LIB 1.7%
Incumbent MP
John Pesutto, since 2022. Previously 2014-2018.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Hawthorn covers central parts of the Boroondara local government area, and specifically the suburbs of Hartwell and Hawthorn and parts of the suburbs of Burwood, Camberwell, Canterbury and Surrey Hills.
History
Hawthorn has existed as an electoral district continuously since 1889. In that time, it has been dominated by conservative MPs, and had only been won by the ALP at one election prior to the Labor win in 2018.
The seat was won in 1902 by George Swinburne. He ended up serving as a member of the Commonwealth Liberal Party before his retirement in 1913.
He was succeeded by William Murray McPherson. McPherson served as Treasurer in the Nationalist state government from 1917 to 1923, and as Premier from 1928 to 1929. McPherson resigned from Parliament in 1930.
He was succeeded by Nationalist candidate John Gray at the 1930 by-election. Gray served as Member for Hawthorn until his death in 1939.
His seat was won at the 1939 by-election by the United Australia Party’s Leslie Tyack. He lost the seat at the 1940 state election to independent candidate Leslie Hollins, who had links to the Social Credit movement.
Hollins held Hawthorn for two terms, losing in 1945 to the Liberal Party’s Frederick Edmunds. He also held the seat for two terms, until in 1950 the Liberal Party replaced him with his predecessor Leslie Tyack.
Tyack was defeated in 1952 by the ALP’s Charles Murphy, the only ALP member to ever win Hawthorn. He left the ALP in the split of 1955, and lost his seat at that year’s election to the Liberal Party’s James Manson.
After one term, Manson moved to the new seat of Ringwood in 1958, and was replaced in Hawthorn by Peter Garrisson. He was re-elected in 1961, but in 1963 he resigned from the Liberal Party, and lost his seat as an independent in 1964.
Walter Jona was elected as Liberal Member for Hawthorn in 1964. He served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1976 to 1982, and retired in 1985.
Hawthorn was won in 1985 by the Liberal Party’s Phillip Gude, who had previously held the seat of Geelong East for one term from 1976 to his defeat in 1979. He served as a minister in the Kennett government from 1992 until his retirement in 1999.
Ted Baillieu won Hawthorn in 1999. Baillieu won re-election in 2002, 2006 and 2010.
Ted Baillieu was elected Liberal leader shortly before the 2006 election, and led the Coalition to defeat in 2006 and victory in 2010.
Baillieu served as Premier from 2010 until March 2013, when he resigned as Premier and Liberal leader under pressure from his party’s MPs. He retired at the 2014 election, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate John Pesutto.
Pesutto held Hawthorn for one term, losing the seat to Labor’s John Kennedy with a big swing in 2018.
Pesutto contested Hawthorn again in 2022, defeating Kennedy to regain his seat. Pesutto was elected Liberal leader immediately after the 2022 election. Pesutto held the role for just over two years, but lost his leadership in the final days of 2024.
- Clive Crosby (Labor)
- Shima Ibuki (Independent)
- Tess McEnearney (Victorian Socialists)
- John Pesutto (Liberal)
- Kylie Rocha (Greens)
Assessment
This seat will be a fierce contest between the Liberal Party and the local independent movement.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 18,728 | 42.3 | -1.8 |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 9,799 | 22.1 | -10.9 |
| Melissa Lowe | Independent | 8,851 | 20.0 | +20.0 |
| Nick Savage | Greens | 4,927 | 11.1 | -6.4 |
| Faith Fuhrer | Animal Justice | 660 | 1.5 | -0.7 |
| Richard Peppard | Liberal Democrats | 583 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Ken Triantafillis | Family First | 408 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Stratton Bell | Democratic Labour | 354 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 1,178 | 2.6 |
2022 three-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 20,088 | 45.3 |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 12,164 | 27.5 |
| Melissa Lowe | Independent | 12,058 | 27.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 22,927 | 51.7 | +2.3 |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 21,383 | 48.3 | -2.3 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The two-candidate-preferred votes reported at the polling place level were between the Liberal and independent candidates, while the final two-candidate-preferred figure at the electorate level was between the Liberal and Labor candidates.
The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 34.7% in the west to 41.7% in the east.
