To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
A possible expansion of parliament could result in a seat based almost entirely around the Upper Hunter and lower New England Tablelands in such a fashion that Stuart Bonds could probably win
For now though as this seat continues to expand in the Lake Macquarie area it gets safer and safer for Labor with Cessnock a reliably Labor town too
Like other regional, blue-collar, traditionally Labor-voting areas, Hunter is trending towards the Coalition and One Nation. Labor’s 2PP in Hunter used to be streets ahead of the Labor’s statewide 2PP.
Generally in the Hunter, the more west you go, the stronger it is for the Nationals and One Nation. Singleton LGA is the worst for Labor. It also happens to have more coal miners than the rest of the electorate. I think Dan Repacholi’s personal vote, Labor’s competitiveness in Lake Macquarie and vote splitting on the right would all be of help to Labor.
Hunter is probably the only seat in the country where the Coalition’s dumping of net zero could help them.
Maybe Paterson as well but Libs have won Paterson before and won it in 2013 on current boundaries so not exactly new territory. Maybe Whitlam as well due to offshore windfarm issue etc
For each seat that they won in 2013 but will not win again they need to win 1 more in lieu
So if they dont win Warringah they need to be prepared to win Hunter
If they dont win Boothby which is Tealish they need to be prepared to Whitlam
If they dont win Reid need to be prepared to win McEwan etc. (This is quite realistic)
@ Votante
This is one of the areas where Climate Wars have helped Coalition and weaked the seat for Labor compared to the past other examples will be
1. Herbert
2. Whitlam
3. Capricornia
4. Flynn
5. Dawson
The issue is that Climate wars have weakened the Coalition if the following seats
1. Kooyong
2. Wentworth
3. Bradfield
4. Mackellar
5. Warringah
6. Curtin
7. Ryan
8. Brisbane
9. Boothby
10. Sturt
11. Goldstein
12. Mayo
13. Macnamara (came close to winning in 2016)
14. Griffith (came close to winning in 2016)
One step forward, three steps back it seems.
Can maybe add Richmond to that list too, as it came close to being won by the Nats in 2013 and 2016.
The dumping of net zero could boost the Nats and put them back into the final two. One Nation has a strong, repeat candidate last election.
@Nimalan, yes, the 2019 election was a prime example. The Adani Carmichael coal mine was a hot topic and was like the poster child for coal mining. There were anti-Labor backlashes in the Hunter and in regional QLD.
If Higgins and North Sydney existed or were resurrected in an expansion of parliament i will add it to the list.
Menzies and Chisholm, maybe McEwen due to the importance of climate to many people in the Macedon ranges.
i agree with Menzies, Chisholm. McEwen also has parts of Nilumbik which is enviromentalist.
On current boundaries i can add Bennelong instead of North Sydney to the list.
Iam not sure about Swan (South Perth is tealish) and Robertson (a lot of WFH professionals are moving there) yet
Maybe even Corangamite which has a lot of sea changers.
Dumping net zero won’t help anywhere. Even in rural and mining seats people want climate action to some extent. Yes there were Labor voters who switched but they’ve all well and truly done that by now.
People want climate action but aren’t willing to pay for it. How many of the people calling for climate action do you think pay for their carbon offset on their flights?
Many people want services like Bulk Billing visits to Doctor but dont want to pay for it. How many people do you think will pay tax it was voluntary? I also like my rubbish collected by my local council if council rates were voluntary i may not pay it.
That’s beside the point. Those things are compulsory. You dont dont get healthcare if you dont pay for it. Your rubbish is already paid for so pointless…. people say they want to save the environment but won’t pay for it. So why would they vote for a government who wants you to pay increased power prices to get it? How many people loved the carbon tax because it helped the environment? How many people voted to remove the government because they wanted cheaper bills? How many people will vote for liberal government if it means we’re not gonna spend endless billions chasing a pipe dream that won’t make one bit of difference on global emissions. It might be the number issue on the north shore of sydney or the places in Toorak where they are so posh they have names oj their houses instead of numbers. But the reality is the working citizens of this country dont won’t token gestures they want the cheapest reliable electricity.
Also those things their aren’t alternatives.
I wonder if One Nation replaced the Coalition as the second largest party, what would had the TPP look like as in Hunter which as the only ALP vs ONP TPP, 83% of National Voters preferenced One Nation over Labor
https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionPage-31496-126.htm
What’s the question