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The overlapping federal result would also have been an ALP v GRN 2CP. And the ALP v LIB 2PP would have been 67-33 (which is where Westaway having to outperform the overlapping federal result by +17 comes from).
100% right Tommo9, and that small section of Prahran that’s in Kooyong is actually perfect to illustrate just how important tactical voting is.
Voters there know Labor or Greens have zero chance of winning Kooyong, it’s a LIB v Ryan contest, so they vote Ryan as the best way to ensure the Liberals don’t win.
The Greens vote did hold up pretty well across the remainder of Prahran (within both Melbourne & Macnamara) too, certainly better than it held up in Richmond. The big swings to Labor were the story.
I should note too, in my analysis of the overlapping federal result, I actually excluded Prahran East entirely because it was too difficult due to it being a LIB v IND contest. So, given Prahran East is one of the more Liberal-friendly areas in the seat, that 67-33 overlapping result may be slightly inflated, but I did also deliberately calculate the non-ordinary vote in a way that was overly generous to the Liberals which probably helps even that out.
Saying a Teal could do okay in parts of Prahran is not the same as saying they would win the seat, and what would doing well look like. In the South Yarra Library booth, a booth bordering Williams Rd, bordering Toorak, demographically the South Yarra Library booth should be a Liberal Party booth, only it hasn’t been good for them for a while, it could be possible for a Teal to poll over 10%, and maybe finish third in that booth.
The truth is we won’t know how we’ll a teal can do in prahran unless one actually runs
@ Pencil
Best area for Teal would also occur where Libs do best
1. North of Toorak Road in South Yarra
2. Prahran East- The Williams Road/Hotham Road corridor divides inner city from suburbia
3. West of Punt Road- The St Kilda Road, Melbourne 3004 area
4. The Hawkesburn part of South Yarra as you move further away from Chapel Street
5. South of Dandenong Road is the weakest area for Teals/Libs
Assuming Labor makes a serious 2PP play for this seat a teal candidate would probably come in fourth but their preferences could determine the order between Labor Greens and Liberal. Preferencing between Labor and Greens that is the ? Of the hour. This could be like Calwell in May. It could take some time to sort that out.