Hinchinbrook by-election, 2025

Cause of by-election
Sitting Katter’s Australian Party Nick Dametto has announced his intention to resign from parliament to contest the by-election for the mayor of the City of Townsville, to be held in November. It is not clear if the Hinchinbrook state by-election will be held in 2025 or 2026.

Margin – KAP 13.2% vs LNP

Incumbent MP
Nick Dametto, since 2017.

Geography
North Queensland. Covers the Queensland coastline north of Townsville. The seat covers southern parts of Cassoway Coast council area, all of Hinchinbrook, and northern parts of Townsville LGA. The seat covers Ingham, Cardwell, Alice River, and some of the northern beaches of Townsville.

History
The seat of Hinchinbrook was first created in 1950, and had been held by the Country/National/Liberal National Party from 1960 until 2017.

Marc Rowell won the seat for the National Party in 1989. He briefly served as a minister in the final months of the Borbidge coalition government in 1998.

Rowell retired in 2006, and was succeeded by Andrew Cripps. Cripps was re-elected in 2009, 2012 and 2015.

Cripps was defeated in 2017 by Katter’s Australian Party’s Nick Dametto, who came third with less than 21% of the primary vote, but won thanks to Labor and One Nation preferences. Dametto won re-election in 2020 with a doubling of his primary vote, and won a third term in 2024.

Candidates

Assessment
Dametto held Hinchinbrook by a substantial margin. This by-election will be an interesting test of how much of this margin is his personal vote, as opposed to general support for KAP. KAP would be favourites to win, but there isn’t much precedent for this kind of election.

2024 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Nick Dametto Katter’s Australian Party 15,351 46.4 +3.9
Annette Swaine Liberal National 9,331 28.2 +3.3
Ina Pryor Labor 4,639 14.0 -5.4
Ric Daubert One Nation 1,523 4.6 -2.5
Kevin Wheatley Legalise Cannabis 1,181 3.6 +3.6
Jon Kowski Greens 1,044 3.2 -0.3
Informal 1,175 3.4

2024 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Nick Dametto Katter’s Australian Party 20,889 63.2 +1.6
Annette Swaine Liberal National 12,180 36.8 +1.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Hinchinbrook have been divided into three areas: central, north and south. Each area aligns with one of the three local government areas in the seat. A majority of ordinary votes were cast in the south.

Katter’s Australian Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.3% in the north to 72.1% in the centre.

Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.6% in the centre to 15.7% in the south.

Voter group ALP prim KAP 2CP Total % of votes
South 15.7 62.6 6,497 19.6
Central 8.6 72.1 1,876 5.7
North 9.5 61.3 959 2.9
Pre-poll 13.5 64.0 17,782 53.8
Other votes 16.2 58.9 5,955 18.0

Election results in Hinchinbrook at the 2024 Queenslnad state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Katter’s Australian Party vs Liberal National Party) and primary votes for Katter’s Australian Party, the Liberal National Party and Labor.

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224 COMMENTS

  1. ONP seems to have a strong candidate, however I doubt they’ll campaign much. As strong as candidates can be, One Nation has very inconsistent on-ground campaigns, leaving almost everything up to the candidate – usually low income ‘battlers’ who don’t have the time to campaign heavily. This is a big electorate, and if the candidate lives in the very northern end of the seat (Cardwell), and the population is in the southern end of the seat (Townsville’s Northern Beaches), an almost 2 hour drive, then I can’t see them picking up much momentum.

    In my opinion, when One Nation candidates have strong on-ground campaigns (e.g. Cairns, Keppel and Gympie, where the respective candidates campaigned a lot), they get big swings. But when they have poorer on-ground campaigns (e.g. Waterford and Logan, especially in 2020) and run what are effectively ghost candidates, they get significant swings away from them.

  3. Just a guess, the LNP have finally turned pro in Qld, Chiesa should pick up Dametto’s personal vote [unless KAP or Labor can recruit a suitable candidate from Ingham], Dametto will win Townsville easily, KAP [and Labor] politically outmanouevered.

    @Gympie

    Let’s call this out for what it is: David Crisafulli has made a captain’s pick and chosen a mate. If Labor does this, they’re slammed for not having pre-selections. If the LNP do it, it’s portrayed as a master stroke. It was reported in the Australian, it was alleged that Wayde Chiesa was the finance chief at a company that spectacularly crashed a decade ago. I’m not suggesting any wrongdoing by Chiesa, but you can’t say that this choice doesn’t come without some baggage for the LNP.

  4. It’s not a master stroke captains pick is just a jobs for mates type of deal. Preselction is the only legitimate way of getting the best candidate. It cost the libs Aston in the by election and Gilmore in 2019. And one could arupgue Gilmore ever since.

  5. Very surprised a date hasn’t been announced.

    Surely a December 6 or 13 date

    Awaiting over the Christmas New Year and January break seems poor form for representation.

