Sydenham – Victoria 2026

If the same swing against Labor was repeated here again in 2026 Labor would narrowly lose this seat.

This is a Dark horse for a Liberal win. There is some anger over Western Highway/Melton line which while outside the electorate is critical. However, Metro tunnel and now Sunbury line is level crossing free will help mitigate this. Also Labor will probably devote resouces to sandbag this seat which they did not in 2022 which should mitigate the swing as well.

Hi @Ben Raue. The incumbent MP should be Natalie Hutchins since 2014, and the margin should be ALP 8.8%.

The Memeber for Sydenham and Allan Government minister Natalie Hutchins has announced she will not contest the 2026 state election. It’s still very diffcult for the Liberal Party to win a red wall seat like Sydenham even without a sitting Labor MP’s personal vote. However, if the West Party runs a candidate who is well-known in the community and campaigns hard, it may win the seat from Labor. https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-premier-160

Natalie Hutchins will not be recontesting. Notable that so far Labor retirements are coming from seats the Libs have some sort of shot at winning.

Labor doing some sandbagging will be enough for them to retain barring a shock Lib landslide that no one saw coming but it takes resources from other seats that they need to be defending.

I had this as a Dark Horse for a Liberal gain. I am not sure how much of a personal vote Natalie especially since this is a seat, Labor never has to campaign on. Annoucing retirement early gives Labor chance to select a talented and engergetic MP who is willing to run a marginal seat style campaign. The challenge for Labor compared to 2010 is that they have to devote resources to Red Wall seats such as Melton, Sydenham, Werribee, Niddrie that they did not have to in the past. Labor is used to run a marginal seat campaign in Yan Yean though.

@Nimalan I anticipate that given how strong the Eastern suburbs have firmed up for Labor they probably don’t need to do much campaigning along the Pakenham/Cranbourne and Frankston line seats given that they’ve been the beneficiaries of the majority of Labor’s Big Build. They could essentially just leave them be and focus on the Glen Waverley/Alamein/Belgrave/Lilydale line seats and sandbag the west to prevent any ground.

So instead of sandbagging the east, they can treat the east as if it was the old west and focus on keeping the red wall.

@ Tommo9
I think you are correct they will not need to campaign much in the Sandbelt compared to 2010. Also the Narre Warrens should be fine. Eltham, Macedon, Monbulk and Bellarine which were in play in 2010 should also be fine for Labor.
To win a historical fourth terms keep to focus on following seats and win as many as possible
1. Box Hill
2. Ashwood
3. Sunbury
4. Niddrie
5. Sydenham
6. Sunbury
7. Glen Waverley
8. Yan Yean
9. Melton
Only thing is Eureka, Ripon and Bendigo East maybe in play all of which Labor won in 2010

I agree with Nimalan that an early retirement announcement gives Labor more time to find an engaging and talented candidate and to start campaigning.

A possible risk is an independent candidate who runs on a ‘taken for granted’ platform and scoops up preferences from left, right and centre. A strong, year-long Labor campaign would help minimise an independent’s chances of even nominating.

The Metro Tunnel will open in December. This will connect Watergardens station in Sydenham with new stations in the CBD and the Cranbourne and Pakenham lines. This could be a game changer and will no doubt feature in Labor’s campaign.

@Nimalan Box Hill should be a shoe in given the large Chinese Australian population and Paul Hamer is very popular in that community. I don’t see an issue with Ashwood or Glen Waverley either for the same reason. They’re not areas which are struggling or hit hard by anything.

Niddrie looks like it’s in play on paper but its margin is deceptively low. With Ben Carroll being Deputy Premier Labor will do literally anything to sandbag his seat, ditto with Bendigo East (Labor will not give it up without a fight).

Melton is likely to be won by an independent before the Liberals have a shot, Sunbury could be easy pickings but the Liberals haven’t really promised anything for that area to try and win their votes. Yan Yean is vulnerable and could go either way. Ripon I think is definitely a goner given the composition of the electorate. Eureka might be OK given that it’s mostly based in Ballarat which is a Labor stronghold.

@ Tommo9
I fairly confident Labor will retain Box Hill. Glen Waverly and Ashwood have lower density so are better for Libs but Labor can still retain. The reason why i said Niddrie is that i think delay to Airport Rail and focus on SRL may backfire there. Also less Muslims etc compared to other parts of the NW which are firmly anti-Liberal. The Delay to Airport rail will hurt Labor in parts on Sunbury.

In Eureka, i am not concerned about the Ballarat portion it is the part around Bacchus Marsh which is more like Melton and has the same issues.
Yan Yean i agree is a toss up
Ripon, highly localised and does not follow state trend.
Sydenham-Metro Tunnel/Level crossing removals help Labor but ii think part that is concern is areas around Caroline Springs where people feel more like the Melton Highway corridor.
Labor will not give up Bendigo East easily.

