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Labor completely smashes the remote voting centres, Labor should have no issues holding here.
The big issue is turnout and formality.
If Ley (or anyone else) can somewhat repair relations can somewhat repair relations with the Indigenous community then it could be winnable.
Remember the seat was hyper-marginal in 2022, and even now sits only around 3 points left of the national centre.
I think it was hyper marginal in 2022 as it was the first time since 1984 when Warren Snowdon was not on the ballot. While it can be won it does not have the demographics of a swing electorate. It is not really Middle Australia or mortgage belt and is probably the most demographically unique electorate in the country while maybe Aston or Deakin is the most demographically average electorate.
Agree Nimalan, Lingiari like Solomon often has mixed results with inconsistent swings relative to the nationwide average. Local issues like the NT intervention can have a significant impact in this seat, and it also has a mix of demographic groups (ethnically white voters in the regional towns of Alice Springs and Katherine, who are considered conservative leaning and then remote Indigenous communities who generally support Labor).
Correct Yoh An
Also indigenious communities have high welfare dependency and low levels of home ownership so things such as Interest rates etc have a less of an impact here compared to electorates where you have the streotypical median like Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne, Bonner, Makin etc. This is why Lingiari does not often follow the state trend. NT intervention will be an issue here but not something average voter pays attention to. Neither are things like Public Transport etc. It is also a very hard seat to go door knocking in
Part of the swing can be explained by the increase in enrollment thanks to the voice. At the election formality increased by 3% and turnout improved by 2%. This of course works in labors favour as it is indigenous voters in remote communities that are the least likely to turnout and have a higher proportion of informality. Improving both of these factors would obviously increase labors vote. At the last NT election labor won all of its seats in this seat
Indigenous communities aren’t as Labor-voting as they used to be, but they still tend to lean Labor. The swings in them are very inconsistent though.
Alice and Katherine vote CLP because they’re just typical regional cities/towns. Law and order is a huge issue in Tennant Creek which is what makes it more CLP-leaning now, despite its large Aboriginal population who speak an Aboriginal language (urban, regional and rural Indigenous people are more likely to vote Coalition than remote Indigenous people).
Tennant Creek is 55.4% Indigenous (though split between multiple different language groups) but only 36.7% of the town speaks a language other than English. Of Aboriginal people it’s 42.4% non-English and 48.9% English.
Id imagine if turnout here were up in the 90s as is the national average labor would win here comfortably. However the low turnout keeps it competitive for the clp.