Hinchinbrook by-election, 2025

id say the lnp will want to hold the by election asap to capatilise on positivie support for the govt. thought id say KAP should retain. it although on a rediced margin

Any news on who KAP is running?

This could be the last time Hnichinbrook is contested.

There’s report sthe Townsville deputy mayor has shown interest

Is the vibe of KAP being on the way out real on the ground? They seem a bit spent, could definitely see the LNP surging here, KAP primary collapsing and Labor not contesting to prop up KAP with preferences, LNP gain for mine, but no idea how things look on the ground

a by election can be called within about 4 weeks or the writ being issued i think. it might be 6. itd be crazy to have it December-February.

@John isnt she running for Townsville mayor?

Hinchinbrook shire has 3 LNP members so id assume one of them will run. Maybe Andrew cripps as hes deputy mayor. Or Annette swaine could try again?

It’s been reported Andrew Cripps is interested in standing in the bye-election for the LNP. Cripps won’t get a better chance of reclaiming his old seat of Hinchinbrook. If Nick Dametto were recontesting for KAP at the state next election, the chances of LNP reclaiming this seat are zero. However, this doesn’t make the LNP favourites in this contest either, due to the public not usually favouring the incumbent government in bye-elections.

The Beattie government did buck the trend and reclaimed the seat of Mulgrave in a bye-election in 1998. But their win gets further complicated by the fact that the voting system was optional preferential voting at the time, and they wouldn’t have won if they had the current voting system of compulsory preferential voting in place.

This contest will be interesting.

Hypothetically if Dametto was unsuccessful in the mayoralty he could run again in Hinchinbrook, IF there was enough of a gap between the Townsville mayoral declaration and the closing of nominations for the State byelection. Given that he’s resigned from KAP as well I’m not sure whether KAP would welcome him back, especially since he was the reason for the byelection.

The Townsville Mayoral postal vote is set for November 15, with 10 days to return ballots. So technically all of the candidates are still candidates until the declaration and the ECQ could declare a result as early as November 26.

The close of nominations in 2024 was 18 days prior to the election date and 7 days after the notice of election. So if the notice of the byelection was any earlier than November 19 for a December 8 election then Dametto wouldn’t be able to stand again for the state seat.

My guess is that the government will try and get the by-election out of the way by the beginning of December at the latest, so that would mean an announcement in late October/early November.

At the last Council election there were 141,424 voters enrolled for the city. The bits of Hinchinbrook that are part of Townsville currently amounts to 27,790 eligible voters, the numbers outside are 11,713.

Hes handed in his membership. I doubt he will welcomed back and if kap retain. The seat i can’t see the sitting member going quietly. Laments seems committed to the mayoralty and if he wins he will probably sitting thee for a while. He doesn’t seem like someone who will just sit around waiting for the next election.

If Dametto loses the Townsville mayoral it would be a bad look for him to try and regain the state seat. Regardless of whether the KAP would take him back. They might announce a candidate by then or they might hedge. It depends on if the LNP try to make a big play. It’s risky for KAP and Dametto to try and play musical chairs the voters would pick up on it. A fresh candidate I would expect to be announced before the Townsville election. I agree with Mark that the state will not run concurrent elections but not due any favours for KAP with the calendar. I would tend to think that this means KAP are favoured in the by unless something really screwy happens.

@Craig The line I’d use for the LNP candidate 🙂 is
1. Hinchinbrook deserves its voice in Parliament and it shouldn’t be deprived of it;
2. That should happen as quickly as possible;
3. If you want crime to continue to be a priority then make sure Hinchinbrook has a seat at the table.

I can’t see the ALP or the other parties being a factor except for where their preferences go – at the last election KAP had a definite lead over the LNP from all minor parties. I guess we’re going to find out what Dametto’s personal vote is worth.

