LNP 6.6%
Incumbent MP
Michelle Landry, since 2013.
Geography
Central Queensland. Capricornia covers the Queensland coast from Rockhampton to just south of Mackay.
History
Capricornia is an original federation electorate. After changing between a number of parties in early decades, the seat was held by the ALP for most of the last half-century, with the exception of two wins by the Country/National Party at particular low-points for the ALP, before the LNP won in 2013.
The seat was first won in 1901 by independent candidate Alexander Paterson. Paterson didn’t run for re-election in 1903, and was succeeded by the ALP’s David Thompson.
Thomson lost in 1906 to the Anti-Socialist Party’s Edward Archer. Archer too was defeated after one term, losing in 1910 to the ALP’s William Higgs.
Higgs was a former Senator for Queensland, who held Capricornia for the next decade. He served as Treasurer in Billy Hughes’ government from 1915 to 1916, resigning over Hughes’ support for conscription. Ironically he later left the ALP in 1920 and ended up in Hughes’ Nationalist Party. He failed to win re-election as a Nationalist in 1922, losing to the ALP’s Frank Forde.
Forde was the state MP for Rockhampton, and rose quickly in the federal Labor ranks. He served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, being promoted to cabinet in the final days of the government in 1931. Forde became Deputy Leader of the ALP in 1932.
Forde contested the leadership of the party in 1935, losing by one vote to John Curtin, having lost support due to his support for Scullin’s economic policies. He served as Minister for the Army during the Second World War on the election of the Curtin government.
Forde became Prime Minister in July 1945 upon the death of John Curtin, and served eight days before losing a leadership ballot to Ben Chifley. He served as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence in the aftermath of the Second World War, until he lost Capricornia at the 1946 election, despite the ALP winning a comfortable victory.
Capricornia was won in 1946 by the Liberal Party’s Charles Davidson. Davidson moved to the new seat of Dawson in 1949, and went on to serve as a minister in the Menzies government before retiring in 1963.
Davidson was succeeded in Capricornia in 1949 by Henry Pearce, also from the Liberal Party. Pearce held Capricornia for twelve years, losing in 1961 to the ALP’s George Gray.
Gray held the seat until his death in 1967, and the ensuing by-election was won by Doug Everingham. He served as Minister for Health in the Whitlam government, but lost Capricornia in 1975 to Colin Carige of the National Country Party, winning it back in 1977. Everingham then managed to hold the seat until his retirement in 1984.
He was succeeded in 1984 by Keith Wright, who had been the Labor leader in the Queensland parliament since 1982 and member for Rockhampton since 1969. Wright held Capricornia until 1993, when he was charged with rape, leading to him losing his ALP endorsement. He contested Capricornia as an independent, but lost to ALP candidate Marjorie Henzell.
Henzell held the seat for one term, losing to National candidate Paul Marek in 1996. Marek also held the seat for one term, losing to the ALP’s Kirsten Livermore in 1998. Livermore was re-elected in Capricornia in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010.
Livermore retired in 2013, and the LNP’s Michelle Landry won the seat with a 4.5% swing.
Landry was re-elected in 2016 by a slim 0.6% margin. This seat was the most marginal Coalition seat in the country, thus giving the government its slim majority. Landry won a third term in 2019 with a massive swing, giving her a margin of over 12%, and won comfortable re-election again in 2022.
