ALP 4.2% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Katie Hall, since 2018.
Geography
Western Melbourne. Footscray covers most of the City of Maribyrnong, including the suburbs of Footscray, Kingsville, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Seddon, Yarraville and West Footscray.
History
Footscray has existed in its current incarnation since 1927, and in that time it has always been held by the ALP. It had previously existed from 1877 to 1904.
Footscray was first won by George Prendergast in 1927. He had been one of the first Labor members of the Victorian parliament when he won the seat of North Melbourne in 1894. He held it until 1897 and again from 1900 to 1926. Prendergast had served as the first leader of the Victorian ALP and as Premier for six months in 1924. He died in office in 1937.
The ALP’s John Mullens won Footscray at the 1937 electon. He held the seat until 1945. He later went on to serve as federal member for Gellibrand from 1949 to 1955, when he left the ALP as part of the split that created the Democratic Labor Party.
In 1945, John Holland (also of the ALP) transferred from the seat of Flemington, which he had held since 1925. He served as Member for Footscray until 1955, when he returned to the seat of Flemington. He died six months after the 1955 election.
Footscray was won in 1955 by Roy Schintler, who moved three years later to the seat of Yarraville, holding it until his retirement in 1967.
Alfred Shepherd moved to the seat of Footscray at the 1958 election. He had held a number of other seats since 1945, but died only months after the 1958 election.
The 1958 by-election was won by William Divers, who held the seat until 1970. Footscray was held from 1970 to 1992 by Robert Fordham, who served as deputy leader of the ALP from 1977 to 1982.
Footscray was won in 1992 by the ALP’s Bruce Mildenhall, who held the seat until his retirement in 2006. He was succeeded in 2006 by Marsha Thomson, and Thomson was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.
Thomson retired in 2018, and was succeeded by Labor candidate Katie Hall. Hall was re-elected in 2022.
- Jasmine Duff (Victorian Socialists)
- Katie Hall (Labor)
- Jess Marsh (Independent)
- Minh Quan Nguyen (West Party)
- Elena Pereyra (Greens)
Assessment
Labor is vulnerable to the Greens here, particularly if Liberal preferences continue to favour the Greens.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Katie Hall | Labor | 17,387 | 43.1 | -11.8 |
| Elena Pereyra | Greens | 9,045 | 22.4 | +2.2 |
| Emete Joesika | Liberal | 7,214 | 17.9 | +0.8 |
| Jorge Jorquera | Victorian Socialists | 3,769 | 9.3 | +9.3 |
| Alan Williams | Democratic Labour | 1,098 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Shohre Mansouri Jajaee | Animal Justice | 989 | 2.5 | -3.5 |
| Russell Muir | Family First | 838 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Informal | 1,654 | 3.9 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Katie Hall | Labor | 21,880 | 54.2 | -13.9 |
| Elena Pereyra | Greens | 18,460 | 45.8 | +13.9 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Katie Hall | Labor | 30,523 | 75.7 | -3.0 |
| Emete Joesika | Liberal | 9,817 | 24.3 | +3.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the south-west (52.4%) and the north (54.9%). The Greens polled 52.2% in the south-east.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.1% in the south-east to 21.3% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB prim | ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 12.1 | 47.8 | 5,293 | 13.1 |
| South-West | 13.5 | 52.4 | 4,336 | 10.7 |
| North | 21.3 | 54.9 | 3,008 | 7.4 |
| Pre-poll | 19.2 | 56.0 | 21,043 | 52.1 |
| Other votes | 19.9 | 55.1 | 6,711 | 16.6 |
Election results in Footscray at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Greens) and primary votes for Labor, the Greens, the Liberal Party and the Victorian Socialists.
