Prahran – Victoria 2026

John, Prahran is a seat the Liberals probably should win more times than not, however it’s difficult to see them holding it.

i reckon the redistribution is probably gonna make it unwinnable. or more winnable depending on which way they go. but in mine and trent versions they wont be winning it again

John, the redistribution will be interesting, Prahran, Albert Park, Malvern and Caulfield all need to find voters. Trent has suggested Prahran East goes to Malvern, however another possibility could be for South Yarra to go into Richmond, then Prahran takes all of St Kilda (making it a safe Green seat) and Albert Park shifts across to Punt Rd.

that would require a yarra crossing which i will not support. my plan is to move albert part to punt road. have malvern move west and the prahran south into st kilda.

John, adding South Yarra to Malvern could work, South Yarra used to be in a seat named Toorak. however, the Liberals would take a fit if South Yarra was added to Malvern.

I agree with John, I think that is the likely movement.

This issue with the next redistribution is how many seats are moved from the south to the North of the Yarra

Currently north of the Yarra is down one seat and using projections to the end of the next redistribution in 2034 North East Metro and Southern Metro are a full seat down each

The current situation is Northern Victoria, down a fifth of a seat and in 2024 down a quarter of a seat
Western Victoria Up 40% of a seat and in 2034 Almost a full seat over quota
Western Metro Currently a fifth of a seat over quota and in 2034 1.5 seats above a quota
Metro North currently a seat over Quota and in 2034 1.21 seats over quota
North East Metro currently a third of a seat under quota and in 2034 1.25 seats under quota
Southern Metro currently 40% of a seat under quota and in 2034 a full seat under quota
South east Metro currently 20% above a seat quota and in 2034 about 25% above a seat quota
Eastern Vic about 12% under quota nd in 2034 about 8% under quota

pencil yea i will be diong that south yarra north of toorak road can go into malvern. (or as mucha sneeded) albert park. up to punt road.

Captain Moonlight, then the question becomes what happens to Hawthorn, it’s currently okay, however, if the redevelopment of Camberwell, Auburn and Glenferrie go ahead, by the early 2030s, Hawthorn could be over quota.

You could redraw Malvern or create a new seat running from South Yarra, through Toorak and up Glenferrie Rd as far as Riversdale Rd, which is the boundary for the redevelopment, across to Tooronga Rd, which becomes the eastern boundary. For people outside of Melbourne, the activity centres in Hawthorn, are north of Riversdale Rd and east of Auburn Rd. The VEC might take these proposed redevelopments into account.

Pencil, you are right, currently Hawthorn is joining an average 23 new electors per month compared to the state average of 59. By 2034 it is on target to have 6,000 electors less than the average for a swat in Victoria

Interesting for this redistribution Hawthorn was project to sign up 56 people per month

While the redistribution committee will take into account projections I can still see Hawthorn taking more of either Kew or Ashwood at the next redistribution. It is more likely that Ashwood will lose nearly all of Boroondara

I am beginning to think that Ringwood or Glen Waverley will be abolished. I know john like to say Mulgrave but there are enough votes within that province to keep all of those seats (albeit with name changes).

The other factor is the SRL and what projections that will have but that will depend on the timing and who wins the next election

I’ve got Prahran taking in Toorak and Armadale and losing St Kilda to Caulfield and Southbank to Albert Park

Then Malvern taking in Ashburton and Glen Iris and Ashwood being abolished

@Pencil, what makes you say Prahran is a seat the Liberals should win more times than not? I would think it’s the complete opposite as its demographics and profile are not a Liberal fit at all.

It’s true that it has been Liberal-friendly in the past, but the times where the Liberals did well (outside of that abnormal byelection) were when the boundaries included Toorak and even part of Armadale for a while, and the demographics of South Yarra were very different to now.

On its current boundaries, the most Liberal-friendly suburb in Prahran (South Yarra) is probably most comparable to the least Liberal-friendly suburb in Hawthorn (Hawthorn itself).

