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Labor hold, nothing to see here.
Nor do i expect a a big swing here.
Against the grain of those previous comments I think Laverton will be an interesting seat to watch, a lot of residents here have voted differently since 2022.
This is the Greens second target within the Western Metro district (after Footscray of course) and partly sits within the federal seat of Fraser which after the 2025 election is a Greens target. In addition this is an underserviced area, of the few developments are controversial AI data centres which both the Greens and Victorian Socialists are centering campaigns against. The Greens candidate, Kororoit Creek Ward councilor Lucy Nguyen, looks like a strong choice and should be able to build on the infrastructure from Fraser 2025 and her own 2024 council race (33.7% primary).
Additionally what I did not realize until looking today is that in the western section of the seat (Williams Landing, Trunganina, Laverton North) within the federal seat of Gellibrand also swung heavily towards the Greens in 2025. Their booth results are mostly between 15-20% with 31.5% at Trunganina South.
Adding to all this is are the West Party and One Nation if the polls are to be trusted and Labor is draining voters, down to the 20% mark, their fragmentation could be the Greens’ (or West Party or even VicSocs) gain.
@Vandon,
Definitely valid points you’ve made. I must admit when I made the comment above the state government was in a much better position and the data centres won’t really a thing. It’s possible that more young people have moved further out which would assist the Greens and Victorian Socialists here which underestimated. I don’t think at this state election there is such thing as a safe seat anymore and we will certainly get some weird results come November.
It is possible that this becomes an ALP vs GRN contest. This would depend on a boost in the Greens and Vic Socialists vote. I’m certain will be a drop in primary votes for the two major parties.
Lucy Nguyen appears to have a strong personal vote from her part in Brimbank LGA. The Greens have an incentive to do well here to boost their odds of getting a Western Metro MLC up.
I think the West Party will be stronger further west where infrastructure is lacking, the population is growing and there is less interest from the Greens and Vic Socialists.
I mean Footscray will come first for the Greens, but with the fall of Liberal momentum against One Nation a ALP-GRN distribution looks likely to me even though the Labor majority will be hard to overcome.
In any case both VicSoc and the Greens seem to see this as the next frontier in the West, moreso than St. Albans (Greens are yet to select a candidate there), as I’ve seen videos from both their Laverton candidates on my Instagram feed. As a sidenote VS’ Van Thanh Rudd has 5k followers which is high for a state candidate but idk how that translates into local community support.
West Party is a total unknown factor if they take 10-15% from Labor then it could be a close race or they may just flop on <5%. I can imagine a mess like: Labor 30%, Greens 20%, Liberals 10%, One Nation 10%, VicSoc 10%, West Party 10%.
The right’s share of the vote will certainly be quite split but is likely to rise on current polls – Redbridge in their upper house region breakdowns showed ONP up at 30% with the Liberal vote only dropping marginally, however this seat could buck that trend somewhat. Yes the Greens and VicSoc will campaign hard here and there will be next to nothing from either ONP or the Liberals but I do find it hard to imagine a situation where the Liberals drop out of the 2CP in this cycle unless ONP run ahead of them.
One way that could be countered is if the Greens/VicSoc go door to door and drive higher turnout, as this seat saw a higher than typical informal rate as well as one of the lower turnouts at only 83%.
Interesting point about the data centres too – could that be an exploitable factor in Kororoit as well?
@ Maxim
There is a handful of seats where i think could buck the trend and swing to Labor on TPP, this one, St Albans, Greenvale and Broadmeadows. That is because i think parties like Freedom Party, DLP may have picked up ethnic working class voters especially Muslims due to lockdowns i doubt any will swing back to Labor on primary votes but could swing to Greens/VS instead and this will flow to Labor on TPP. I think in electorates where DLP were higher on the ballot paper last time such as this seat and St Albans may have seen an inflated DLP vote as they appear on the ballot paper “Labour DLP” so if they happen to fall down the ballot paper their vote may be supressed. I think Korororit has a higher Eastern/Southern European community especially Caroline Springs where ONP will do much better than in Laverton.