Werribee – Victoria 2026

Hopper did very well from essentially a standing start here, with better candidate selection the Liberals probably could have snagged this at the by-election. Hard to see anger at Labor letting up but in order to flip a seat like this the Liberals will need a convincing message of their own to start piling up primary vote, not seeing evidence of that yet whilst the factional wars bubble up underneath Battin

Maxim they could help flip it to an independent which is better then nothing. This seat and Lars are gonna get split and combined over little river I reckon

If Libs agree to run dead Paul Hopper could win this

The libs wont run dead because they are actually in the running.

Agree, Libs will target it again. However this should be a Labor hold.

Byelections are generally more favourable for oppositions than general elections, and also that byelection (like Prahran) was held at an absolute low point for Labor and high point for the Liberals in terms of Victorian polling.

The last couple of Victorian polls have been far more favourable for Labor than the Dec-Feb period, and while part of that is probably tied to a post-federal election honeymoon for Labor’s brand, I think 2025-26 in general will also be much better years for Labor than 2023-24 were. Not only did Victorian Labor seem to almost deliberately front-load every negative announcement and unpopular decision to the first two years of their term, but with federal Labor also “on the nose” for most of those years after the referendum and due to high inflation & rising interest rates, there would no doubt have been a compounding effect where – with Labor in government at both levels – they were who people naturally directed their anger at.

The economic situation is much better, federal Labor are popular, and at a state level 2025-26 will be more defined by popular pre-election announcements (a poll today shows the WFH policy has 64% support – including over 50% of Coalition voters – and only 17% opposed) and major projects like Metro Tunnel and West Gate Tunnel being completed and opened.

In no way am I suggesting that they will rebound to the highs of 2018-22, but I also don’t think they will sink back to the lows of Jan-Feb 2024 when the polling had primary votes of 22% ALP & 42% LIB.

So if the Libs couldn’t win a Werribee byelection in that climate, I can’t see them winning Werribee at a 2026 general election.

By elections swings are worse than general so even if Labor is defeated in 2026 I think they would hold Werribee. the 2010 Altona by election is an example of this while Labor was defeated at the general election the swing in Altona at a general election was lower. Ipswich west and Bass Hill are examples where defeated government actually regained seats lost at a by election

Trent, the ALP should hold Werribee, however the economy is weaker, not better, and the economic outlook is uncertain, with the government starting to make difficult budget decisions, as it faces booming deficits.

-WFH won’t make much difference unless the Liberals come out against it.
-The Westgate Tunnel is a positive, Metro Tunnell is irrelevant to Werribee.

Labor will probably hold it yes.but I won’t rule out an ind gain. If the independent can get over the liberal they should be within a shot. But as I stated earlier I think the redistribution could be favourable to the liberals. Given all the growth in Geelong a east of the werribee River the new seat of what I predict of the eastern parts of Lara and the western parts of werribee could be winnable at the next election.

Pencil
I think Metro Tunnel is benefit for Werribee but not to the extent of Sunbury, Sydenham or St Albans. the Werribee line will be connected to Sandringham line so there will be frequency increase. it also means someone who lives in Werribee who works as a nurse at Royal Children Hospital will have a shorter commute.

In regards to Ipswich West while Labor recovered it the seat is now marginal and I wouldn’t rule out a lnp regaining it. Also the member there retired to due health issues. So you lose the sophomore vote too. While the Labor candidate was the same candidate as a t the by election.

Yeah Pencil I wasn’t necessarily saying WFH, Metro Tunnel or West Gate Tunnel will be game-changers, but I’m saying they will certainly not be a further negative for Labor than 2023-24 were. They will at least be a net-positive compared to the events of 2023-24 where, for example, Metro Tunnel & WGT were nothing but construction inconveniences.

The economic outlook – not differentiating between state & federal here but I just mean in terms of the average household’s economic outlook (most people couldn’t care less about ‘debt & deficit’), is absolutely more positive in 2025 than it was in 2023-24.

Interest rates and inflation are both going down, and there have been numerous cost of living measures implemented by Labor (mostly federal but that does help the ‘brand’ at both levels). I don’t think you’ll find many households who think the cost-of-living situation is worse in 2025 than it was in 2023-24.

