ALP 9.6%
Incumbent MP
Natalie Suleyman, since 2014.
Geography
Western Melbourne. St Albans covers the suburbs of Cairnlea, Kealba, Keilor Downs, St Albans, Sunshine North and parts of Albion. St Albans lies entirely within the City of Brimbank.
History
St Albans was created at the 2014 election, and it largely replaced Derrimut. Both Derrimut and St Albans had previously existed as electorates in the Victorian Parliament.
Both Derrimut and St Albans were first created in 1985, and both were abolished in 1992.
Alex Andrianopoulos held St Albans during this period, and David Cunningham held Derrimut, both representing Labor.
In 1992, Andrianopoulos shifted to Mill Park, and Cunningham won Melton. Cunningham retired in 1999, and Andrianopoulos retired in 2002, after serving as Speaker from 1999 to 2002.
The new Derrimut was won in 2002 by Telmo Languiller, who had won the seat of Sunshine in 1999, but moved to Derrimut when Sunshine was abolished. He was re-elected in 2006 and 2010. Languiller switched to the seat of Tarneit in 2014. He served as Speaker from 2014 until 2017.
Labor’s Natalie Suleyman won St Albans in 2014, and was re-elected in 2018.
- Bao Huynh (Greens)
- Zaffer Mannan (New Democrats)
- Leanna Nguyen (Victorian Socialists)
- Natalie Suleyman (Labor)
- Luận Walker (West Party)
Assessment
Labor has a substantial margin, but if One Nation does very well this seat could come into play.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Natalie Suleyman | Labor | 15,094 | 42.3 | -18.4 |
| Maria Kerr | Liberal | 9,066 | 25.4 | +1.4 |
| Mark Hobart | Democratic Labour | 2,735 | 7.7 | +7.7 |
| Joel Bentley | Greens | 2,416 | 6.8 | -4.5 |
| Van Thanh Rudd | Victorian Socialists | 2,367 | 6.6 | +6.6 |
| Virginia Tachos | Independent | 1,152 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Russell Walton | Family First | 1,038 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Kim J. Cullen | Freedom Party | 874 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Jason Caracassis | Animal Justice | 782 | 2.2 | +1.2 |
| Zaffer Mannan | New Democrats | 192 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 3,638 | 9.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Natalie Suleyman | Labor | 21,274 | 59.6 | -12.4 |
| Maria Kerr | Liberal | 14,442 | 40.4 | +12.4 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.9% in the north to 59.1% in the centre.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 55.9 | 3,623 | 10.1 |
| Central | 59.1 | 2,946 | 8.2 |
| South | 57.5 | 1,666 | 4.6 |
| Pre-poll | 60.1 | 22,298 | 62.1 |
| Other votes | 59.8 | 5,369 | 15.0 |
Election results in St Albans at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Could this be a ALP V GRN seat on Federal results?
I doubt it as Keilor Downs booths would probably be won by the Liberal party before the Greens.
Keilor Downs has two booths and Kealba are the only ones in Gorton. I agree it is not as poor as the rest of the seat. However, Keilor Downs is not Keilor and is still a weak area for Libs and still working class but Greens outpolled Libs in pretty much all booths in Fraser and 75% of this seat is Fraser not Gorton i did not say Greens will win this seat or any booths but could they outpoll Libs in St Albans.
I think it’ll be an ALP vs LIB seat. The Greens at the federal election had the benefit of an unpopular Liberal leader and Huong Truong – a high-profile Greens candidate in Fraser. Huong Truong may have a better chance if she runs in Footscray than in St Albans.
The Greens might reach double digits in primary votes with DLP in free fall and the decline of the ‘freedom’ and minor right-wing party vote.
@ Votante
The Greens will make less effort here than Footscary and Huong Trong will run in Footscary than here. However, the reason i mention this as this is often seen as a “realignment seat” The right flank of the Libs wants to target this seat. Moira Deeming ran here in 2014. This seat had the second best swing to Libs in TPP terms in 2022 after Greenvale.
