Willoughby – NSW 2027

Just did a marathon redistribution of wlfs state numbers obviously the redistribution is 4 years away but I abolished Newtown in exchange for new seat around the pennant hills

Just the small matter of a 14.8% swing to Labor here last election and yet it’s a Free Preview because an IND almost won? The IND got 47.4% after preferences and Labor got 44.1%, so it’s not drastically different

If Kylea Tink, rather than a cookie-cutter teal, runs then this could get interesting. This depends on her intentions and where she is based. The seat has a low LIB vs IND margin. Also, Boele/Steggall won almost all booths here at the federal election. There’s one notable difference and that is the NSW Liberal Party is more palatable to small-L, moderate liberals than the federal Liberal Party is.

I can help you out with 3 things here Votante.
1. First a tip – Kylea Tink IS a cookie-cutter teal.
2. FWIW – she lives in North Willoughby
3. Are you saying Boele/Steggall won most booths here in Federal election vs Liberal in 2CP, or on primary votes? Because Boele easily lost 4 booths vs Labor on primary votes, including one where here votes was<50% Labor. Plus Labor out did her on Absent votes and Dec Pre-Poll and she only just beat Labor on Postals.

Is it fair to say another key difference is OPV?

High Street/Votante, what would be the definition of a ‘cookie cutter’ teal candidate or MP. Would it be someone who still supports progressive issues like the Greens? I can see Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel fitting into this category, and both suffered swings against them in contrast to the other teals who held their ground and gained a small swing in their favour.

In contrast, some of the teals with Liberal heritage like Kate Chaney and Allegra Spender are destined to go far – maybe in the future they could even join forces with the remaining moderate Liberals to establish a new centrist party (possibly a revival of the Australian Democrats or similar to Emmanuel Macron’s party in France).

I would have thought Ryan and Daniel are the least “cookie-cutter” of the Teals precisely because they skew more to the left.

@Nicholas per OPV it certainly helps but even with CPV the Liberals would’ve won all those seats albeit with slightly lower margins.

I agree that OPV makes it harder for a teal independent (vs Liberal). The Labor and Greens preference flows to independents are much weaker than at the federal elections as many votes exhaust.

@High Street, yes, I meant the independents won most booths on 2CP. You’re right about Boele’s primary vote results. They were lower than Labor’s in some parts and on absentees.

@Votante – Given the way Kylea Tink conducted herself with the Federal Redistribution, I think she may have more than burned a few bridges (pardon the pun).

The anger at the Federal Liberal Party isn’t translating to the State Liberal Party for a couple of reasons:

1. The Federal Party is effectively being run by the basket-case that is the Victorian Liberal Party.
2. The NSW Liberal Party is a lot more moderate than the Federal Party. Even the more conservative parts of the party have moved well away from the days of David Clarke.

Looking at his results from the by-election vs the 2023 election, Tim James PV Share was relatively stable and, while Penn’s PV Share dropped 3PP (mainly owing to Labor running the 2nd time around), her 2CP improved by 0.6PP Share, but she did experience a better preference flow the 2nd time around. The only thing that would take the seat away would be for Tim James PV Share to drop below 43%. In two unfavourable elections, he’s held it both times.

Tink might be able to win Willoughby if she ran. She’s more moderate than Tim James.

@hawkeye yeah the redistribution was messy, but the main fighting occurred between Tink and Sophie Scamps, who’s seat would’ve been moved into St Ives – this change would’ve caused the Northern Beaches to be split further than the current arrangement. It would’ve also caused another issue as Scamps was one of the first MP’s, along with the Greens, Tink and Wilkie, to criticise Israel for the ongoing war there, and St Ives has a very strong Jewish population.

I’m not sure whether Larissa Penn would run again. It may be that she steps aside for Tink, who already has name recognition in the seat.

Keep in mind if she did run, this would be Larissa Penn’s 4th time running, after 2019, the 2022 by-election, and 2023.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this electorate would be altered dramatically after 2027, specifically if either Wahroonga or Davidson gets abolished, forcing Willoughby up to say, Lindfield (possibly with a name change to Chatswood). Such dramatic boundary changes would be a nightmare for a sitting independent in 2031 – perhaps Tink is having a flashback if she reads this.
If nothing gets abolished north of the river, and the Boundary Rd border more or less stays (no changes bigger than Roseville Chase/Castle Cove), then I expect Willoughby to lose Cremorne/Neutral Bay, gain the North Sydney portion of St Leonards, and gain the rest of Lane Cove North. That would shift the seat a bit to the left.
I think this seat should lose Cremorne/Neutral Bay anyway. Specifically, I have issues with using Military Road as a boundary that chops through the heart of those 2 suburbs. I also believe they are not that accessible from any parts of Willoughby LGA (I can justify Crows Nest/Cammeray being in the seat however).