Prahran is kinda like if you took the seat of Richmond and replaced Fitzroy/Collingwood with Hawthorn; or alternatively, if you took the seat of Hawthorn and replaced Camberwell, Canterbury & Surrey Hills with Richmond, Cremorne & Abbotsford.

Either way, you have a predominantly left-wing seat, with only one suburb (Hawthorn in the example seats, South Yarra in reality) that was traditionally Liberal-friendly, but even they are much less so now.

I’d actually argue that Prahran is a centrist seat not left-wing. Even prahran and windsor are wealthy and more economically conservative/ more socially progressive than Melbourne as a whole… lots of people that work in finance/hospitality and lots of trust fund kids. Perfect demographic for a moderate liberal party. Yes the byelection was in unusual circumstances but the majority still preferred the liberals over the greens. The only game changer is turnout. Tony lupton voters (older labor voters) were never going to preference the greens anway… they wont do it in 2026 either

Trent
I’m basing that on if the Liberal Party was a “liberal party” as in if it was socially progressive, small l Liberal, pro-net zero, pro-female, then i could see them winning Prahran as i image, they would poll better in South Yarra and Prahran East.

But back to reality, the Liberal Party in its current form can’t win Prahran including St Kilda/St Kilda East and excluding Toorak.

I think there all valid points here. I pointed out in the Hawthorn thread that the young renters wo live in the new apartments are often young couples who may have grown up in nice homes, went to private schools and work in Private sector jobs such as IT, Finance and Legal. They are yet to purchase homes or have children so this is a different kind of renter to Brunswick, Fitzroy etc. They are less likely to attend Pro-Palestine protests and are aspirational they probably will like Liberals like Gladys Berejinlkian or the Tasmanian Liberals. I still think South Yarra while more dense is still different to Fitzroy. Just like Melbourne 3004 (St Kilda Road) feels very capitalist to me.

I agree that South Yarra is centrist, and to a lesser extent you could argue that large parts of Prahran are too.

However, I would certainly classify Windsor and St Kilda as left-wing. Perhaps a different brand of left-wing to somewhere like Brunswick, but certainly left-wing.

You don’t get 40-50% Greens primary votes and 15-20% Liberal primary votes in “centrist” suburbs. A St Kilda booth in 2022 had a 12% Lib primary, 52% Greens primary and 82-18 2CP.

A seat like Albert Park (excluding the St Kilda booths) is more the type of centrist seat I think you’re describing. But you’re right that South Yarra and parts of Prahran also fit that description.

I also think the difference between Albert Park being mostly the type of centrist described above, and Prahran having more genuinely left-wing territory, is why the Greens haven’t made any serious inroads into Albert Park compared to Prahran. Labor is the natural home of more centrist progressive voters these days.

@ Trent
I was referring to Hawthorn, South Yarra and especially the part of this electorate West of Punt Road as being Tealish. I would also say East of Orrong road in Prahran as well. I agree Windsor is Left Wing it used to be a working class suburb. I would also say the area South of Dandenong Road especially the cheaper walk up flats are left-wing.
The Centrist parts of seat include more dense area could be appealing to a moderate Liberal party.

I’d agree with all of that Nimalan. I wasn’t referring to your comments about Hawthorn & South Yarra, more the reference to Windsor.

I’d say the seat is a combination of centrist areas (South Yarra, Melbourne 3004, Prahran East) and left-wing suburbs (St Kilda, St Kilda East, Windsor), with Prahran itself being a bit of a mix, making the seat overall certainly more left-leaning than centrist and therefore not somewhere I’d consider a natural home for even a moderate Liberal Party due to the lack of any genuinely Liberal-leaning or conservative areas now.

Still there’s no way I think the libs can win this

The pathway for the Liberals is a primary vote no lower than 38% (big ask), a few friendly minor parties scraping up 2-5% between them as feeders and then a close result for 2nd place in the 2CP with Labor coming in just behind the Greens. If Wilson can retain the credibility on crime Battin was building (and the sitting MP gains enough local support) whilst also appealing more to moderates there could be enough Labor voters who feel ideologically closer to the Liberals than the Greens and the preference flow is weak enough to keep the Libs ahead.

