ALP 10.9%
Incumbent MP
John Lister, since 2025.
Geography
Western Victoria. Werribee covers the suburbs of Werribee, Werribee South and Wyndham Vale, and areas to the west of Werribee. The entire electorate lies in Wyndham City.
History
Werribee previously existed as an electorate from 1976 to 2002.
Werribee was won in 1976 by Liberal candidate Neville Hudson, but he lost in 1979 to the ALP’s Ken Coghill.
Coghill held Werribee from 1979 to 1996, and served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1988 to 1992.
Labor’s Mary Gillett won Werribee in 1996, and was re-elected in 1999.
In 2002, Werribee was replaced by Tarneit, and Gillett was re-elected in the newly named seat.
Tarneit was won in 2006 by Labor candidate Tim Pallas, and he was re-elected in 2010.
Werribee was restored in 2014, and Pallas shifted to the restored seat, winning re-election comfortably. Pallas was re-elected in 2018 and 2022. Pallas served as Treasurer from Labor’s return to power in 2014 until his retirement at the end of 2024.
Labor candidate John Lister narrowly won the 2025 by-election.
- Reece Clark (Liberal)
- Paul Hopper (West Party)
- Tushar Kumar (Greens)
- John Lister (Labor)
- Sue Munro (Victorian Socialists)
- Prashant Tandon (New Democrats)
Assessment
The ALP barely held on here at the by-election, and could be vulnerable to either One Nation, the Liberal Party or an independent.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Pallas | Labor | 17,512 | 45.4 | -0.6 |
| Mia Shaw | Liberal | 9,779 | 25.3 | +8.7 |
| Jack Boddeke | Greens | 2,613 | 6.8 | +0.3 |
| Paul Hopper | Independent | 2,278 | 5.9 | +5.9 |
| Sue Munro | Victorian Socialists | 1,391 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
| Matthew Emerson | Family First | 964 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Kathryn Breakwell | Democratic Labour | 767 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| Josh Segrave | Animal Justice | 730 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Patricia Anne Wicks | Hinch’s Justice | 709 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Mark Strother | Freedom Party | 663 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Trevor Russell Collins | Transport Matters | 360 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Prashant Tandon | New Democrats | 319 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Karen Hogan | Health Australia | 260 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Patrizia Barcatta | Independent | 213 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Heni Cazlynn Kwan | Independent | 45 | 0.1 | +0.1 |
| Informal | 4,156 | 9.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Pallas | Labor | 23,517 | 60.9 | -2.4 |
| Mia Shaw | Liberal | 15,086 | 39.1 | +2.4 |
2025 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steve Murphy | Liberal | 12,207 | 29.0 | +3.7 |
| John Lister | Labor | 12,168 | 28.9 | -16.5 |
| Paul Hopper | Independent | 6,134 | 14.6 | +8.7 |
| A. Raheem Rifai | Greens | 3,190 | 7.6 | +0.8 |
| Sue Munro | Victorian Socialists | 3,008 | 7.1 | +3.5 |
| Xavier Menta | Legalise Cannabis | 2,316 | 5.5 | +5.5 |
| Matthew Emerson | Family First | 1,827 | 4.3 | +1.8 |
| Shohre Mansouri Jajaee | Animal Justice | 401 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Munish Joshi | Independent | 352 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Aidan McLindon | Independent | 270 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Aijaz Moinuddin | Independent | 164 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Kodei Mulcahy | Independent | 80 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| Informal | 3,003 | 6.7 |
2025 by-election two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| John Lister | Labor | 21,405 | 50.8 | -10.1 |
| Steve Murphy | Liberal | 20,712 | 49.2 | +10.1 |
Booths in Werribee have been divided into three parts. Most of the electorate lies in a small cluster around Werribee, Wyndham Vale and Hoppers Crossing. Polling places in this area have been divided into Werribee North and Werribee South. The small number of polling places outside this area have been grouped as “Outer”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas at the 2022 election, ranging from 61.3% in Werribee South to 64.7% in Werribee North.
Labor won in all three areas at the 2025 by-election, but much more narrowly, ranging from 52.5% in the outer areas to 56.4% in Werribee North. The Liberal Party won 51.4% on the pre-poll vote, which made up a majority of the total vote.
2022 booth breakdown
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Werribee South | 61.3 | 6,176 | 15.6 |
| Outer | 62.3 | 2,976 | 7.5 |
| Werribee North | 64.7 | 2,676 | 6.8 |
| Pre-poll | 58.9 | 22,726 | 57.6 |
| Other votes | 63.6 | 4,917 | 12.5 |
2025 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | Hopper | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Werribee South | 14.2 | 54.4 | 6,774 | 16.1 |
| Outer | 12.4 | 52.5 | 4,169 | 9.9 |
| Werribee North | 12.0 | 56.4 | 3,344 | 7.9 |
| Pre-poll | 15.7 | 48.6 | 21,822 | 51.8 |
| Other votes | 13.7 | 50.0 | 6,008 | 14.3 |
Election results in Werribee at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party
Election results at the 2025 Werribee by-election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes the Liberal Party, Labor and independent Paul Hopper.
The West Gate Tunnel opened today. The idea of a second river crossing came in the Victorian Transport Plan in 2008. In 2013 the Victorian Labor party came up with Project 10,000 which was the alternative to the East West Link Project. It contained the West Gate Distributor project, Metro Tunnel and 50 Level Crossing Removals all which have been delivered.
The Libs need to target some seats with 8-10% margins like Sydenham, Point Cook and Werribee if they miss out on a few seats below 8%.
I think a 1,2 attack from the libs and garra can win here
@ John
I am not sure what you are saying Paul Hopper is running for Werribee
https://thewestparty.org.au/local-representation/paul-hopper/
Right sorry I got them confused
What do you mean a 1,2 attack from the libs?
As in both the libs and the ind trying to unseat labor.
I reckon the 10% by-election swing away from Labor had a “send Labor a message” factor built into it. Normally by-election swings are not favourable to the sitting government and are also conservative-leaning. Also, Labor wasn’t in general election campaign mode. If it were a general election, the swing likely would’ve been under 10%.
If Labor wants to hold on, they would need a higher primary vote than the woeful by-election result. I’m still labelling this a tossup seat.
Werribee could be a similar case to Ipswich West in 2024. Massive swing against the incumbent which has the ‘anger’ element built in and could’ve swung to the other side easily (in Ipswich West, it did), but at the general turnout is higher and people may have already spread out their anger and they’ll cop a swing but still keep it with a marginal margin.
When the by-election was held here Labor was defiantly at a low point, it’s worth mentioning that the didn’t move that much which would suggest the public are still not happy with the Liberal party which a problem as if they want to have a remote chance of winning in Victoria then they’ll need to win seats out this side of town.
Labor’s vote is probably near the same level. There’s also the factor of the one running. While the libs may not win a 2pp vote a 2cp against the one would probably result in an ind win.
The Hopper factor here makes Werribee a little different – his campaign will be higher profile and his floor is pretty low off a standing start in the by election. He takes votes from disgruntled Labor voters and the preferences split pretty evenly, so either a moderate improvement for the Liberals or a big improvement for Hopper (and maybe some tactical Liberal voting) and Labor has lost the seat. That said I’d give them the edge currently
the thing that will help him the most is if the laundry list of candidates is reduced considerably and he gets a favourable position on the ballot. it might be in the libs interest here to run dead
taht said they probably wont given they were able to come close to winning the seat
theres also alot more new voters in this seat. more people turned out to vote in the by election numerically then they did in 2022 yet % was down 5%