Prahran – Victoria 2026

With Labor not contesting the by-election that has hurt their chances of winning here anytime soon. For the time being I’d say lean Liberal.

I can’t see any realistic way that the Liberals hold this.

Keep in mind that, if you exclude the byelection, by 2022 the Liberal 2PP in Prahran was about -7 compared to their statewide 2PP. The overlapping results in the recent federal election (which I’ll get to in more detail as well) were actually -11 compared to their statewide 2PP which is a consistent continuation of the trend over recent elections.

Based on these trends, the Coalition would likely need a statewide 2PP in the high-50s (or at least mid-50s if you give Westaway a sophomore advantage) to get around 50% in Prahran.

What about the byelection? Well that was very unique in that there was no Labor candidate but also a perfect storm of other favourable factors for the Liberals. Even if we completely ignore the lack of a Labor candidate and the Lupton/IND factor and just look at primary votes, it’s clear that in a normal contest where all 3 major parties are on the ballot, the Liberals will need a primary vote well into the 40s to win – probably at least 42% noting they have even lost with 44% before.

The byelection had all these factors in their favour:
* Very low turnout which evidence points to being lowest in St Kilda & Southbank (where they do the worst);
* No broader election campaign meant no focus on parties or leaders, making it just a candidate vs candidate local contest;
* No Labor candidate also meant no broader attack campaign against the Libs (Greens didn’t run one);
* No risk of a Liberal government enabled a protest vote;
* Importantly, the byelection was held at the absolute peak of the Liberals’ polling (around 41%)

Despite all those favourable conditions, they could only muster a 36% primary vote, well below their statewide polling at the time. And that is not a winning primary vote when both Labor & Greens are on the ballot. In a general election without all those factors, it is hard to see them outperforming that 36% by much (if at all).

I’d guess they will remain around the 35-36% range. Westaway’s incumbency will be a + but cancelled out by the lack of all those other factors.

I calculated the overlapping federal results, using a method that was probably overly favourable to the Liberals (deliberately overestimated the postal vote and didn’t factor in the absent vote at all), and got these primary votes:
ALP – 34.1
GRN – 30.9
LIB – 27.5 (only 22% at the actual polling places!)

That would clearly have been an ALP v GRN 2CP, and based on 2PP preference flows in Melbourne & Macnamara would have been around a 66-34 ALP v LIB 2PP.

Now, I’m not saying that a result anywhere near that will be repeated. VIC Labor are not as popular as Federal Labor. Libs have an incumbent candidate. I’m 99% certain that the Liberals will make the 2CP, and it’s extremely likely they will win the primary vote. However, there’s no way they are outperforming their overlapping federal result by +16 (!!) and their 2022 result by +12.

In short (after a long post!), I would disregard the byelection result as being a meaningless anomaly because of all the very unique & specific factors involved. The overlapping federal result – looking at Prahran vs State rather than the result itself – reinforced a continuation of the trend up to 2022 rather than a reversal of it.

My prediction is the Liberal 2PP/2CP will remain at least a -5 compared to their state 2PP (that is actually a +2 compared to 2022 to allow for incumbency switching from Hibbins to Westaway).

I think it will be roughly a 56-44 GRN 2CP off primary votes of around 35 LIB, 30 GRN & 27 ALP.

Hibbins had a significant personal vote, the Greens used to be very hard to budge once they got in as their local machine was strong and they pitched themselves successfully as fierce local campaigners, harder message to sell when Chapel st is a retail ghost-town, palestine protests disrupt the city every weekend etc etc. Likewise the Green vote has undergone a significant realignment since 2022 where they’ve significantly lost ground with affluent highly educated professionals and gained significant ground with CALD lower socio-economic voters. The ground is shifting under their feet too – young people are leaving the inner cities on net rather than flocking to them as per my analysis of the electoral roll leading up to the Fed election (most strikingly in Macnamara I found). Just as those arguments about Liberal primary being pretty below par at 36% the same argument very much applies to the Greens in Labor’s absence.

Agree it’s a really tough hold for the Liberals without the specifics of the Feb by-election though, for them to hold they would need to run an exceptionally good central campaign and for Battin to emerge as the significantly favoured leader, which is the one ingredient they didn’t have in Feb I should note

I 100% agree with all of that Maxim.

It’s why I can’t see the Greens getting anywhere near a 36% primary vote again either. A large chunk of that was Hibbins’ personal vote. If they only got that at a byelection without Labor running, a good 5-6% of that at least would have to have come from Labor voters who chose the only ‘left’ option they were familiar with.

The overlapping federal results (which factor in postals & early votes) had roughly a 31% GRN primary vote, that was in the context of big GRN to ALP swings in both Melbourne & Macnamara too.

There’s no particular reason though, especially with a state Labor government less popular than its federal counterparts, Gaza being less of an issue at state level, and Prahran having a LOT of housing commission that Labor plan to tear down and the Greens are fighting to keep, that the Greens will do worse at state level than federal level.