  7. It’s been reported in the Courier Mail the LNP are running hard on Katter candidate Mark Molachino is a former member of the Labor party. A flyer they even put out suggested Molachino was a real risk of rejoining the Labor party after the election. Even the Courier Mail has thought this was overreach labelling it bizarre.

    The LNP do have there own vulnerability running this attack though. Child Safety state minster Amanda Camm was a canidate for Katter Australia Party in Whitsundays in 2012. Jarrod Bleijie was on the defensive when it was brought up about the double standards by the LNP in the media.

  8. LNP is butthurt because apparently they approached Molachino first, and he bugged off. It is not as if KAP and ON aren’t full of people who were in one of the two major parties in their recent past. Labor will run dead and preference KAP. Once the count is released, it will be a full-on Trump-style rigging. /s

  9. I don’t see the problem people switching parties unless they only run for one party to get elected and join another, but I also don’t see the problem with campaigning on it given it’s something that’s documented and known to the public.

  10. Known to the public is different from known to the voters. Libs are trying to make that an issue tying him to labor. Most voters don’t know what happens in the back seems unless they tell people. That what dirt units are for they make facts that are there in the background an core issue.

  15. Katter brought it up in Federal Question Time today, he was pretty het up about it.
    The issue seems to be Molachino being a former Labor man, that won’t fly with voters in the canelands.
    Of course the Courier-Mail are going to pooh pooh the idea he would rejoin the Labor Party if he won, but he would certainly vote to install the Labor Party if Crisafulli doesn’t win a majority in 2028.

  16. He would be part of the Katter Party, and it’s likely they’d reinstall Crisafulli as Premier in 2028 if the numbers stack up for the LNP.

    As for whether there’d be local backlash, I tend to look at Liz Cunningham in Gladstone; she singlehandedly installed Rob Borbidge as Premier in 1996, but she barely faced repercussions for it, despite Gladstone being quite hostile to the LNP.

  17. Katter’s Party guaranteed Palaczszuk Confidence and Supply in 2015, enabling a minority Labor Government.
    Cunningham was from Calliope, a farming and grazing area, not Gladstone.
    What happened in 1992 was Lab0or Member for Gladstone Bill Prest called Bob Katter a gin jockey on the floor of the Qld Parliament.
    Labor denied Prest preselection for the 1992 State Election, which wasn’t real popular in Gladstone and Cunningham stood as an independent, taking 10% off Labor and winning the seat in 1995.
    While off topic, this is a situation that’s happened before in safe Labor seats. After Bill Hayden retired in Oxley in 1989, local branches wanted David Hamill to succeed him, but Les Scott got the nod. Voters bided their time, and when Pauline Hanson lost Liberal endorsement, they voted her into Labor’s safest Qld seat.

  19. Firstly I’m gonna say there will be a swing to the lnp because of the obvious loss of personal vote. I don’t know how much the federal parties current standings are gonna way here. I expect One Nation to do reasonably well in the absence of katters personal vote. Though not enough to put do labor given the left vote of the greens. But it would be irrelevant as they would be knocked out next anyway. I’d expect anywhere from a 5-7% swing.

    Secondly in 2028 Robbie Katter probably won’t be leader as I expect him to take over bob katters federal seat assuming he retires.

    The lnp should hold onto govt regardless. They should have one better in Brisbane and won gaven and Bundaberg. Among others but the 11th hour abortion debate blunted their win. Once Crisafulli proves he doesn’t intend to touch abortion laws that should end that debate and not be an issue. If he does well he’s signing his own resignation. I can see them losing Rockhampton but others not so much. The redistribution should be somewhat favourable to them. Either way I can’t see Katters wanting Steven Miles as premier as opposed to David Crisafulli.

  20. Also I’d imagine James Ashby will give Keppel another run. Given the boundaries might be more favourable if it loses Rockhampton but probably not enough to beat the lnp into the 2cp vs labor. I believe it will probably be a lnp v onp contest which the lnp would easily win.

  23. Labor HTV is the first one registered. ALP’s order:
    1 ALP, 2 KAP, 3 GRN, 4 FFP, 5 LNP, 6 IND, 7 ONP

    Surprised FFP is recommended higher than LNP and ONP with ALP leanings. Makes sense with 2 KAP as they’d want one less LNP seat to deal with. Will be interesting to see what ONP finally registers.

  24. “Surprised FFP is recommended higher than LNP and ONP with ALP leanings. Makes sense with 2 KAP as they’d want one less LNP seat to deal with. Will be interesting to see what ONP finally registers.”

    @Politics_Obsessed

    Labor always put One Nation last. This isn’t a surprise at all. They have been doing it since One Nation was formed in the 90″s. And Labor has campaigned against the LNP for preferencing them in the past. And used it to great effect getting traction with the moderate voter particularly in South East Queensland.region.