Also, it’s pretty much impossible to have a State and Mayoral election on the same day. The process for a Mayoral all-postal vote has been done and s.98 of the Queensland Electoral Act 1992 doesn’t permit a postal-only process for State elections. Theoretically they could ask the ECQ to postpone the Mayoral vote but that just makes the whole thing really untidy.

My bet would be on Dametto picking up the mayoralty and the LNP picking up Hinchinbrook. I have no idea how the redistribution is going to affect Hinchinbrook at the next election though.

Craig i imagine he will be unable to run as i thi k the lnp govt 2ill announce a date as soon as he vacates the seat.

Mark i doubt there will be enough time is the minimum time is 6 weeks then novenmber 14th will be impossible if it’s 4 then they can do it by then. I can’t see LNP winning the by election KAP is on a comfortable 13% margin and that’s the same as Hill and Traegar

@John Dametto has already announced his resignation from Parliament which also requires that he submit it to the Speaker in writing. The resignation takes effect from the moment the Speaker receives it (it’s a little more complex if they are contesting a Federal seat, but that doesn’t apply here). That’s under s.75 of the Parliament of Queensland Act 2001.

On September 30 the local newspaper, Hinchinbrook Life, had a few quotes – “The Local Government by-election is expected to be officially announced this week. Once the date is confirmed, Dametto will submit his formal resignation from the Queensland Parliament by written notice to the Clerk of the Legislative Assembly. A by-election for the seat of Hinchinbrook will also be announced in the coming weeks.”

That’s a little incorrect, but never mind…

However he may have notified the Speaker but not done so in writing. There’s no requirement that he not be both a sitting state Member AND a notional candidate for the mayoralty, just that he has to resign from the State position before he nominates. S.26 on eligibility is so confusing they had to add an explanation – “A person who is a member of the Legislative Assembly may nominate as a candidate for election as a councillor but must resign on becoming a candidate.”

Since we’re between sitting weeks, there’s no real urgency until the next sitting of Parliament on October 14. And his resignation isn’t listed on the current Notice Paper (yet), so who knows.

Yes I’m aware of that he will likely hand in his resignation on Tuesday then head straight over to Townsville town hall to formerly nominate

When do we think this will be held? Before or after Christmas?

I think before if Jamestown resigns on Tuesday the can hold it mid to late november

I disagree that the KAP margin makes this a particularly difficult LNP pick-up necessarily. Once KAP or PHON get an MP in the voters tend to lock in behind them so I can foresee this now becoming a 3-way race with the PHON brand performing well too. The argument about government’s usually underperforming in by-elections might not hold as much water in a non-classic contest such as this.

Labor probably doesn’t run here I’m thinking, if pressed I’d say LNP just needs to get about 35%+ primary and then leakage between PHON and KAP probably keeps them in front. If Labor don’t run where does their vote go?

Maxim the lnp will gain ground because the govt is relatively popular. However with preferences from labor who I think will run and the greens along with onp i reckon KAP will hold. I cant see this being anything other then a KAP v LNP seat. KAP retain with 7% swing to the LNP

Why would Labor run here? Just to try and install a non-LNP member?

I have no idea but there are rports they may run.

Mark Molochino looks like he might be the odds-on favourite here.

Nominations close at midday on Thursday October 16. Dametto (not Jamestown!) will have to resign formally by then to be a candidate.

It’s now been confirmed that Mark Molachino is the KAP Candidate for this by-election.

That’s probably game then

Jamestown has to resign first

Bloody auto correct

This bye-election could be in for a long wait. It was reported that a political expert thinks the bye-election won’t be held until 2026. LNP Sam O’Connor has taken a swipe at Labor in the media, suggesting the LNP has heard from a credible source Labor won’t be running a candidate.

I think if Dametto resigns shortly they will try and knick it off before the years out

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-14/qld-nick-dametto-resigns-parliament-townsville-mayor/105889624

Dametto has resigned.

Labor has reportedly decided to run. This would probably ensure a KAP especially if both labor and greens direct preferences.

