Hawthorn – Victoria 2026

I would describe Hawthorn (the suburb) as teal-ish rather than left-wing. At the federal election in Richmond (the suburb) and Cremorne, Labor beat the Greens on the 2CP count at every booth as well as the nearest prepoll centres. There was no teal running.

The Age reports that teal independents and aligned groups are seeking another tilt at next election. There’s a Voices 4 Hawthorn group up and running. The Age also reports that Kew, Mornington, Prahran, Brighton and Malvern are potential targets.

Don’t get why the Teals target moderates, if there is a chance the Liberal Party might split. I can only see a Teal winning Hawthorn, if Baillieu ran.

Only seat the teals have a shot in, and maybe the only seat the Liberals might lose if so.

Teals, will probbaly make 2CP in Kew, Mornington and Malvern in addition to Hawthorn due to Labor PV dropping and tactical voting by Labo. Hawthorn is best chance for Teals and Labor would be wise to run dead and divert resources to sandbagging.

Which Teal who ran in Hawthorn or Kew did not live in the electorate in 2022? What have they actually go to give to the electorate? ALP and Greens will run dead if it means the Libs won’t win a seat but what would they stand for? They have to stand for more than being a ‘nice’ Teal.

@SCart: The Liberal is extremely likely to lose Prahran regardless. With both Labor & Greens running, Rachel Westaway will probably have to outperform her byelection result by at least +6 on primary votes. Incumbency will be cancelled out by so many favourable byelection factors not being present (including the fact that the byelection was held at the peak of the Liberals’ polling where they were polling over a 40% primary vote!).

A teal won’t really help her chances there either because Labor & Greens voters have no reason to tactically vote “teal” in a seat that had been Labor/Greens held for 19 of the 23 years prior to the byelection which was really a unique contest without Labor, so a teal would probably eat into her own primary vote and reduce her chances even more through preference leakage.

I agree that a teal won’t win Kew or Malvern either. I can’t see any possible reason that Jess Wilson won’t get a significant sophomore surge in Kew, she would be seen by moderate / teal types as the future of the Liberal Party that they want to see. Malvern is just too blue ribbon, but a teal would probably do better there than they would in Prahran which is solidly red/green in 3181-3183 (other than ‘Prahran East’).

In Mornington a teal came very close in 2022 so I wouldn’t write that off but I’d still consider it a long shot.

Hawthorn is the seat I have said for a while is most vulnerable to a teal because Pesutto’s 2022 pitch of becoming leader and ‘saving’ the Liberal Party is out the window. Even with that he only won very narrowly. And Labor made the 2CP, because they had incumbency which gave Labor/Greens voters less reason to tactically vote teal.

So next year I would say the combination of Pesutto no longer having leadership prospects and Labor being less popular and not having incumbency, means both the Labor & Liberal votes will go backwards, and the teal in 2022 only very narrowly missed the 2CP. So I’d say there’s probably a 95% chance of a LIB v IND 2CP which I’d favour an IND to win.

John Pesutto losing his pre-selection doesn’t look to be happening. You can argue that Pesutto is their best chance of holding. But the pre-selections around the Liberal party are shy of interest. Because of the Victorian Liberal Party’s dysfunction, it isn’t an attractive option for many potential candidates at the moment.

“Indeed, despite talk of a conservative challenge to former leader John Pesutto in Hawthorn – one of the party’s most marginal seats – no one nominated before it closed on Tuesday.”

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/oct/04/victorian-liberal-party-reselections-unusual-step-extending-deadline-search-for-future-mps

Reports that John pesutto is likely to be brought back to the frontbench under Jess wilson’s leadership

I wonder how Moira Deeming and Sky News will react to that.

If history is any indication, poorly.

Deeming now has 12 months to rev up her antiabortion advocacy and wreck Jess Wilson’s chances.

I never had anything against pesutto as a member but it was attacks on Deeming I had the problem with. He has probably cost himself the premiership. Deeming just needs to lay low on things like abortion.