So I do expect the Greens’ primary vote to still sit around 30%. Which would clearly be a winning a primary vote in a contest where the combined GRN/ALP vote is at or above 55%. Whereas the Liberals would need a primary vote in the 40s to be competitive.

Basically, the Greens can underperform their byelection result by a good 7-8% and still win; the Liberals would need to overperform their byelection result by probably at least 6% to be competitive to win.

The greens will win this. Though after the redistribution it might get interesting if the liberal voting areas are moved.

“The ground is shifting under their feet too – young people are leaving the inner cities on net rather than flocking to them”

This puts into words something that I have thought might have a political impact. Just as an example – when I was in my early to mid twenties, I and almost all of my friends who had grown up in the suburbs were living in shared houses in the inner city. Most were leftish and had taken their left votes from Liberal seats to the inner city. My kids are in their mid 20s – all living at home because they are still studying or can’t afford to move out. Lots of their friends still live at home or live in share houses in middle class suburbia – more affordable than the inner city. How many votes in suburban seats have Labor and the Greens picked up from this demographic – definitely the kids votes in my household and lots among their friends. This in what are now marginal Liberal or Teal seats.

@Darth Vader, I may be biased because I live there but I’ve always thought it’s a bit odd that the St Kilda area is split between so many seats, since it’s such a focal point of Melbourne with really its own identity that’s quite different to all the neighbouring areas. If anywhere in the inner city should be the focus of a seat, St Kilda seems like a prime candidate.

I know though that without crossing the river, the numbers really just necessitated it because both Prahran & Albert Park otherwise wouldn’t really have enough numbers.

However, with the development of Fisherman’s Bend, that may necessitate Albert Park shrinking to lose its share of St Kilda. That would probably be an opportunity for the commission to create a seat based more on the old ‘City of St Kilda’ with St Kilda, St Kilda East, Balaclava & Elwood as its focal point, and likely also include Windsor.

That would certainly allow Caulfield to shift east and unite Murrumbeena with Carnegie & Glen Huntly (a very good outcome) while also removing Elwood from Brighton (another good outcome from a community of interest perspective), but then it creates a problem for Prahran & South Yarra.

The new St Kilda based seat could probably asborb Prahran (west of Williams), Albert Park could absorb South Yarra west of Punt Road and Malvern could absborb the ‘Prahran East’ locality which fits nicely but that still leaves the heart of South Yarra homeless. Does it cross the river to unite with Cremorne?

Or does the commission just do what it proposed in 2021: “South Yarra West” (west of Punt) shifts into Albert Park in exchange for the remainder of St Kilda uniting in Prahran with the entire Chapel St corridor.

That would certainly make Albert Park more winnable for the Liberals, but while also probably turning Prahran into an ALP v GRN contest (and therefore an ALP seat).

I can see Labor orienting their campaign around the inner city – emphasise Brad Battin’s social conservatism and try to win seats like Hawthorn, Brighton, Malvern, Kew, Sandringham (or erode the Lib vote for teals) while sandbagging seats like Ashwood, Mount Waverley, the more affluent parts of the Sandbelt seats etc. They would also want Richmond and Melbourne back from Greens. Bet on any outer suburban political realignment not happening or not being enough to actually cost them many seats. Hope that Allan being a Bendigo MP and the strength of local members keep them going in regional centres, plus hope for more rural independents.

In that scenario, Labor are very well positioned in Prahran and would likely come out on top of the 3 cornered contests.

Even in a bad election Prahran is a potential Labor gain from Liberal because as Trent points out the Liberals really are far behind here, while the Greens are also diminished. I think it’s now quite credible that a good chunk of Labor’s vote was tied up in the Green vote (plus Lupton and absent), and the “steady” vote really was a disaster in disguise. Di Camillo seems to still be actively campaigning though so may be able to hold prominence against a generic Labor candidate. If Labor pick a high profile candidate it’s over.

@ BNJ
i really doubt Labor will win Malvern or Kew they did not win in 2018 when Liberals ran a very right wing campaign. Also the very rich seats have a lot of private school students, land tax and state debt will make them more unpopular. Seats like Ashwood, Glen Waverly, Ringwood really should be Liberals seats so really it is embrassing for the Libs if they dont win them.
I think Labor is doing well in Sandbelt, Narre Warrens and Cranbourne (dont really see them in play)
the 4 outer suburban seats i see in play that are traditionally Labor held are Melton, Yan Yean, Sunbury/Niddrie
3 regional seats where Coalition could win Bendigo East, Eureka and Ripon.
2 other Red wall seats with an outside chance of a Loss but i doubt it (Sydenham/Werribee)

Futhermore 3 outer SE seats in play simply due to low margins
1. Bass
2. Hastings
3. Pakenham

@Nimalan – agree with your points. I struggle to see Labor winning Kew when federally it is in a tealish seat. And Malvern is at an 8% margin which also infers Labor won’t bother.

I think Labor should focus on sandbagging a few marginals like Pakenham, Bass, Hastings, Ripon etc., probably aim for Richmond due to a disliked Greens MP, and Prahran as the Greens and Liberals will likely be decimated. Just my thoughts though.