I wonder if it is possible for the Greens to win Footscray and gain a SE/West Metro LegCo seat AND losing Melbourne/Richmond and failing in Northcote/Prahran…
I still think the Greens need Liberal preferences here they will get Victorian Soclialists but that may not be enough
Footscray is probably the Greens best chance for a gain given their support base is trending away from highly educated affluent inner-city professionals to more CALD lower socioeconomic communities and renters
Nimalan the greens made significant inroads In Fraser without liberal preferences. If liberals preference them it would be a lock. Greens could win this
In Fraser it was the Liberal vote that crashed not Greens
Labor slightly increased its vote
The Libs not preferencing Greens at federal level are perfectly understandable. Without the foreign affairs element, the Libs could justify preferencing the Greens at state level especially as it preferencing Labor would just buttressing up a Labor government that is past its use by date.
I think the Greens are a great shot at winning this regardless of the Liberals’ preference decision.
At the federal election there were numerous booths overlapping this seat where the combined Greens + Victorian Socialists vote was between 55-60%, and that was in an election where Labor did extremely well (no doubt better than they will do at the state election).
If I were the Greens I’d run the same candidate they ran in Fraser.
@Leon, I also think that the Greens will probably fail in Northcote, lose Richmond to Labor, and that Melbourne could be a dark horse for Labor to pick up as well. I think the Greens are clear favourites in Prahran though because I can’t see Labor overtaking them in the 3CP in 2026 if they couldn’t at the landslides of 2018 & 2022 and it’s really just a race between those two (despite the byelection result).
Lib preferences would all but guarantee it for the Greens without them they’re still in with a shot. In my personal opinion the libs should preference the greens with Labor incumbents and preference Labor with Green incumbents. Gets rid of experienced mps.
The Greens result in 2022 was probably inflated in part due to the pandemic leading to an anti-Labor swing as well as the Liberals putting Labor last, even behind the Greens. The likely reversal in Liberal preferencing will help Labor withstand a boost in the Greens vote.
Footscray may seem like a target Green seat because of the ‘suburbanisation’ of the Greens vote – away from inner-city, white-collar professionals and more to renters and those of lower socio-economic backgrounds.
The Greens’ federal election result in Fraser was perhaps bolstered by having an ethnic Vietnamese candidate. The Greens got pretty big swings in Footscray and St Albans. The Victorian Socialists even came second on primary votes at booths in Footscray.
@Trent I’m sure Huong will run for Fraser again, I’m not sure where in Fraser shes from but she did amazingly well in the western part of Fraser outside of the state seat of Footscray, where the swings to the Greens were much smaller.
Footscray is the Greens best chance if the Liberals dont preference them, and this is probably the only gain (other than Prahran) that the Greens have a shot at for the upcoming state election. It’s a much more working class seat and its very diverse, and the Greens have been making inroads with multicultural communities (though the swing in Fraser was largely thanks to Huong Truong who must be one of the best Greens candidates in ages)
Additionally, i think there is a lot of tension with Labor here due to the unfortunate shooting of a man by the police here a few months back, which I believe has increased the distrust people have in Labor. Additionally, the Socialists run really strong here (though they have kind of stagnated in Footscray) and that presence from a party to the left of the Greens can only help the Greens in winning this seat without Liberal preferences.
Totally agree Am Now!
I actually think it’s the surge of Victorian Socialists more than anything else that will probably help the Greens out here.
Regardless of what the Liberals do with their preferences – even if they still put the Greens above Labor – I can’t see LIB preferences flowing as strongly to the Greens as they did in 2022, since not only the Liberals themselves but groups like Advance have had such a focus on attacking the Greens as extremists over the past 2 years.
For that reason, I agree that I don’t think the Greens can pick up Pascoe Vale, Preston or even Northcote on its slim margin; while Richmond is clearly at risk (and Melbourne to a lesser extent).
Footscray though is a different kettle of fish, I think it’s very possible that the Liberals finish 4th in this seat, and VS preferences will be more decisive than Liberal preferences.
@ Trent,
I am really interested if St Albans becomes a ALP V GRN seat that will be interesting as it is actually the second poorest seat in Victoria and the highest % of people who dont speak English at home.
I think the Greens having Huong Truong in Footscray, rather than St Albans, would be a greater threat to Labor. This depends on where she lives though. Footscray has a high Victorian Socialists vote. This would help the Greens through preferences.
