Prahran – Victoria 2026

The overlapping federal result would also have been an ALP v GRN 2CP. And the ALP v LIB 2PP would have been 67-33 (which is where Westaway having to outperform the overlapping federal result by +17 comes from).

100% right Tommo9, and that small section of Prahran that’s in Kooyong is actually perfect to illustrate just how important tactical voting is.

Voters there know Labor or Greens have zero chance of winning Kooyong, it’s a LIB v Ryan contest, so they vote Ryan as the best way to ensure the Liberals don’t win.

The Greens vote did hold up pretty well across the remainder of Prahran (within both Melbourne & Macnamara) too, certainly better than it held up in Richmond. The big swings to Labor were the story.

I should note too, in my analysis of the overlapping federal result, I actually excluded Prahran East entirely because it was too difficult due to it being a LIB v IND contest. So, given Prahran East is one of the more Liberal-friendly areas in the seat, that 67-33 overlapping result may be slightly inflated, but I did also deliberately calculate the non-ordinary vote in a way that was overly generous to the Liberals which probably helps even that out.

Saying a Teal could do okay in parts of Prahran is not the same as saying they would win the seat, and what would doing well look like. In the South Yarra Library booth, a booth bordering Williams Rd, bordering Toorak, demographically the South Yarra Library booth should be a Liberal Party booth, only it hasn’t been good for them for a while, it could be possible for a Teal to poll over 10%, and maybe finish third in that booth.

The truth is we won’t know how we’ll a teal can do in prahran unless one actually runs

@ Pencil
Best area for Teal would also occur where Libs do best
1. North of Toorak Road in South Yarra
2. Prahran East- The Williams Road/Hotham Road corridor divides inner city from suburbia
3. West of Punt Road- The St Kilda Road, Melbourne 3004 area
4. The Hawkesburn part of South Yarra as you move further away from Chapel Street
5. South of Dandenong Road is the weakest area for Teals/Libs

Assuming Labor makes a serious 2PP play for this seat a teal candidate would probably come in fourth but their preferences could determine the order between Labor Greens and Liberal. Preferencing between Labor and Greens that is the ? Of the hour. This could be like Calwell in May. It could take some time to sort that out.

Don’t think this cycle will be all that teal friendly in terms of issues but there will be plenty of double or even triple haters. Under current electoral funding laws it’s very hard to get proper momentum behind teal campaigns at the state level and with all three major parties likely to throw resources at this race the commenters suggesting it’s going to be a tough nut for a teal to crack are probably spot on.

Agree Maxim. To me, there are really just no factors or circumstances whatsoever that would indicate that a teal could do well in Prahran even to the point of being much of a disrupter to the 3CP race between the majors. Victoria’s electoral funding laws are one of the reasons the teals struggle a lot more at state level too.

If teals couldn’t even crack double-digits in Brighton, Sandringham and Caulfield in 2022, why would a teal make any significant impact whatsoever in an inner-city seat that has been held by Labor or Greens for 19 of the last 23 years, and where all 3 parties are likely to put resources into it?

Prahran has really become a Greens vs Labor seat (decided at the 3CP stage), with the byelection result really being an anomaly where a perfect storm of extremely low turnout that was almost certainly lowest in the most left-wing part (Port Phillip), no Labor candidate, an ex-Labor MP directing preferences to the Liberals, a possibly significant donkey vote that favoured the Liberals, and the byelection being held at the peak of the Liberals’ polling ended up collectively being just enough for the Liberal to surprisingly scrape over the line by about 800 votes.

I’m confident that for all the talk of Prahran being a “3 way race” again and the possibility of a teal disruptor entering the mix, it is simply going to revert to being a relatively safe non-Liberal seat (<45% Liberal 2CP).

As I said, in the overlapping federal result the Liberals would not have even made the 2CP. They certainly will in November 2026, but they'd need to outperform the federal result by about +17 and will even need to outperform their byelection primary vote by about +7 to be competitive in the 2CP.

