Yes, it’s very early, but I’ve launched my partial guide to the next Australian federal election, due in 2028.
This guide covers the 102 House seats in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. These jurisdictions won’t have a redistribution (barring an expansion of parliament). The guide also features guides to the eight Senate contests.
If there is no parliamentary expansion, this redistribution cycle is one of the least significant we’ve had. This makes it easier and quicker to get the guide ready.
I know people are interested in being able to see the maps and data for these electorates, so I have used the quiet post-election period to get this part finished. You can now check it out at your leisure.
As I’ve done for my other recent guides, I haven’t tried to fill in the candidates sections, and I haven’t done the assessments yet. We are so far out from the election and the shape of the electoral battle isn’t clear yet. I’ll write those assessments closer to the election.
The whole guide is available for Tally Room members – those who donate $8 or more (plus GST) per month via Patreon.
If you’d like a sample, I’ve unlocked four seat guides, and one Senate guide.
Links to each seat can be found from the front page of the guide. You can view a list of seats in alphabetical order, in state order or as a pendulum. You can also use the below map to click through to each seat.
So what happens if the parliament is expanded? There is a real possibility that could happen, but it is far from certain. If such a decision is announced, I will probably leave these guides up with a disclaimer. Once the redistributions are finalised, the guide will need to be completely rewritten. If we were certain that the parliament was to be expanded, I wouldn’t be publishing the guide. But it’s not, and if it doesn’t happen there’s a lot of value in this guide for those with a deeper interest.
@Ben,
The La Trobe comment section is turned off.
Thanks, fixed now.
Even if the liberals could pull off a miracle win there’s now way they could unseat enough senators to have even a workable majority with the cross bench. Currently labor and the greens (Inc Thorpe) have 40 out of 76 seats. They would need to lose 3 net in order to control less then half.
@John Agreed, it would be even worse than the Turnbull senate after the 2016 double dissolution election
Thorpe seat will be replaced by a Greens in 2028 (so a Left/Right Split of 3-3 in VIC will remain like in 2022)
The right will likely pick up 1 extra seat in WA so a net loss of 1 is possible.
A net loss of 2 will require a 4-2 Split in QLD in 2028 (Possible but probably not 2028)
A Net loss of 3 will require another 4-2 Split somewhere else like WA or NSW as well.
Pocock is workable but not on climate policy.
@Nimalan I doubt Queensland sees another 2019-level result for the left for a long time. Such a result would likely occur if/when the next change-of-government election occurs. Think like Howard ’96 or Abbott ’13.
Easiest targets for the right in 2028 is WA, which has a 4-2 left to right split, and Tasmania, where Tammy Tyrell is up for re-election (and doesn’t have the profile of Lambie). All other states are 3-3.
@ CJ
I doubt it as well but it is hypothetical especially as there will be an LNP government in May 2028 so a state drag for Labor is not possible.
A reasonable result in WA would be to turn a 4-2 Left/Right Split to 3-3 most likely.
NSW and WA quite possibly will only see a 4-2 Right Split in an election like 1996/2013
I think Victoria and SA are too strong for Left to see a 4-2 Right/Left Split. Happened once in Victoria and that is because Labor preferenced FF over Greens. If Labor preferenced Greens in 2004 then it still would have been a 3-3 Split.
Tammy Tyrells seat may go to Libs/ONP but Labor has never really needed her vote so i dont think they are too concerned.
Plus the only time that we’ve seen a 4-2 right to left split since GVT’s were scrapped was in Queensland in 2019, where a smorgasbord of right parties polled well and Labor collapsed to just one Senate seat.
As for 4-2 left to right splits, we’ve had WA in 2022 and both Victoria and SA this year.
All four results had in excess of 55% 2PP for the major party on that respective wing, and the opposing party lost several seats in each of those states.
@ CJ
Great point about GVT i did not think about that at all. In 2013 the LNP got more than 55% TPP in WA as well while in NSW in 2013 it will slighly less than that at 54% so i do accept 55% is usually the threshold when you can aim for a 4-2 Split. In Tasmania, in 2007/2010 there was a 4-2 Left/Right Split but moth had more than 55% TPP for Labor.
Nimalan they won’t losee any in wa sic e fatima paymans vote is not counted towards labor and she will be the one to lose out. I suspect to one nation so it will be replacing one cross bencher with another.
Cj the Victoria and SA should right itself in 2031
@ John
That is my point but if Fatima Payman’s seat is one by Libs/ONP then the right still picks up a seat.
ONP will replace Ralph Babet in 2028 i suspect but that will mean no change as both are right wing seats
Payman is ideologically on the left, so I’d still say the loss of her seat to the Libs/WA Nats/One Nation is a loss of a left seat to the right.
Yea but right now her vote is irrelevant along with the entire crossbench. As the only way labor can use them is if they all vote together which won’t be happening. They only need the libs or greens to pass legislation
Payman is gone she can in no way win.
No not a chance Payman wins.
@nimalan also it doesnt effect labors numbers they dont actually lose any seats. libs/onp picking up a seat is irrelevant as they still cant pass legislation in the unlikely even they were to win govt.
Yes that a fair point John. If Dutton was in 2025 then Fatima Payman’s number is still important as she is left-wing and would not have helped Dutton.
Another sceanrio in the event Coalition wins in 2028 is if some right wing Labor MPs in Senate like Don Farrell, Raff Ciccione and Deborah O’Neil and become independents like Mal Colston did in 1996 if that happens they could help Liberals with legislaiton Plus a 4-2 split in QLD in 2028. The 3 Labor senators i mentioned are the most right wing.
