Sydenham – Victoria 2026

If the same swing against Labor was repeated here again in 2026 Labor would narrowly lose this seat.

This is a Dark horse for a Liberal win. There is some anger over Western Highway/Melton line which while outside the electorate is critical. However, Metro tunnel and now Sunbury line is level crossing free will help mitigate this. Also Labor will probably devote resouces to sandbag this seat which they did not in 2022 which should mitigate the swing as well.

Hi @Ben Raue. The incumbent MP should be Natalie Hutchins since 2014, and the margin should be ALP 8.8%.

The Memeber for Sydenham and Allan Government minister Natalie Hutchins has announced she will not contest the 2026 state election. It’s still very diffcult for the Liberal Party to win a red wall seat like Sydenham even without a sitting Labor MP’s personal vote. However, if the West Party runs a candidate who is well-known in the community and campaigns hard, it may win the seat from Labor. https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-premier-160

Natalie Hutchins will not be recontesting. Notable that so far Labor retirements are coming from seats the Libs have some sort of shot at winning.

Labor doing some sandbagging will be enough for them to retain barring a shock Lib landslide that no one saw coming but it takes resources from other seats that they need to be defending.

I had this as a Dark Horse for a Liberal gain. I am not sure how much of a personal vote Natalie especially since this is a seat, Labor never has to campaign on. Annoucing retirement early gives Labor chance to select a talented and engergetic MP who is willing to run a marginal seat style campaign. The challenge for Labor compared to 2010 is that they have to devote resources to Red Wall seats such as Melton, Sydenham, Werribee, Niddrie that they did not have to in the past. Labor is used to run a marginal seat campaign in Yan Yean though.

@Nimalan I anticipate that given how strong the Eastern suburbs have firmed up for Labor they probably don’t need to do much campaigning along the Pakenham/Cranbourne and Frankston line seats given that they’ve been the beneficiaries of the majority of Labor’s Big Build. They could essentially just leave them be and focus on the Glen Waverley/Alamein/Belgrave/Lilydale line seats and sandbag the west to prevent any ground.

So instead of sandbagging the east, they can treat the east as if it was the old west and focus on keeping the red wall.

@ Tommo9
I think you are correct they will not need to campaign much in the Sandbelt compared to 2010. Also the Narre Warrens should be fine. Eltham, Macedon, Monbulk and Bellarine which were in play in 2010 should also be fine for Labor.
To win a historical fourth terms keep to focus on following seats and win as many as possible
1. Box Hill
2. Ashwood
3. Sunbury
4. Niddrie
5. Sydenham
6. Sunbury
7. Glen Waverley
8. Yan Yean
9. Melton
Only thing is Eureka, Ripon and Bendigo East maybe in play all of which Labor won in 2010

I agree with Nimalan that an early retirement announcement gives Labor more time to find an engaging and talented candidate and to start campaigning.

A possible risk is an independent candidate who runs on a ‘taken for granted’ platform and scoops up preferences from left, right and centre. A strong, year-long Labor campaign would help minimise an independent’s chances of even nominating.

The Metro Tunnel will open in December. This will connect Watergardens station in Sydenham with new stations in the CBD and the Cranbourne and Pakenham lines. This could be a game changer and will no doubt feature in Labor’s campaign.

@Nimalan Box Hill should be a shoe in given the large Chinese Australian population and Paul Hamer is very popular in that community. I don’t see an issue with Ashwood or Glen Waverley either for the same reason. They’re not areas which are struggling or hit hard by anything.

Niddrie looks like it’s in play on paper but its margin is deceptively low. With Ben Carroll being Deputy Premier Labor will do literally anything to sandbag his seat, ditto with Bendigo East (Labor will not give it up without a fight).

Melton is likely to be won by an independent before the Liberals have a shot, Sunbury could be easy pickings but the Liberals haven’t really promised anything for that area to try and win their votes. Yan Yean is vulnerable and could go either way. Ripon I think is definitely a goner given the composition of the electorate. Eureka might be OK given that it’s mostly based in Ballarat which is a Labor stronghold.

@ Tommo9
I fairly confident Labor will retain Box Hill. Glen Waverly and Ashwood have lower density so are better for Libs but Labor can still retain. The reason why i said Niddrie is that i think delay to Airport Rail and focus on SRL may backfire there. Also less Muslims etc compared to other parts of the NW which are firmly anti-Liberal. The Delay to Airport rail will hurt Labor in parts on Sunbury.