Battin was weak on Deeming.
Liberals were traveling well when she made Andrews statue an issue, took all the wind outta their sails, Battin promoted her to the shadow frontbench after it had died down.

There’s hearsay that Battin bailing out Pesutto from bankruptcy or his handling of the Deeming matter was a reason for Battin’s downfall.

Makes sense.
Deeming is the Liberal Party’s main obstacle to winning.

The Liberals would win resoundingly if they pushed Deeming off the ticket.

Jess Wilson has just announced her shadow cabinet appointees. Neither John Pesutto nor Moira Deeming are among them.

That’s going to seriously backfire.

@Votante apparently Deeming is still on the frontbench as an assistant minister and Renee Heath got a full ministerial promotion. The fact that this ‘fresh’ start contains some of the same old that got the party to the current position today says it all really.

It wouldn’t be wise to put John Pesutto on the frontbench until the loan saga gets fully sorted.

@Tommo9: Moira Deeming is not in Jess Wilson’s publicly announced list of Shadow Cabinet, but this report says she will continue to serve as Shadow Assistant Minister for Local Government, which is a role first given to her by Brad Battin. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/jess-wilson-appoints-herself-shadow-treasurer-dumps-riordan-and-promotes-key-backer-20251130-p5njjv.html

Interestingly, Wilson will be forced to dump two upper house MPs if she wins power next November, because “Under section 50 of the Constitution Act, no more than six ministers can come from the Legislative Council. Wilson has named eight upper house MPs in her line-up, meaning at least two would need to be demoted before she could form government. The rule does not apply to an opposition’s shadow cabinet.”

The appointment of arch-conservatives like Bev McArthur, Moira Deeming and Renee Heath to the front bench is an attempt to appease the conservatives in the Liberal Party, whose support is essential for the leadership of any leader of the Victorian Liberal Party to survive. For example, promoting Bev McArthur to become the Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council is part of a peace deal Wilson’s supporters have brokered with McArthur to get her support. It can also be attempts to pull them into line to stop them fighting culture wars by introducing private members bills to roll back abortion or voluntary assisted dying rights. Fortunately they don’t seem to be engaging in culture wars recently.

@CJ: “Deeming’s hold over her upper house seat is expected to face a challenge from Dinesh Gourisetty, a prominent member of Melbourne’s fast-growing Indian community who has built considerable support across the party’s small western suburbs branches.” https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/how-12-good-men-and-women-stepped-in-to-save-john-pesutto-20250620-p5m900.html

Gourisetty was the Liberal candidate for Tarneit in the 2014 state election and was second on the Liberal Party’s Western Metropolitan Region ticket in the 2018 state election. Gourisetty could push Deeming down to the second spot on the Liberal Party’s Western Metropolitan Region ticket, which could see Deeming defeated. If she is pushed to the third spot then she will definitely be defeated. It’s very unlikely that Deeming will be pushed off the ticket entirely.

With such a small margin here I can’t see the Liberals holding here if they are doing some sort of preference deal with One Nation.

@ SpaceFish
The issue is that the Labor party is more unpopular than in 2022 including with Fiscal conservatives i.e land tax changes, Private School Payroll tax and fiscal issues. if Libs loose here it will be to a Teal not Labor. With respect to ONP while the ONP policies on climate change, indigenous people will not be popular here unlike the Afghan who lives in Narre Warren South the people here do not need to fear hate crimes due to rising nationalism. Are the right wing nationalists more likely to attack a Mosque or a Yacht club in Hampton, are they more likely to vandalise a Halal Butcher shop in Hampton Park or the Tiffany and Co store in Chadstone Shopping Centre. Compared to 2022, there is more religious and ethnic tension in 2026 and One Nation is more likely to amplify that.

