Fowler – Australia 2028

Despite Labor running Tu Le who is a good fit for the area, Dai Le managed to hold on and had a small swing in her favour. Dai could be like Cathy McGowan/Helen Haines in Indi, being a durable incumbent who will hold onto this seat until she chooses to retire.

One interesting thing is a big notional Swing back to Labor. Labor got 84% notional versus Lib in some of its heartland booths in Cabramatta, Yennora so this seat is not showing signs of realigning to Libs

If Labor couldn’t beat dai le in its best election since sliced bread with a superstar candidate its hard to see them winning against Dai Le ever.

Unless Dai Le backs a minority Coalition government.

Nimalan, would there be a significant impact if Dai Le chooses to back the Coalition under a minority government? I thought Dai was a former Liberal member herself and being seen as a community minded independent similar to the Teals, she shouldn’t have any problem winning re-election no matter which side she ends up supporting.

Unless she is like Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor, who were criticised harshly when they sided with Labor and Gillard instead of the Coalition due to holding a seat that naturally ‘leans’ in the other direction.

@ Yoh An
Maybe not to the extent as Rob Oakshott and tony Windsor their seats are both econimically and socially conservative. While Fowler is more like a reverse Teal seat (Economically left, Socially conservative on religious matters but not Nationalist etc)/ However, this seat would not take kindly to budget cuts etc or IR reform.

I dont think that’s gonna matter for at least 10 years. The libs aren’t gonna be in a position to govern in any form in 2028. Even if she backs them in 2031 she won’t face any repercussions until 2034.

The swings in different parts of the electorate tell an interesting story. Dai Le consolidated her primary vote in the western end of the electorate. In the eastern end (particularly Cabramatta), there were big primary vote swings to Labor. The two cancelled each other out, and the overall 2CP swing was small. This could also in part explain why the 2PP surged in Labor’s favour.

Dai Le and Frank Carbone worked hard for over a decade to deliver for their local community – meaning Tu Le never had a chance despite Labor’s strong Federal result

thats explained by the fact Dai Le is most known in the fairfield parts of the seat where her vote would naturally be strongest.

Dai le entrenched her self…things may well have been different if kkk.had not been parachuted in

What is interesting is that Fowler has one of the highest Labor votes in the Seat (if not the Highest). It is higher than Chifley, Blaxland, Rankin and Watson. So while Dai Le may have entrenched herself the Labor brand may have recovered Labor senate vote was 50%. Having Tu Le as candidate i still think was still a good idea to show voters in this seat that they have not abandoned them. Warringah in 2019 had a senate vote of almost 48% so there was a 12% vote delta between what Tony Abbott got and what Liberals got at Senate level. However, since then Liberals PV has collapsed at the both houses. I would recommend Labor still runs Tu Le in 2028 and 2031 even if they dont win the seat back so they keep their brand here.

The sophomore surge was likely a factor for Dai Le. The Liberal vote and brand collapsed and I believe the Liberal candidate in 2025 was in the news for the wrong reasons. This probably made some Liberal voters switch to Dai Le. Labor is probably still kicking themselves for not fielding Tu Le in 2022.

@nimalan They need to read the room in these seats and keep selecting candidates that match the demography. The Keneally preselection in 2022 was highly inappropriate for such a multicultural seat.

I think Dai Le will hold Fowler for as long as she runs, though she did suffer big swings around Cabramatta which is where her base (the big Vietnamese population) is located. Once Dai Le resigns/retires Labor will win it back unless if they do another Keneally. Hopefully Tu Le will keep contesting in the future and build her profile, and maybe she might get a chance to win some time.

Labor is probably still kicking themselves for not fielding Tu Le in 2022.

@Votante

There are some in the branches in Fowler who blame Tu Le for going to the media that built up the big public resentment towards Kristina Keneally being parachuted in the first place it was reported.

Don’t get me wrong the party got burnt for one too many captains pick that has finally come to haunt them. But its just too simplistic to suggest Labor is kicking themselves for not choosing Le. Le was hand picked by the previous member. That already there is a red flag when there were other local prospective candidates interested in standing who arguably had more local branch support then Le. Le stood in the Cabramatta state preselection and didn’t get even close to winning it.

I dispute the idea that Dai Le’s base is Cabramatta. If you look back at the 2022 results (on my 2025 guide), her best booth is Abbotsbury. She did best in the most right-wing parts of the seat where she had more Liberal votes to gain either as primary votes or 2CP preferences. That mattered more than her picking up votes in the Vietnamese community (although that undoubtedly contributed). She did win some of the Cabramatta booths in 2022 but not by as much. And in 2025, when there were two Vietnamese candidates, that divide became clearer. Cabramatta is a left-leaning area (even within Fowler) and so it favours the Labor candidate over the independent.

