Prahran – Victoria 2026

John, Prahran is a seat the Liberals probably should win more times than not, however it’s difficult to see them holding it.

i reckon the redistribution is probably gonna make it unwinnable. or more winnable depending on which way they go. but in mine and trent versions they wont be winning it again

John, the redistribution will be interesting, Prahran, Albert Park, Malvern and Caulfield all need to find voters. Trent has suggested Prahran East goes to Malvern, however another possibility could be for South Yarra to go into Richmond, then Prahran takes all of St Kilda (making it a safe Green seat) and Albert Park shifts across to Punt Rd.

that would require a yarra crossing which i will not support. my plan is to move albert part to punt road. have malvern move west and the prahran south into st kilda.

John, adding South Yarra to Malvern could work, South Yarra used to be in a seat named Toorak. however, the Liberals would take a fit if South Yarra was added to Malvern.

I agree with John, I think that is the likely movement.

This issue with the next redistribution is how many seats are moved from the south to the North of the Yarra

Currently north of the Yarra is down one seat and using projections to the end of the next redistribution in 2034 North East Metro and Southern Metro are a full seat down each

The current situation is Northern Victoria, down a fifth of a seat and in 2024 down a quarter of a seat
Western Victoria Up 40% of a seat and in 2034 Almost a full seat over quota
Western Metro Currently a fifth of a seat over quota and in 2034 1.5 seats above a quota
Metro North currently a seat over Quota and in 2034 1.21 seats over quota
North East Metro currently a third of a seat under quota and in 2034 1.25 seats under quota
Southern Metro currently 40% of a seat under quota and in 2034 a full seat under quota
South east Metro currently 20% above a seat quota and in 2034 about 25% above a seat quota
Eastern Vic about 12% under quota nd in 2034 about 8% under quota

pencil yea i will be diong that south yarra north of toorak road can go into malvern. (or as mucha sneeded) albert park. up to punt road.

Captain Moonlight, then the question becomes what happens to Hawthorn, it’s currently okay, however, if the redevelopment of Camberwell, Auburn and Glenferrie go ahead, by the early 2030s, Hawthorn could be over quota.

You could redraw Malvern or create a new seat running from South Yarra, through Toorak and up Glenferrie Rd as far as Riversdale Rd, which is the boundary for the redevelopment, across to Tooronga Rd, which becomes the eastern boundary. For people outside of Melbourne, the activity centres in Hawthorn, are north of Riversdale Rd and east of Auburn Rd. The VEC might take these proposed redevelopments into account.

Pencil, you are right, currently Hawthorn is joining an average 23 new electors per month compared to the state average of 59. By 2034 it is on target to have 6,000 electors less than the average for a swat in Victoria

Interesting for this redistribution Hawthorn was project to sign up 56 people per month

While the redistribution committee will take into account projections I can still see Hawthorn taking more of either Kew or Ashwood at the next redistribution. It is more likely that Ashwood will lose nearly all of Boroondara

I am beginning to think that Ringwood or Glen Waverley will be abolished. I know john like to say Mulgrave but there are enough votes within that province to keep all of those seats (albeit with name changes).

The other factor is the SRL and what projections that will have but that will depend on the timing and who wins the next election

I’ve got Prahran taking in Toorak and Armadale and losing St Kilda to Caulfield and Southbank to Albert Park

Then Malvern taking in Ashburton and Glen Iris and Ashwood being abolished

@Pencil, what makes you say Prahran is a seat the Liberals should win more times than not? I would think it’s the complete opposite as its demographics and profile are not a Liberal fit at all.

It’s true that it has been Liberal-friendly in the past, but the times where the Liberals did well (outside of that abnormal byelection) were when the boundaries included Toorak and even part of Armadale for a while, and the demographics of South Yarra were very different to now.

On its current boundaries, the most Liberal-friendly suburb in Prahran (South Yarra) is probably most comparable to the least Liberal-friendly suburb in Hawthorn (Hawthorn itself).

Prahran is kinda like if you took the seat of Richmond and replaced Fitzroy/Collingwood with Hawthorn; or alternatively, if you took the seat of Hawthorn and replaced Camberwell, Canterbury & Surrey Hills with Richmond, Cremorne & Abbotsford.

Either way, you have a predominantly left-wing seat, with only one suburb (Hawthorn in the example seats, South Yarra in reality) that was traditionally Liberal-friendly, but even they are much less so now.