The ALP came second in the centre and east, with a primary vote ranging from 20.4% in the west to 23.8% in the centre. Independent candidate Melissa Lowe came second in the west, with a vote ranging from 19.8% in the centre to 24.7% in the west.
| Voter group | ALP prim | IND prim | LIB prim | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 23.8 | 19.8 | 40.3 | 7,031 | 17.9 |
| East | 22.8 | 21.7 | 41.7 | 4,667 | 11.9 |
| West | 20.4 | 24.7 | 34.7 | 3,678 | 9.4 |
| Pre-poll | 21.1 | 20.6 | 43.9 | 21,337 | 54.3 |
| Other votes | 23.5 | 15.0 | 43.9 | 7,717 | 19.6 |
Election results in Hawthorn at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent) and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, independent candidate Melissa Lowe and the Greens.
@ Spacefish
Let me figure out to use discord. in any case the point i am trying to make is that some outer suburban seats like Greenvale, the Narre Warrens, Cranbourne are very diverse. In those seats ONP may do well among White Working class voters however, i dont know why Posh White people are spooked by ONP but poor ethnic voters are indifferent. I do think Sunbury, Niddire etc will swing more than many Eastern suburbs seats etc.
@ Maxim
While this maybe ancedote i actually know some empty nesters who have sold large houses in Templestowe etc once their children moved out and then downsized to townhouses etc in Boorondorra. It is possible that a baby boomer once their children have married etc may sell a big house in Rowville and move to a smaller property in Hawthorn etc so that is the reverse trend of what is commonly said. Also from my experience the young renters who live in Hawthorn tend to be young professionals in Private sector jobs in Finance, Legal or IT who went to Private schools etc who i assume will be Fiscally Conservative even if Socially moderate.
I am thinking Liberal holds. John Pesutto will get reelected and then join the front bench.
He might feel a bit vindicated after Moira Deeming’s disendorsement and resignation from the party. There might be some who would vote for him because of him, rather than the party.
I doubt the teal campaign would a huge threat.
I have been in the seat recently and have observed a visible campaign from Shima Ibuki, the Teal candidate. The Teals appear to be campaigning on socially progressive issues such as the State Treaty, climate change, integrity in politics, and a pro-multicultural, anti-One Nation stance.
Before anyone jumps to conclusions, I do not think this is a particularly favourable electoral cycle for the Teals. Historically, Teals have tended to perform best when Labor is at a lower ebb and the Liberals are under greater pressure. At present, the opposite appears to be the case. My honest view is that John Pesutto will be re-elected without too much difficulty. If the contest remains primarily between the Liberals and Labor, I expect a fairly emphatic Liberal victory, given the apparent mood for a change of government.
Jess Wilson is the MP for the neighbouring seat and attended school in Hawthorn. She arguably fits the target demographic of this electorate quite well, making her the next best thing to having Pesutto himself as Liberal leader from the perspective of local Liberal voters.
However, there is a broader point worth considering. In elections such as 2018, when the Liberals were deeply unpopular, there existed a cohort of voters often described as “double haters” – people who disagreed with the Liberals on social issues but did not trust Labor on economic matters.
In 2018, there was no established Teal option capable of appealing to this niche constituency, and the term “Teal” had not yet entered the broader political vocabulary. Zali Steggall had not yet been elected in Warringah, and only a fortnight before the Victorian election a proto-Teal candidate had won the Wentworth by-election. It is worth pondering how the result might have differed had a visible Teal campaign existed in Hawthorn at that time.
My sense is that the Teals in Hawthorn are playing a longer game. Their primary target may not be 2026, when Labor is relatively unpopular and the Liberals are in a stronger position, but rather a future cycle in which the political environment is more favourable. Their message is essentially that voters do not have to choose the “least bad” option.
Much of the commentary around Hawthorn has focused on densification and the younger demographic. However, it is important to remember that in 2022, despite the presence of a sitting Labor member, the Teal candidate outpolled Labor on the primary vote at every booth along Glenferrie Road and around Camberwell Junction. That suggests there is already an identifiable constituency for an independent, socially progressive, economically moderate alternative in parts of the electorate.
sorry Typo Teals perform better when Labor is more popular and Libs less popular
That strategy works short term but the Teal movement has to prove its worth once elected, the results haven’t been encouraging so far with few sitting teals getting the sort of sophomore swings you typically associate with IND MPs.
@ Maxim
I agree but i was more saying lets pretend say in a decade we have a repeat of 2018 circumstances where the Labor party is popular and Libs are unpopular especially with the professional demographic. If they was a Teal brand would such voters who are unhappy with Libs and respect the Labor party if they had a Teal option would those voters prefer to have a Labor MP or Teal MP. It was more about if Labor would win Hawthorn in those circumstances rather than if the Teal can entrench themseleves.