Prahran – Victoria 2026

With Labor not contesting the by-election that has hurt their chances of winning here anytime soon. For the time being I’d say lean Liberal.

I can’t see any realistic way that the Liberals hold this.

Keep in mind that, if you exclude the byelection, by 2022 the Liberal 2PP in Prahran was about -7 compared to their statewide 2PP. The overlapping results in the recent federal election (which I’ll get to in more detail as well) were actually -11 compared to their statewide 2PP which is a consistent continuation of the trend over recent elections.

Based on these trends, the Coalition would likely need a statewide 2PP in the high-50s (or at least mid-50s if you give Westaway a sophomore advantage) to get around 50% in Prahran.

What about the byelection? Well that was very unique in that there was no Labor candidate but also a perfect storm of other favourable factors for the Liberals. Even if we completely ignore the lack of a Labor candidate and the Lupton/IND factor and just look at primary votes, it’s clear that in a normal contest where all 3 major parties are on the ballot, the Liberals will need a primary vote well into the 40s to win – probably at least 42% noting they have even lost with 44% before.

The byelection had all these factors in their favour:
* Very low turnout which evidence points to being lowest in St Kilda & Southbank (where they do the worst);
* No broader election campaign meant no focus on parties or leaders, making it just a candidate vs candidate local contest;
* No Labor candidate also meant no broader attack campaign against the Libs (Greens didn’t run one);
* No risk of a Liberal government enabled a protest vote;
* Importantly, the byelection was held at the absolute peak of the Liberals’ polling (around 41%)

Despite all those favourable conditions, they could only muster a 36% primary vote, well below their statewide polling at the time. And that is not a winning primary vote when both Labor & Greens are on the ballot. In a general election without all those factors, it is hard to see them outperforming that 36% by much (if at all).

I’d guess they will remain around the 35-36% range. Westaway’s incumbency will be a + but cancelled out by the lack of all those other factors.

I calculated the overlapping federal results, using a method that was probably overly favourable to the Liberals (deliberately overestimated the postal vote and didn’t factor in the absent vote at all), and got these primary votes:
ALP – 34.1
GRN – 30.9
LIB – 27.5 (only 22% at the actual polling places!)

That would clearly have been an ALP v GRN 2CP, and based on 2PP preference flows in Melbourne & Macnamara would have been around a 66-34 ALP v LIB 2PP.

Now, I’m not saying that a result anywhere near that will be repeated. VIC Labor are not as popular as Federal Labor. Libs have an incumbent candidate. I’m 99% certain that the Liberals will make the 2CP, and it’s extremely likely they will win the primary vote. However, there’s no way they are outperforming their overlapping federal result by +16 (!!) and their 2022 result by +12.

In short (after a long post!), I would disregard the byelection result as being a meaningless anomaly because of all the very unique & specific factors involved. The overlapping federal result – looking at Prahran vs State rather than the result itself – reinforced a continuation of the trend up to 2022 rather than a reversal of it.

My prediction is the Liberal 2PP/2CP will remain at least a -5 compared to their state 2PP (that is actually a +2 compared to 2022 to allow for incumbency switching from Hibbins to Westaway).

I think it will be roughly a 56-44 GRN 2CP off primary votes of around 35 LIB, 30 GRN & 27 ALP.

Hibbins had a significant personal vote, the Greens used to be very hard to budge once they got in as their local machine was strong and they pitched themselves successfully as fierce local campaigners, harder message to sell when Chapel st is a retail ghost-town, palestine protests disrupt the city every weekend etc etc. Likewise the Green vote has undergone a significant realignment since 2022 where they’ve significantly lost ground with affluent highly educated professionals and gained significant ground with CALD lower socio-economic voters. The ground is shifting under their feet too – young people are leaving the inner cities on net rather than flocking to them as per my analysis of the electoral roll leading up to the Fed election (most strikingly in Macnamara I found). Just as those arguments about Liberal primary being pretty below par at 36% the same argument very much applies to the Greens in Labor’s absence.