The Labor strategy of trying to define the Liberals as being ONP lite will run into a couple of problems in inner/middle Melbourne I think

Firstly in the currently Liberal-held Bayside and inner east suburbs home invasions and other similar crime has exploded and I suspect will be a much greater motivator for voters than perception of closeness between the Coalition and ONP.

Secondly Jess Wilson is quite popular and very palatable – the Liberal campaign should really focus on her as a leader and Labor as a government rather than the party and its record…

Melissa Lowe is not contesting this rather she is vying for upper house seat. From what I’ve seen thrown around as potential Labor pickups being Hawthorn, Richmond, Rowville and Croydon this seat would be Labor best chance given the demographics and people being spoked by the Liberals potential to do a deal with One Nation.

I think people who are more spooked but ONP are more likely to Muslims in working class suburbs rather than rich white people. Yes ONP is anti-climate action and opposed to Treaty, State voice etc but they are not against Private Schools and their economic policies are not based on redistribution of wealth. They support Tarrifs and Protectionism but those are Federal policies not state ones.
The Libs preference ONP in South Australia and retained Bragg (no swing), Heysen and nearly retained Morphett. If they had a sitting member they may have been able to retain Unley as well. That was deep
If Labor is to pick this up they are probably going to get 56% of the TPP statewide. Even when Labor won in 2018 there on Cook PVI it was +6.7 that was the same in 2022 as well- Cook PVI did not change.

Richmond is potential pick up due to reversal of preference flow rather than Primary vote swing from GRN to ALP. If Libs preference Greens again Greens will retain.That is why QLD Labor picked up South Brisbane in 2024 purely due to preference change

Even though Rowville and Croydon have retiring members you still neeed a swing to pick it up plus neither of those MPs were seen as particularly having a personal vote.

I think this is one of the seats where Liberal would still hold but the electoral advantages gradually drops in each future election cycles due to densification in seat which is why the Liberals are opposed to medium to high density development in the seat.

@ Marh
if you look at Booth results in the densley populated booths along Glenferrie Road and Camberwell Junction the Teal outpolled sitting Labor MP. I feel that these young professional voters who are renters usually private sector ones will be Tealish and vote for IND over Labor. There is a long term decline in Major party primary vote share and this affects Labor as wll.

A major difference between the Victorian election and the South Australian election though is that South Australia was a foregone conclusion as a Labor win. In Victoria there is a real risk that the Liberals could have to rely on One Nation to form government so it may have some effect here. Still think it will be a Liberal retain with a swing to it though. Jess Wilson will be very palatable here.

@Adam, there was a poll last month for Jess Wilson seat running against a Teal and it turns out that she would not safe if that poll right. Even though Jess Wilson is a moderate, she could eventually make her campaign more right-wing to try to get ONP preferences given Vic Libs seems to recycle the same campaign rhetoric focusing much more in attacking the incumbent Labor Government rather than promoting an alternative vision. The problem with this method is that it only works to a cohort who very strongly disapprove Jacinta Allan and it might not appeal to many moderates.

https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/politics/victorian-liberal-leader-jess-wilson-slides-8pc-in-first-preferences-survey-finds/news-story/54803ee1429e03f81eed4975f7d1bc18

I think teal candidates in Hawthorn and Kew would do much better than Labor would and even enter the 2CP. Their campaigns could pull the Liberals to the centre ground and shift focus to economics and bread and butter local issues.

Labor is on the backslide with the “it’s time” factor catching up. Their economic policies aren’t particularly palatable in more upwardly mobile or affluent electorates. There are more left-wing voters who may want to protest against Labor and would vote for a teal but not Liberal or One Nation.

Jess Wilson is perfectly safe on those numbers – which tend to be overly bullish on whoever commissioned the poll (in this case the Teal who can’t get above 20% whilst ONP comes from nowhere to 13%)

Greens appear to have been putting some effort into this seat while Shima Ibuki is a deputy mayor doesn’t appear to be campaigning much at the moment. This seat is definitely vulnerable for the Liberals and it wouldn’t surprise me if they lost here. Labor have preselected the same candidate for the federal seat for the federal election.

