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Greens have done really well here, is there another seat where there vote is higher?
@SpaceFish – I believe the Greens have polled over 20% in Heysen at least once, they did in 2022 and I have a vague memory they also did in 2014. They’ve come second there a few times.
Back to Dunstan, the demographics here suggest it is likely a LIB v GRN contest and I feel a teal will do well in this area.
I thought Greens did better in Unley but double checked and it was 18.7% – slightly below their Dunstan by-election performance. With Unley still being Liberals held, Greens have more cause to challenge than a traditional Liberal seat with a Labor incumbent.
James is right about Heysen and that remains the Greens best prospect of a gain. It’s also an area where it will be hard for Greens to outcompete a teal (same is true for Unley tbh)
Greens cracked 20% in federal Adelaide (and 23% 3CP) in 2022 but have not been able to get it together for the state seat. In 2025 they explicitly focusing on Sturt and preselected a uni student, and they announced Adelaide with the same time and energy that they announced a bunch of other SA candidates. IIRC the 2022 state candidate was a late replacement too.
All that to say it’s not clear where or even if Greens will be able to get their first lower house seats (not counting serial party hopper Kris Hanna’s brief stint as a Green MP)
So the Liberals have chosen Anna Finizio again for this seat, could be interesting.
Saw her Facebook page, seems like she has changed a lot of her branding/campaign material to be a bit more ‘independent’, similar to Rachel Westaway in Prahran. (e.g. incorporation of non-Liberal brand colours, no Liberal logo)
@James I don’t think it will matter too much anyways, given that come next state election she’ll be one of many sacrificial lambs when the Liberals receive a shellshacking from Labor.
Tommo and James, not sure what faction Anna Finizio comes from but if she is a moderate like Chris Pyne and Simon Birmingham then she would be an ideal candidate for the federal seat of Sturt and could run a close race against new Labor MP Claire Clutterham. Although she like many other prospective challengers may wish to wait until the next decade when the national environment will be more favourable.
@Yoh An Two things that will work against Anna Finizio:
1) She’s clearly a parachute candidate given that a few years ago she contested Hindmarsh in the federal election and (unsurprisingly) lost to the now-Health Minister Mark Butler.
2) In her Dunstan campaign in 2024, a lot was being put out about how she’s from the Western suburbs which is totally different to the Eastern part of Adelaide in almost every aspect. Had it been a purely local candidate I suspect she would’ve possibly scraped through but her being parachuted from afar could’ve been the difference between winning and losing that by-election.
In consideration of all that, I’d imagine that she might want to give Sturt a go but the electorate is far from being the blue ribbon heartland it once was. There’s a lot more younger people living in this area which is hostile to the Liberals, Norwood/Kent Town have a lot of apartments going up which will increase the number of renters, and the northern part is more middle-class/working class which is another group the Liberals aren’t resonating with. Unlike some electorates won this year in the Federal election, Sturt is likely to trend progressive in the long term.