Agree it’s a really tough hold for the Liberals without the specifics of the Feb by-election though, for them to hold they would need to run an exceptionally good central campaign and for Battin to emerge as the significantly favoured leader, which is the one ingredient they didn’t have in Feb I should note

I 100% agree with all of that Maxim.

It’s why I can’t see the Greens getting anywhere near a 36% primary vote again either. A large chunk of that was Hibbins’ personal vote. If they only got that at a byelection without Labor running, a good 5-6% of that at least would have to have come from Labor voters who chose the only ‘left’ option they were familiar with.

The overlapping federal results (which factor in postals & early votes) had roughly a 31% GRN primary vote, that was in the context of big GRN to ALP swings in both Melbourne & Macnamara too.

There’s no particular reason though, especially with a state Labor government less popular than its federal counterparts, Gaza being less of an issue at state level, and Prahran having a LOT of housing commission that Labor plan to tear down and the Greens are fighting to keep, that the Greens will do worse at state level than federal level.

So I do expect the Greens’ primary vote to still sit around 30%. Which would clearly be a winning a primary vote in a contest where the combined GRN/ALP vote is at or above 55%. Whereas the Liberals would need a primary vote in the 40s to be competitive.

Basically, the Greens can underperform their byelection result by a good 7-8% and still win; the Liberals would need to overperform their byelection result by probably at least 6% to be competitive to win.

The greens will win this. Though after the redistribution it might get interesting if the liberal voting areas are moved.

“The ground is shifting under their feet too – young people are leaving the inner cities on net rather than flocking to them”

This puts into words something that I have thought might have a political impact. Just as an example – when I was in my early to mid twenties, I and almost all of my friends who had grown up in the suburbs were living in shared houses in the inner city. Most were leftish and had taken their left votes from Liberal seats to the inner city. My kids are in their mid 20s – all living at home because they are still studying or can’t afford to move out. Lots of their friends still live at home or live in share houses in middle class suburbia – more affordable than the inner city. How many votes in suburban seats have Labor and the Greens picked up from this demographic – definitely the kids votes in my household and lots among their friends. This in what are now marginal Liberal or Teal seats.

@Darth Vader, I may be biased because I live there but I’ve always thought it’s a bit odd that the St Kilda area is split between so many seats, since it’s such a focal point of Melbourne with really its own identity that’s quite different to all the neighbouring areas. If anywhere in the inner city should be the focus of a seat, St Kilda seems like a prime candidate.

I know though that without crossing the river, the numbers really just necessitated it because both Prahran & Albert Park otherwise wouldn’t really have enough numbers.

However, with the development of Fisherman’s Bend, that may necessitate Albert Park shrinking to lose its share of St Kilda. That would probably be an opportunity for the commission to create a seat based more on the old ‘City of St Kilda’ with St Kilda, St Kilda East, Balaclava & Elwood as its focal point, and likely also include Windsor.

That would certainly allow Caulfield to shift east and unite Murrumbeena with Carnegie & Glen Huntly (a very good outcome) while also removing Elwood from Brighton (another good outcome from a community of interest perspective), but then it creates a problem for Prahran & South Yarra.

The new St Kilda based seat could probably asborb Prahran (west of Williams), Albert Park could absorb South Yarra west of Punt Road and Malvern could absborb the ‘Prahran East’ locality which fits nicely but that still leaves the heart of South Yarra homeless. Does it cross the river to unite with Cremorne?

Or does the commission just do what it proposed in 2021: “South Yarra West” (west of Punt) shifts into Albert Park in exchange for the remainder of St Kilda uniting in Prahran with the entire Chapel St corridor.

That would certainly make Albert Park more winnable for the Liberals, but while also probably turning Prahran into an ALP v GRN contest (and therefore an ALP seat).

I can see Labor orienting their campaign around the inner city – emphasise Brad Battin’s social conservatism and try to win seats like Hawthorn, Brighton, Malvern, Kew, Sandringham (or erode the Lib vote for teals) while sandbagging seats like Ashwood, Mount Waverley, the more affluent parts of the Sandbelt seats etc. They would also want Richmond and Melbourne back from Greens. Bet on any outer suburban political realignment not happening or not being enough to actually cost them many seats. Hope that Allan being a Bendigo MP and the strength of local members keep them going in regional centres, plus hope for more rural independents.

