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The West Gate Tunnel opened today. The idea of a second river crossing came in the Victorian Transport Plan in 2008. In 2013 the Victorian Labor party came up with Project 10,000 which was the alternative to the East West Link Project. It contained the West Gate Distributor project, Metro Tunnel and 50 Level Crossing Removals all which have been delivered.
The Libs need to target some seats with 8-10% margins like Sydenham, Point Cook and Werribee if they miss out on a few seats below 8%.
I think a 1,2 attack from the libs and garra can win here
@ John
I am not sure what you are saying Paul Hopper is running for Werribee
https://thewestparty.org.au/local-representation/paul-hopper/
Right sorry I got them confused
What do you mean a 1,2 attack from the libs?
As in both the libs and the ind trying to unseat labor.
I reckon the 10% by-election swing away from Labor had a “send Labor a message” factor built into it. Normally by-election swings are not favourable to the sitting government and are also conservative-leaning. Also, Labor wasn’t in general election campaign mode. If it were a general election, the swing likely would’ve been under 10%.
If Labor wants to hold on, they would need a higher primary vote than the woeful by-election result. I’m still labelling this a tossup seat.
Werribee could be a similar case to Ipswich West in 2024. Massive swing against the incumbent which has the ‘anger’ element built in and could’ve swung to the other side easily (in Ipswich West, it did), but at the general turnout is higher and people may have already spread out their anger and they’ll cop a swing but still keep it with a marginal margin.
When the by-election was held here Labor was defiantly at a low point, it’s worth mentioning that the didn’t move that much which would suggest the public are still not happy with the Liberal party which a problem as if they want to have a remote chance of winning in Victoria then they’ll need to win seats out this side of town.
Labor’s vote is probably near the same level. There’s also the factor of the one running. While the libs may not win a 2pp vote a 2cp against the one would probably result in an ind win.
The Hopper factor here makes Werribee a little different – his campaign will be higher profile and his floor is pretty low off a standing start in the by election. He takes votes from disgruntled Labor voters and the preferences split pretty evenly, so either a moderate improvement for the Liberals or a big improvement for Hopper (and maybe some tactical Liberal voting) and Labor has lost the seat. That said I’d give them the edge currently
the thing that will help him the most is if the laundry list of candidates is reduced considerably and he gets a favourable position on the ballot. it might be in the libs interest here to run dead
taht said they probably wont given they were able to come close to winning the seat
theres also alot more new voters in this seat. more people turned out to vote in the by election numerically then they did in 2022 yet % was down 5%