Shima Ibuki seems to be a Teal. Who do you think can pick up this seat from Libs?

Honestly, I’m not confident to say who I think but whoever wins this will be winning this with a low primary around the mid 20’s. When the election is closer then I might make a call then.

I dont think ONP will win this so i am pretty confident about that and their primary will be below state average. When Labor won Hawthorn in 2018 they got 43% statewide but only 32% in Hawthorn and there was no Teal. The Greens primary was above state average but Labor primary vote was well below state average then. If Labor is polling only 26% primary statewide i feel that they primary in Hawthorn will be well below that especially given that there is a Teal now as well so that should help you make some predictions on which candidtates can win and which cannot.

John Pessutto is popular in Hawthorn and the whole Moira Deeming business would have done him no harm locally. It is possible that on current trends that Labor could end up behind the Greens on the primary vote. I can also see ON getting a low vote here – quite possibly under 10%. It could get messy but it is also quite possible – and we have seen this before – that where Teals are concerned – there is more smoke than fire. At this stage, I can see the Liberals winning here and in Kew. Also, by the time November rolls around, the mood for a change of government will be even greater than it is now.

Pesutto will sail home on current polling, his primary might take a hit of anywhere from 3-8% whilst ONP can probably squeeze out 10-15% and their preferences would easily see him home

LIB: 36%
GRN: 19%
ALP: 17%
ONP: 12%
IND: 9%
Others: 7%

LIB vs GRN: 59-41

Would be my rough guess currently

@ Maxim
I agree i think LIB 60 V ALP Classic TPP would be 60-40 so less than the 2010 result but higher than 2014 result.
The Teal will flow to GRN more than Labor so Labor will not make the 2CP. Even in 2018 the Greens got 18% primary. In 2010 Labor only got 21% Primary and Greens got 19% i think now with more younger generations the Green primary can be higher than Labor. Also if we look at 2022 results the Labor primary was stronger in the older areas rather than Camberwell Junction and Glenferrie road where there Teal outpolled Labor on primaries. I think the Teal to Labor flow if Labor makes 2CP will be weaker than in 2022.

@Nimalan,
I don’t think in the slightest that One Nation could win here at all, you have old wealth here and high amount of white collar professionals as well as university students who will certainly not vote for them.

I don’t think any party or independent that wins this seat will be getting a double digit margin the best the Liberals could hope for if they hold here 53-54 Hawthorn has shifted away from the Liberals so those sort of margins are extremely unlikely.

I think things that needs to be considered before the November Election

– If Jacinta Allan resigns as premier
(and not recontest her seat) and whether the new premier can be productive and has policies that can neutralise the oppositions and cancel out much of unpopular baggage.

– Who would be choosen as the One Nation leader and whether One Nation would even be as popular by November given the recent ONP drop of national support in opinion polls due to the Press Club Statement

– How Victoria Liberals campaign especially if they have to decide whether to try to consolidate the Conservative Vote or the anti-One Nation Vote and whether Moore Deeming saga has a long affects.

@ Spacefish
We also need to look at what is called the Cook PVI. I accept Libs will not get the margin of 2010 even if they get a higher statewide TPP
Lets look at Libs Cook PVI
In 2010 it was +15% LIB
in 2014 it was +10 LIB
In 2018 it was +6.7% LIB
in 2022 it was still +6.7% LIB as statewide swing to LIBs was 2.3% exactlly the same as statewide swing which was mainly concentrated in North West Melbourne due to lockdowns.
So even if the Libs get 51% statewide they should be able to get 56% against Labor as a bare minimum it maybe harder against a Teal if the Teal make the 2CP. But if you saying that Libs can only got 53-54% that logic would say that the Cook PVI will be neutral or even slighly positive for Labor which has never happened before.

