Hawthorn – Victoria 2026

Liberal loss, to who I’m not sure at the moment but either the independent or Labor.

SpaceFish, Liberals won’t lose Hawthorn to the ALP and only Rob Baillieu would be a real threat to Presutto.

I agree with Pencil
Labor is less popular especially with Fiscal conservatives. There will also be backlash for Private School Payroll tax/Land Tax among nuclear families So Teals are a viable alternative.

With respect pencil the demographic trend is not in the Liberals favour plus the recent law to protect work from home really benefits a lot of this electorate. If Melissa Lowe were to run again or some sort of high profile Labor member then I could seem pealing this seat off Presutto plus likely he’ll retire in 2026.

Pesutto is unelectable.

Other issue is Labor should focus on its heartland and try and add red bricks to the Red Wall. Otherwise the Labor party will just become like the Democrats or the Teals socially progressive but economically agnostic. They need to protect seats like Sydenham, Werribee, Melton, Sunbury and Niddrie so cant afford to waste resources.

Further to my point, Labor had little interest to hold Hawthorn in 2022 eventhough they had a sitting MP. They quite rightly cared more about Bayswater than this seat as Bayswater is middle Australia.

SpaceFish, Presutto has said he will be recontesting, and the demographics are more likely to favor the Teals ahead of the ALP, and Rob Baillieu is a stronger candidate than Melissa Love, due to his council ward covering a large part of Hawthorn, and he has a higher profile amongst the more middle class parts of Hawthorn and Camberwell. The ALP scored a few points for their WFH laws, however there is opposition to the Private School Payroll tax, changes to land Tax, rising crime and deteriorating roads, and that could also work against Rob Baillieu, as he is a local councilor, and then there is the Camberwell Activity Centre, and that will make planning a big issue.

Nimalan, That’s the other thing, the ALP would be looking to protect its majority before looking to win new seats.

@ Pencil
Totally agree and the question really would be who would vote/preference Labor in 2026 that did not in 2022. The main demographic that i can see doing that is very low SES voters who very angry and lockdowns and have now got over it. That demographic does not exist here. There will be cohort of moderate Liberal voters who are upset that Pesutto was ousted and that party may not be moving to the centre as they had hoped for in 2022 when they elected Pesutto but that demographic can choose Teal instead of Labor. I also dont think WFH will have a big impact here and i dont think Jacinta Allan had Hawthorn in mind when they annouced the policy. It was probably designed for seats with a lot of tree/sea changers like Bellarine, South Barwon etc or growth areas with limited public transport where there is a high concentration with young families with children where parents benefit from it. In a seat like Hawthorn many of the young professionals in their 20s who dont have children yet probably are ok with a short commute from Glenferrie station to Parliament station and enjoy after work drinks and grabbing a coffee from Pelligrinis when at the office.

As long as there is a strong independent/teal candidate here I think they will win.

Pesutto only just scraped through in 2022 on the promise that he would take the leadership and change the direction of the party, and that will no longer be a selling point in 2026.

On the flipside, Labor won’t do as well in 2026 as they did in 2022, however I think Labor having incumbency probably stifled the teal vote a little bit by diluting the ‘tactical’ vote, despite Labor’s best attempts to “run dead”.

If Labor run dead again this time, without incumbency, with a stronger teal candidate on the ballot, and with voters no longer having any realistic optimism about Pesutto taking the leadership and “fixing” the Liberal Party – and add to all that the continuing demographic change that comes from all the rapid apartment development in both Hawthorn & Camberwell – it’s hard to see Pesutto holding onto his 1.7% margin.

If he runs, I would not be surprised to see John Pesutto get a sympathy vote. The density issue is hotting up in Booroondara and a Teal would have a hard time delivering.

I think pesutto will suppress the ind vote enough to win

New apartments are mostly only being built along tram routes and major roads, this gives the impression that the area is changing more than it is. This will be different if the Camberwell Activity Centre goes ahead.