@Nimalan you’d assume they’ll fight tooth and nail to keep Bendigo East, it’s Jacinta Allan’s seat. It would be embarrassing for them to lose the Premier’s seat.

@ CJ
100% agree, in the Federal election the Nationals did quite well but i dont think Labor saw it coming so they did not attempt to sandbag it. However, for Bendigo East they have 18 month warning period so i assume they will fight tooth and nail and be on altert.

@Votante: “A strong, year-long Labor campaign would help minimise an independent’s chances of even nominating”. The West Party has claimed it is going to run a candidate in every seat in the Western Metropolitan Region (including Sydenham) and Melton. There’s nothing to stop the West Party from nominating in any seat no matter how low their chances are of winning a Lower House seat.

I’d say marginal labor retain here unless the libs can find a smoking gun

I agree with John there will be a swing here but Labor can sandbag it

Going to be a few western metro seats where the major parties probably both poll in the late 20s/early 30s and the margins become quite tight due to INDs/Hopper/minor parties (left and right this time) and preferences being thrown about. Currently the math not quite adding up for the Liberals in anything other than Melton and I wouldn’t be locking that in either tbh

I’d say there best chances are Melton eureka and Sunbury. Sydenham and Niddrie might be close but sandbagging efforts would probably pay-off. There. 2030 with a 4th term labor govt would look better especially after redistribution Sydenham would be altered due to being in that growth corridor and that might be their best chmce. I reckon the libs would have not won the.general election win Werribee even if they managed to sneak over the line at the by election. Federally labor went backwards everywhere west of the yarra. With the exception of Gellibrand despite a very poor liberal campaign. So you have to wonder how bad it would have been if they actually did well. Footwear is vulnerable to the greens who managed to get a good swing against labor despite lib preferences flowing to labor and and the party losing 3 of its 4 seats.

@ John
With respect to Sydenham the next redistribution will likely help Labor here as areas East of the Railway line like Taylors Lakes will be removed and put into Niddrie. That will make Niddrie better for Libs though. Taylors Lakes is older and wealthier with large houses while the newer areas have small blocks and a more diverse population.
Federally, Apart from Scullin and Maribyryong all seats NW of Yarra had a swing to Labor (notionally) or a status quo result. Even Calwell/Fraser had a notional swing to Labor when compared to Liberal.

I’m talking Melton Lalor Corio Corangamite hawke

If the Liberals can keep their campaign together I could see this seat falling along with neighbouring electorate if they target it with crime which would cut through in area like this.

@Ben Raue,
For the sections of Geography and History you’ve used the information from Narre Warren South and the Incumbent MP information at the top says Gary Mass.

Thanks, fixed now.

If liberals win here they’re probly in govt

I agree @John
However, there is a chance that Labor will keep Box Hill and the 4 Sandbelt seats so maybe hung parliament with Greens is posible even if Libs win Sydenham. Labor has to focus resources to sandbag this.

Still i think the libs will fall short here. Labor have over 2 dozen other seats that are on smaller margins, if libs are winning this seat they’re more likely then not in government.

@ John
Agree although i think the swings will be uneven.For example much less swing in the Narre Warrens compared to here.
Also even if Libs get a 8.5% statewide swing i think they can hold Box Hill, Greenvale and Bentleigh so Libs have to prepare to win seats higher up the shelf.

*Labor can hold Box Hill, Greenvale and Bentleigh.

Yes. But if they are winning Sydenham they probably are in govt . I can se the 17 seats but they will need nothing short of a landslide win and will probly have decapitated labors leadership in order to do so.

I agree with Nimalan,
I can see a situation where Labor holds some traditional swing seats or Liberal leaning seats as they’ve put a lot of effort into the sand belt and the clay wall seats. Crime isn’t as a big thing through that part of town whereby a seat like this as well as neighbouring seats I expect that particular issue to cut through. There at least seems to be perception that the current state government has neglected western and to a lesser extent northern Melbourne which will could come into play for 2026. I think the 2026 state election will be a lot like the 2022 election where it will be patchy and not a universal swing one way or the other.

Metro tunnel opened and I am on the first train. Jacinta Allan is in neighbouring Sunbury today Labor will hope this can help sandbag this sest

@Nimalan you’re very lucky. Hopefully it’s worth the hype and is the boost that the Victorian ALP sorely needs if they want to win next year.

Sydenham needs to have a good ALP candidate if they want to keep the seat post-Natalie Hutchins.

