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I would describe Hawthorn (the suburb) as teal-ish rather than left-wing. At the federal election in Richmond (the suburb) and Cremorne, Labor beat the Greens on the 2CP count at every booth as well as the nearest prepoll centres. There was no teal running.
The Age reports that teal independents and aligned groups are seeking another tilt at next election. There’s a Voices 4 Hawthorn group up and running. The Age also reports that Kew, Mornington, Prahran, Brighton and Malvern are potential targets.
Don’t get why the Teals target moderates, if there is a chance the Liberal Party might split. I can only see a Teal winning Hawthorn, if Baillieu ran.
Only seat the teals have a shot in, and maybe the only seat the Liberals might lose if so.
Teals, will probbaly make 2CP in Kew, Mornington and Malvern in addition to Hawthorn due to Labor PV dropping and tactical voting by Labo. Hawthorn is best chance for Teals and Labor would be wise to run dead and divert resources to sandbagging.
Which Teal who ran in Hawthorn or Kew did not live in the electorate in 2022? What have they actually go to give to the electorate? ALP and Greens will run dead if it means the Libs won’t win a seat but what would they stand for? They have to stand for more than being a ‘nice’ Teal.
@SCart: The Liberal is extremely likely to lose Prahran regardless. With both Labor & Greens running, Rachel Westaway will probably have to outperform her byelection result by at least +6 on primary votes. Incumbency will be cancelled out by so many favourable byelection factors not being present (including the fact that the byelection was held at the peak of the Liberals’ polling where they were polling over a 40% primary vote!).
A teal won’t really help her chances there either because Labor & Greens voters have no reason to tactically vote “teal” in a seat that had been Labor/Greens held for 19 of the 23 years prior to the byelection which was really a unique contest without Labor, so a teal would probably eat into her own primary vote and reduce her chances even more through preference leakage.
I agree that a teal won’t win Kew or Malvern either. I can’t see any possible reason that Jess Wilson won’t get a significant sophomore surge in Kew, she would be seen by moderate / teal types as the future of the Liberal Party that they want to see. Malvern is just too blue ribbon, but a teal would probably do better there than they would in Prahran which is solidly red/green in 3181-3183 (other than ‘Prahran East’).
In Mornington a teal came very close in 2022 so I wouldn’t write that off but I’d still consider it a long shot.
Hawthorn is the seat I have said for a while is most vulnerable to a teal because Pesutto’s 2022 pitch of becoming leader and ‘saving’ the Liberal Party is out the window. Even with that he only won very narrowly. And Labor made the 2CP, because they had incumbency which gave Labor/Greens voters less reason to tactically vote teal.
So next year I would say the combination of Pesutto no longer having leadership prospects and Labor being less popular and not having incumbency, means both the Labor & Liberal votes will go backwards, and the teal in 2022 only very narrowly missed the 2CP. So I’d say there’s probably a 95% chance of a LIB v IND 2CP which I’d favour an IND to win.
John Pesutto losing his pre-selection doesn’t look to be happening. You can argue that Pesutto is their best chance of holding. But the pre-selections around the Liberal party are shy of interest. Because of the Victorian Liberal Party’s dysfunction, it isn’t an attractive option for many potential candidates at the moment.
“Indeed, despite talk of a conservative challenge to former leader John Pesutto in Hawthorn – one of the party’s most marginal seats – no one nominated before it closed on Tuesday.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/oct/04/victorian-liberal-party-reselections-unusual-step-extending-deadline-search-for-future-mps