Why would Labor direct preferences to the LNP? If the LNP picks up Hinchinbrook that adds one more seat to the tally Labor needs to win back in 2028 to win government. It’s in Labor’s interests that the LNP doesn’t win.

Be interesting where ON preferences go given the KAP candidate’s past association with Labor

Wayde Chiesa, former North Queensland RDA CEO named LNP by-election candidate for Hinchinbrook it’sbeen reportedin the Courier Mail Ma. It’s interesting the LNP didn’t go with Andrew Cripps or the previous candidate Annette Swaine from the previous election. Labor going with the previous canidate from the general election probably helped them winning bye-elections in Aston federally and Kiama state with continuity.

I guess you can say goodbye to the hybrid-First Past The Post proposal.

Labor is probably worth high teens with little chance of getting into the 2CP. I am mildly curious if ON picks up votes. Greens and Cannabis will probably collect about 6-7% of the vote again, maybe a bit more, since it is a by. Do you prefer KAP or LNP?

Craig they’ll be luck to replace the 14% they got at the by election

Agree Darth, it would be like the Fadden by election 2023 where Labor didn’t do so well (actually performed worse with a small 2PP and primary vote swing against them compared to the previous general election result).

I’d expect ONP to pick-up a small protest vote due to retiring member. KAP should retain on preferences from most non LNP parties.

Real Talk they won’t.

Maxim ON and KAP usually prefernce each other. This should be a KAP retain on a reduced margin thanks to losss of a big personal vote

I know what they normally do John, that’s why I posed the question as to whether Molachino’s prior association with Labor could pose a threat to that preference flow. I’m thinking it might look something like this now:

LNP 33
KAP 24
ON 21
ALP 12
GRN 4

That leaves very little for any others so those numbers probably come down a touch depending on who nominates in the end. I’d say KAP 55-45 over the LNP currently is where I’d put the 2PP, we’ll see if the LNP can make a case over the campaign for themselves

I’d agree with that 2pp but there will be a tribe of minor parties and inds outing their hands up as usual for a by election.

A search indicates both Chiesa and Dametto were born in Ingham, obvious Italian heritage, Crisafulli also from Ingham.
Just a guess, the LNP have finally turned pro in Qld, Chiesa should pick up Dametto’s personal vote [unless KAP or Labor can recruit a suitable candidate from Ingham], Dametto will win Townsville easily, KAP [and Labor] politically outmanouevered.

Chisea and Crisafulli have known each other since childhood. I believe their families know each other too, as the Crisafullis were farmers and the Chiseas were the local butchers, both in the Ingham region.

I think the KAP margin is deceptively high due to Dametto’s personal vote. While the new KAP candidate is from Ingham originally, his council ward is based in the neighbouring electorate of Thuringowa.

This by-election reminds me of the seat of Mirani in a way, which had a deceptively high One Nation margin due to Stephen Andrew’s popularity. Once he jumped to the Katters, the One Nation vote dropped to like 20% (although he ended up losing, due to ONP sending preferences to the LNP over the KAP)

One Nation have chosen Lisa Buchtmann, a former army truck driver and small business owner for the Hinchinbrook by-election.

Really can’t tell who will win. I’ll rule Labor out as this is a seat they haven’t really given two hoots about for a while, especially the absolute disaster of 2009 (Labor preselected a Brisbane-based university student who then informed a local newspaper he would not be visiting the seat during the campaign). Honestly the LNP, One Nation and KAP all have a strong chance, but for now I’d say KAP by a fingernail unless there’s a significant development in the campaign.

KAP will be favourites due to preference flows. If onp preference the lnp it could get interesting

Both ONP and KAP have chosen very good candidates. Three horse race between ONP, KAP and LNP but I cant see LNP winning from government.

Surely it would be an extraordinary result for One Nation to win here.

I’m curious to know what the LNP vs ONP 2CP would have been here in 2017. Unlike Katter, One Nation would not have benefited from Labor preferences.

This is also not a seat that One Nation managed to win in 1998.