Assessment
Capricornia is a reasonably safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Landry | Liberal National | 35,613 | 39.4 | -1.2 |
| Russell Robertson | Labor | 25,330 | 28.1 | +4.3 |
| Kylee Stanton | One Nation | 13,179 | 14.6 | -2.4 |
| Mick Jones | Greens | 5,302 | 5.9 | +1.0 |
| Nathan Luke Harding | United Australia | 3,555 | 3.9 | +0.3 |
| Ken Murray | Independent | 3,048 | 3.4 | +0.9 |
| Zteven Whitty | Great Australian Party | 1,747 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Steve Murphy | Liberal Democrats | 1,392 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Paula Ganfield | Informed Medical Options | 1,126 | 1.2 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 5,904 | 6.1 | -0.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Landry | Liberal National | 51,096 | 56.6 | -5.8 |
| Russell Robertson | Labor | 39,196 | 43.4 | +5.8 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths in the Isaac Regional Council area have been grouped together. This area has the smallest population but covers the largest areas. A majority of voters live in the Rockhampton council area. Booths in this area have been split between those in the Rockhampton urban areas itself and those outside of it. Booths in the Mackay and Whitsunday areas have been grouped as “North”.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.1% in Rockhampton to 61% in the north.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.8% in Rockhampton to 22.7% in the north.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Rockhampton | 12.8 | 50.1 | 14,132 | 15.7 |
| North | 22.7 | 61.0 | 9,464 | 10.5 |
| Livingstone | 14.2 | 57.1 | 7,261 | 8.0 |
| Isaacs | 21.8 | 52.8 | 2,663 | 2.9 |
| Pre-poll | 13.2 | 56.3 | 40,613 | 45.0 |
| Other votes | 14.0 | 60.7 | 16,159 | 17.9 |
Election results in Capricornia at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and One Nation.
I forgot to add current Mp Michelle Landry is expected to retire at the next election it stated in the Australian.
Matt Canavan contesting for Capricornia? That would be a big risk for him to give up his safe senate seat unless he loses preselection for the 1st or 2nd spot on the LNP ticket. I thought James Ashby would be the front runner to lead the One Nation senate ticket after Hanson retires.
Canavan is basically the mascot of the Nationals’ push to dump net zero, I doubt he loses preselection in the Senate.
If he contests the House as opposed to the Senate he’d do so out of his own volition.
Caravan is a mavrick is a household name he’d have no issue winning a house seat. Also safe senate spots should be for MPs to cut their teeth on. Capricornia is more or less a safe lnp seat. Wasting canavan on a safe senate spot is pointless. The only reason they do so for Jacinta price is because their are no safe seats in the nT
Canavan was weak at #2 on the ticket in 2022, leading to Amanda Stoker being defeated at #3.
Capricornia certainly isn’ a safe LNP [National Party] seat. Labor’s member retired at the 2013 election, it picked a weak candidate and Michelle Landry won at her second try and has defended it 4 times
Stil regional qld is a safe bastion for the lnp. And Brisbane for labor
@Gympie I don’t think people really care about who’s actually on the Senate ticket (unless those people vote BTL or are Lambie supporters). The 2019 result in Queensland was dreadful for Labor and I don’t think they’ll ever slip so badly as winning just one Senate seat in a state again. 2022 saw a largely status quo result; 3 Left senators, 3 right senators.
@John rural Queensland has trended well to the right. In 2007 Labor held Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn, and narrowly lost Hinkler, all seats they weren’t competitive in even in a doomsday scenario for the Coalition.
@ CJ
The creation of Flynn made Hinkler stronger for LNP by removing Gladstone. Before the creation of Flynn, Hinkler voted to the left of the statewide vote since 2007 it always voted to the Right.
The Right ward shift of the seats you mentioned is the reason that apart from Bowman all Brisbane seats voted to the left of the state in 2025 (including Longman narrowly lost)
The qld split was almost repeated at the state election
I agree with Gympie, the LNP only held this seat by 0.8% in 2016. Classifying this as a safe seat is a case of poetic license gone mad. And can’t be compared to the seats the LNP hold in western Queensland, the Sunshine Coast, or the Gold Coast. I will acknowledge John’s point, though. The tide has gone out for Labor in the regions based on the state and federal election results at the moment.
I don’t agree with Matt Canavan, but in some ways, his candidacy makes sense here for the LNP. He’s been an outspoken advocate for the coal industry. That position is popular in Capricornia; the election result in 2019 showed where the public sided after Bob Brown took a convoy through Rockhampton. He would also be ambitious for the National party leadership, and those prospects would be heightened by securing a seat in the House of Representatives. But if the tide comes in for Labor in the regions, then Capricornia is vulnerable, which would give Canavan pause for standing. Capricornia was a mainstay through previous Labor governments and held it in opposition from 1998 – 2007.