Farrell is in Cabinet. No way he leaves the party in a situation like that.
@ CJ it is purely hypothetical not saysing it wil happen but Don Farrell is the most socially conservative and like you said i dont think Coalition will get a 4-2 Split in 2028 but i am being a devils advocate and just mapping a best case scenario.
Seats I’m expecting One Nation to do well in 2028. I’m not saying they’ll win these seats rather this where they’ll likely make inroads if the current polling trends continue for One Nation.
Queensland
Herbert, Flynn, Dawson, Capricornia, Wright, Blair, Maranoa, Hinkler, Wide Bay, Kennedy and Groom
NSW
Hunter and New England
SA
Spence
WA
Brand, Canning, O’Conner, Durrak, Bullwinkel, Pearce and Forrest
Tasmania
Bass, Braddon and Lyons
Victoria
Monash and Gippsland
I expect ONP to do well in Mallee and Nicholls as well and other regional NSW seats. I think Spence is urbanising and the ONP will decrease it will likely only take votes from Libs who only got 18.7% ONP will do better in Barker and Grey
Yes true Nimalan,
Parkes in NSW would be another, I did look at Grey, Barker, Mallee and Nicholls but One Nation seems to have never done that great but I agree it’s likely to surge through those seats as well.
@nimlan well she would have been more pliable for example she was in favour of mantaining th elive sheep export trade
yes maybe on WA live sheep but probably not on Climate change legislation repeal.If Raff Ciccione falls out with Labor he maybe willing to vote for that
its irrelevant anyway. she wont be around to support anything soon
looks like the Hastie train is picking up steam
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_FBK&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Fliberal-party-moderates-abandon-sussan-ley-begin-move-to-andrew-hastie%2Fnews-story%2F54f56f0f57cb3f812c310f75442b84d6&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPB-Segment-2-NOSCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append
@Spacefish I doubt One Nation goes near Kennedy if a Katter runs.
@ John
Ok maybe lets forget about Payman what is the best case Senate scenario for Coalition in 2028 on the topic of the Senate.
The latest 6 news poll has onp winning 6 lower house seats off the LNP. Parkes, Wright, capricornia, grey, Hinkler, wide bay, alp winning Longman and not Mitchell. Inds winning Forrest and Monash and the alp.winning Ryan and Fowler. Take that with a grain of salt.
@nimalan pretty much status quo. i can see them or ONP wining Paymans spot. i think tyrell will lose to ONP. they might lose a senator in SA to ONP or retain their 3rd spot. possibly lose a senator to ONP in NSW. ONP will probably pickup Babets spot in VIC. they could theoretically topple Gallagher in ACT if they have a good year (doubtful) and maybe get a 3rd senator in qld at the expense of labor or maybe Rennick can get up? (possible but not hopeful) so they can theoretically take out some crossbenchers to sure up their numbers.
currently labor and the greens have 39 seats 29 labor 10 greens. assuming labor loses one of its senators in wa to the greens because of the defection and lidia thorpe either rejoins the grreens or they oust her (either way) labor would end up with 28 senators and the greens 12. theoretically if they could have a really good year and push labor back to 26. that gives them 38 votes on the floor so the libs cant pass legislation without the greens (highly doubtful) or labor similar to the current arrangement. with ONP or LIB winning the remaining seats you have Pocock and Lambie labor would need to deal with. but i seriosly doubt the libs would be in a position to win govt anyway but i wont say never because shorten was able to reduce the libs to a bare majority in ’16.
2031 is more hopeful though. they should be able to topple labors 3rd senaotrs in sa and vic even if it replaces them with a ONP senator. and jacqui lambie is set to retire as well. in which either the libs or onp should collect her spot.
@ John
Thanks much appreciated. I agree either LNP or ONP will pick up seats currently held by Payman, Tyrell and Babet in 2028.
To win a right wing majority in 2031 they need to look for some 4-2 splits WA, QLD and NSW are probably best bets. I dont think they can be 4-2 Right/Left Split in SA, VIC or Tas even in landslide for Coalition like 1996 or 2013.
I think it is difficult to knock out Katy Gallagher in the ACT unless there is a major ACT Government scandal
@nimalan maybe not in 2028 but i wont rule it out in 2031. i dont think they will get a 4-2 split in nsw.
@ John
4-2 Split in NSW happened in 2013 with LDP but i agree it is very hard. 2013 was a result in NSW for Labor than in 1996 or even 1975 it was actually only Harold Holt’s landslide 1966 result which was worse for Labor in NSW than 2013
Plus, 2013 was assisted by GVT’s.
The only non-GVT induced 4-2 right to left split occurred in 2019 in Queensland. That ended up being a 58-59% 2PP for the Coalition.
Agree CJ but I want to test out a hypothetical worst case scenario not saying it will happen by any stretch but I don’t want to anyone to reflect on Murphy laws in retrospect in life I always say we should hope for the best but expect the worst.
One thing I’ve noticed with the 4-2 splits for either wing; it gives an insight to preference discipline, and the left was more disciplined with preferences than the right before this year.
In 2022, the left got a 4-2 break in WA, where Labor’s 2PP was 55%. In 2019, the right got a 4-2 split in Queensland, with a 2PP of 58%.
2025 saw right wing preferences (predominantly from One Nation) become much more tightly coalesced, and it helped the right scrape a 3-3 split in NSW and WA, despite Labor 2PP’s of more than 55% each.
If the right can get a 55% 2PP in a state, that could be enough to get a 4-2 split.