Sunbury – Victoria 2026

This seat has a history of being close but I think as the population grows and the seat shrinks Labor should hold on.

@ SpaceFish
This is a possible Liberal win. The seat of Tullamarine which covers much of the same area was Liberal held during the Kennett seat is is less industrial and more middle class also not very ethnically diverse. The delay to Airport Rail will hurt Labor here but Metro Tunnel/Level crossing removals will mitigate some of that anger.

I was more saying long term however, I do agree in the short term this seat is vulnerable.

Libs will need this seat if they want to form.government

The Metro Tunnel is slated to open in December 2025. The Sunbury line will have more connections with the CBD as well as to the Pakenham and Cranbourne Lines. Labor might use this as a selling point to help sandbag Sunbury and Sydenham. There might be some anger due to airport rail delays and other infrastructure shortfalls especially since the other parts of Melbourne, mainly over east and south, get priority.

Jess Wilson has visited here with the Liberal candidate Simmone Cottom who ran in the federal seat of Hawke. I think the candidate choice is a smart move and talking about lack of infrastructure should cut through, what’s interesting is Moira Deeming is campaigning with Jess Wilson.

This seat is one where ONP may surge if they get over 20% of the primary vote statewide they may pick up Sunbury.

I was watching a video from Anglo Election insights on One Nations election chances. It does say that most of the potential gains will be from Labor in the Outer rim of Melbourne.
Sunbury like i said before is an area where ONP will do well and can potentially win
1. One nation will do well in areas with large Southern/Eastern Europeans-something that i have constantly said
2. It will do well in Anglo parts of NW Melbourne
3. They will not do well in diverse growth areas like Tarneit
4. They can win Lara as the video said
5. In Narre Warren North and Cranbourne it is predicted ONP can come second but not win. Again in some areas it will be a sectarian headcount as it will lead to ethnic polarisation

If One Nation wanted to have a serious chance here they’d promise to do upgrades to the Calder Freeway like widen it with a 1-2 extra lanes and do road resurfacing as its seriously needed out that way.

I wonder if Bernie Finn could be the Pne Nation Candidate in this seat given he lived in Sunbury and was actually a lower house MP there but under the abolished seat of Tullamarine (really in practice it was renamed Sunbury?

*One Nation

Does he actually add much in terms of personal appeal to the ONP brand? I would have thought being a former MP his experience would be sorely needed for ONP and they’ll try to ensure he gets elected by having him lead the Western metro ticket. Think that is the plan too as I remember hearing rumours he was prepared to ‘switch seats’ in order to accomodate a potential defection from Moria Deeming

I saw the Liberals campaigning out here yesterday it appears they think there’s a chance this time round.

Sunbury is within the range of critical, must-win seats if the Liberals want to win majority government. It is outer suburban and has more low-income households. No doubt, there is anger and an anti-Labor swing coming. The Liberals are probably capitalising on the collapse of the Labor vote and wanting to get a head start over One Nation.

There is a large chance that the One Nation Candidate there would be Bernie Finn as he lives in Bulla and was the member for this seat (under the previously named ‘Tullamarine’ from 1992 to 1999).

@ Votante
I would not describe Sunbury as low income rather it is middle income. While it is part of Greater Melbourne it is permemently seperated from the contagious urban area due to the Airport Flight path and associated Green Wedge, so it functions more like large country town. This seat is a bit like Camden, NSW and i feel ONP will be strong here and could win this seat. The video i had posted above talks in Sunbury

@Nimlan, yes, I agree that ONP has a strong chance. It is middle income. It has more tradies and fewer degree holders and white-collar professionals. Sunbury, the suburb, is like a country town.

A possible result is Labor comes first on primary votes and the right-wing vote is split but thanks to a low Labor primary vote and right-wing preference flows from one to another, either the Liberals or ONP gains.

Some parts of Sunbury are quite established whereas the outskirts of Sunbury are new housing estates. What I saw when I was driving around was a lot of tradies.

@Votante, that’s what I think will likely happen is Labor’s primary vote will be split and either Liberals or One Nation will win. It appears the Liberals are hoping that by running the same candidate that perhaps some name recognition might help. Despite the disastrous federal election Simmone Cottom actually performed better than vast majority of Liberal mps and candidates.

Agree @Votante, if it becomes a Labor V ONP conest with Libs running third ONP can win this. I expect ONP primary here to be higher than statewide primary.

Unlike other growth corridors such as Wollert, Micklemham Melton or the Wyndham area this area does not attract many CALD residents