ALP 7.5%
Incumbent MP
Will Fowles (Independent), since 2022. Previously member for Burwood 2018-2022.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Ringwood takes in the suburbs of Heathmont, Mitcham, Ringwood, Ringwood East and parts of Blackburn, Blackburn North, Croydon, Donvale and Nunawading.
History
Ringwood was a new name for the seat of Mitcham when it was restored in 2014.
Ringwood previously existed from 1958 to 1992. It was held by the Liberal Party from 1958 to 1982, and by Labor for a decade before its abolition.
Mitcham existed from 1967 until 2014. It was a marginal electorate for most of that time, alternating between the Labor Party and Liberal Party.
Mitcham was first won in 1967 by the Liberal Party’s Dorothy Goble. She held the seat until her retirement in 1976.
Mitcham was won in 1976 by George Cox, also of the Liberal Party. He held the seat for two terms, but was defeated in 1982. He later went on to hold the seat of Nunawading from 1988 to 1996.
Cox was defeated in 1982 by John Harrowfield. He served as a minister in the Kirner government from 1991 to 1992, when he lost his seat, and the government lost power.
Harrowfield was defeated in 1992 by Roger Pescott. He had previously served as Member for Bennettswood since 1985.
Pescott was re-elected in 1996, but in 1997 he resigned from Parliament, triggering a by-election. The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s Tony Robinson with a 16% swing.
Robinson was re-elected narrowly in 1999 with a 0.5% margin. He increased that to a 7.8% margin in 2002, before it was reduced to a 2% margin in 2006. In 2010, Mitcham was won by Liberal candidate Dee Ryall, with a 4.7% swing. Ryall was re-elected as member for Ringwood in 2014.
Ryall was defeated in 2018 by Labor candidate Dustin Halse.
Halse retired in 2022. A redistribution led Labor MP Will Fowles to move from the abolished seat of Burwood to Ringwood.
Fowles faced allegations in 2023 which led to him stepping out of the parliamentary Labor Party, and he resigned from the ALP in 2024. He has continued to serve as an independent MP.
Candidates
Sitting independent MP Will Fowles is not running for re-election.
- Prue Cutts (Independent)
- Jack Gardner (Victorian Socialists)
- Rachel Halse (Labor)
- Nick McGowan (Liberal)
- Amy Mills (Greens)
Assessment
Labor will struggle to regain this seat in the absence of a sitting MP.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Will Fowles | Labor | 17,851 | 39.0 | -3.3 |
| Cynthia Watson | Liberal | 15,467 | 33.8 | -9.9 |
| Reuben Steen | Greens | 7,105 | 15.5 | +2.1 |
| Gary Ryan | Democratic Labour | 1,684 | 3.7 | +3.7 |
| Richard Griffith-Jones | Family First | 1,396 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Nick Rowe | Animal Justice | 1,212 | 2.6 | +2.2 |
| Robyn M. Siemer | Freedom Party | 1,038 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Informal | 1,676 | 3.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Will Fowles | Labor | 26,322 | 57.5 | +4.3 |
| Cynthia Watson | Liberal | 19,431 | 42.5 | -4.3 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: central, north-east, south-east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 59.7% in the north-east to 63.2% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 16.3% in the centre to 19.7% in the south-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 19.7 | 60.5 | 5,497 | 12.0 |
| West | 17.5 | 63.2 | 5,441 | 11.9 |
| Central | 16.3 | 60.5 | 3,642 | 7.9 |
| North-East | 18.7 | 59.7 | 2,165 | 4.7 |
| Pre-poll | 14.5 | 58.4 | 20,588 | 44.9 |
| Other votes | 12.9 | 52.4 | 8,484 | 18.5 |
Election results in Ringwood at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Ringwood is a middle-ring, middle to upper-middle class seat. I predict 80% of votes will go to the major parties or Greens or the Voices-backed independent. I expect a classic two party contest.
One Nation won’t do well. My hypothesis is that the presence of an active independent, even a teal one, would limit One Nation. It is because there is another option for disaffected and ‘sick of major parties’ voters to go for and this would help split the non-major party vote.
@Adam, I’m sure all seats and LC regions will get ONP candidates. I agree that many ONP voters are ‘voting for Pauline’.