Footscray – Victoria 2026

I wonder if it is possible for the Greens to win Footscray and gain a SE/West Metro LegCo seat AND losing Melbourne/Richmond and failing in Northcote/Prahran…

I still think the Greens need Liberal preferences here they will get Victorian Soclialists but that may not be enough

Footscray is probably the Greens best chance for a gain given their support base is trending away from highly educated affluent inner-city professionals to more CALD lower socioeconomic communities and renters

Nimalan the greens made significant inroads In Fraser without liberal preferences. If liberals preference them it would be a lock. Greens could win this

In Fraser it was the Liberal vote that crashed not Greens

Labor slightly increased its vote

The Libs not preferencing Greens at federal level are perfectly understandable. Without the foreign affairs element, the Libs could justify preferencing the Greens at state level especially as it preferencing Labor would just buttressing up a Labor government that is past its use by date.

I think the Greens are a great shot at winning this regardless of the Liberals’ preference decision.

At the federal election there were numerous booths overlapping this seat where the combined Greens + Victorian Socialists vote was between 55-60%, and that was in an election where Labor did extremely well (no doubt better than they will do at the state election).

If I were the Greens I’d run the same candidate they ran in Fraser.

@Leon, I also think that the Greens will probably fail in Northcote, lose Richmond to Labor, and that Melbourne could be a dark horse for Labor to pick up as well. I think the Greens are clear favourites in Prahran though because I can’t see Labor overtaking them in the 3CP in 2026 if they couldn’t at the landslides of 2018 & 2022 and it’s really just a race between those two (despite the byelection result).

Lib preferences would all but guarantee it for the Greens without them they’re still in with a shot. In my personal opinion the libs should preference the greens with Labor incumbents and preference Labor with Green incumbents. Gets rid of experienced mps.

The Greens result in 2022 was probably inflated in part due to the pandemic leading to an anti-Labor swing as well as the Liberals putting Labor last, even behind the Greens. The likely reversal in Liberal preferencing will help Labor withstand a boost in the Greens vote.

Footscray may seem like a target Green seat because of the ‘suburbanisation’ of the Greens vote – away from inner-city, white-collar professionals and more to renters and those of lower socio-economic backgrounds.

The Greens’ federal election result in Fraser was perhaps bolstered by having an ethnic Vietnamese candidate. The Greens got pretty big swings in Footscray and St Albans. The Victorian Socialists even came second on primary votes at booths in Footscray.

@Trent I’m sure Huong will run for Fraser again, I’m not sure where in Fraser shes from but she did amazingly well in the western part of Fraser outside of the state seat of Footscray, where the swings to the Greens were much smaller.

Footscray is the Greens best chance if the Liberals dont preference them, and this is probably the only gain (other than Prahran) that the Greens have a shot at for the upcoming state election. It’s a much more working class seat and its very diverse, and the Greens have been making inroads with multicultural communities (though the swing in Fraser was largely thanks to Huong Truong who must be one of the best Greens candidates in ages)

Additionally, i think there is a lot of tension with Labor here due to the unfortunate shooting of a man by the police here a few months back, which I believe has increased the distrust people have in Labor. Additionally, the Socialists run really strong here (though they have kind of stagnated in Footscray) and that presence from a party to the left of the Greens can only help the Greens in winning this seat without Liberal preferences.

Totally agree Am Now!

I actually think it’s the surge of Victorian Socialists more than anything else that will probably help the Greens out here.

Regardless of what the Liberals do with their preferences – even if they still put the Greens above Labor – I can’t see LIB preferences flowing as strongly to the Greens as they did in 2022, since not only the Liberals themselves but groups like Advance have had such a focus on attacking the Greens as extremists over the past 2 years.

For that reason, I agree that I don’t think the Greens can pick up Pascoe Vale, Preston or even Northcote on its slim margin; while Richmond is clearly at risk (and Melbourne to a lesser extent).

Footscray though is a different kettle of fish, I think it’s very possible that the Liberals finish 4th in this seat, and VS preferences will be more decisive than Liberal preferences.

@ Trent,
I am really interested if St Albans becomes a ALP V GRN seat that will be interesting as it is actually the second poorest seat in Victoria and the highest % of people who dont speak English at home.

I think the Greens having Huong Truong in Footscray, rather than St Albans, would be a greater threat to Labor. This depends on where she lives though. Footscray has a high Victorian Socialists vote. This would help the Greens through preferences.

With ongoing gentrification, the Liberal vote is trending downwards. It is partly why the Liberals fell to fourth place on primary votes at some booths in Footscray in Fraser at the federal election. Also, Dutton wasn’t popular amongst inner-city residents, white collar professionals and culturally diverse communities.