In that scenario, Labor are very well positioned in Prahran and would likely come out on top of the 3 cornered contests.

Even in a bad election Prahran is a potential Labor gain from Liberal because as Trent points out the Liberals really are far behind here, while the Greens are also diminished. I think it’s now quite credible that a good chunk of Labor’s vote was tied up in the Green vote (plus Lupton and absent), and the “steady” vote really was a disaster in disguise. Di Camillo seems to still be actively campaigning though so may be able to hold prominence against a generic Labor candidate. If Labor pick a high profile candidate it’s over.

@ BNJ
i really doubt Labor will win Malvern or Kew they did not win in 2018 when Liberals ran a very right wing campaign. Also the very rich seats have a lot of private school students, land tax and state debt will make them more unpopular. Seats like Ashwood, Glen Waverly, Ringwood really should be Liberals seats so really it is embrassing for the Libs if they dont win them.
I think Labor is doing well in Sandbelt, Narre Warrens and Cranbourne (dont really see them in play)
the 4 outer suburban seats i see in play that are traditionally Labor held are Melton, Yan Yean, Sunbury/Niddrie
3 regional seats where Coalition could win Bendigo East, Eureka and Ripon.
2 other Red wall seats with an outside chance of a Loss but i doubt it (Sydenham/Werribee)

Futhermore 3 outer SE seats in play simply due to low margins
1. Bass
2. Hastings
3. Pakenham

@Nimalan – agree with your points. I struggle to see Labor winning Kew when federally it is in a tealish seat. And Malvern is at an 8% margin which also infers Labor won’t bother.

I think Labor should focus on sandbagging a few marginals like Pakenham, Bass, Hastings, Ripon etc., probably aim for Richmond due to a disliked Greens MP, and Prahran as the Greens and Liberals will likely be decimated. Just my thoughts though.

@ James
I always warn the Labor party not to a mir of Sky After Dark and go after Super wealthy seats and the Made in Chelsea set, that is the Teals job. Friendlyjordies who is very Pro-Labor also does not want Labor to focus on such seats. Labor party is the party of Rooty Hill not Bellvue Hill and Rosemeadow not Rose Bay. I think Labor would be ok to accept a 2014 style win a narrow majority/minority with Greens only after 12 yeats. Pakneham, Bass and Hastings will all be Liberal on 2014 results but Ripon Labor on current boundaries. Ripon is more determined by local issues than statewide issues.
Even if the Greens win Prahran it still benefits Labor by keeping out of Liberal hands.

*mirror

That’s a good analysis Blue Not John and I agree with you.

The 2000s & 2010s seemed to be a steady swing from ALP to Greens in the inner city. That has not only come to a halt but recent elections have evidence of it reversing. Labor also ran a pretty weak candidate (not even sure she was local) not much of a campaign in Prahran in 2022, that’s probably a factor that also helped boost Sam Hibbins’ huge primary vote swing too.

If they run a good candidate this time and put effort in, then I think Prahran will be an extremely close 3CP contest between ALP & GRN again (similar to 2018, with the winner comfortably defeating the Liberals probably with a high-50s 2CP). It’s definitely a seat they should target.

Sitting out the byelection clearly didn’t hurt them in overlapping area in the federal election either so I don’t think they’ll be punished for that.

To be clear, I think Malvern, Kew, Brighton and Sandringham are better off as teal targets, but Labor can focus a campaign on depressing the Liberal vote there and shoring up the parts of their base that don’t like teals but would follow an HTV. Teal gains will ultimately lead to the Liberals being even further away from every forming government (and sidelining the Greens further into irrelevance).