As for the turnout in the byelection:

Every Stonnington booth from 2022 was used in the byelection, but only 2 of the 6 Port Phillip booths used in 2022 were used in the byelection, and the two that were used had very low visibility.

The Stonnington booths actually had a higher combined turnout than in 2022 (partly because of the much lower postal & early vote); but the Port Phillip booths had a significantly lower combined turnout than in 2022.

On top of that, and especially so close to council elections having just happened 3 months earlier, people in Port Phillip typically don’t associate themselves with ‘Prahran’.

So being a byelection where if you’re not in Prahran you don’t have to vote – unlike a general election where everyone knows they have to vote – I think it’s pretty safe to assume .that St Kilda, St Kilda East and Southbank would have no doubt had the lowest turnout. I wouldn’t be surprised if the turnout in Stonnington was actually pretty close to 2022, and the 14% of 2022 voters who didn’t show up in 2025 were mostly concentrated in Port Phillip.

And obviously Port Phillip is by far the most left-wing part of the seat, where the Liberals finish a distant third in every booth (primary votes mostly ranging between 12-15%) with a 2CP hovering around 20%. So it’s very possible, if not likely, that low turnout in Port Phillip alone was a decisive factor in the Greens falling around 800 votes short in the 2CP count.

That’s before getting to all the other unique byelection factors, like the fact that even if Lupton’s preferences broke 55-45 to the Liberals (instead of 70-30), the Greens would have won. Enter an actual Labor candidate whose preferences will break around 80-20 to the Greens and you have a very different contest to the byelection.

That and you’ve got the by election protest voters who want to send a message to the govt knowing the govt won’t change.

The founder of Resolve Strategic said that teals are less effective at campaigning on state issues which normally focus on service delivery. Because of the nature of the Victorian Liberals and stances on social issues, there might be some interest in teal campaigns, just not in Prahran. Because of electoral funding laws, it’s very hard for a teal independent to get momentum going in the way that federal teal campaigns did.

The opening of the Metro Tunnel and Anzac Station will be in December 2025. This could be a game changer and I can see it featured heavily in Labor’s campaign. Because of the competition between the three main parties, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Liberals pull resources out of here to focus on more winnable, outer-suburban seats.

@Votante – I am not surprised Teals always seemed to be something of a notional concept rather than a hard and fast point on the political spectrum. Like other “minor” parties, it is driven mainly by dissatisfaction with one of the major parties. In this case, predominantly though not exclusively, the Liberals. That primarily works on the Federal level, where ideology is more influential than deliverables at the state and local level. However, that said, if there is a perceived void in the offering, there may be an opening, especially if the state Liberals in Vic can resolve their internal divisions.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/to-understand-the-liberal-party-just-follow-the-hatreds-20251001-p5mz54.html

When you have stuff like that, it’s just like having one hand tied behind your back. To play in the states, the teals would have to start locally and fund council races.

Agree with you again Votante. In addition to Anzac Station (within the seat of Prahran) opening, it’s highly likely that the Sandringham Line ends up with significantly increased weekend services too, as it will be taking over from the Frankston Line as the south-eastern part of the “Cross City Line” (running all the way through to Werribee/Williamstown).

On weekends, the Werribee and Williamstown Lines run at 20 minute frequencies (each), with one of the two running exactly 10 minutes apart, and as a result, the Frankston Line runs every 10 minutes with every alternating one going to either Werribee or Williamstown.

With the Sandringham Line taking that over from Frankston, it means Sandringham Line frequencies are likely to double on weekends, not to mention that people living in Prahran / Windsor etc will be able to hop on a train directly to Williamstown without needing to change, which is always a nice weekend activity.

I had an email from Rachel Westaway (no idea how I ended up on her mailing list) that she’s hosting a forum in October to oppose Labor’s “activity centres” and “overdevelopment” in Prahran.