Labor have bigger problems then that. Most voters won’t be bought. I dont think labor is going to be able to buy its way out of this one. Jacinta Allen is toxic.

Honestly this election shouldn’t even be close, the Coalition should be winning in a landslide. But it will be close, namely because of the backbench chaos both federally and in Victoria.

@ Tommo9
Yes it is Amazing and the defining project of the current government and the biggest expansion of Melbourne PT since City Loop I actually saw Josh Bull MP for Sunbury who is probably happy it opened in time.Labor needs to sandbag seats like Sydnenham and Sunbury to be re elected

@Agree Nether Portal,
This really should be an easy win and really shows how effective the Victorian Labor party machine are and how ineffective the Victorian Liberal party are. If the Liberals are to form government in their own right they need to be polling 55/45 but the polls are a dead heat, time will tell who can turn it in their favour.

The Libs had the chance to make a dent into Labor’s huge majority in 2022 to make it easier for them to win government in 2026, instead they went on a UAP/Freedom Party style anti-lockdown campaign which created a pendulum that’s makes it even harder for them to form government. They went backwards in the seats they should have won and gained huge swings in seats that they would never win. Now they’d need a uniform swing of at least 8% to win a majority.

Any news on preselections here?

Love that the opening of a long-promised project is considered to be ‘vote buying’. I mean, don’t we want parties and governments to deliver their promises and in this instance they did. It’ll help those who live along these lines like Sydenham, Sunbury, Cranbourne, St Albans etc.

Judging by the amount of people and their reactions on the first day of the metro tunnel, it seems more like people are latching onto it and enjoying their commute and there’s so many of them. Most of the trains were packed to the brim. Does anyone think that the government can buy all their votes? No but if there’s benefits with these investments then people will flock to it regardless of who’s constructed it.

Tommo9 the purpose of vote buying is you give them stuff after they vote for you. People can have the metro tunnel and get rid of labor now

@John Isn’t that what all governments do? By the same token we can also say OK now that Crisafulli’s given you the Olympic stadium and Adult Time Adult Crime, you can get rid of the LNP at the next election.

It doesn’t make any sense at all. This was something that was promised 10 years ago and they’re just delivering what they promised. Do you prefer them to lie to you like the usual breed of politicians. Oh so Labor’s done a good thing people should get rid of them because the Liberals need to get a turn?

If that’s the attitude of you and the wider Liberal party then they don’t deserve to win government.

Jacinta Allen is deeply unpopular and you think something that’s already built is gonna save them? People dont care what’s already built they want to know what they’re gonna do now. The bloody ANC in south Africa is still trading on Nelson Mandelas grave what have they done for the black people of south Africa in the last 30 years? Whens the Melbourne airport rail getting built ? Sometime next century?

A 9% 2PP swing to the Liberals in any seat may seem out of the ordinary. However, following the 2022 election results and 2025 Werribee by-election, I guess anything could happen.

An unknown factor is whether the anti-establishment or anti-Labor vote is already baked into the post-2022 margin (following the pandemic) in classic red wall seats where most of the swings happened. There may be a recovery vote or there may still be some more Labor votes to be lost.

Metro Tunnel should secure this seat for Labor even with an anti-Labor swing on crime and cost of living. There’s already an anti-lockdown swing in 2022 in this seat.

Seems a pretty baked in assumption in these (and other) parts that infrastructure is still going to be a big issue in 2026, not sure it’s actually a great sell once it’s done as it’s becoming clear that the future pipeline is looking grim and all available finance is going to be shunted into the SRL East which has limited utility for a lot of these kinds of seats.

Apart from more basic service delivery, crime and taxes being likely to dominate the agenda more I also just don’t see how projects such as metro tunnel actually translate to votes in 2026 when voters know the big build is unlikely to continue to benefit them much in the future, whereas in 2018 and 2022 you could argue people were voting for both delivered projects and what was promised later which seemed more credible based on more successful delivery of previous projects.

Not to say this seat is under heavy threat I just suspect the connection between metro tunnel and votes on the ground in this cycle is a bit more esoteric than it may have been in other cycles.

@Maxim Agreed, it’s different to the next QLD election as the Olympics wouldn’t yet be delivered by October 2028

Barring serious Blunder the lnp will get another term. Campbell newman was up in the polls in September 2014 and then he collapsed. I think the federal liberals hurt them Moreton anything. If newman had of gone to the polls in spetemeber 2014 he would of been returned. And remember labor didnt win resoundingly they only scrapped into minority

Today the Big Switch has happened and the Sunbury line will be the biggest beneficiary.I expect a significant swing against Labor here so this seat needs to be sandbagged. IMHO Libs have better prospects here than the Narre Warrens or Cranbourne.