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Liberal hold, I don’t see Labor pealing this off especially after two back to back landslides.
Labor has not won a Southern Knox seat since they lost Wantirna (the preceding seat) in 1992. This area is now more established and wealthier than the 1980. However, Labor has a better chance to win this than Kew, Brighton, Sandringham or Morwell.
Rowville has been trending Labor after 2010. Rowville’s predecessors Scoresby and Wantirna used to be solidly Liberal. The last time Kim Wells had a margin <4% was as a result of the 2002 Labor landslide.
In 2002 much of this area was still housing estates and young families so the 2022 results was pretty good for Labor. Wantirna was held during the Cain/Kirner years by Labor so was not solid liberal at that time.
If the Liberal were in trouble here then something would have seriously gone wrong.
Kim Wells has got to go. The Libs need new talent in a seat like this.
Agree entirely with Dan M. He is 67, been in parliament since 1992, dead wood. Time to be given the tap on the shoulder.
Probably best to wait for a good year.
Kim Wells is calling it quits and won’t recontest the next election.
Libs have a great opportunity to pick good quality candidates with so many older members retiring. Benambra, Croydon, Malvern now Rowville. All should be women .