Marh

My view on your points:
– Unlikely that Jacinta Allan will go. Probably run out of time. If she goes, it might smack of panic and make things worse. New premier will have too much trouble trying to bed things down in a short time with new ministers etc.
– No leader as yet and no hint of who it might be. ON have to find 120 candidates before November and except for their MLC have got none.
– They have to cauterise the Moira Deeming wound sooner or later – having her outside the tent is probably safer than in. Unfortunately for the Libs “go quietly” and ‘Moira Deeming” are oxymoronic.

@Nimalan,
If you look at the Labor landslide victories of 2002 and 2018 the Liberals held on to Hawthorn and Labor won the seat 2018. The seats demographics have shifted against the Liberals in this electorate as there are much more apartments with younger people that don’t hold those Liberals views. John Pesutto admitted on live tv to approving more apartments which said factored to his defeat and even calling it a second Richmond or more like Richmond. I’m not saying that the Liberals will definitely lose here but I don’t think they’ll drum up the same sort of support they did back in the early 2000’s or 90’s. It’s also very likely the Liberals will do some sort of deal with One Nation which I don’t think will play that well through here.

@ Spacefish
i agree that the Liberals did worse in 2018 in very affluent areas they also did worse in Brighton, Malvern, Caulfied and Sandringham than they did in 2002. The Swing in Malvern in 2018 was 10% higher than that in Hawthorn.
The 2018 swing was amplified by a couple of factors
1. Turnbull being ousted a few months earlier
2. Libs proposing building a new Coal fired power station
3. Libs campaigning on African gangs which backfired here as well as campaigning against safe schools.
The State Labor government was able able to tie State Libs to the Federal Libs chaos which is why which Steve Bracks could not do in 2002. Steve Bracks did much better in the Outer East than Andrews did in 2018 and he also did much better in the La Trobe valley.

You can watch Pesutto comments on live TV again on Youtube he said “parts of Hawthorn” look like “parts of Richmond.” I agree with that statement provided it is not mispresensted he never said Hawthorn was a second Richmond. You can argue correctly that Camberwell Junction and Glenferrie precient around Swinburne Uni looks like Cremorne and Burnely in Richmond but even those parts of Richmond are more centrist. There is no area in Hawthorn that are Alternative communities like Fitzroy or Collingwood nor are there massive concentration of socal housing, heroin dealing etc. Not are there houses with Tennis Courts in Richmond so we need to be careful with anologies so i agree Cremorne and Burnely are good analogies with certain parts of Hawthorn.

I dont want to be direspectful at all to you but you have mentiond there is little swing expected in the Claybelt, Sandbelt or the inner East so if the Statewide results are looking dire for Labor you are assuming that all the swing is in Regional Victoria or in White Working class areas of Outer Melbourne like Sunbury and the swing is minimal elsewhere.

@Nimalan,
I don’t think the Labor government at this point is going to be returned but I think the swing will be where the government has neglected not where they’ve spent significant amounts of money.

@ Spacefish

Can you map out a list of seats where you think there swing will be above average
I think Sunbury is one but if you can name the rest it will be easier to analyse and we can then see how that will play out

@Nimalan,
I’m conscientious of not irritating Ben Raue with endless messages on here, the TallyRoom has a discord chat so I’m happy to take it there and I can tell you which seats.

Looking at the published polling I think it’s quite clear that Coalition losses to ONP are much more severe in the rurals than in inner eastern Melbourne. Even in the outer suburbs ONPs gains are probably more at Labor and other minor parties expense than the Coalition, particularly where the Liberals already poll below 30%.

Think the Kooyong 2025 result showed how this idea that the generational tide would inevitably overwhelm the Liberals is not materialising in inner city seats as the demographic turnover has slowed or potentially even reversed since the Covid years – will be interesting to see how that looks once we have census data for 2026

Note, my rough prediction earlier may also have overestimated the Greens (who are struggling this side of the Yarra) and underestimated the teal, who I understand is a local deputy mayor and has the backing of Climate 200