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This seat has gone under some serious gentrification and it could end up being a three way horse race where the Greens and Liberals both improve.
The Kingsville South booth ttp doesn’t look correct, I can’t see the ttp being 52.3/47.8 where Labor gets a primary vote of 42.7%, Greens get 22.2% and Liberals get 21.4%. The ttp should more be like 66.9%/33.1% or something like that.
The opening of the westgate tunnel might worsen the already bad air quality here and induce increased heavy vehicle traffic on local roads (moreso in Footscray next door I think but still), could be ripe for the right IND to exploit, Liberal primary might be inflated due to a popular local councillor running last time.
A Teal could win here if it becomes a ALP V TEAL contest. Last time there were Anti-Lockdown swings in Altona North the working class parts. I think that will reverse a bit. In the Federal election this seat especially poorer areas had a big swing to Labor. There were also swings around Maddox Road due to Level Crossing controversy.
I dont think Gentrification will benefit the current direction of the Libs as this seat is very Secular.