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If the same swing against Labor was repeated here again in 2026 Labor would narrowly lose this seat.
This is a Dark horse for a Liberal win. There is some anger over Western Highway/Melton line which while outside the electorate is critical. However, Metro tunnel and now Sunbury line is level crossing free will help mitigate this. Also Labor will probably devote resouces to sandbag this seat which they did not in 2022 which should mitigate the swing as well.