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This is basically a non-contest. Labor actually won the notional 2PP against the Liberals, and did so in a thumping way. Steggall got yet another swing to her, and this was all despite a moderate woman being preselected by the Liberals, and suggestions that there would be a swing against Steggall.
Fair to say I think the Liberal brand is on life support in this part of Sydney.
I think in a seat like this the Liberals are better off now ensuring that Zali Stegall remains the MP so that Labor does not win the seat, same with Wentworth and Mayo.
This seat is Zali’s until she retires. Current boundaries are more favourable to the left with the densification around North Sydney. It’s not inconceivable for Labor to pull off a victory here. Same goes for Wentworth. The only way for the Libs to have a shot here is for a 180 degree turn to the centre on social and culture war issues and maintaining an economically right position.
@Dan for Labor to win this seat, a lot would have to go right for them. So far the only pathways are:
A. Steggall retires and Labor runs a full guns ablazing campaign.
Or
B. The Liberal vote drops so low that they finish 3rd, and their preferences sees Labor defeat Steggall. I don’t think this one is likely as IIRC they preferenced the Teals above Labor this year.
It’ll take climbing an electoral Everest for the ALP to win Warringah, even if it’s left-leaning nowadays. It’s like Labour in the UK not having a shot of winning any Liberal Democrat seats (like Wimbledon) even if those are more moderate than the past when the Tories won them.
Labor will need to either have:
1) A Teal (post-Steggall) that runs third but above 20% and Labor getting about 25-30% themselves and rely on preferences from that Teal/Greens to beat the Liberals.
OR
2) No Teals and Labor campaigning hard to mop up all of the Steggall votes and get above 35% and rely on the Greens getting 10-15% in Warringah.
Labor won’t finish first in Warringah in any cases given the way the electorate runs and it’s difficult to see them win (their 2PP win was purely based on an assumed strong preference flow from Steggall to Labor and a strong Steggall vote), but then again, they almost won North Sydney if it wasn’t for Kylea Tink so it’s probably more plausible than every before.