Pre-conditions would probably be a 53-47 type statewide result to the Libs, a strong local campaign and strong incumbency on the part of the sitting member (I wouldn’t know from here) and the VIC Greens failing to really gain traction from this point.

The seat was 7 points left of the state average in 2022 (indicating 57-43 which would be a bigger landslide than Kennetts), though with a moderate leader, San Hibbins personal vote gone, and possibly Rachel West away building one of her own, I don’t think it’s impossible with a 2PP around 53-55.

As Maxim says, it’s a very small pathway, but it does exist.

The libs could conceivably win the next albeit narrowly is Jess Wilson is able to build up the liberal brand enough and labor makes errors. Look at the federal campaign labor won seats many of us didn’t see coming. But it would require a landslide to win. If the liberals win Prahran they are probably in government.

If the Liberals win Prahran they probably win 50 seats. There are probably at least 4-5 seats above 45 that they’d win before Prahran now.

I even think they’d win Albert Park before Prahran, in a general election.

I think if they win Prahran hypthetically, they will also win Macedon, Eltham, South Barwon and Monbulk so there are among the 4-5 extra seats/

The Age had an article last week that broke down the responses to 3 questions relating to the Liberals’ electability which really highlighted what a challenge it will be for the Liberals to hold this seat now:

1. “The Liberals are aligned with my personal values & priorities.”

Prahran was a net -20 with only 31% agreeing with the statement, which wasn’t much better than Melbourne (27% agree) and Richmond (26% agree). By contrast, seats like Hawthorn & Kew were basically neutral with 41% agreeing while even Albert Park was only a -15.

2. “The Liberals are in touch with modern Australia.”

Admittedly the Liberals did poorly everywhere on this question including the inner seats they hold, averaging a -20 even in Kew, Hawthorn, Malvern & Brighton. But Prahran was particularly bad at -33, again closer to the result in ALP v GRN contests like Melbourne (-37) and Richmond (-39) than seats the Liberals are competitive in.

3. “I would only consider a party ready to govern if they have credible climate change policies.”

Prahran really stood out here with 65% agreeing, and a net +46 agreement. This was more than even Brunswick (+44) & Northcote (+43), only Melbourne & Richmond were higher. The only seats coloured the darkest shade on the map were the block of ALP v GRN contests in north, plus Prahran & Albert Park.

That was the trend overall. The only seats which had the darkest shade for every question were the block of ALP v GRN seats in the north, and Prahran.

The article lists the results for the most marginal Liberal-held seats, and Prahran sticks out like a sore thumb amongst all the others which had very similar scores to each other. Prahran was between about 13-20 points worse than the other Liberal marginals on every question, which the article pointed out and they even interviewed Rachel Westaway who talks about the demographic challenge they face there.

Interestingly, she says “What I say will not necessarily resonate with all of my other colleagues, but we need Prahran in order to win.” To me that sounds like she’s saying her colleagues have already written off Prahran and don’t see it in their path to win, which sounds like she may not have the most well-resourced campaign.

Thanks for the info @Trent

Assuming we are looking at the same thing (BluePrint commissioned YouGov survey) but it seems there’s a major caveat of the respondents being asked the questions in relation to the Federal Coalition. I think Wilson has the opportunity to delineate the Victorian Liberals considerably from the Federal brand and voters will become much more focussed on the state brand as the election draws nearer, kind of like how Federal politics really dropped off the radar once the state campaign got into full swing. I don’t think the Federal Coalition’s climate policy is going to be on the ballot come November 2026 for example and that would likely colour what people felt ‘Liberal values’ might be too.

If you mapped out state Labor’s approval you’d probably also get very sobering responses

I agree Maxim about that caveat, and state responses overall will shift more towards the Coalition and more away from Labor compared to federal.

That said, I think the variances between different seats wouldn’t really change much if at all, so if for example Prahran is roughly 15 points to the left of its neighbouring Liberal held seats in a federal survey, it likely would be similar in a state-based survey too (even if the results overall were more Liberal-friendly).