@ CJ
I agree they need to pick candidates that reflect target demographic. While Dan Repacholi was a Capitain’s pick he does actually look like the target demographic
@PN
While i accept that local branch members may blame for Tu Le for going to media and amplying the issue, with all due respect they dont decide the outcome of the seat. If they dont like Tu Le they can select another Vietnamese Australian. At least in Cabramatta at the State election they preselected a Vietnamese Australian who won the seat and i expect will receive a big swing to him in 2027.
Much of the local resentment was that that a White Woman from a Posh party of Sydney was selected for one of the least Anglo and most econonmically deprived electorates.
This is the problem that the Liberals especially in Victoria have especially with the Moira Deeming issue they are more interested in placting their membership base than Swing voters. Clearly if Tu Le or another CALD candidate was preselected in 2022 Labor would have easily held this seat. The Danger after losing to Dai Le is that Dai Le may infact back a minority Coalition government unlike a Greens MP.

@Nimalan Dai Le could very well be handing herself the death sentence in terms of being re-elected if she ever backed a minority Liberal government. It would be like Bob Katter or Andrew Gee backing a Labor government. Wouldn’t work for the demographics of their seats and there’ll be just as much backlash as KK being parachuted. Fowler is a Labor seat by default in all other years without Dai Le, no way it would change to supporting Liberals even if hell froze over.

@Ben Raue thanks for your analysis and I had a look at the polling places which confirmed your theory. Interestingly had it not been for those areas Dai Le would’ve been easily defeated on Cabramatta/Liverpool figures alone. I think Dai Le could still hold on in the future but it won’t be a comfortable gap like Zali Steggall over in Warringah. Le’s very focused on local issues and that could work in her favour, but Tu Le isn’t a weak candidate at all and if she keeps running will at least keep the seat in play.

@ Tommo9
I agree, While maybe not to the extent as Katter or Andrew Gee she would face a backlash even more than if the Teals back Labor. While there maybe some overlap between Libs and Fowler on some social policy especially religious-based issues such as LGBT issues the difference is that as Fowler is much poorer and people dont have luxury to focus on social issues and economic issues are much greater priority which is why it is harder for Libs to win red wall seats than it is for Labor to win a blue wall seat. It is very unlikely that Libs can win Fowler maybe not to extent as Grayndler, Cooper or Wills but it is more likely Labor will Kooyong/Mitchell before Libs can win Fowler.

nightwatchmen. thats something that runs on both sides. both sides have a history of trying to get their political mates into safe seats and then ended up losing them. notably the Scomo and liberals in Gilmore in 2022 trying to get warren mundine in, he was less known at this time at had they run their original candidate they would probably still hold both Bega and Gilmore. less so Aston but if they hadnt of tried to parachute in whats her name then they would probably still hold Aston. likewise if labor ran Tu Le they would probaby still hold Fowler. but power brokers usually always get what they want.

i dont think dai le will ever be in a position where she needs to back a liberal minority government tbh.

there is no way i think Tu Le can ever beat Dai Le in my opinion this was labor best election in probably ever. yet not only could they not win the seat back after throwing everything bar the kitchen sink at Dai Le she actually increased hr margin.

the same as the ibs can probably never unseat Zali Stegall or Allegra Spender. the jury is still out on Sophie Scamps, Nicolette Boele and Kate Chaney. in opinion though. also the nats will never unseat Andrew Gee barring some major scandal or them backing the wrong horse in minority government. independents are just too strong and able to attract votes from the other major parties in order to stay in office. so unless they betray their electorates it would be almost impossible to unseat them. i would be willing to wager that Jessica Price and Kate Hulett will win their respective seats should they run again (Price has already confirmed she would) Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel are the exception to this rule. they obviously were the weakest of the teals in the fact they alienated voters in their seats and Ryan had some controversies. (stealing her opponents signs didnt do her any favours either)

@nimalan id say its just as easy for the libs to win red wall seats as it is for labor to win blue wall seats. labor obviosuly just had alandslide elction win in part due to the poor efforts of th libs. the libs made a small gain in ballarat and the swing in seats like hawke and gorton was neilble despite the swing away natiaonally. before the libs disaster of a campagin and trump i reckon they probably could have toppled a first term government.

@ John
Firstly i am not sure if i will call Bendigo or Ballarat a Red Wall seat they have a history of being held by both parties. A Red Wall seat would be won that has never been held by the Coalition such as Fowler, Calwell, Chifley etc.
The Difference between blue wall and red wall seats. Is that in Blue Wall seats there will be some people who will vote against their economic interest due to Social values such as climate etc in Red Wall seats like Fowler many people will agree with Moira Deeming for example but the problem is economics is a bigger priority so people are less likely vote against their economic interest. That is a fact of life in psychology there is something known as Maslow’s Hierachy of Needs where poorer people have to worry about day to day survival. That is irrespective of bad campaign, Trump etc. I know people who have better paid jobs then I do so they dont worry as much about interest rates etc. Where Centre Left governments fail is when they do not have an economic narrative but focus on social issues such as the Democrats. If Centre Left governments can maintain a focus on bread and buttter issues they will not suffer a backlash in Red Wall seats even if they are socially progressive.Gorton and Hawke have localised issues such as Melton line/Western Highway.