With ongoing gentrification, the Liberal vote is trending downwards. It is partly why the Liberals fell to fourth place on primary votes at some booths in Footscray in Fraser at the federal election. Also, Dutton wasn’t popular amongst inner-city residents, white collar professionals and culturally diverse communities.
Talk of an inner west teal-style community independent targeting this seat, could make it an interesting 3-horse race
I dont think a Teal will be popular here there. This seat has a stronger left-wing history and working class heritage. No people dont like any shade of blue which includes Teal. It is vey much a Green Left seat. Also as this seat gentrifies it is becoming more Anglo and less CALD so someone like Dai Le who is centrist will not be a liked.
How have to remember that the district of Footscray contains most of Yarraville, Seddon, Kingsville and West Footscray, all of which contain many electors that would be quite open to voting Tealish Independents. Enough to make it past the Greens? Not sure, but maybe enough to get past the Liberals.
They reckon there’s been a bunch of ‘east to west’ migration and that it’s quite recent, there is definitely potential for a teal to overtake the Liberals, then go ahead of the greens on preferences, can imagine some Labor voters might be tempted to switch
If anyone else is to win this seat apart from Labor it will be the Greens, I doubt that the teal will even make into the top 3 in primary vote.
I could see a Teal type doing OK in Williamstown but not Footscray. The ‘East to West’ flow would seem – from family members and their friends – to be people who can longer afford Brunswick or Thornbury. They are taking their Green or VS votes with them not a Teal vote.
I agree with redistributed, gentrification in the inner North has not lead to a Tealish demographic. I think in the seat of Albert Park a teal type could appeal but not really Footscary. Williamstown which is coastal more suburban will tend to attract familes who still want to send children to private schools etc. Likewise, a Teal type could do ok in parts of Essendon where there are private schools etc but not in Coburg etc.
Westgate tunnel could work against Labor here due to air quality and particularly heavy vehicle traffic increasing on local roads to avoid tolls – air quality concerns too which could all be exploited by local INDs or in this case probably the Greens
Westgate Tunnel will remove Trucks of Francis Street which has some beenfits. The Greens may benefit from anti-Road sentiment
The upcoming heavy vehicle bans on the local roads of Francis St and Sommerville Rd in Yarraville and Buckley & Moore Streets in Footscray will mean more residents are exposed to the benefits of the removal of trucks than those that will be exposed to the downsides of extra trucks on Williamstown and Millers Roads.
The overall air quality should improve getting the trucks out of suburban streets (with less stop/start at intersections) although it might get worse around the 2 exhaust stacks depending on how well the engineering design works.
Regarding the AFR article which leaked Labor’s ‘at risk’ seats I was curious about how Northcote and Preston made the list in terms of a GRN challenge but neither this seat nor Pascoe Vale did. Interestingly the model was not all that bullish on the Greens with the ‘high scenario’ being 5 seats (an improvement of only 1) and the ‘low scenario’ had them wiped off the map
I can understand Northcote being at risk but I agree with Maxim with Footscray would also be at risk. More so than Preston where the Green performance last time was boosted by flows from Gaetano Greco or Pascoe Vale which to my mind still holds areas where Labor could do well. Unless Labor think in Pascoe Vale they think the Greens will eat into their vote at the Coburg end and One Nation at the Pascoe Vale end, and they might up third with ON getting Lib preferences.
Victorian Socialists did a door knock in this seat on the weekend and say they knocked on 13,000 doors. Definitely looks like they’ll get a decent swing, and this could be decisive for preferences.
I still think this will be a Labor vs Greens contest. With Victorian Socialists and One Nation in the mix, there could be 5 parties with primary votes of >10%.
I think 13,000 doors is their goal for the whole campaign. Not what they did in one day. But they will hurt the Greens here. Labor might hope there’d be some preference leakage but from what I’ve observed scrutineering Vic Socialists to Greens is about the most disciplined preference flow there is in Labor v Greens contests (more than 90%).
This will definitely be ALP vs Greens final two. The Greens have a good chance here as the demographics are moving in their direction and the ALP vote will most likely fall. The Libs and ON votes will be very low – 25% combined at best. The big question will be where the Libs and ON preferences go as they will be in the box seat to decide the winner. I suspect however, that whatever happens with HTV cards, the Lib and ON voters will not necessarily follow it. This will be a seat to watch in November.
