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This seat is one of the lowest hanging fruit for the Libs to pick up. Presumably if Wolahan contests again in 2028 it will one of the interesting seats to watch. Demographically similar seats swung big to Labor and Dutton would be immensely hated in a seat like this so it is a good result for the Libs to significantly blunt the swing. The large and rapidly growing Chinese community in this seat will be the key for the Libs to win back the seat. That being said much of the electorate has never been represented by Labor before so if they put some proper effort in sandbagging and the Libs continue alienating ethnic Chinese voters then Labor could dig in and hold on. Ng will be praying that Hastie replaces Ley and takes the Libs to the polls. Even if the Libs win this seat back, the days of margins from the Kevin Andrews days are over.
That due to the blundaries shifting into more favourable labor territory. Wolahan would have held on 2022 boundaries. There a below average swing here. If the liberals didnt crash and burn Wolahan probably would have held on.
This was probably the most disastrous results on the night as Keith Wolahan was touted as a future leader. The favourable retributions to Labor and Dutton be poison throughout this area was what contributed to Keith Wolahan losing here. If Keith Wolahan doesn’t run here in 2028 then Labor will definitely hold but he decides to run then this seat could go either way.
Agree Darth and Space fish – Keith Wolahan is definitely seen as a future leader and like many moderate candidates from the Liberal Party, he managed to minimise the anti LNP swing relative to the national and statewide average. He should be favoured to win in 2028 should he choose to run unless the Coalition fail to recover and have another bad election.
I think Wolahan will recontest and retake this seat. Even a small recovery to the Liberals will be enough to win here.
I’m not convinced that it’ll be so easy for the Liberals to win this back. The boundaries of Menzies are more favourable to Labor than they have ever been. Wolahan, despite his appeal and popularity, could not hold this while he was the incumbent. It will be harder to win it back when he’s not the incumbent, and after a term of Ng building his own reputation.
Nicholas but he almost did despite a very bad day for the liberals. In 2028 we will likely still have a state labor govt as well as any problems albo accrues by the.
Gabriel Ng seems like a good fit for this seat given his half-Singaporean heritage and he seems like a nice guy. If he and Matt Gregg next door could build their profile like Mary Doyle has in Aston then I don’t see how the ALP can lose this or Deakin barring an absolute landslide for the Coalition.
Also Box Hill/Burwood is densifying and densifying fast. There’ll be more people living in Menzies in 2028 as renters and that is a left-skewing vote which won’t help the Liberals.
A wild card factor is whether the Liberals can rebuild their eastern Melbourne base and reconnect with CALD communities. Kooyong, Menzies and Aston were long-time Liberal heartland seats until 2022.
The breakdown of relations between the Liberals and CALD communities, especially ethnic Chinese, was cited as a reason for the Coalition’s loss of seats in eastern Melbourne in 2022 and 2025. I’m not sure if things have changed since now that Morrison and Dutton are out of the picture.
As Box Hill is becoming another CBD and densifying, there’ll be more young professionals and renters, making it more challenging for the Liberals.
As for Keith Wolahan, if he runs in 2028, he could give Labor a run for their money. I thought it was noble of him to appear on ABC’s Insiders the morning after the 2025 election.
Gabriel Ng is actively door knocking throughout the community so the Liberals are going to have a serious fight on their hands, the Liberals abandoning net zero will make it even harder for them to win back Menzies, Deakin, Chisholm, Kooyong and hold onto Goldstein. Like all the comments have said above the area this seat covers has gone under significant densification which doesn’t usually benefit the Liberals.