In Eureka, i am not concerned about the Ballarat portion it is the part around Bacchus Marsh which is more like Melton and has the same issues.
Yan Yean i agree is a toss up
Ripon, highly localised and does not follow state trend.
Sydenham-Metro Tunnel/Level crossing removals help Labor but ii think part that is concern is areas around Caroline Springs where people feel more like the Melton Highway corridor.
Labor will not give up Bendigo East easily.

@Nimalan you’d assume they’ll fight tooth and nail to keep Bendigo East, it’s Jacinta Allan’s seat. It would be embarrassing for them to lose the Premier’s seat.

@ CJ
100% agree, in the Federal election the Nationals did quite well but i dont think Labor saw it coming so they did not attempt to sandbag it. However, for Bendigo East they have 18 month warning period so i assume they will fight tooth and nail and be on altert.

@Votante: “A strong, year-long Labor campaign would help minimise an independent’s chances of even nominating”. The West Party has claimed it is going to run a candidate in every seat in the Western Metropolitan Region (including Sydenham) and Melton. There’s nothing to stop the West Party from nominating in any seat no matter how low their chances are of winning a Lower House seat.

I’d say marginal labor retain here unless the libs can find a smoking gun

I agree with John there will be a swing here but Labor can sandbag it

Going to be a few western metro seats where the major parties probably both poll in the late 20s/early 30s and the margins become quite tight due to INDs/Hopper/minor parties (left and right this time) and preferences being thrown about. Currently the math not quite adding up for the Liberals in anything other than Melton and I wouldn’t be locking that in either tbh

I’d say there best chances are Melton eureka and Sunbury. Sydenham and Niddrie might be close but sandbagging efforts would probably pay-off. There. 2030 with a 4th term labor govt would look better especially after redistribution Sydenham would be altered due to being in that growth corridor and that might be their best chmce. I reckon the libs would have not won the.general election win Werribee even if they managed to sneak over the line at the by election. Federally labor went backwards everywhere west of the yarra. With the exception of Gellibrand despite a very poor liberal campaign. So you have to wonder how bad it would have been if they actually did well. Footwear is vulnerable to the greens who managed to get a good swing against labor despite lib preferences flowing to labor and and the party losing 3 of its 4 seats.

@ John
With respect to Sydenham the next redistribution will likely help Labor here as areas East of the Railway line like Taylors Lakes will be removed and put into Niddrie. That will make Niddrie better for Libs though. Taylors Lakes is older and wealthier with large houses while the newer areas have small blocks and a more diverse population.
Federally, Apart from Scullin and Maribyryong all seats NW of Yarra had a swing to Labor (notionally) or a status quo result. Even Calwell/Fraser had a notional swing to Labor when compared to Liberal.

I’m talking Melton Lalor Corio Corangamite hawke

If the Liberals can keep their campaign together I could see this seat falling along with neighbouring electorate if they target it with crime which would cut through in area like this.

@Ben Raue,
For the sections of Geography and History you’ve used the information from Narre Warren South and the Incumbent MP information at the top says Gary Mass.

Thanks, fixed now.

If liberals win here they’re probly in govt

I agree @John
However, there is a chance that Labor will keep Box Hill and the 4 Sandbelt seats so maybe hung parliament with Greens is posible even if Libs win Sydenham. Labor has to focus resources to sandbag this.

Still i think the libs will fall short here. Labor have over 2 dozen other seats that are on smaller margins, if libs are winning this seat they’re more likely then not in government.

@ John
Agree although i think the swings will be uneven.For example much less swing in the Narre Warrens compared to here.
Also even if Libs get a 8.5% statewide swing i think they can hold Box Hill, Greenvale and Bentleigh so Libs have to prepare to win seats higher up the shelf.

*Labor can hold Box Hill, Greenvale and Bentleigh.

Yes. But if they are winning Sydenham they probably are in govt . I can se the 17 seats but they will need nothing short of a landslide win and will probly have decapitated labors leadership in order to do so.

I agree with Nimalan,
I can see a situation where Labor holds some traditional swing seats or Liberal leaning seats as they’ve put a lot of effort into the sand belt and the clay wall seats. Crime isn’t as a big thing through that part of town whereby a seat like this as well as neighbouring seats I expect that particular issue to cut through. There at least seems to be perception that the current state government has neglected western and to a lesser extent northern Melbourne which will could come into play for 2026. I think the 2026 state election will be a lot like the 2022 election where it will be patchy and not a universal swing one way or the other.