State debt? Has no material impact on most people’s lives, and most people don’t care too much about it.

@trent yea until the government raises taxes then it does.

And I think the more recent polling also points to evidence that Labor have rebounded since their early 2025 low point too.

All throughout the 2024 the VIC polls had the LIB primary gradually increasing from the mid 30s to high 30s up to a peak of 42% in January; and the ALP primary reducing from the low 30s, to 28% in late 2024, and all the way down to 22% in January, and the Liberals even winning the 2PP for the first time.

The two most recent polls had:
Newspoll: 53-47 2PP to ALP, off primaries of 35 ALP / 35 LIB
Redbridge – 51.5-48.5 to ALP, off primaries of 33 ALP / 38 LIB

In addition to that, the SRL has polled majority support (statewide too) in both of the polls which asked about it, and as mentioned the WFH policy has overwhelming support as well. Not that the Liberals have opposed it, but my point is that in terms of the overall narrative, the policies Labor are focusing on in 2025-26 are a net positive compared to a lot of defined 2023-24, and all the data points seem to be indicating a recovery from that low point.

Again, not saying they will recover to 2022 levels. But just saying those Werribee & Prahran byelections occurred at the absolute low point, which they have since recovered from, and there’s no real reason to think 2025-26 will be as bad or worse than 2023-24 were for them. All signs indicate the opposite.

Prospects for improvements on crime, taxation, energy prices and road conditions are bleak though, Allan might have some policy to sell and a better party brand to work with but she’s definitely not as good at selling achievements and downplaying problem issues as Andrews was.

Trent, the issue with the deficit, is more to do with how the government manages it, and the government is starting to cut back on spending, with the government saying it wants to return it’s public sector headcount back to pre-covid levels.

Inflation is down, but prices are now at higher levels, and unemployment has been creeping higher, and could be above 5% by November 26, currently it is 4.5% in Victoria.

But, thanks to the Liberals failure to deal with their internal issues, it is hard to see any Liberal gains in Melbourne’s Northern and Western suburbs.

That polling is pointing to a 2% to 4% swing, or similar to the 2% swing against last time. There is a bit of 1979 about this election, but which seat could be Allan’s St Kilda.

The crime one is interesting. Those increases in crime are that yes, 2023 & 2024 were up (significantly) on 2022, but 2022 had one of the lowest Victorian crime rates in 50 years. I think since the 1970s that only 1-2 years towards the end of the Bracks/Brumby era had a lower crime rate than 2022.

So while “12% increase in crime!” sounds extremely alarming, what that actually means is that crime is back to mid-2010s or early-2000s levels, but still much lower than it was in the 1970s, 80s & 90s.

The crime situation is very comparable to what it was around 2016 when the Coalition placed a huge focus on it leading up to the 2018 election and we know how that went. Statistics actually show that crime consistently decreases more than it increases under Labor governments (obviously individual years will still bounce around compared to the previous one) but during the Kennett and Baillieu/Napthine terms it increased every single year under the Liberals, so they have a much worse track record.

The year-on-year crime rates since the 90s until 2024 show that:
– In 20 years of Labor government (2000-10 & 2015-24, crime increased 5 years and decreased 15 years
– In 11 years of Liberal government (1993-99 & 2011-14), crime increased all 11 years, never decreased

I think that is more instructive of how a particular party’s policies actually steer the direction of crime rates, than looking at the rate for an individual year in isolation.

Of course, the average person unfortunately doesn’t know that though because the media all push the same alarmist narrative around it. So if there’s a perception of a crime wave, that is more of a political problem for Labor than the actual facts. However, I’m sceptical about how much impact it will have after such a focus on it in 2018 didn’t hurt them at all.

@Pencil I agree about what the swing is looking likely to be.

I’m predicting there will probably be a 3-4% swing to the Liberals which will net them a number of seats, but just not enough to form government (possibly not enough to force Labor into minority either), and a seat like Werribee which had a 10% margin in 2022 and a >1% margin at the byelection should land somewhere in between the two.

I wonder the if Federal Labor overperformed the polls also was because pollsters adjusted in using dissatisfaction of Victorian Labor Government assumed many would shift to the Federal Coalition alongside 2022 Labor voters who voted no to the Voice (the latter was mentioned in articles)?

