As part of my efforts to prepare election guides for all of the upcoming elections, I have now published a guide to the 2027 NSW state election. While that election is still almost a year and a half away, the lack of redistributions in NSW (and Victoria) has allowed me to prepare guides for those elections a long way out.
This is in addition to my guides to South Australia and Victoria, which covers all state elections due before the next federal election in 2027/28.
The guide features profiles of all 93 Legislative Assembly contests and the Legislative Council race. These profiles feature results tables, historical information and maps.
Most of the guide is exclusively available for Tally Room members. To become a Tally Room member, sign up as a donor for $8 (+GST) or more per month via Patreon. Those of you who have been donating $5 or more for a while now are still grandfathered in with access (and if you have trouble with access let me know).
For those of you who are currently contributing – thank you so much. I wouldn’t be able to keep up this work without the support of donors on Patreon.
To give you a taste of what is available, I’ve unlocked three profiles. I tried to pick a range of interesting contests:
- Camden – one of the marginal seats gained by Labor in 2023.
- Goulburn – a marginal Liberal seat in regional New South Wales which could be in play if the Coalition has a poor election.
- Willoughby – a seat where an independent came close to taking the seat from the Liberal Party in 2023.
phew a great deal of effort has gone into this project!.
Cheers
Thanks Ben as always!
What strikes me from the map is that Green (Nationals) Wall that surrounds the coast. But what is also striking is how much that Green wall has dissipated over the past decade (Ballina, Murray, Barwon, Orange, Port Macquarie, Monaro).
I think some of that is a bit illusory, Politics_Obsessed. For one thing, and trivially, the Nationals held seats stand out on a map because they’re physically large, so I don’t myself see all that much significance in this “green wall” inherently. Then you mention Port Macquarie, but the narrative there is complicated by the intra-Coalition defection of Leslie Williams. Monaro I’d argue was never truly part of the wall, it was won in the 2011 landslide and in the absence of John Barilaro returned to being a marginal seat.
That said, there’s certainly a noteworthy trend in far north coast (don’t forget Lismore, either) drifting leftwards to the point of becoming three way Nationals/Labor/Greens contests. And of course the ex-SFF Independents in the west aren’t going anywhere in the foreseeable future even if their former party never followed through on the gains that brought them into the Assembly.
Dry had thats becuase of seachangers. Cashed up liberals moving to the regions and taking there politics with them its not demographic shift its migration.
I know it’s seachangers, John, I didn’t make any comment on why the trend exists, just that it does (and has been going on for the past few decades, indeed).
Murray Barwon and Orange can be attributed to alt options in Sff they will likely go back to nats after those inds retire. Monato can be attributed to the growth of Canberra and people living outside the act. Ballina is sea changers and port Macquarie was the result of a defection otherwise the libs would have left it alone.
So, does this mean you’ve ruled out a redistribution that you though might be needed?
Yes.
There would not be enough time to conduct the redistribution
That’s not the reason. They have until March for a new redistribution to be triggered. But I don’t think enough seats are deviating sufficiently to be concerned.