Bruce – Australia 2022

ALP 7.3%

Incumbent MP
Julian Hill, since 2016.

Geography
South-eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Bruce covers northern parts of the Greater Dandenong and Casey council areas, along with a small part of the Monash council area. Suburbs include Dandenong, Keysborough, Endeavour Hills, Hallam and Narre Warren.

Redistribution
Bruce shifted to the south-east, losing Noble Park and Springvale to Hotham, and gaining the remainder of Narre Warren North and Narre Warren from La Trobe and part of Narre Warren South from Holt. These changes knocked the Labor margin down from 14.2% to 7.3%.

History

The seat of Bruce has existed since the 1955 election. Prior to 1996 it was a relatively safe Liberal seat, but demographic and boundary changes have seen the seat become a marginal Labor seat.

The seat was first won in 1955 by Liberal candidate Billy Snedden. Snedden served as a Cabinet minister from 1964 to 1972, serving as Billy McMahon’s Treasurer from 1971 until the government’s defeat in 1972. Snedden was elected Leader of the Liberal Party, and served in the role for the first two years of the Whitlam government. He used the Coalition’s Senate majority to block the Whitlam government’s budget, triggering the 1974 election, which he lost.

Snedden lost the Liberal leadership in early 1975, and was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives in 1976 after the election of the Fraser government. He served in the role for the entirety of the Fraser government, and after the defeat of the government in 1983 he retired from Parliament.

The 1983 Bruce by-election was won by the Liberal Party’s Ken Aldred. Aldred had previously held the seat of Henty from 1975 to 1980, when he was defeated. Aldred held Bruce until 1990, when he moved to the seat of Deakin, and held it until 1996.

Bruce was held by the Liberal Party’s Julian Beale from 1990 to 1996, when he lost to the ALP’s Alan Griffin. Griffin held Bruce for the next twenty years.

Griffin served as a shadow minister from 1998 to the election of the Rudd government in 2007, when he was appointed Minister for Veterans’ Affairs. He left the ministry after the 2010 election. Griffin retired in 2016.

Labor’s Julian Hill won Bruce in 2016, and was re-elected in 2019.

Candidates

Assessment
The redistribution cut the Labor margin in this seat but it is still reasonably safe for Labor.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Julian Hill Labor 51,71355.6+1.448.1
John Macisaac Liberal 27,17029.2-1.135.7
Rhonda Garad Greens 6,8017.3+0.87.6
Mubahil AhmedUnited Australia Party3,9794.3+4.34.1
Tim BoyantonConservative National Party3,3773.6+3.62.4
Others2.2
Informal5,5215.6+0.3

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Julian Hill Labor 59,68964.2+0.157.3
John Macisaac Liberal 33,35135.8-0.142.7

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.

Labor polled a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.5% in the east to 66.2% in the west.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
East52.519,73820.4
Central62.814,07214.5
West66.212,42312.8
Pre-poll54.831,44932.5
Other votes56.419,15219.8

Election results in Bruce at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.

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4 COMMENTS

  1. Labor shouldn’t have any trouble in the short-term, but it will be interesting to see what happens in the future, if growth patterns continue and this seat keeps getting pushed further east.

  2. This seat is now unrecognisable from its pre-2019 boundaries. Only around one-quarter of electors on the present boundaries were part of Bruce then. A good thing – it didn’t make much sense to have a division running from Glen Waverley to Dandenong.

  3. I’m guessing this was mostly in Aston and Menzies when Sir Billy Sneeden held the seat? It was safe Liberal back then but I’m wondering which areas it contained back then.

  4. I believe Bruce used to cover most of the areas now covered by Chisholm: Burwood, Mt Waverley, Glen Waverley, and Vermont.

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