It will be good if someone can calculate this seat on federal figures whilst i clearly dont think Greens will pick it up i think we need to discuss if this in fact a right trending seat or was 2022 just articially lockdown while there was a big drop in Labor Primary vote it seems of the right parties it was the DLP that was the biggest beneficiay. However, i want to Question that further since on the ballot paper the DLP was higher than ALP and me thinks it created confusion as the DLP appears as Labour-DLP on the ballot paper. This seat has the second lowest % of English speakers. In 2013, When the LDP appeared before Liberals on ballot paper it created confusion in the NSW Senate race and i think inflated their senate vote-the Sutherland Shire had a huge DLP senate vote. I have always thought along with Greenvale this seat is likely to have a small swing to Labor on TPP. 87% of this electorate it in Fraser and only 13% in Gorton. https://pollbludger.net/vic2022/LA.htm?s=StAlbans
There is a pretty high proportion of catholics here and the ‘no religion’ selection for census was about half the state average here, which does pair with other outer metro seats where the DLP picked up significant support, Western metro being one of their target upper house areas (with Finn on the ticket) probably meant they put in more effort here as well to be totally fair.
How 2nd generation Vietnamese migrants vote this state election may well decide whether Labor sees little to no blowback or if it follows the current (polling) state trend and swings quite heavily
@Nimalan, the Liberal Candidate was on top of the ballot sheet last time and I think (besides the lockdown issue) the swing the TPP might also had been a fair amount Vietnamese Australians preferencing Liberals over Labor probably due to better campaigning from Trung Luu being elected as the Western Metropolitan MP (although he ran in the seat in 2018 as well)
@ Maxim
Your are correct about the Catholic percentage being higher than avergage 25.6% compared to 20% nationally and statewide. This can explain part of the DLP vote. This seat has a high percentage of Southern/Easterns Europeans such as Maltese and Croatians but i honestly feel this is the first generation and gradually declining younger generations have moved to more affluent areas such as Caroline Springs, Taylors Hill and Hillside and i feel it is those generations moving Rightwards. I do think younger generations here are non Europeans such as Vietnamese someone of whom maybe close to 3rd generation. The most Catholic seat is actually Niddrie but that is a weak area for DLP as it much more affluent.
@ Marh
I agree it is possible I wonder if Vietnamese Australians will trend Liberal they dont face as much racism these days compared to even 20 years ago. Having said that i dont think Anti-Communism is as much a factor in younger generations as today Vietnam is seen as country rising and many can freely visit their ancestoral homeland as they please so may not share the bitterness of the first generation
@Nimalan, a fair amount of Vietnamese Australians had voted Liberal before so I think in Vietnamese Heavy areas is where campaigning is essential and often dictates how Labor Primary Votes fare. I also feel this is more of an open race for all parties possibility except for One Nation as evident from the federal election in Fraser when there was a strong UAP vote in 2019 but then a strong Green Vote in 2025 (note both candidates were Vietnamese). I feel the recent attack in Sunshine that led to a Vietnamese Shop Owner to tragically lost his life as well as other crimes recently might continue to have Labor underperform this election (especially Primary Votes) in this seat and Laverton.
Labor will retain this but who comes second is anyone’s guess. There will be a drop in the combined major party vote.
The Liberal vote will drop because of One Nation and other players. Most disaffected, anti-Labor voters won’t be rushing to vote Liberal.
The West Party is a wildcard. It is a bit tricky to guesstimate their vote. Their candidate is a ex-Liberal and came from Vietnam originally.
There’s also the Vic Socialists and Greens as contenders for second place. It depends on who gets ahead of the other. Both can win the disaffected or anti-establishment vote.
I also think One Nation could come second if they get ahead of the Liberals by a huge margin. This is unlikely because preference flows from left wing parties will help favour the Liberals over One Nation.
@ Marh
Interestingly Vietnamese are among the most established of the Non European communities along with Lebanese and Turkish but the latter faces more prejudice due to religion. There is a much a higher percentage of Second and even starting to have third generations so maybe the Liberals will find it easier in St Albans than Greenvale.