liberals and one Green. This was crucial in producing a progressive majority in the Senate.

The Liberal Party lost another seat in 2025, with One Nation winning the third right-wing seat. This is the first One Nation victory in the state at a half-Senate election.

2025 result

Group Votes % Swing Quota
Labor 586,692 36.2 +1.6 2.5319
Liberal 431,607 26.6 -5.1 1.8626
Greens 208,327 12.8 -1.4 0.8991
One Nation 95,230 5.9 +2.4 0.4110
Legalise Cannabis 65,340 4.0 +0.7 0.2820
Nationals 58,043 3.6 +3.6 0.2505
Australian Christians 43,373 2.7 +0.5 0.1872
Trumpet of Patriots 27,183 1.7 +1.1 0.1173
People First 24,043 1.5 +1.5 0.1038
Animal Justice 18,019 1.1 +0.2 0.0778
Great Australian Party 15,249 0.9 -0.1 0.0658
Australia’s Voice 11,139 0.7 +0.7 0.0481
Libertarian 10,288 0.6 +0.6 0.0444
Others 27,483 1.7 0.1186
Informal 43,331 2.6

Preference flows
Three seats were won on primary votes: two for Labor and one for the Liberal Party. The Greens won the fourth seat before the final stages of the count.

We can now fast forward to the last eight candidates contesting the last two seats:

  • Matt O’Sullivan (LIB) – 0.8805 quotas
  • Deep Singh (ALP) – 0.5666
  • Tyron Whitten (ON) – 0.4404
  • Jason Meotti (LGC) – 0.3362
  • Paul Brown (NAT) – 0.2679
  • Steve Klomp (CHR) – 0.2208
  • Melissa Bannister (TOP) – 0.1398
  • Madison King (GRPF) – 0.1325

People First preferences flowed most strongly to One Nation:

  • O’Sullivan (LIB) – 0.8870
  • Singh (ALP) – 0.5755
  • Whitten (ON) – 0.4882
  • Meotti (LGC) – 0.3487
  • Brown (NAT) – 0.2736
  • Klomp (CHR) – 0.2430
  • Bannister (TOP) – 0.1620

Trumpet of Patriots preferences also favoured One Nation:

  • O’Sullivan (LIB) – 0.9045
  • Singh (ALP) – 0.5917
  • Whitten (ON) – 0.5498
  • Meotti (LGC) – 0.3683
  • Brown (NAT) – 0.2804
  • Klomp (CHR) – 0.2718

Australian Christians preferences also favoured One Nation:

  • O’Sullivan (LIB) – 0.9608
  • Whitten (ON) – 0.6493
  • Singh (ALP) – 0.6300
  • Meotti (LGC) – 0.3819
  • Brown (NAT) – 0.2967

Nationals preferences flowed primarily to the Liberal Party, electing O’Sullivan to the fifth seat:

  • O’Sullivan (LIB) – 1.1377
  • Whitten (ON) – 0.6998
  • Singh (ALP) – 0.6603
  • Meotti (LGC) – 0.4038

The Liberal surplus widened One Nation’s lead:

  • Whitten (ON) – 0.7798
  • Singh (ALP) – 0.6899
  • Meotti (LGC) – 0.4184

Legalise Cannabis preferences favoured Labor over One Nation but it was not enough to close the gap, and One Nation won.

  • Whitten (ON) – 0.8949
  • Singh (ALP) – 0.8586

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.

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14 COMMENTS

  1. @ John
    I think there will be a 3-3 Left Right Split in 2028 so there will be a net loss of 1 for the Left. Dorinda Cox will be re-elected if she is preselected in the to 2. There is a chance Sue Lines may retire due to her age.
    If Fatima Payman is smart she will join the Greens as she cannot be re-elected on her own.

  2. Cox won’t get the number 2 spot. She’s a turncoat greens mp. Labor will won’t that spot for one of their mates who wants a safe winnable seat.

  3. I dont think there will be a 4-2 Split in Favour of the Right like there was in 2013 unless it is landslide in 2028. I am not sure if ONP or Libs will win final seat.

  4. I cant see libs losing their second seat especially with Nationals preferences. No way the last seat is lib v lab unless it for their 3rd seats. 2 Lib 2 Lab and 1 Grn are almost a certainty.

  5. A 4-2 Left Right Split will require a third landslide in WA which is a hard ask. Labor won two 4-2 Left Right Splits in 2025 in VIC and SA so they can afford to loose 1 seat in 2028 and ensure a progressive majority in the Senate is maintained.
    Tammy Tyrell while i dont consider her a progressive is likley to loose her senate seat in Tas as well.

  6. I agree John, it’ll be 2 seats each for the major parties, one for the Greens, and a tossup seat. Probably between Labor and One Nation.

    I wonder at what position will Dorinda Cox is preselected, as both Sue Lines and Glenn Sterle are at an age where they might be considering retirement.

  7. CJ, I suspect Dorinda Cox would get the challenging/hard to win 3rd spot on the Labor ticket. Even as an incumbent, she is technically a ‘defector’ similar to former SA Liberal and ex Family First Senator Lucy Gichuhi.

    At the 2019 election, Gichuhi was placed 4th on the SA Liberal ticket behind newcomer Alex Antic. I suspect even if either Sue Lines or Glen Sterle retire, Labor would pick a new candidate to run in 1st/2nd spot with Dorinda Cox likely to miss out.

  8. Yoh exactly. Labor reserves afe winnable seats for those who have the inside track and are effectively jobs for mates positions.

  9. The 3rd spot is often a token gesture. E.g fatima payman in 2022 in wa and Australia’s youngest politician in sa this year.

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