Hawthorn is 50/50 as to whether Labor helps a teal or tries to win it for themselves. Teal to Labor preference flows were quite strong in Victoria 2022 at any rate so they don’t have to commit to one or the other

To add Trent, Labor seem to be doing well with the “small-l liberal”/”doctors wives” demographic in their own right and could well have leapfrogged the Greens as their preferred party (behind teals). I do think Greens are still doing well with the traditional student and young professional demographic but many of them are who would have previously lived in inner city seats are now living with their parents in middle ring/outer suburbs, or priced out into regional centres and less gentrified suburbs.

@ BNJ
I do think Trent is correct that Labor is doing well with the “Small-l liberal/doctors wives” demographic in their own right in the absence of a Teal and ahead of the Greens (since maybe 2024. Bennelong (current boundaries), Chisholm (west of Warrigal Road) and Ryan (Labor nearly won) probably show this. However, i think the point is i still Teal is a better option for this demographic. Plus the red wall has some cracks so they need focus some resources to patch that.
At the 2022 election, i think there was a believe that in the absence of a Teal. Greens will pick up that vote

With Labor likely going to lose outer suburban or regional seats, I wouldn’t be surprised if they orient resources and make a play for inner city seats like Prahran, Melbourne, Richmond and Hawthorn. This is to try their luck at offsetting losses elsewhere in Greater Melbourne and Victoria. It is also to see if they could pull off a surprise win like Labor did in Melbourne at the federal election.

Blue Not John, you made some good points there. I agree that some inner-city Liberal heartland seats like Kew and Malvern are unwinnable for Labor.

The Greens result at the by-election could be a sign of things to come. The Greens primary vote stayed static when Labor didn’t even run. It’s possible that the Greens vote is trending downwards in teal-ish or more upper-class, inner-city suburbs. I think that at the recent federal election, in seats like Melbourne (especially in Richmond and Cremorne) and Brisbane, teal-ish Greens and Liberal voters swung to Labor and helped Labor gain both. However, the federal election could be an outlier as Labor did surprisingly well.

The federal election was an outlier as the libs screwed themselves. I can’t see labor winning this unless it turns into a labor vs grn contest. Labor are better off waiting for the redistribution and pushing the seat towards St Kilda.

I agree the federal election was an outlier, but the overlapping federal result would have been an absolutely thumping win for Labor where not only would it have been an ALP v GRN 2CP that they would have won by close to double-digits, but they also would have comfortably won the primary vote.

That’s definitely an outlier and won’t be repeated at the state election, it’ll more than likely be another race like 2018 where the Liberals win the primary vote but lose to whoever finishes higher out of Labor & Greens; but given the Greens no longer have Hibbins’ incumbency, there does appear to be a small GRN to ALP shift in these type of areas, and Labor’s federal result was so emphatic, I don’t think that a repeat of a similar result to 2018 where the gap between ALP & GRN was miniscule is unrealistic, and either could win.

I do still lean towards a Greens win, because if Labor couldn’t beat the Greens at their high watermark of 2018 then I don’t think 2026 will be more favourable, but there are some factors (no Greens incumbency and the recent shift from the Greens in the inner-city) that could offset that and make it competitive.

If a teal runs here it would likely hurt the Greens chances of regaining this seat and Sam Hibbins damage to the Greens brand won’t assist either.

A teal could possibly hurt the Liberal chances even more in Prahran because, other than a byelection (and Rachel Westaway remains pretty unknown), this has been a non-Liberal seat for all but 4 years from 2002-25, and a pretty safe non-Liberal seat in the last decade too.

That means all the reasons that Labor/Greens voters have to tactically vote ‘teal’ in Liberal seats like Kooyong & Goldstein aren’t present here. But there are plenty of reasons for the Liberal voters to vote for a teal.

I think the talk of a ‘teal demographic’ here is a bit outdated too. Even the mainstream reporting of the byelection kept referring to Prahran as including Toorak in it, which it hasn’t since 2021.

There are really only two pockets of this seat which I’d consider to be teal-ish: “Prahran East” (the part in Kooyong) and parts of South Yarra (but decreasingly so). Prahran, Windsor, St Kilda & St Kilda East, and even the southern parts of South Yarra now, are solid red/green territory where I don’t think a teal would cut into their vote.

