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This seat has a history of being close but I think as the population grows and the seat shrinks Labor should hold on.
@ SpaceFish
This is a possible Liberal win. The seat of Tullamarine which covers much of the same area was Liberal held during the Kennett seat is is less industrial and more middle class also not very ethnically diverse. The delay to Airport Rail will hurt Labor here but Metro Tunnel/Level crossing removals will mitigate some of that anger.
I was more saying long term however, I do agree in the short term this seat is vulnerable.
Libs will need this seat if they want to form.government
The Metro Tunnel is slated to open in December 2025. The Sunbury line will have more connections with the CBD as well as to the Pakenham and Cranbourne Lines. Labor might use this as a selling point to help sandbag Sunbury and Sydenham. There might be some anger due to airport rail delays and other infrastructure shortfalls especially since the other parts of Melbourne, mainly over east and south, get priority.
Jess Wilson has visited here with the Liberal candidate Simmone Cottom who ran in the federal seat of Hawke. I think the candidate choice is a smart move and talking about lack of infrastructure should cut through, what’s interesting is Moira Deeming is campaigning with Jess Wilson.
This seat is one where ONP may surge if they get over 20% of the primary vote statewide they may pick up Sunbury.
I was watching a video from Anglo Election insights on One Nations election chances. It does say that most of the potential gains will be from Labor in the Outer rim of Melbourne.
Sunbury like i said before is an area where ONP will do well and can potentially win
1. One nation will do well in areas with large Southern/Eastern Europeans-something that i have constantly said
2. It will do well in Anglo parts of NW Melbourne
3. They will not do well in diverse growth areas like Tarneit
4. They can win Lara as the video said
5. In Narre Warren North and Cranbourne it is predicted ONP can come second but not win. Again in some areas it will be a sectarian headcount as it will lead to ethnic polarisation
If One Nation wanted to have a serious chance here they’d promise to do upgrades to the Calder Freeway like widen it with a 1-2 extra lanes and do road resurfacing as its seriously needed out that way.
I wonder if Bernie Finn could be the Pne Nation Candidate in this seat given he lived in Sunbury and was actually a lower house MP there but under the abolished seat of Tullamarine (really in practice it was renamed Sunbury?
*One Nation
Does he actually add much in terms of personal appeal to the ONP brand? I would have thought being a former MP his experience would be sorely needed for ONP and they’ll try to ensure he gets elected by having him lead the Western metro ticket. Think that is the plan too as I remember hearing rumours he was prepared to ‘switch seats’ in order to accomodate a potential defection from Moria Deeming