I feel like it’s a pretty misguided strategy by the Liberals here, in a seat that is overwhelmingly renters who would probably love to afford to be able to buy in the area but can’t, to be opposing an increase in supply. “Heritage” is not really at risk either because terrace houses in Prahran & Windsor are so expensive and sought after – and the lots are too small to develop on by themselves – that while a government may ALLOW development up to certain heights, it isn’t like these leafy streets with $2m+ Edwardian houses are going to be snapped up by developers and demolished. The development in Prahran has mostly been on old industrial or commercial sites – often from the ugly mid-20th century era – that nobody cares about, and most of the young population renting here would love an increase of housing supply.

In a very unsurprising move, the Greens have announced Angelica Di Camillo for this seat.

Greens most likely gain this seat back; the combined left vote easily outmatches the Liberals, and Labor isn’t particularly popular at the moment.

Not surprised that Angelica Di Camillo has been pre-selected, she will have built a profile now, and only lost the byelection because a perfect storm of abnormal circumstances – only 2/3 turnout, no Labor candidate, an ex-Labor IND directing preferences to the Libs (which flowed at 70%), and of course the general byelection advantage an opposition has – allowed the Liberal candidate to squeak over the line by about 800 2CP votes. Not to mention that the byelection was held at the peak of the Liberals’ polling (42% primary vote).

If:
– Turnout was normal, Di Camillo would likely have won;
– Labor ran a candidate, Di Camillo would easily have won;
– Lupton’s preferences even flowed 55-45 to the Libs instead of 70-30, Di Camillo would have won

In 2026 there will be normal turnout, a Labor candidate, preferences flowing at least 80% between ALP & Greens, no Lupton on the ballot, and the Liberals’ polling has already slumped -7 since the byelection was held.

I agree that if Labor didn’t win in 2018 or 2022, it’s unlikely they will topple the Greens in 2026 when state Labor are much less popular than in 2018 & 2022. That said, you never know, at the federal election the overlapping result would have been a comfortable Labor win. What is certain though is that the Liberals are least likely to win out of the three because they will need to overperform their byelection result by at least +6 on primary vote, without all the favourable byelection factors, and with the state polling swinging back about 7% from LIB to ALP since the byelection.

It’s not a seat the libs can probly hold long term. Anyway the redistribution would probably turn it into a leftist seat anyway based on both we have planned it would probably end up being an alp v grn seat anyway. Unless they go the opposite way in which the libs might actually be competitive but then would probly lose caufield

@ Trent
If Lupton runs again despite an official Labor candidate how well do you think he will do?

I don’t think he’ll do well at all Nimalan. Under 5%. I also don’t think he’d bother running, but him & Michael Danby might do what they did in Macnamara and run an online anti-Greens campaign, telling Labor voters to preference the Liberals. However, that’ll be completely ineffective with an actual Labor candidate handing out a HTV with the Greens above the Liberals (which I’m 99% certain they would do because they would want the Liberals’ target to form government to increase from 16 to 17 seats).

There’s no reason for a Labor candidate in Prahran to run an open HTV like Josh Burns did because Prahran has a negligible Jewish community (even the 1 pocket of St Kilda East that’s in the seat is the least Jewish part, only around 6% – which around 200 voters).

So I imagine the contest will return to what it was around 2018 (before Sam Hibbins’ significant personal vote put the Greens way out in front), which is a close 3CP contest but an easy “left” win vs the Libs in the 2CP.