Teal movement has clearly peaked in Victoria IMO, even the 2022 state campaigns kinda hung on the lingering coattails of Ryan and Daniel in 2022

Last state election, the Labor MP’s incumbency in this seat combined with Labor’s relatively strong showing south and east of the Yarra made it hard for a teal or independent to break through. The non-Liberal vote was split.

Rob Baillieu has a stronger profile than Melissa Lowe – the previous teal candidate. I think the teal movement was quite over-hyped at the federal election. However, he’s not a cookie-cutter teal. Labor might just run dead as they’ll be defending or sandbagging seats.

A possibility is that Pesutto gets a sympathy vote or a boost from his raised profile as a former leader. He might’ve been elected on the platform of rescuing the Liberal Party last election but there may also be left-leaning or teal-ish voters who don’t fault him for his demise.

The Australian reports that some Liberals have comissioned a Hawthorn seat poll showing Pesutto behind Labor 45-55 and Pesutto having a net negative favourability. It says preselection will open on September 15. Seems like the poll was intent on getting Pesutto to drop out of politics or encouraging preselection challengers.

“In another key finding, support for Victorian Opposition Leader Brad Battin was high in the seat, with a plus-11 net favourability rating compared with a minus-19 for Premier Jacinta Allan.”
https://archive.is/GlnPY

i am guessing this was done by right wing Liberals who dislike Pesutto i cant see why Battin will be more popular than Pesutto in Hawthorn. even in 2018 Labor did not get 55% TPP in Hawthron.

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/internal-liberal-party-polling-sparks-push-to-dump-former-leader-john-pesutto-from-hawthorn-ahead-of-victorian-election/news-story/c8dec0e14c27bebb768b20e3d07510e5

“The polling, conducted by Freshwater Strategy, was commissioned by Liberal members unhappy with the $1.5 million bailout the party granted Mr Pesutto following his defamation loss.”

Pesutto has noone to blame but himself. if he hadnt of gone after Deeming hed still be leader and probably on his way to Spring Street

i have my doubts on that even if that rally that Deeming attended never took place i think many in the Liberals would have undermined Pesutto if he appeared to be too moderate. Many in the Liberal party support the realignment theory so they actually dont like seats such as Hawthorn they wish to be the party of St Albans they would have still said that Pesutto represented a “Woke Elite seat”. Michael O’Brien was undermined, Battin allowed Deeming back and made her a representative for the Western Suburbs and he is being undermined now despite being from an Outer suburban seat.

Agree Nimalan, Malcolm Turnbull as a moderate leader for the Liberals federally was undermined frequently and failed to maintain full control of the party caucus even though he wasn’t involved with any major ‘scandals’ like John Presutto.

because malcolm turnbull was representing views that most liberal members disagreed with. Turnbull also made enemie when he destabilised TOny Abbott and secretly brought him down all the while he was trying to sabotage and replace Abbott. You live by the sword, you die by the sword.

@ Yoh An
I would even say Susan Ley is being undermined now even though she was loyal to Dutton.
@ John
i agree that Turnbull/Abbott had a lot of bad blood like Gillard/Rudd
However, i am not sure what policy that Liberal members disagreed with
1. It was Tony Abbott who came up with the idea of a public vote on SSM
2. It was Tony Abbott who signed Australia to the Paris Agreement
3. Turnbull did not persue the Republic while he was PM

@nimalan and i can tell you why. and no its nothing to do with her being a woman. shes doesnt stand for anything and she isnt a leader shes a secretary. whie she made a god deputy that doesnt make her a good leader as someone who lives in farrer and a liberal voter im not at all inspired by her. Dutton actually stood for something he acted like a leader of the opposition and had the makings of a leader right up until the campiagn started and it all fell apart. that said i knew she would beat Angus Taylor because he simply screwed over too many people in the Liberal Party. the liberals had no real choice for leader following the election loss. Bring on Andrew Hastie.