So I think a teal’s vote would probably come more at the expense of Rachel Westaway than Labor or Greens. She may get a significant amount back via preferences but the net result would likely be that preferences would bleed away from her.

Given she only got 36% at an extremely favourable byelection where all indications are that there was especially poor turnout in the most left-wing / least Liberal part and among Labor voters, even without a teal she’s probably only looking at a primary vote in the 34-36% range even factoring in an incumbency advantage. Anything under 40% isn’t going to be a winning primary vote, but if a teal cuts into her primary by even 2-3% it would really be a nail in the coffin for her chances I think.

But I do agree it could hurt the Greens, because I think a teal would appeal more to Greens voters than Labor voters, especially in this seat. So, in a seat where – without a teal – my guess is that similar to 2018 it will be an extremely close 3CP race between Labor & Greens with the winner comfortably defeating the Liberal, anything that reduces the Greens’ primary vote probably assists Labor more than anyone else.

Trent I agree,
It’s likely a tight 3 way race with the Greens, Teal and Liberals making it, Labor will in a distant 4th place. I am not a local so I’m not sure how active Rachel Westaway is within here electorate but, by the time the state election rolls around she could build some sort of profile kinda like Mary Doyle after her by-election win.

@ Trent
Having a Teal can change the ordering. I dont think Labor will come in 4th but they could get less than 25% of the PV which would be lowest Labor vote ever. I think Greens will get around 27% PV, Libs around 32% and the Teals the remainder. In Caulfield and Albert Park where a Teal came 4th in 2022 the Teals vote flowed to Greens mostly so the Teals could help secure Greens a place in the 2CP and prevent Labor winning it.

There’s also a chance Tony Lupton runs again for Labor and he’ll definitely preference the teal and Liberals above the Greens. For the Greens to win this seat they need a higher primary vote or other left wing parties to favour them which seem to be absent here so you could just get a gang up situation where everyone preferences each other for the sake of keeping the Greens out. A final note I’d make is the teals usually have an open ticket so their preferences won’t necessarily flow back to the Greens but could actually hurt them.

A Teal running in Prahran would test my theory that many Green voters are Liberal wets in exile from the Liberal Party. I would expect the Greens to outpoll a Teal around St Kilda East and maybe Prahran, however, South Yarra and Prahran East could be more Teal/Liberal wet.

Lupton is Persona Non-Grata in Labor these days, and was even spotted at an event for the Menzies Institute. From what I have heard, he probably isn’t running in Prahran next year (though he is still undecided) and might make a run for the upper house instead.

Probably agree Pencil, the teal independents today are akin to the former Australian Democrats party consisting of members who considered mainly of small ‘l’ liberals.

Looking at historical election results during the Howard era and prior, it appears the Democrats polled decently in many teal stronghold seats like Bradfield and Warringah during their heyday in the 1980’s and 90’s.

a teal might be helpful for the libs. whilst they wouldnt make the count agaisnt the libs they might push the libs out and the teal up against the greens or labor.

Teals have been pretty good at hoovering up Green vote depending on where they run, there’s no way they would push the Liberals out of the 2PP though, no matter what people tell you most teals are only capable of grabbing 10-20% of the Liberal vote at most. I suspect a teal running 2nd or 3rd (which would be a pretty good effort) would be helpful to the Liberals as it will probably cause some extra preference leakage depending on the order. The probability of a high rate of GRN – Teal defection has increased (if they run of course) given it’s no longer a GRN incumbent.

Liberal: 35
GRN: 21
Teal:18
ALP: 16
OTH: 10

That would make for an interesting count

How do Teal preferences tend to split between Liberals and The Greens?

@ Nicholas
I dont have an example where there was a LIB V GRN 2CP where there was a Teal in the mix. In Hawthorn in 2022 Teals flowed 74% ALP and 26% LIB see below.
What will be interesting is the 3CP stage if a 4th place Teal can help Greens into the 2CP against LIB.

https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-election-hawthorn-analysis-of-preferences/

Maxim,
If that were the case that would knock the Greens out of the ttp with being between Teal and Liberals which is really possibility.

a’

Rachel westaway is pretty popular in the area from what ive heard

Up the dragons,
Very interesting as that should help her hold especially if the environment becomes more pro Liberal and there is a large anti Labor swing in 2026.
I am expecting that Angelica Di Camillo will have another crack at this seat in 2026 along with Tony Lupin however if he runs as Labor candidate or independent will be interesting to see.