@ Trent
I agree. At the by-election many Bracks era Labor MPs actually endorsed Lupton. I think Labor HQ may have secretly wanted the Libs to be competative at the by-election this means Libs will devote some resouces to Prahran rather than throw all at Werribee which was under serious threat so they encouraged Bracks era MPs to endorse him. Having a Siting MP in Prahran now will mean that the Libs will devote at least some sources to Prahran rather than throwing all at Labor held seats.
Compared to 2018 Labor is less popular and social housing residents make a smaller % of Prahran’s electorate due to Private rentals built since that helps Greens versus Labor on the 2CP. However, Greens dont have the benefit of a sitting member like they did in 2018. It maybe in Labor’s strategic interest to let go of this seat and let Greens win it and devote every cent to sandbag as many seats on the 6-8% Range like Sunbury, Eureka, Box Hill, Monbulk etc each one they hold means Libs have to up the Pendulmn further.

Agree Trent and Nimalan, this is a progressive seat so for Labor to win it they need a good (left leaning) candidate and a favourable environment. With their support declining since 2022, Labor is better off letting the Greens capture these sorts of seats so they can deny the Coalition a majority in their own right.

Not sure about Rachel Westaway’s position, but if she appears as a moderate then she could be a good fit for some of the other marginal seats in the Eastern suburbs such as Ashwood, given that Prahran is essentially unwinnable for any Liberal candidate or MP.

My understanding about Rachel Westaway is that she lives near the eastern boundary of the seat (near the border of Toorak) and is very involved with the Prahran-Toorak Cricket Club which is also actually in Toorak, so I actually think a missed opportunity for the Liberals is that by winning the Prahran byelection, it ruled her out for running for preselection in Malvern where she would probably have made the ideal Liberal MP for that seat.

The Liberals would probably have been better off having her hold a safe seat from 2026-30 and beyond than temporarily holding a predominantly left-wing seat for just 18 months that they have very little chance of retaining beyond 2026.

@Nimalan, I agree that Labor’s best approach in Prahran would be to not redirect any resources here from any of the more important seats they need to retain, however, they should still preselect a good left leaning (as Yoh An says) candidate so that they still get a solid primary vote in the mid-to-high 20s that ensures the Liberals aren’t competitive in a 2CP and keeps them looking competitive for future elections.

There is actually a good chance that this seat does become a GRN v ALP contest down the track (as I’ve said, the overlapping federal result would have been), so while I think it’s in Labor’s best interest to let the Greens have it for now, I don’t think they should totally write it off as a future prospect, and should try to at least maintain a competitive position and profile in the area.

Trent – given Westaway’s decent profile, if she loses in 2026 (which is highly likely) could she be considered as a contender for an overlapping/adjacent federal seat such as Kooyong? She would be a strong challenger against Monique Ryan if she were to run in 2028.

Especially if Amelia Hamer ends up winning Malvern (which I believe she is a front-runner to be preselected for) then that takes her out of the Kooyong race, so I assume Westaway would be a contender for that preselection. Very similar to Katie Allen losing Prahran in 2018 and then winning Higgins in 2019.

Westaway would be a good fit for Kooyong, the only barrier to that could be if Hamer misses Malvern or if Frydenberg choose to run. If O’Brien stayed until the next election, Westaway could throw her hat into the Malvern preselection, and the Liberals could keep preselection off until a few weeks out from the election so not to effect Westaway representing Prahran.

Agree Trent, the Liberals need more moderate candidates to run for the teal heartland seats. Westaway if successful in winning Kooyong would be like Tim Wilson in neighbouring Goldstein, being seen as leadership material and likely being appointed to a shadow Cabinet role.

Also Labor should preselect a progressive woman to run in Prahran. A professional / doctor type. They would be competitive without Labor even needing to throw resources here that could be used elsewhere. It would likely eat into Rachel Westaway’s vote among ALP/LIB swing voters as well as appealing to GRN/ALP swing voters, giving Labor their best chance of making the 2CP by trying to gobble up the centre and snatch 1-2% or so from both flanks.

I think Michelle Ananda-Rajah’s 2022 win in Higgins was partly a result of that. She appealed to teal-leaning Liberal voters as well as the more professional/affluent Greens voters.

