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This electorate has being under gentrification with a lot of retires moving here who don’t want to be too far from the city but can’t afford the other side of town, this could be in the long term a swing seat like the other sand belt on the other side of the Yarra.
This area is a bit like Greenway highly educated and CALD. there was a big swing to Labor in Gellobrand Altona Meadows is working class though
Greenway also had huge swings to Labor, both in 2022 and 2025 to the point it’s one of the few federal seats where Labor has >50% of the primary vote. Point Cook won’t be in play for a while. It should be a seat the Libs would be competitive in but they are hopeless.
I often describe Point Cook as a younger Glen Waverley demographically.
Kos Samaras pointed out that one thing that is saving Labor in the Western Suburbs is growing Indian/other South Asian community. This is a demographic that is aspirational, educated, high income and generally socially conservative. There is a percecption that Liberals dont like them and this research was done before Senator Price’s comments. Point Cook has one of the largest Indian communities in the country and unlike Muslims there is no geopolitical misalignments with the West. A lot of the seats Libs need to win to form government have large Indian communities (Point Cook, Melton, Pakenham, Glen Waverley and parts of Yan Yean (Donnybrook/Wollert). It may not last forever for example Kos Samaras in the same article point out that Greeks/Italians were once a solid Labor block but have moved rightwards. However, if Labor could have a couple of terms of dominance with this demographic than Libs are forced to look at the Teal seats once again whether they like it or not.
The Victorian Liberals will have a better chance of winning outer suburban seats like Point Cook and Werribee if they just stick to the core economic issues and hammer Labor on lack of service delivery, similar to what the nsw coalition and Liberals focussed on in the leadup to the 2011 state election.
Straying too far into culture war rhetoric and anti immigration views simply harms them in these migrant heavy communities.
Point Cook would be better for an ind
The huge field of candidates (>10) and vote fracturing or vote splitting are interesting. You can say the same with Melton and Werribee and others in the western suburbs. It makes it harder for another party or independent to break through. This is because protest voters and apathetic voters have many options to choose from. Their votes then flow in different directi9ns following preferences. Independents struggle to even get 10% of primary votes.
A lot of the vote is split between left-wing and right-wing parties. Parties like the Greens, Victorian Socialists, AJP and Legalise Cannabis preference Labor ahead of Liberal. Parties like DLP, FF or Freedom Party preference the Liberals ahead of Labor but may preference an independent before the major parties.
Compared to Werribee, Point Cook is a more affluent seat given it is Coastal. Altona Meadows is working class and should see some reversal of anti-lockdown swings like we saw in the Gellibrand booths.
@ Votante, i dont think Freedom Party will exist at the next state election i have not seen them since Warradnyte by-election.