@ spacefish
tony Lupton is more DLP style socially conservative so I don’t think as a Labor candidate he will be successful these days.he may run as an independent and preference against Greens

Nimalan,
Agree with your assessment however like others have said in other threads Labor is defending so they could just get him to run due to name recognition so the Liberals and Greens have to waste time here.

Problem is that Tony Lupton will want to preference Greens last he is very Pro Israel that will cause trouble for Labor.

Teal campaigns are most effective in normally safe Liberal seats. They also did well in safe Labor seats (Bean, Fremantle) at the recent federal election. Prahran doesn’t fit the mould.

Teals rely on tactical voters who normally vote Labor or Greens and believe that the teals have a better fighting chance. They also rely on a sizable amount of Liberal voters to switch. I hear that a lot of teal volunteers are in fact Labor or Greens voters who are pragmatic and rational in getting behind a stronger, better-resourced campaign. A Labor or Greens campaign would generally run dead in a safe Liberal seat.

I think if there’s no teal running in Prahran then the Liberals would get the most primary votes. A teal candidate would hurt the Liberals by giving disgruntled Liberal voters an option that isn’t Labor or the Greens. Since Labor and Greens will be competitive and since this has mostly been a non-Liberal seat since 2022, there is less reason for Labor/Greens voters to tactically vote like they might have in Kooyong or Goldstein.

Still even if the end result is liberal vs teal. I think the libs would rather a teal in the seat then labor or the Greens.

I think Lupton has burnt his bridge with Labor. At the federal election he was handing out alternative flyers telling people to preference liberals over the Greens. He would absolutely not follow the labor htv and would do the same.

Let’s get to the brass tacks here, would a teal, prop up a minority Labor or minority Liberal government? I tend to think the former in most situations. Unless the bottom falls out for Labor between now and a year from now, the Liberals are probably looking at a minority situation of some kind at best. The current crossbench doesn’t seem friendly to them in a minority situation at this point.

I have a hard time seeing wet liberals parking with the Greens, then going to the Teals. Maybe on preferences, but not on primaries. Perhaps a decade ago, maybe when the Greens were more ecologically focused, but these days the Teals have taken that and the Greens have shifted to a more economic focus.

most likley a minority labor govt. teals are more closer to labor then they are liberals. if windsor oakshott, and wilkie supported a labor govt then a teal would too. how many of the teals were praising peter dutton after 2022? how many came out and badmouthed albo?

criad the cuuurent crossbench are all greens

Votante’s comment above is the most accurate reflection of this seat in my opinion.

Prahran isn’t a seat where a teal would really make much of a splash at all, it just doesn’t fit the mould. Brighton, Caulfield & Sandringham are much more ‘teal’ seats than Prahran and even in those seats, the teals only polled in single-digits in 2022.

The 2025 byelection in Prahran had a couple of teal-ish independents running, and the most any of them got was 5% (some of which would have been a donkey vote since it was the IND who was first on the ballot).

As for Tony Lupton, there is no way Labor would pre-select him to run. He only ran at the byelection because Labor chose to sit it out. Labor have a good chance at winning Prahran in 2026, they will pre-select someone who is appropriate for the seat, and they will preference the Greens above the Liberals like they always do. Unlike Macnamara, Prahran isn’t a Jewish seat so they won’t have any reason to run an open ticket. Their primary goal will be taking Prahran back out of the LIB column because every seat could count in a close election.

Also remember that the 2025 byelection was held at the absolute peak of the VIC Libs’ polling (they were polling a 42% primary vote at the time). The polls since then have shifted away from the Liberals.