    Labor have dealt with Family First in the past. The party did a senate preference deal with them in Victoria which backfired in 2004 electing Stephen Fielding at the expense of a Greens senator. They don’t deal with them often, but they are not the complete no go zone like One Nation is.

  25. Definitely in Labor’s interest for KAP to win this seat – gives them slightly more scope for forming government and deals a small blow to Crisafulli (or at least denies him a big win) if the LNP are blocked here

  28. Disagree – this seat hasn’t been a contest since 2017 and the KAP MP picked up a significant personal following, that’s gone now, Crisafulli is throwing around some of his personal capital to try and win this seat back because it’s absolutely winnable and perfectly conceivable that at least half of the 2024 KAP vote here was for the MP and the advantage he had of incumbency. Great example of this in effect was where the Mirani MP switched from ON to KAP and what do you know the vote followed him.

    The seat being empty means a whole lot more than the 2024 margin and the LNP know it

  31. Well, it was no help in 2024, appears Crisafulli is more of a Liberal than a National.
    Dametto looks to have a sizable personal vote. If he was on the outs with Katter, then it might be going elsewhere.
    You’d think he couldn’t hope to win Townsville Mayor as an Indie without doing a preference deal with either LNP or Labor?
    Still hard to see an LNP win, but if it did happen, then Labor and KAP federally might be in a bit of trouble in the North?

  32. Gympie, Labor is already at a low point for most of rural Queensland (Cairns being an exception due to it being a major tourist hub) and the overlapping federal seats of Herbert and Dawson are now secure/safe LNP seats.

    Kennedy might be a different story, as Bob Katter had a difficult 2013 election and if Katter retires in 2028 then the LNP would be competitive in the seat against a new KAP candidate (even if his son and Traeger MP Robbie Katter decides to contest).

  33. Why would Katter retire in 2028? Physically he seems okay, what else would he do with his time after spending 50 years in Parliament?
    LNP were on a wave in 2013 when he scraped in on Labor and Green preferences, his retirement would signal the end of KAP.

  34. Fair point Gympie, Katter being an eccentric/maverick figure will probably stay in office until he dies. Similar to other veteran members of the US Congress such as Senator John McCain.

  35. Bob Latter said before the 2022 election he probably had 2 more elections in him. He will probably hand over the reins to Robbie in 2028.

  37. Family First Party has also released their HTV (no real surprises here). Order is:
    1 FFP, 2 KAP, 3 ONP, 4 IND, 5 ALP, 6 LNP, 7 GRN

    Katters have also released their HTV. Interestingly, they’ve registered two, with the different being the back paged for target location projects. Order is the same on both cards, with an alternate for having LNP or ALP in 5th and 6th positions (they have been doing this split for most elections):
    1 KAP, 2 ONP, 3 FFP, 4 IND, 5 ALP/5 LNP, 6 LNP/6 ALP, 7 GRN

    No real surprises on the KAP HTV. Now to see if ONP reciprocates or goes LNP 2nd.

  38. Most likely ONP and KAP have done a preference swap.LNp will need a 40% primary if not higher to overcome the preference deals.

  39. How interesting that Family First put Labor above LNP. Must be pissed about no movement on abortion or euthanasia by the government. Still, not like they will get better under Labor.

  42. Unless the Katter candidate has a disaster of a campaign this should be an easy retain with the margin taking a small to moderate hit. With the Federal Coalition being in the state it’s in, and LNP voters moving to smaller right-wing parties like One Nation in protest, it’s hard to imagine this doesn’t have knock-on effects on this race.

  43. I doubt any Hinchinbrook voter is thinking of the federal sphere. Crisafulli is putting a lot of personal political capital into gaining this seat and adding another to his majority.

  44. I don’t think it will be an easy retain. Molachinos past as a labor member and the loss of the Damettos personal vote the LNP will give them a run for their money. I’d say it will <6%.

  45. People aren’t exactly hot on the LNP or Crisafulli in recent times either and there’s very little time or media space for this campaign to build salience. It’s not enough to call the Katter candidate a secret Labor operative, he needs to actively mess up. The anti-majors attitude here is quite embedded, voters need to be offered reasons to switch to the LNP against a generally cynical mood.

  46. @Real Talk Plus, even if they were, outer north-west Townsville is quite literally the most conservative urban area in the country based on 2025 election results. Albeit a fair bit is Phil’s personal vote

  47. @Scart it says a lot about how far to the right Townsville has swung now that Herbert is more right leaning than Groom (which is based on Toowoomba).

  48. @Adda for the Katter candidate to lose, he’d have to actively associate with Labor.

    If you remember back to 2013, Bob Katter was seen as being closely aligned to an unpopular Labor government, and he barely held on.

    There’s still plenty of time for the new guy to disavow his former Labor ties.

  49. Agreed it will be a KAP but the circumstances will push people to the LNP. Also the polls aren’t indicate of how regional qld feels just as qld as a whole feels. Hopefully there will be some polling here

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