Just looking at the current numbers on JWoods’ redistribution tool none of the North Shore seats are that much over or under quota; Willoughby itself is a little bit under 2% over quota. The major population deviations are in the inner City. Though of course it’s still a long way until that redistribution starts, and the numbers can change.

I do think all three of Hornsby, Lane Cove, and Wahroonga need a lot of work on their boundaries, but I’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

Apartment growth and intense densification in Chatswood will help maintain quota. There is also densification around the new metro stations in Crows Nest and North Sydney. However this will mean that Willoughby won’t be as safe for the Libs as it once was. Labor in particular does rather well in Chatswood.

In addition to Willoughby, North Shore and Lane Cove are also not as safe for the Liberals as it once was.

@Hawkeye, I agree that the NSW Liberals are more moderate than the federal Liberals. They are more unified too. It is a big reason why I believe they are relatively competitive in state seats that overlap with federal teal seats.

Opv helps the liberals too.much.
Replace opv with full preferential
But add a savings provision whereby a vote is formal to the extent a voter’s intention can be identified.

@Dan M and @Votante – I agree with you both and, given the redistribution challenges being experienced across Northern Sydney, I can already see a couple of things happening:

1. I wouldn’t be surprised if Davidson gets squeezed completely out of the Northern Beaches, leaving the Northern Beaches with just 3 seats. My early call would be renaming this seat either St Ives or Killara.
2. Willoughby losing everything South of Naremburn to North Shore and, to the point made, renaming the seat Chatswood
3. North Shore losing its western part to Lane Cove, as part of the shift.

The developments around Chatswood and Crows Nest, along the Metro Line, is going to result in some significant re-drawing of the Lower North Shore. The problem remains the continued drop in numbers in the Upper North Shore and the Northern Beaches. I don’t think the Northern Beaches can justify 3.25 seats anymore.

Ive runthe numbers on wolfs calculator. Willoughby will experience changes but there won’t be a seat abolished on the north side. It will be in the inner west. And will be replaced by a seat in the north west. In my draft I’ve remerged summer hill and newtown back into marrickville.

I feel inclined to abolish Heffron when that redistribution opens; it’s the most under quota seat as it is, plus it seems like a more intermediate Inner City seat, it’s split across 4 different LGAs (yes, even including the abomination that is Bayside Council), and some of the surrounding seats aren’t even centred on their namesakes. In exchange, I plan on redrawing some of the Western Sydney seats to squeeze a new seat out of the St Marys/Werrington parts of Londonderry, and have the latter seat take in much of the Hawkesbury.

Anyway, back to Willoughby/the North Shore area, once the densification starts around the Metro stations, I agree it’ll damage the Liberals’ holds on the seat. The question would then be, does that bleed of votes go to Labor, or to an Independent? Chatswood has a substantial Asian population, who as we’ve seen now tend to vote pretty strongly for Labor, but I don’t know how much it’ll transfer to a strengthening of Labor’s vote.

Heffrom is effectively a corner seat. In the fact it’s uses the airport and cooks river asa natural boundary and there was alot of people especially here arguing aginst crossing it. I plan to have it take in the remainder of erskenville from newtown. Then go in and anti clockwise direction from Maroubra. Heffron should be renamed though I’m thinking Mascot. I believe the new seat will be somewhere between Winston Hills, castle Hill and Kellyville around penant Hills.

In regards to hawkesbury I’m planning to remove dural, the Hills shire and pitt town.

Back at the last redistribution, there was the possibility of abolishing a North Shore seat and creating one further west. My suggestion did that – I abolished Davidson and created “Pennant Hills”. You can see the result of *not* doing that – Ku-ring-gai/Wahroonga getting pushed all the way to Westleigh, and Hornsby becoming a mess. I would suspect at the next redistribution numerical requirements will render such a redrawing inevitable.