@ John
I never raised Susan Ley’s gender you did. i think with Andrew Hastie is he is not pragmatic for example on Net Zero i doubt he can win Teal voters and his views on China will make it harder to win Chinese voters. Anyway Susan Ley has only been leader for a few months so it takes time to get to know how she feel win back votes.

The poll is absolute BS. While Hawthorn is perhaps the only Liberal held I could see the VIC Libs losing ATM no way will it be 55-45.

Though putting in Hamer is a good idea if Pesutto goes.

@ Scart they will not loose it to Labor maybe to Teal. However, my point is they are undermining Pesutto and they are undermining Battin and it is coming from within the Liberal party it is not a poll that Labor commissioned so the worst enemy of the Libs is themsevles.

@nimalan i know you didnt i just wanted to state that before so it was clear about why i disapprove of her

@scart i think they would be better running Hamer in Ashwood. a teal would probably beat Hamer in Hawthorn. she would be better served taking on Labor.

The poll is contradictory. It shows Battin as far more favourable than Allan but also shows that most would prefer a Labor member over Pesutto.

not really theyre basically saying they prefer Battin over Allen as premier but dont wont Pesutto as their local member

If Pesutto was the member for Narracan or a conservative seat that it would be possible. However, Hawthorn is a Tealish seat so i dont think they think they particularly want a right-wing member. Also why would people want a Labor member if they feel that Pesutto is not right-wing enough. It is in their economic self-interest to vote Liberal anyway.

There are DLP type voters (Economically-Left, Socially Right) that may dislike Pesutto and will vote Labor if they Liberals are socially moderate as they will vote with their economic interest but Hawthorn does not fit that that demographic.

If there wasn’t the debt hanging over him, John Pesutto could walk. If he ran as an independent he might romp in.

@ Redistibuted, do you take that “poll” seriously?

Nimalan
Frankly No. We know who commissioned it – and we know who reported it – that says about all that has to be said. The right wing of the Victorian Liberal Party are like some sort of political death cult just waiting for the kool aid to be handed out.

If Kate Chaney and Allegra Spender were to form some sort of socially liberal, economically largely free market political party, John Pesutto would be a good fit with them.

redistributed, add Hamer and Baillieu to that group, and a new party could start to take shape.

They wont form a party because then the rules change. Thats why someone tried to have the court declare them a party

Darth Vader, they probably won’t, but how much longer can the moderates and conservatives stay together when the moderate heartland has already voted against the Liberal Party’s conservative direction, and the conservative faction wants to remove the moderates.

I don’t like Pesutto’s chances. He has two hurdles. There are Liberals who want him to lose preselection. If he survives that, there’s either an independent or Labor challenger at the election.

Because Labor will likely lose seats in the outer suburbs and regions, they may decide to try their luck in the inner city. This includes Hawthorn and Richmond.

@Nimalan, I agree that this is a very teal-ish seat. The best federal teal results in Victoria were in Hawthorn. This was despite Monique Ryan’s campaign controversies and her left-leaning tendencies.

I think the issue for Labor winning this seat is probably because they dont see themselves holding it long term that is why they had little interest in holding it in 2022 as they probably felt the Teal will have a better hold of it and they focus on classic marginal seats such as Bayswater, Glen Waverly.
I see Labor losing Bass, Hastings and Pakenham simply due to low margins. All 3 are outer suburban areas but Labor did very well Federally in Pakenham/Clyde.
Ripon, Eureka and Bendigo East are the 3 regional targets
I do think Pencil is right that they Conservative Faction see the moderateas a burden and would love to cut them loose. I think Labor should not fall into the trap of becoming the Teals and focus on social progressivesness and become economically agnostic. If the Liberal party looses Professional class they will need to win a DLP style demographic (Economically Left, Socially Right) to compensate. As many of stated this is a harder ask as less affluent people will priortise economic issues over social values. It is Maslow Hierachy of Needs at work

The suburb of Hawthorn itself, especially around its Glenferrie Road corridor and also some of the western parts closer to Richmond, I would say is becoming genuinely left-leaning these days. Not just teal / small ‘l’ liberal, but if a teal didn’t run you’d see a very strong Greens vote and Labor winning the 2PP all over the central & western parts of Hawthorn, much like South Yarra.