What was more interesting about that survey was how much more closely Prahran aligned to inner-north ALP v GRN seats than it does to its neighbouring Liberal marginals. Considerably more than even Albert Park.

That probably makes sense though, if there was a reasonable correlation between the surveyed ideological alignment (interested to know more about the methodology and scope of the survey too mind you) and we think the inner east Liberal held seats are probably shifting from 3-6% margins to more like 7-12% then that probably leaves the Liberals short in Prahran but with the incumbent leaning into local progressive issues, delineating herself from colleagues, the electoral machinations of the Greens making the count and potentially the survey’s findings being a bit more slanted towards the Federal coalition and climate issues that are fairly irrelevant to the state election and I think it confirms the majority view on this site in Prahran that the Liberals have a limited but possible pathway here

I think the other interesting nugget from the article though was Rachel Westaway’s comment implying that her colleagues don’t see Prahran as in their path to win. It could be both a blessing and a curse: a blessing if she can distance herself from the party brand but a curse if she doesn’t get the resources she had in the byelection.

The Liberals are not exactly well resourced in Victoria. Obviously more resourced overall than the Greens, but the Greens usually have the advantage of being able to concentrate their resources into a handful of target seats.

At the byelection, this advantage was erased by the Liberals also having the luxury of putting all their resources into just two seats (Werribee & Prahran), and Advance putting all their resources solely into Prahran, and no Labor campaign against them either. The byelection also had a big of a Greens vs Everybody dynamic, as it was a big ballot of people mostly running solely to defeat the Greens.

Labor obviously won’t prioritise Prahran with so many seats to defend, but in the light of recent GRN to ALP shifts among similar demographics, they will probably at least put up a good candidate and put enough effort into to take seriously as a potential pickup (along with Richmond) to offset other losses.

So with Prahran being a top 3 priority for the Greens and Labor at least not running dead, Westaway’s implication that her colleagues don’t see Prahran as a seat they need to win will probably add to the Liberals’ uphill battle.

I agree there is a possible pathway, there always is, I would just consider the odds to be maybe 50-1.

Trent, a counter point may be that by pulling resources out of Prahran (an unwinnable seat) – the Liberals can focus their efforts more on their three other target areas (the core/traditional Eastern suburbs seats that used to be part of their bread and butter, some outer suburban seats in the Western Suburbs and then regional seats which have eluded them since 1999). The third category can be boosted by having National candidates run instead of Liberals.

I do quite frankly find it a bit disappointing if Rachel Westaway’s comments are true about her colleagues. They shouldn’t be just ‘giving up’ on seats whatsoever.

There still is a chance of a Liberal retain in Prahran if she is resourced well, focuses on local issues, and supported by notable, more moderate MPs in the party, she could keep any correction swing to a minimum. Though I agree she’s highly likely to still lose.

But I find it baffling and honestly stupid to even write her off. The Liberals need to show commitment to all seats in the state regardless of margin, not just write them off. I’m not saying every seat is winnable but if a party wants to govern the state, they need to show they give two hoots about the state.

@James 100%. They do likely need Prahran if they want to form majority government. Greenvale and Narre warren north probably aren’t going to flip with Jess wilson as leader. They were never really going to flip. The sandbelt is also probably not going to flip with much higher margins than going into 2010. So any seat that the Liberals hold now they need to keep. Having inner city MPs like Rachel westaway who are very moderate also helps to increase votes in Southern Metro for the Legislative Council and maybe get to 3 seats.

@dragons they dont need Prahran and they wont get it.

Prahan is in a group of seats that will play a critical role in determining the next parliament.

If the Greens win Prahran and pick up a few other seats and the Liberals pick up 8 to 10 seats, there is a chance the Allan Government is pushed into minority.

If the Liberals find a way to hold Prahran, there is a strong chance we are looking at a change of government.

If Labor wins Prahran, they are probably looking at being returned with a clear majority.

@Pencil, I’d agree with that assessment of how Prahran’s result can probably predict the broader election result. The most likely of the 3 is the Greens winning, and that is probably the least predictive as it’d be more of a return to the “norm” and if for example they regained Prahran but didn’t pick up any new seats, Labor would still hold a majority with the Liberals winning 8-10.

