Sydenham – Victoria 2026

@Nimalan, I think the potential hypothetical ONP Vote would have a very similar dynamic to the Voice Referendum given areas with a large amount of second and third generation Southern/Eastern Europeans had amongst the highest No Vote for Voice in Greater Melbourne even more so than their Anglo Counterparts. There are some factors that might explain the trend.

1) They can easily combine Ancestral Homeland Conservatism with Australian Conservativism given they are Christian and European which bodes well with Conservative and Religious Anglos. The reason why that it is much harder for non-White CALD to the same is that being in a different race and religion (in most cases) makes it harder to combine Ancestral Homeland Conservatism with Australian Conservativism as even if even they have some common values like LGBT Rights, there are larger number of opposing values that would significantly differentiates between them.

2) Second and Third generation Southern/Eastern Europeans also have a higher proportion becoming Tradies and Self-Employed while conversely less likely to pursue University Education.

3) ONP and mainstream Nationalist will no longer see them a threat because of 1) so in return Southern/Eastern Europeans no longer see them as a threat.
4) Southern/Eastern Europeans came under the White Australia Policy and an immigration policy was more on integration especially during the post war era.

@ Marh
I agree with your points above. Also many politicians in the Ancestoral homeland like Victor Orban, Georgia Meloni and the Law and Justice Party in Poland are adminered by the Right wing across the Anglosphere while Conservative Muslim regimes are hated by the West. I think there maybe small number of mixed Non Europeans who maybe Right wing but they are too small to get a sample size
For examples
a. Anglo-Indians
b. Anglo-Burmeese
c. Sri Lankan Burghers
d. Indo people (mixed Dutch)
e. Eurasians from HK and Singapore
4. Kristang people from Malaysia

These people are culturally Westernsided, Christian and have European sounding name many also migrated to Australia in the post War Era as there homelands decolonised. I think Middle Eastern Christians like Maronites and Copts maybe the next to show this trend.
I think Religion is a factor while Greek Cypriots like Steve Christou/Drew Pavlou can embrace nationalism i doubt it a Turkish Cypriot gets the same previleges. A Croatian can vote ONP but a Bosniak like Ed Husic cannot.

@Nimalan, I think the only non-white CALD that ONP can even appeal might be people like the Liberal Member of Warrandyte Nicole Werner even if she is a child of Malaysian Chinese immigrants given she is part of the Conservative Pentecostal Megachurch, married to a White Man and her parents came during 1980s so she can be seen as white-passing conservative (if race wasn’t taken into account) which is considered by many in the One Nation base as the only acceptable non-white Australian. Regarding Mixed-race, I think they are just more like Anglo in having the diverse range in point of views and issues.

We need to note latest second generation full blooded Asian Australians who are westernised actually adopted this in a more Western Liberal way rather than Western Conservative way.

@ Marh
I agree some one Like Nicole Werner who maybe seen as more assimilated especially given her religious background. I also agree that Mixed race people maybe more diverse in the views however, some have the benefit if they choose to identify with the Anglo majority and de-emphasis the non-European component.
I honestly wonder sometimes if they will be some full blooded Asian Australians who are second generation who do sympathise with One Nation/Anglo Right wing. For example, lets imagine a millenial who grew up in a Conservative Anglo area like the Sutherland Shire his parents may have not been assimilated and ran a local takeway/bakery/Milk Bar etc but that person grew up among Anglo Australians and felt they accepted him even if he/She was one of the few Non Europeans around. That person may have been very sporty, had a lot of friends in School and was well liked. The business that his parents ran may have been popular with the locals. A lot of the children that person grew up became Tradies and they remain close to this day As the person made it into their 20s they were invited to a lot of Australia Day BBQs. That person maybe sympthetic to what the One Nation demograohic says because they trust them. Often in such areas some people who of CALD background but we seen to be making an effort to fit are highly respected . One Nation is a party of Nostalgia and today may argue things were better in the Mid 2000s. If there a few Asian Australians like this it shows that Soft Power may have seduced them to appreciated Anglo Australian culture.

Very interesting as I was reading my comments and others for Sydenham 2022 page and thought One Nation could cause Labor a lot of pain here. There is a chance that Labor loses this simply by the preferences of One Nation and few other seats in western Melbourne. There could be a scenario where Labor holds onto the clay wall seats and sand belt seats but is defeated in its own backyard.

Disaffected Labor voters (in western Melbourne) might vote for a minor party as a voicing of frustration, similar to in 2022, rather than voting Liberal. There will be a field of minor parties even on the right. Other than One Nation, there’s FF, DLP, Freedom etc.

I think the West Party can gain ground here. At least, Paul Hopper, the founder, specifies infrastructure needs and campaigns on them. A lot of minor parties are “grievance” parties and have a generic, one size fits all policy that doesn’t specify areas, especially infrastructure, needing improvement.

Either way, the threat to Labor is that not all their ex-voters who swing away will send preferences back.

There is another podcast that i was listening. Kos Samaras mentioned that one of Labor’s problems in the West is that they have gold-plated marginal seats especially the Sandbelt but seen as negelecting some heartland seats. However, Kos Samaras mentioned that voters in such seats often Laugh when mentioning the Liberal party as an Alternatives like ONP. I agree with Votante that the West Party under Paul Hopper is actually a good alternative for many voters epecially as it is not really ideological. I dont think Freedom Party will do as well this time.

One issue is that average voter age is actually lower here than in the Sandbelt and Claybelt. There is a high concentration of the 18-24 age still living at home demographic as much of the housing in places like Taylors Hill date from the mid 2000s. There is also a higher concentration of South Asians and even Muslims than in the sandbelt/Claybelt and Kos Samaras mentioned many of them are increasingly pushed to the left parties even if they feel taken for granted.