@ James
I always warn the Labor party not to a mir of Sky After Dark and go after Super wealthy seats and the Made in Chelsea set, that is the Teals job. Friendlyjordies who is very Pro-Labor also does not want Labor to focus on such seats. Labor party is the party of Rooty Hill not Bellvue Hill and Rosemeadow not Rose Bay. I think Labor would be ok to accept a 2014 style win a narrow majority/minority with Greens only after 12 yeats. Pakneham, Bass and Hastings will all be Liberal on 2014 results but Ripon Labor on current boundaries. Ripon is more determined by local issues than statewide issues.
Even if the Greens win Prahran it still benefits Labor by keeping out of Liberal hands.

*mirror

That’s a good analysis Blue Not John and I agree with you.

The 2000s & 2010s seemed to be a steady swing from ALP to Greens in the inner city. That has not only come to a halt but recent elections have evidence of it reversing. Labor also ran a pretty weak candidate (not even sure she was local) not much of a campaign in Prahran in 2022, that’s probably a factor that also helped boost Sam Hibbins’ huge primary vote swing too.

If they run a good candidate this time and put effort in, then I think Prahran will be an extremely close 3CP contest between ALP & GRN again (similar to 2018, with the winner comfortably defeating the Liberals probably with a high-50s 2CP). It’s definitely a seat they should target.

Sitting out the byelection clearly didn’t hurt them in overlapping area in the federal election either so I don’t think they’ll be punished for that.

To be clear, I think Malvern, Kew, Brighton and Sandringham are better off as teal targets, but Labor can focus a campaign on depressing the Liberal vote there and shoring up the parts of their base that don’t like teals but would follow an HTV. Teal gains will ultimately lead to the Liberals being even further away from every forming government (and sidelining the Greens further into irrelevance).

Hawthorn is 50/50 as to whether Labor helps a teal or tries to win it for themselves. Teal to Labor preference flows were quite strong in Victoria 2022 at any rate so they don’t have to commit to one or the other

To add Trent, Labor seem to be doing well with the “small-l liberal”/”doctors wives” demographic in their own right and could well have leapfrogged the Greens as their preferred party (behind teals). I do think Greens are still doing well with the traditional student and young professional demographic but many of them are who would have previously lived in inner city seats are now living with their parents in middle ring/outer suburbs, or priced out into regional centres and less gentrified suburbs.

@ BNJ
I do think Trent is correct that Labor is doing well with the “Small-l liberal/doctors wives” demographic in their own right in the absence of a Teal and ahead of the Greens (since maybe 2024. Bennelong (current boundaries), Chisholm (west of Warrigal Road) and Ryan (Labor nearly won) probably show this. However, i think the point is i still Teal is a better option for this demographic. Plus the red wall has some cracks so they need focus some resources to patch that.
At the 2022 election, i think there was a believe that in the absence of a Teal. Greens will pick up that vote

With Labor likely going to lose outer suburban or regional seats, I wouldn’t be surprised if they orient resources and make a play for inner city seats like Prahran, Melbourne, Richmond and Hawthorn. This is to try their luck at offsetting losses elsewhere in Greater Melbourne and Victoria. It is also to see if they could pull off a surprise win like Labor did in Melbourne at the federal election.

Blue Not John, you made some good points there. I agree that some inner-city Liberal heartland seats like Kew and Malvern are unwinnable for Labor.

The Greens result at the by-election could be a sign of things to come. The Greens primary vote stayed static when Labor didn’t even run. It’s possible that the Greens vote is trending downwards in teal-ish or more upper-class, inner-city suburbs. I think that at the recent federal election, in seats like Melbourne (especially in Richmond and Cremorne) and Brisbane, teal-ish Greens and Liberal voters swung to Labor and helped Labor gain both. However, the federal election could be an outlier as Labor did surprisingly well.

The federal election was an outlier as the libs screwed themselves. I can’t see labor winning this unless it turns into a labor vs grn contest. Labor are better off waiting for the redistribution and pushing the seat towards St Kilda.

I agree the federal election was an outlier, but the overlapping federal result would have been an absolutely thumping win for Labor where not only would it have been an ALP v GRN 2CP that they would have won by close to double-digits, but they also would have comfortably won the primary vote.

That’s definitely an outlier and won’t be repeated at the state election, it’ll more than likely be another race like 2018 where the Liberals win the primary vote but lose to whoever finishes higher out of Labor & Greens; but given the Greens no longer have Hibbins’ incumbency, there does appear to be a small GRN to ALP shift in these type of areas, and Labor’s federal result was so emphatic, I don’t think that a repeat of a similar result to 2018 where the gap between ALP & GRN was miniscule is unrealistic, and either could win.

I do still lean towards a Greens win, because if Labor couldn’t beat the Greens at their high watermark of 2018 then I don’t think 2026 will be more favourable, but there are some factors (no Greens incumbency and the recent shift from the Greens in the inner-city) that could offset that and make it competitive.