Prahran – Victoria 2026

John, Prahran is a seat the Liberals probably should win more times than not, however it’s difficult to see them holding it.

i reckon the redistribution is probably gonna make it unwinnable. or more winnable depending on which way they go. but in mine and trent versions they wont be winning it again

John, the redistribution will be interesting, Prahran, Albert Park, Malvern and Caulfield all need to find voters. Trent has suggested Prahran East goes to Malvern, however another possibility could be for South Yarra to go into Richmond, then Prahran takes all of St Kilda (making it a safe Green seat) and Albert Park shifts across to Punt Rd.

that would require a yarra crossing which i will not support. my plan is to move albert part to punt road. have malvern move west and the prahran south into st kilda.

John, adding South Yarra to Malvern could work, South Yarra used to be in a seat named Toorak. however, the Liberals would take a fit if South Yarra was added to Malvern.

I agree with John, I think that is the likely movement.

This issue with the next redistribution is how many seats are moved from the south to the North of the Yarra

Currently north of the Yarra is down one seat and using projections to the end of the next redistribution in 2034 North East Metro and Southern Metro are a full seat down each

The current situation is Northern Victoria, down a fifth of a seat and in 2024 down a quarter of a seat
Western Victoria Up 40% of a seat and in 2034 Almost a full seat over quota
Western Metro Currently a fifth of a seat over quota and in 2034 1.5 seats above a quota
Metro North currently a seat over Quota and in 2034 1.21 seats over quota
North East Metro currently a third of a seat under quota and in 2034 1.25 seats under quota
Southern Metro currently 40% of a seat under quota and in 2034 a full seat under quota
South east Metro currently 20% above a seat quota and in 2034 about 25% above a seat quota
Eastern Vic about 12% under quota nd in 2034 about 8% under quota

pencil yea i will be diong that south yarra north of toorak road can go into malvern. (or as mucha sneeded) albert park. up to punt road.

Captain Moonlight, then the question becomes what happens to Hawthorn, it’s currently okay, however, if the redevelopment of Camberwell, Auburn and Glenferrie go ahead, by the early 2030s, Hawthorn could be over quota.

You could redraw Malvern or create a new seat running from South Yarra, through Toorak and up Glenferrie Rd as far as Riversdale Rd, which is the boundary for the redevelopment, across to Tooronga Rd, which becomes the eastern boundary. For people outside of Melbourne, the activity centres in Hawthorn, are north of Riversdale Rd and east of Auburn Rd. The VEC might take these proposed redevelopments into account.

Pencil, you are right, currently Hawthorn is joining an average 23 new electors per month compared to the state average of 59. By 2034 it is on target to have 6,000 electors less than the average for a swat in Victoria

Interesting for this redistribution Hawthorn was project to sign up 56 people per month

While the redistribution committee will take into account projections I can still see Hawthorn taking more of either Kew or Ashwood at the next redistribution. It is more likely that Ashwood will lose nearly all of Boroondara

I am beginning to think that Ringwood or Glen Waverley will be abolished. I know john like to say Mulgrave but there are enough votes within that province to keep all of those seats (albeit with name changes).

The other factor is the SRL and what projections that will have but that will depend on the timing and who wins the next election

I’ve got Prahran taking in Toorak and Armadale and losing St Kilda to Caulfield and Southbank to Albert Park

Then Malvern taking in Ashburton and Glen Iris and Ashwood being abolished

@Pencil, what makes you say Prahran is a seat the Liberals should win more times than not? I would think it’s the complete opposite as its demographics and profile are not a Liberal fit at all.

It’s true that it has been Liberal-friendly in the past, but the times where the Liberals did well (outside of that abnormal byelection) were when the boundaries included Toorak and even part of Armadale for a while, and the demographics of South Yarra were very different to now.

On its current boundaries, the most Liberal-friendly suburb in Prahran (South Yarra) is probably most comparable to the least Liberal-friendly suburb in Hawthorn (Hawthorn itself).

Prahran is kinda like if you took the seat of Richmond and replaced Fitzroy/Collingwood with Hawthorn; or alternatively, if you took the seat of Hawthorn and replaced Camberwell, Canterbury & Surrey Hills with Richmond, Cremorne & Abbotsford.

Either way, you have a predominantly left-wing seat, with only one suburb (Hawthorn in the example seats, South Yarra in reality) that was traditionally Liberal-friendly, but even they are much less so now.