That of course is offset by the ‘Kooyong’ area in the south of the seat as well as a most of Camberwell being much a more solidly Liberal (albeit of the tealish / small ‘l’ variety).

@ Trent
I do agree that densley populated parts of this seat that you mentioned along with Camberwell Junction are like South Yarra, Southbank etc if a teal did not run there will be a strong Green vote. However, i would still say it is a Tealish Green like in Cremorne so if the Victorian Liberals were like the NSW Liberals they could actually make inroads into maybe not win but get keep some of those booths more marginal. In essence not really students but high income young professionals who went to private schools etc that are yet to purchase homes

Trent, I wouldn’t call any part of Hawthorn “genuinely left-leaning”, except maybe the area immediately surrounding Swinburne, but even around the Glenferrie booth (Ryan’s strongest booth), the area is more teal / small “l” liberal, than left wing. If you walked around the streets near the Glenferrie booth, it is hard to see how the Liberals could be doing so badly.

The Hawthorn West booth is in Hawthorn East, and was previously the Auburn booth, which has been trending away from the Liberals for the last decade, and there has been no significant demographic change behind that. The St James Park area bordering Richmond is more teal than left leaning.

This is why Monique Ryan is having to take conservative positions on tax, since many of her voters are wealthier middle-class types. The secret to why Ryan won was her ability to keep a sizable percentage of small “l” liberals in her column, and the Liberals poor relationship with the growing Chinese / Indian community. This goes to how long can moderates and conservatives co-exist when conservatives want to junk positions favored by moderates, while embracing trumpian style policies.

Futher to Pencil’s point if you look at parts of Hawthorn West near the river such as Coppin Grove, Shakesphere Grove there is still huge houses with nuclear familes. I also believe Monique Ryan survived in Kooyong due to the large Chinese community who the Liberals alienated. Goldstein does not have a significant Chinese community but has a Large Jewish community so ethnic differences are in part what expains why one Victorian teal survived and one did not.

Nimalan, that is a fair description of renters in Hawthorn, and that went over everyone’s head when people were talking about Hamer being a renter. There are students renting, and many of them are actually international students, and if we exclude students, many of the remaining renters are professionals, and this is where Hawthorn is different to St Kilda and Brunswick.

@Pencil
Agree, even many of the Indian community in Hawthorn are probably international students. In the seat of Kew there is large Chinese community in Balwyn who probably will vote Libs if not for the rhetoric on China. I think the renter on Glenferrie Road could have gone to Xavier and moved with his partner who went to MLC and grew up in Glen Iris but is now a young lawyer at Ashurst and is probably not following Abbie Chatfield on instagram or attending Pro-Palestine rallies. I still feel Glenferrie road is different from Brunswick Street, Fitzroy despite both having trams and people will still judge you by how you dress on Glenferrie Road.

Not Hawthorn related but talking about Kooyong, a small factor that is often overlooked is that in the redistribution, yes Kooyong, Armadale, Malvern and Toorak (which are dark blue Liberal) were distributed in but so was a proportion Prahran which is renter heavy, densely-populated and fairly left wing, something that Raf Epstein mentioned on election night. A part of Ryan’s success was that the booth at Prahran was 65% 2CP for her, without it Kooyong could’ve easily flipped to the Liberals.

Hawthorn doesn’t have Prahran within it but it’s got the most teal friendly territory of Kooyong. Pesutto’s probably the best chance for the Liberals given he’s a moderate, but knowing the Victorian Liberals they’ll probably prefer anyone but him.