I don’t think so. I think there’s a factor where polling cycles outside of an election campaign are very good at picking up on voter dissatisfaction, frustration, discontent etc. But come election cycle time, the focus shifts from past grievance to future vision, and a lot of that comes down to the quality of the campaigns and the narrative that each side are able to articulate.

I think a couple of very rough years in terms of cost of living hurt Labor’s polling, but when the actual campaign kicked off, the focus shifted. Labor are also a very well-oiled campaign machine compared to the Liberals who I think struggle to articulate a coherent vision or message.

That will probably be a factor in VIC 2026 as well. There is a lot of grievance that polling has picked up, but I don’t even think the most diehard Liberal supporter would believe the Victorian Liberals are better campaigners or political strategists than Victorian Labor.

@ Pencil
All your points are very valid. One point i would make that more educated/affluent voters think more long term economically about the debt and the potential for future tax increases while in a seat like Werribee people think about the here and now than whats best long term. I think Trent is correct that Labor delibrately waited until after the 2022 state election to start fiscal repair if they were geniune they could have started in 2022 once the pandemic ended so love or loathe Victorian Labor i think it is fair to say they are cunning. It is probably why they generally focused on Land Tax increases, Private School Payroll tax etc as it as they wanted most of the backlash to occur in areas they dont need to worry about, To address debt/deficeit there is two paths focus on cutting spending/increases Tax, The right wing prefers to focus on the former and the left-wing the latter. I think Victorian Labor already knew before the 2022 election they would need to implement fiscal repair which is why they wanted to sacrifice Hawthorn as they knew their economic decisions will cause anger so it was best to sacrifice that. This one of the problems for the Libs in winning a Red Wall seat like Greenvale/St Albans if they win government with ones of those seats but not the sandbelt any austerity/spending cuts they implement for the long term benefit of Victoria will cause a backlash there than in more affluent seats. It is why anger against Kennett’s cuts was most felt in Working Class and Regional Victoria but not Middle Class Eastern Melbourne as more affluent people would have felt there was a long term benefit. In the 1993 Federal election Labor won the TPP in Victoria but not a majority of seats as there was a big swing to Labor in North West Melbourne even though Kennett had only been in power for a few months while Labor did not recover in Eastern Melbounre. It is also why in 1999 Labor did not make inroads in Middle Class seats as many still remembered State Labor but Regional Voters cared about the Here and Now and blamed Kennett for budget cuts not Victorian Labor than drove him to do that in the first place.

Possibly a Liberal win, but they really muffed their chance by picking the wrong candidate for the by election – too old, too white, and again (refer Ringwood and Ashwood last night) not a local. If the Liberals had won, the member would have had a chance of digging in.

@Nimalan, I think even the 1992 State Election had the same trend where the reason why Kennett swung and won big was due to Middle-class voters and seats as they were the most affected by the early 1990s economic crisis while working class seats in Melbourne’s North and West swung less probably as they were the least affected with even two seats actually swung positively to Labor.

@ Marh
Totally agree so even if we look at 1992 two of the seats that had a swing to Labor were the poorest seats of Thomastown, Broadmeadows they were least outraged over State Bank Collapse/State Debt, which why i predict that the only seats that will swing to Labor in 2026 are the poorest/lockdown affected seats (Broadmeadows, St Albans, Greenvale and Thomastown).

Paul Hopper, independent candidate at the 2025 by-election and 2022 general election, has launched a new party – The West Party. The Age is reporting this.

The West Party has not yet been registered with the VEC.

Moira Deeming has isssued a statement supporting Jacinta Price which is weird as the Western Metro region is the most South Asian part of the Nation. The Liberals are tearing themselves apart over this comment with right-wing part of the party supporting Jacinta Price.

I would not be surprised if Jacinta Price and Moira Deeming end up jumping ship to One Nation ‘claiming’ they have been ‘pushed/bullied’ out of the Liberal Party. Encouraged of course by the Sky after dark crowd.

Jacinta won’t she has a guaranteed senate spot and won’t give that up. She could always jump back to the nats though