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What are the chances Ralph Babet will loose his seat to ONP?
What are the chances Ralph Babet will loose his seat to ONP?
@Nimalan
Ralph Babet has said in the Australian that he won’t recontest his senate seat when his term expires in 2028.
On Insiders, Patricia Karvelas suggested some in the Liberal Right are not happy with Senator Sarah Henderson’s attempt to play kingmaker, undermining Sussan Ley’s leadership. While you could argue that some in the faction don’t support Ley’s leadership, they are also aware of striking prematurely. Karvelas has said, ‘it wasn’t part of the plan’ and could jeopardise her preselection. Liberal candidate in the Aston bye-election Roshena Campbell name has been thrown up as a potential replacement on the ticket she mentioned.
I recently sent Sarah Henderson an email about her comments about ABC reporter John Lyons. To her credit, she responded within 24 hours – politely disagreeing with my comments but it was obvious my quite long email had been read. Always nice to see a timely response fron an MP. I contrast that with the response to an email that I sent to a local upper house MP who is also a Victorian ALP minister. Could have been answered with a two or three line response – waited weeks and response was a ministerial letter from another minister providing a detailed answer . Problem was that events overtook the original question so I already had the answer. God knows how many thousands of dollars of Vic PS were spent answering a simple question that the MPs office could have done in an hour or so.
I’d expect a right-wing party to win the final seat. Won’t be Babet obviously, but One Nation didn’t poll very well here this year. They failed to crack 5%.
The Coalition vote is low but I expect it to bounce up again.
Expect one nation to pick up his seat along with the 3 rd labor seat in 2031. They came close to beating labor on a good year for labor. It stands to reason they can win it when things go bad for labor. Or just well for the libs.
@nightwatchmen. Susan Ley is undermining Susan Leys leadership. I give her until Anzac Day. I think her opponents will give her enough rope to hang herself with.
@John
Oof… that’s a rough metaphor.
As someone who had high hopes for Ley, I have been disappointed thus far. She says a lot of inane things. Like making a fuss over Albanese’s t-shirt. And opposition for opposition’s sake. Petty politics. And with that, I have given up hope for the Liberal Party and accepted that I’ll be voting Labor for the foreseeable future.
I’ll be voting One Nation. I do anyway but that was just to help them out financially. Susan Ley is probably the last remnant of the Howard govt. i had high hopes for Dutton who seemed pretty good right up until the campaign started. I have never been hopeful of Susan Ley. During the last leadership contest I would have abstained if I were voting.
I expect to see Samantha Ratnam run for the Greens to take Lidia Thorpe’s senate seat. It’s basically hers since she’s basically the most senior currently-non-elected Green left in Victoria. She’d be stupid to run in Wills again when the senate is basically in the bag for her.
My guess is either Samantha Ratnam or Adam Bandt will jostle for the top of the Greens senate ticket.
Bandt is in the ACF, and they’ve confirmed he won’t play any more active roles in the Greens.
Does Ratnam want to represent Wills? Or go into the Senate? The Senate seat is guaranteed to be hers, but she’d be the best choice to win Wills.
Bandt won’t return to politics, It’s likely Ratnam will give Wills another go given how close it was and there will likely be a anti-Labor swing in 2028 and Labor will be defending way to many seats.
The house is the place to be if you want to effect real change. Will’s will be a shoe in for the greens so why waste ratnam on a senate spot you can give to an unnamed lackey.