@Trent If Labor was to take Prahran seriously then perhaps Fiona McLeod (Higgins candidate 2019) would be a good fit. She’s pretty left wing, a professional and fairly sensible. Michelle Anandah-Rajah’s in the Senate for at least 6 years now and she’s part of the right faction, a pro-Israel senator which would not work well for Prahran at all.

Good point Tommo9, Fiona McLeod or someone like her would be a great choice for Prahran.

I think a Westaway vs McLeod vs Di Camillo contest could potentially make a 3CP result similar to Macnamara 2022 (where all 3 parties are between 32-34%) a real possibility, if someone like McLeod was able to eat into enough of the swing vote from both flanks.

It’s worth noting that the 2018 result was on previous boundaries that included Toorak; on current boundaries the redistributed 2018 3CP would probably have been that (all 3 between 32-34%) and may even have possibly wound up an ALP v GRN contest.

Fiona could be a better leadership option for the left faction ahead of Williams

@Tommo9 the only place in Prahran being pro-Israel or neutral would have an effect is in St Kilda maybe. Most Aussies don’t really care about Israel (even if most people don’t like them they don’t really have a lot to do with Australia).

Went to vic parliament today. In the gallery. If i didnt know any better I would think I was looking at a bunch of pre schoolers in kindergarden

@Nether Portal which kind of goes to my point. If Labor decided to put Ananda-Rajah (if she lost the Senate run, hypothetically) in Prahran then that’s a bad fit because she’s very pro-Israel and the electorate isn’t (apart from St Kilda East). It would be like having a conservative Liberal running in a now Teal seat (never mind that those were represented once by Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey etc). My suggestion of Fiona McLeod comes from the fact that she’s more left-wing, a lawyer by profession and fairly pragmatic and sensible from what I’ve heard of her in the 2019 campaign. She would suit a seat like Prahran whilst someone like Ananda-Rajah would be suitable to Caulfield.

From Rachel’s profile, she has a Chinese/Thai background, giving her a possible advantage with Kooyong’s Chinese community.

@John, could you please retract your comment? Very offensive to preschoolers to be compared to politicians – the preschoolers would have been much better behaved…… And the teacher would not accept the type of behavior one might see in Parliament. And unlike politicians the average 4 year will not commence defamation proceedings as they know after watching the Ben Roberts-Smith, Demming / Pesuto, Higgns defamation cases to name a few the defamation legal system only has one winner – the lawyers……

Interesting how the Greens have announced candidates for Prahran as well as other seats. They’re certainly going in early.

On the topic of Michelle Ananda-Rajah, if she weren’t in the senate and she were running for Vic parliament, she’d be a better fit for Caulfield. She is openly pro-Israel and a Labor Right member and a professional/doctor type who can appeal better to white-collar professionals.

RE Michelle Ananda-Rajah
I am not sure if she is personally passionately Pro-Israel or while she was member for Higgins she just had to reflect the views of her electorate. I mentioned in Corangamite thread Sarah Henderson since becoming a Senator has become more right-wing now that she can speak her mind more openly. I think Michelle Ananda-Rajah probably joined the right faction to appeal to Liberal voters and present herself as a fiscal conservative and no connections to the union movement. That is different from say Senator Raff Ciccicone who is socially conservative but afflilated to SDA he is more a DLP type. Someone like Raff Ciccione who is also Hawkish on Foreign policy was certainly not be selected for Prahran. I doubt she wil be selected for Caulfield in any case. Caulfield is not a target seat in 2026 and i expect there to be a Jewish swing to Libs in any case like we saw at a federal level while i expect in a seat like Greenvale an increase in Socialist/Green vote and a swing to Left reversing antilockdown sentiment due to Muslims shifting Left.

Votante the Greens tend to run long ground campaigns in target seats, in places at the federal election (Wills in particular) I believe I heard they had been actively campaigning over a year before the election. So not at all surprising they’re announcing their lead candidates early.