But in my view, if the Liberals miraculously win Prahran then the Coalition are picking up at least 20 seats and winning a comfortable majority. If Labor win Prahran, they are not losing their majority.

@Yoh Ah, I think that is probably the most sensible strategy for them too. If I were to consider Prahran a non-Liberal seat they need to gain (which in a way it is), it would barely scrape into their 20 most winnable seats, if at all. I’d rank it below seats like Bentleigh, Mordialloc & Sydnenham which are 17th, 18th & 24th on the pendulum.

I also agree the Coalition should be smart with resources and let the Nationals – whose own seats are probably at no risk whatsoever – challenge the more regional seats while the Liberals focus on the eastern suburbs & winnable outer suburban seats (Melton, Sunbury, Yan Yean, Werribee, Sydenham, etc).

@James, Westaway’s comments were a bit cryptic and didn’t necessarily state that they had ‘given up’ on Prahran but there was definitely the implication that they don’t share her view that retaining it is in their path to victory.

I think she will put in a strong effort herself, but the difference is that she won’t be anywhere near as well resourced as she was in the byelection where they only had 2 seats to focus on, versus the general election where they need to pick up 17 and hold their own marginals. By contrast, the Greens will still be able to pour roughly the same amount of resources into the 2026 contest as they did in the byelection, and this time will also have Labor running an attack campaign against the Liberals (an overlooked factor that was entirely absent from the byelection, making it a purely local contest).

On the topic of having support from moderate MPs too, she had Southwick & Pesutto by her side every single day during the byelection campaign but they will be busy defending their own marginal seats this time.

I agree with your comment though that they need to show they give two hoots. The fact that they need to do well in LC also means they will put effort in everywhere, but I just don’t think Prahran will be considered one of their priorities.

In simple terms: they are more likely to form government without Prahran, than to win Prahran without forming government. Which indicates it’s a seat I would consider to be beyond “the tipping point” (to use an American term).

If the Libs win here theyre probably in government.
If the Greens win its a close one.
If Labor wins theyve probably retained government.

Trent, it is possible the Greens win Prahran and Labor holds government, however my line of thinking is if Labor’s vote tanks badly in Prahran, it could also tank across other inner-city seats. There is a view that the Greens are not going to do that well this election, but if Labor’ support is tanking, the Liberals improve and Greens hold steady, then it’s possible the Greens might outperform expectation to pick up seats.

If the Greens are winning Prahran Labor is probably in minority government. i cant see Labor holding enough seats to form majority. They could still be in minoirty if they win Prahran. It dpednds on who finishes in the 2pp with the libs.

Yeah I agree Pencil. Labor’s vote share in Prahran will definitely be an indicator. It’s more just that they didn’t even win Prahran at the high watermark of 2018 so I don’t expect them to win it even if they hold majority government, but certainly if Labor’s support tanks to 2014 levels (around 25%) here then I think they’re losing their majority.

Liberal retain. Latest polls show 17% swing to the Liberals among the youngest demographic (18-35). Liberal PV is higher among that group than the 35-55 group and much higher than Labor PV. If this poll is accurate, Labor has a huge problem on their hands. This is a seat with many young professionals. Rachel westaway is an effective MP, the Greens candidate is a flop.

Suspect that younger voter subgroup in the Resolve poll was at best an outlier but realistically just a bad sample

I know federal & state are different, but that one sample is a real outlier compared to all the consistent demographic polling which has shown the Liberal primary vote (albeit at a federal level) at only 10% among Gen Z.

Like I said, I know you can’t compare federal to state, and I know the Liberals will perform much better at state level than federal, but I also don’t see a 27 point difference between federal and state among that demographic being realistic. I think Redbridge are probably the best at demographic based polling as it’s their primary focus.

When repeated polling has shown Coalition support among Gen Z well below 20% and then a single poll’s breakdown shows it at 37%, it’s hard to imagine that could be accurate.