Canavan and George Christensen talked up a HELE coal station for Collinsville, Morrison tipped a few million in for a study, it went nowhere.
Michelle Landry’s personal vote in the seat won’t translate to Canavan, and without that it’s a fairly safe Labor gain.
All the other 5 National Party seats in Qld are held by locals. Canavan is a blow in, originally from Slacks Creek, about 650 ks south of Rocky.
The tide has gone out for Labor in regional Queensland?
They gained Leichhardt!
The tide has gone out for Labor in regional Queensland?
They gained Leichhardt!
@Real Talk
In North and Central Queensland it has. Leichardt, being based in far north Queensland, is the exception to the rule. Warren Entsch was a popular moderate Liberal member, not recontesting definitely hurt the LNP’s chances. And the replacement candidate was not the wisest choice, who was an outspoken Trump enthusiast and had some pretty controversial views. I’m only speculating, but in Capricornia and Dawson, the LNP’s support for mining gets more traction with the public. Leichhardt is a different type of seat where Cairns relies on tourism, and protecting the environment is a priority with the Great Barrier Reef; the net-zero target probably gets more traction for Labor there.
Cairns has been a strong Labor town for 120 years. Entsch lived there all his life, plus he was popular in the Indigenous communities of the Cape and Torres Strait.
That kind of support often isn’t transferrable in non Metropolitan Qld.
The Trump thing was funny though. By the time the Liberal Party finally realised they needed to be a million miles away from the guy, it was too late.
Cairns is the odd one out among regional Queensland cities. It has a very different economy. I would be reluctant to extrapolate from Leichhardt much about Labor’s prospects elsewhere in Queensland.
Comparisons to 2016 in Regional QLD are a bit misplaced I think, at that time there was also a big swing back to Labor in the 2015 state election and Turnbull more or less got more popular in small L Liberal areas towards city centres as opposed to the trend beginning in 2019 where their support was stronger in outer suburbs and provincial/regional seats.
At the state level neither Mackay or Rockhampton flipped blue in the massive 2012 landslide but both have done so in 2024 in a much less comprehensive LNP victory. This is a safe Coalition seat, it now votes 10% to the right of the nation at large having once been a seat Labor could comfortably hold throughout the Howard years (I don’t know the figures on these boundaries exactly but still). There’s no way Labor would bother to inject resources to campaign here either while they have 94 other seats to defend and several more metro seats with more favourable trends and margins to have a go at if they really want.
Cairns and Bundaberg are not really part of the same trend as they are more reliant on tree-changers, retirees, tourism and that sort of thing which attracts more progressive residents whilst places like Mackay, Townsville, Rocky and Gladstone very much built of primary industry and those places have trended right.
Leichhardt isn’t what you’d describe as regional Queensland it’s more far north / remote Queensland. It has a large aboriginal tsi population that labor can easily tap. It’s a wildcard seat. We haven’t seen a fair contest in terms of candidates on equal footing in 30+ years. 2025 was shaping to break that rule but the disaster of an lnp campaign and trump (not helped by his enthusiast being on the ballot) were major factors in this seat flipping.
Given the deficits in North Queensland this east will probably shed Mackay and whisunday at very least.
Michelle Landry has never won the Rockhampton vote, despite being at least a 3rd generation Rockhamptonite and the Labor candidate being a coalfields Union Organiser twice.
LNP won Rocky and Keppel at the State Election because the Labor Member for Rocky had had enough and called it quits and the Labor Member for Keppel was so unpopular in Yeppoon she closed her office there.
The 2024 non Metro result was comparable but opposite to the 2012 Brisbane result in that LNP won nearly all the Brisbane seats in 2012 and Labor was left with 1 brisbane seat, 1 Logan seat. 1 Ipswich seat, Bundy, Rocky, Mackay and Cairns.
In 2024 Labor saved most of the Metro, but lost everything outside that bar Bundy, Gladstone and Cairns.