I’d actually argue that Prahran is a centrist seat not left-wing. Even prahran and windsor are wealthy and more economically conservative/ more socially progressive than Melbourne as a whole… lots of people that work in finance/hospitality and lots of trust fund kids. Perfect demographic for a moderate liberal party. Yes the byelection was in unusual circumstances but the majority still preferred the liberals over the greens. The only game changer is turnout. Tony lupton voters (older labor voters) were never going to preference the greens anway… they wont do it in 2026 either

Trent
I’m basing that on if the Liberal Party was a “liberal party” as in if it was socially progressive, small l Liberal, pro-net zero, pro-female, then i could see them winning Prahran as i image, they would poll better in South Yarra and Prahran East.

But back to reality, the Liberal Party in its current form can’t win Prahran including St Kilda/St Kilda East and excluding Toorak.

I think there all valid points here. I pointed out in the Hawthorn thread that the young renters wo live in the new apartments are often young couples who may have grown up in nice homes, went to private schools and work in Private sector jobs such as IT, Finance and Legal. They are yet to purchase homes or have children so this is a different kind of renter to Brunswick, Fitzroy etc. They are less likely to attend Pro-Palestine protests and are aspirational they probably will like Liberals like Gladys Berejinlkian or the Tasmanian Liberals. I still think South Yarra while more dense is still different to Fitzroy. Just like Melbourne 3004 (St Kilda Road) feels very capitalist to me.

I agree that South Yarra is centrist, and to a lesser extent you could argue that large parts of Prahran are too.

However, I would certainly classify Windsor and St Kilda as left-wing. Perhaps a different brand of left-wing to somewhere like Brunswick, but certainly left-wing.

You don’t get 40-50% Greens primary votes and 15-20% Liberal primary votes in “centrist” suburbs. A St Kilda booth in 2022 had a 12% Lib primary, 52% Greens primary and 82-18 2CP.

A seat like Albert Park (excluding the St Kilda booths) is more the type of centrist seat I think you’re describing. But you’re right that South Yarra and parts of Prahran also fit that description.

I also think the difference between Albert Park being mostly the type of centrist described above, and Prahran having more genuinely left-wing territory, is why the Greens haven’t made any serious inroads into Albert Park compared to Prahran. Labor is the natural home of more centrist progressive voters these days.

@ Trent
I was referring to Hawthorn, South Yarra and especially the part of this electorate West of Punt Road as being Tealish. I would also say East of Orrong road in Prahran as well. I agree Windsor is Left Wing it used to be a working class suburb. I would also say the area South of Dandenong Road especially the cheaper walk up flats are left-wing.
The Centrist parts of seat include more dense area could be appealing to a moderate Liberal party.

I’d agree with all of that Nimalan. I wasn’t referring to your comments about Hawthorn & South Yarra, more the reference to Windsor.

I’d say the seat is a combination of centrist areas (South Yarra, Melbourne 3004, Prahran East) and left-wing suburbs (St Kilda, St Kilda East, Windsor), with Prahran itself being a bit of a mix, making the seat overall certainly more left-leaning than centrist and therefore not somewhere I’d consider a natural home for even a moderate Liberal Party due to the lack of any genuinely Liberal-leaning or conservative areas now.

Still there’s no way I think the libs can win this

The pathway for the Liberals is a primary vote no lower than 38% (big ask), a few friendly minor parties scraping up 2-5% between them as feeders and then a close result for 2nd place in the 2CP with Labor coming in just behind the Greens. If Wilson can retain the credibility on crime Battin was building (and the sitting MP gains enough local support) whilst also appealing more to moderates there could be enough Labor voters who feel ideologically closer to the Liberals than the Greens and the preference flow is weak enough to keep the Libs ahead.

Pre-conditions would probably be a 53-47 type statewide result to the Libs, a strong local campaign and strong incumbency on the part of the sitting member (I wouldn’t know from here) and the VIC Greens failing to really gain traction from this point.

The seat was 7 points left of the state average in 2022 (indicating 57-43 which would be a bigger landslide than Kennetts), though with a moderate leader, San Hibbins personal vote gone, and possibly Rachel West away building one of her own, I don’t think it’s impossible with a 2PP around 53-55.

As Maxim says, it’s a very small pathway, but it does exist.

The libs could conceivably win the next albeit narrowly is Jess Wilson is able to build up the liberal brand enough and labor makes errors. Look at the federal campaign labor won seats many of us didn’t see coming. But it would require a landslide to win. If the liberals win Prahran they are probably in government.

If the Liberals win Prahran they probably win 50 seats. There are probably at least 4-5 seats above 45 that they’d win before Prahran now.

I even think they’d win Albert Park before Prahran, in a general election.

I think if they win Prahran hypthetically, they will also win Macedon, Eltham, South Barwon and Monbulk so there are among the 4-5 extra seats/