While Rachel Westaway may get a small incumbency boost, that’s likely to be cancelled out by a lot of other favourable factors in the byelection not being present. So if she got 36% at a very favourable byelection held at a time when the Libs were polling around 42%, I can’t see her doing much better than 36% at the general election. And I don’t see any possible way she wins a 2CP count with a 36% primary vote, when both Labor & Greens run and preference each other.

A teal in the mix wouldn’t make a huge difference. And as Votante said, Prahran mostly doesn’t fit the mould of a teal seat at all (outside a couple of small pockets), and being a mostly non-Liberal seat since 2002 – and even moreso now on current boundaries with Toorak removed – means there’s really no reason for Labor & Greens voters to tactically vote teal like they do in Kooyong & Goldstein.

If a ‘teal’ were to run, I’d imagine primary votes something like:
LIB 34
GRN 27
ALP 25
TEAL 7
OTHERS 7

I’d estimate that’d be roughly a 40 (LIB) / 32 (GRN) / 28 (ALP) 3CP and 55-45 GRN v LIB 2CP.

With no teal running, I expect something like:
LIB 36
GRN 29
ALP 27
Others 8

The Liberals wouldn’t get above a 45% 2CP on those primary votes.

@ Trent
I agree with your analysis i expect Teal to come 4th on primaries votes. I personally feel Labor will drop slightly below 25% i think the Public Housing vote which is best for Labor is being diluted due to more Private rentals elsewhere which favours Greens more than Labor. If Tony Lupton was to run as an independent again next year i expect him to get no more than 6% with a higher turnout and an official Labor candidate.

Your forgetting though it’s might not be about tactical voting. Maybe the residents of Prahran want an independent rather then a green or labor who they’ve become disenfranchised with. There are other reasons people vote teal not just tactical voting.

@ John
There will be some people who prefer Teals to Greens, Labor and even Libs. These people are usually more centrist voters. However, we have seen before in a competative seat Teals usually flop for example Boothby-2022, Casey-2022 and Caulfield state -2022. There was also Albert Park-Georgia Drawbridge all came 4th. If there was no tactical voting in Kooyong in 2022 i assume the following
Libs-42%
Greens-16%
Monique Ryan-15%
Labor-14%

So in Prahran should a Teal run they will take votes from all parties but thats probably not enough to make it to double digits. It why a Teal probably would have not succeded in Higgins in 2022
If teal ran in Higgins in 2022
Libs-Katie Allan-37%
Greens-21%
Labor-20%
Teals around 15%

@John, the southern part of Prahran (St Kilda, St Kilda East, Windsor) though is solid green/red. It’s not a teal-ish demographic at all. Most of the suburb of Prahran itself is similar but to a lesser extent. It’s nothing at all like Kooyong & Goldstein.

As I mentioned further up, people often mistakenly mischaracterise Prahran as being a wealthy ‘teal’ type seat when it’s really not, especially since Toorak was removed. There are two parts of the seat that are: “Prahran East” and pockets of South Yarra.

But people forget that Prahran actually has the highest % of renters in the whole state. It’s one of the youngest seats as well. The typical Prahran voter is a renter in their 20s, which isn’t the core demographic of the teals (in the seats like Kooyong where teals do well, that’s the exact demographic that tactically votes teal).

At the federal election, the overlapping result (factoring in postal votes too) was only a 27% Liberal primary vote while Labor & Greens combined for about 65% of the primary vote. So I wouldn’t say Prahran voters are particularly disenfranchised with either Greens or Labor.

Rachel Westaway will certainly do better than the federal result, but as I’ve mentioned, she needs to outperform the overlapping federal result by +17 (!!) to ‘hold’ the seat. I can picture that the state result might be close to a +10 compared to the federal result, but not +17.

@Trent that is correct. the Prahran east side of Kooyong saw a 65% 2PP for Monique Ryan as the Greens were never within a shot of winning that seat federally (which resulted in a huge dip in the Greens and Labor primary vote in favour of Ryan that indicates tactical voting), but the Greens vote in the rest of Prahran (in Melbourne) held up with Labor going up and Liberals going down. It’s definitely inner-city Green (like Windsor/St Kilda nearby) rather than South Yarra or Hawthorn/Kew that are tealish.