No way LNP are they doing that again, and they’ve only got a 6 seat buffer, so most likely outcome is Labor minority supported by Katterites, Greens and Independents.
Doubtful Katters will never work with the greens. The lnp will win Bundaberg in 2028 and labor Rockhampton. LNP will probably pickup gaven, and the new Caboolture seat. Ipswich west will be close. Cook could be a katter win. Most govts get second term unless they are deeply unpopular. And if they can deliver the olympics they should get a 3rd. Do you really think people are gonna come crawling back to Steven Miles? The lnp should have won a more sizeable moajority but Katter revived the abortion debate at the 11th hour in order to stifle their win and try and force them into a minority with his party.
My memory of events just prior to the 2024 poll was that LNP had secured a Katter preference exchange in Barron River, Mulgrave, Thuringowra and Mundingburra and at 5 minutes to midnight Katter raised abortion on demand as an issue.
Classic attempted political double cross, because if that hadda gotten traction, KAP woulda leapfrogged LNP into the final 2 with Labor in those seats and won on LNP preferences.
Hundreds and hundreds of words justifying why Cairns is not a regional city. El oh el. Never change, my friends.
Let’s ignore geographical realities and 1600 kilometres of distance to the south-east. The Cairns Esplanade is the new South Bank! Cooktown and Caboolture are virtually indistinguishable! Let’s do anything other than give Labor even a modicum of credit for winning a regional seat, lest it diminishes or contradicts our own world view for even a moment. Alas.
I will acknowledge Labor are some considerable distance – physiologically and psephologically – from winning Herbert, Flynn, Capricornia or Flynn again anytime soon.
(I meant to add Dawson to that list at the end, not Flynn twice. Anyhow.)
Labor would be favourites to regain Capricornia if Michelle Landry retires, they’re always a chance in Dawson and Flynn and Herbert is one of the very few seats lost by the LNP in 2016 that they’ve regained and still hold.
Possibly the only one?
Defence personnel an important factor in that seat, Albanese Government decision to put a time limit on appeals over medals and awards hasn’t gone down well.
Gympie the redistribution will probably come into play as well.if memory serves my basic draft has capricornia becoming rockhampton (region council) central Highlands and banana shire
In a blog post a few months ago, Ben Raue mentioned that Capricornia has had the biggest shift to the right (more favourable to the LNP than the country) since 2007. In 2025, Labor couldn’t replicate its success in regional QLD as it did in 2007. Leichhardt is an exception, both times as Warren Entsch didn’t recontest.
@Gympie
I don’t think Labor would be the favourites if Michelle Landry retires and if James Ashby runs for One Nation (as Political Nightwatchman alluded to). Labor might be on the defensive given the number of marginal SEQ seats and would spend their resources there.
@Political Nightwatchman
“I still don’t think Ashby will make two final party preferred vote. There were alot over inflated predictions in Keppel last state election which never translated for Ashby. ”
I agree. There was hype and a lot of resources thrown at Keppel in 2024 but Ashby didn’t even make the final two.
@votante my version of Keppel in the qld redistribution would be highly favourable to Ashby he would probably make the count against the lnp but would lose as labor and greens would preference the lnp.
If Ashby could push the lnp out and we’re in a contest with labor he could very well win.
@John I like your thinking with your Capricornia proposal. My draft removes the remainder of the Mackay LGA and adds the rest of Rockhampton LGA, and covers as far west as Longreach (following the Capricorn Highway, and actually having the seat’s namesake run through the electorate). It means Flynn gets a really ugly boundary going into Somerset and Woodford but it’s the only way I can protect Hinkler or Wide Bay from abolition. I’ve gone for a more nips and tucks approach for the redistribution, assuming Queensland stays stagnant at 30 seats.
If a new seat is created, it’ll be based around Somerset and the Maroochy/Noosa hinterlands, however I’ll still seek to reunite Rockhampton LGA in Capricornia.
Cj my Hinkley remains unchanged. Flynn moves down into wide bay as far as Gympie and becomes the new Wide Bay to preserve the federation name. Wide Bay is renamed Irwin and moves into the Sunshine Coast. My Somerset is then moved into Longman.