Yeah the right wing vote is really quite weak here, the Federal booths from 2025 are barely 20% between the Libs and ONP. If Wilson is indeed winning back some of the white collar professional vote that might help them but there’s quite a different political culture in Yarraville/Seddon.
This cycle could see quite a close 3CP
GRN: 37
ALP: 33
LIB: 30
Or something along those lines on a good night for the right but thereafter it probably drops off considerably with no campaign effort or local organisation.
There is some Liberal vote in the northern most part of the seat which is more White collar professional type around Maribyornong especially around Highpoint/Edgewater estate
@Nimalan, I think the areas north of Ballarat Road tend to be Middle Class and CALD Families more akin to the Eastern Middle Ring Suburbs like Vermont/Forest Hill.
@ Marh
Maribyornong i think is more middle class since it borders the river and is a quiter suburb that adjoins rich areas like Moonee Ponds and Essendon. I think Maidstone was working class back in the 1990s i actually knew some immigrants from my own community who bought houses there. Interesting this LGA seems to be more white than 20 years ago due to gentrification with fewer % people speaking another language at home or born overseas than in 2001
https://profile.id.com.au/maribyrnong/birthplace?WebID=130
@Nimalan, I think the decrease proportion of CALD is mainly from the Vietnamese Community moving on to Brimbank for larger and more affordable housing once they had improved social mobility and new housing estates released there during the late 1990’s to 2000s which then the houses flip to White Professionals who finds the appeal of the LGA being close to the city yet homes are quite affordable for its size and distance to the city.
@ Marh
I agree i would also add that genetrification meant areas such as this could not be affordable to newer waves of immigration such as Afghans if there was a major influx after 1979 of Afghans following Soviet invastion it possible that inner areas will be very Afghan as well as Indonchinese. I actually think the areas that have diversfied most in terms of increases in % CALD are not actually the Middle Ring Eastern suburbs but the Outer Growth areas such as Casey, Wyndham and Melton . The Middle Ring suburbs such as Manningham or Whitehorse have seen a growth of Mainland Chinese since 2001 but did not see refugees or South Asians etc as property values are too high for the majority of immigrants. I feel whenn 2026 census results are released Casey and Melton councils will be more CALD than Manningham and Holt will be more CALD than Menzies. Whitehorse already has a higher % of English only speakers than the Growth areas councils except Cardinia-which itself id undergoing a big transition.
Footscray has become popular with white-collar professionals, yuppies and hipsters mainly due to the proximity to the CBD and public transport links and cheaper housing, compared to south or east of the CBD. Many Vietnamese and European migrants moved away due to upward mobility or bigger housing elsewhere. This has coincided with the overall Labor vote.
The later gentrification meant a later increase in the third party vote. The Greens made it to the 2CP in 2022 for the first time ever. This was partly because of a redistribution which removed Sunshine and Sunshine West. The Greens were in the 2CP in Prahran, Richmond, Melbourne and Brunswick in the 2000s and 2010s.
It always bewilders me that on paper Footscray has seen much more white collar, professionals, hipsters, yuppies whatever move in. Because whenever I go there (albeit not very often) it feels a lot more like Sunshine or even Dandenong than Brunswick or Coburg. I guess even if those migrant communities have moved out Footscray is still a big commercial hub for them so they still shop there etc.
Yarraville and Seddon are definitely more gentrified though.
@ Adam
I suspect that is also because Footscary has the market so it is different to Yarraville/Seddon and Kingsville. I think the Western corridor here from Footscary to Sunshine are still gentrifying. The Inner West is still far less gentrified than Inner North for example Melbourne, Cooper and Wills had a higher vote for the Voice than Republic-adjusted to 2022 boundaries while Fraser was almost identical. Cooper and Wills also overtook Macnamara, Higgins and the Teal seats for Voice support while Fraser was below many Teal seats. I think Preston feels more diverse than statistics will suggest due to prescene of the market same with Victoria Street, Richmond.