There have been commentaries here about Labor being a chance in Dawson. Since 1949, except when Rex Patterson won a by election in 1966, built up a personal vote that got whittled back to negative by 1975, Labor have only won the seat in 2007 when Deanne Kelly made a goose of herself. It is a seat with deep non Labor roots.
If Dawson were to pickup the remainder of Mackay and Whitsundays and lose Townsville its margin probably wouldn’t change much
@Redistributed I frankly don’t know why there was talk of Labor picking it up in 2019, when George Christensen had survived both his Manila scandals and having an inner-city centrist as his leader in 2016.
I frankly don’t know why there was talk of Labor picking it up in 2019, when George Christensen had survived both his Manila scandals and having an inner-city centrist as his leader in 2016.
@SCart
George Christensen hadn’t really ‘survived’ the scandal it came to light before the 2019 federal election. These were Christensen’s frequent trips to Manila. And because his seat was in striking range of 3.4%, there was speculation that the scandal would cost him his seat. However, in the book Party Animals, apparently, in Labor circles, they were not surprised that it didn’t amount to anything. The party’s internal polling and research showed the electorate didn’t care, and Christensen was easily re-elected.
John – if Hinkler stays the same, Flynn takes Gympie becoming Wide Bay and the old Wide Bay moves into the Sunny Coast to become Irwin, then what did you do with Maryborough?
Put Maryborough Bundaberg and Hervey Bay together in the one srat
Gladstone and Gympie in the same seat?
Mick – won’t work – Hinkler is over quota now and parts of Bundaberg are not even in Hinkler – are in Flynn.
The other electorate that is not being discussed here is Maranoa. Well under quota but includes Kingaroy and the South Burnett that have more synergies with coastal seats than inland. Could be the top up for Flynn and / or Wide Bay. Then would have to top up Maranoa ….
Isn’t Wright projected to be way over quota by 2028?
@Redistributed push Maranoa into what is the state electorate of Condamine (ie, western part of Groom), and shuffle Groom so it now includes Lockyer Valley and Toowoomba.
Problem Solved.
@Redistributed I think part of why people overestimate Labor’s chances in Dawson is because Mackay was a Labor stronghold.
Key word, “was”. It’s now a safe LNP seat at the state level. Labor won’t win Dawson or Mackay for the foreseeable future.
I have toyed with idea of moving Mount Isa and everything west of Charters Towers out of Kennedy into Maranoa. Would allow Kennedy to gain coastal votes and move Dawson out of Townsville – Kennedy taking the slack. Big problem would be some strange bedfellows like Mareeba in same seat as Townsville and Maranoa would be a beast for any MP to service.
Dawson can still move out of Townsville without having to completely redraw Kennedy. As long as Leichhardt gains Bentley Park from Kennedy, and Kennedy moves into the outer parts of Townsville in the west of Herbert, Dawson can be cut out of Townsville and move southeast into the rest of Mackay LGA to compensate.
I don’t really want to have Kennedy touch the South Australian border, and nor do I want two seats touching both the Pacific Ocean and the Northern Territory.
On his website, Katter has offices in Innisfail, Mareeba and Mt Isa, and his Principal Office is in Innisfail, 87 kms south of Cairns.
So I guess it doesn’t matter how big the electorate is when it’s determined on voter registration, just open another Electoral office.
Bottom line is his principal office is in the area where most of the voters are.
Perhaps it might be more coherent if Maranoa, which is sparsely polulated, went from the New South Wales border to the Gulf and had, say, 10 [or more] Electoral offices spread from Goondiwindi to Normanton.
Maranoa gain ls regional Toowoomba from Groom and the rest of kimgaroy from flynn
@John, think more likely to gain Somerset from Blair, given the general movement of electorates is south-east towards the growth corridor around Ipswich / Logan
Wright needs to lose lockyer valley and the only sensible place to put it is in Groom. There is also a growth corridor on the sunshine coast/moreton bay.