Kew – Victoria 2026

If bad polls are the litmus test how ling can Susan Ley last?

@John: “The libs were on track to win under pesutto just as they were under O’Brien”; @Trent: “They were legitimately in a winning position under Pesutto though”: No poll under their leadership has ever shown the VIC Coalition to be on track to win. Note that the current pendulum is dire for the Coalition and the Coalition needs a 53% 2PP to win assuming uniform swings. No poll under the leadership of Pesutto was estimated to imply a Coalition 2PP of 53% or higher, although two Resolve polls in the early days of Battin’s leadership had an implied Coalition 2PP higher than 53%.

You don’t need a 2pp of 53% really you don’t even need 50% you just need to win 50% of the seats +1

The coalition could win 45 seats by 1 vote and lose the other 44 by 10000 votes.

If Jess Wilson plays her cards right in the coming year, she could help sandbag Liberal seats against teal independents or even prevent them from running. This also includes helping Pesutto retain Hawthorn. I thought that under Battin, Hawthorn was borderline depending on whether an independent was running. Wilson would need to formulate and win the economic argument to at least be competitive.

About Pesutto’s polling numbers, I didn’t think he was on track to win but I thought he was at least competitive. Labor’s 2PP polled worse than the Coalition’s for the first time in late 2024. Also note that Labor, right in the middle of the term had some wriggle room and was not in campaign mode.

I’d rate Wilson’s chances as fair and wouldn’t rule out her winning the lot. She’s gonna measure up pretty good against Jacinta Allen. Allen will probably have to spend more time in her own seat. Don’t be surprised if she runs for Bendigo West.

‘Tis the season for leadership spills. Now there is chatter that Kellie Sloane may try to roll Mark Speakman in NSW sooner rather than later. With Singh taking over for the Nats and Wilson taking over for Battin, it seems the centre-right is trying to get its house in order. Interestingly, the state parties are moving in different directions from the Federal party. I wonder now about Vince Tarzia.

I assume this effectively rules her out of contention for Kooyong in 2028.

The nats leader resigned due to family issues. Apparently his 19 yo daughter featured in a documentary on only fans

Tania will face a spill after the state election. If he retains his seat. It’s too late now for a spill.

Is it just me that has noticed a lot of more conservative state Coalition party leaders (Battin, Castley, Saunders?) being rolled by more moderate/centre-right MPs?

Is there a chance that the Coalition decision to scrap net zero may be involved in this?

@James – Highly doubtful, although it may be on the back of people’s minds. Most of the current spills are occurring due to management conflicts or family issues, rather than specific legislation. Net Zero would be somewhat less of a factor in state elections since Labor and the Libs are not that far apart on the issue at the state level.

The long-term effect of the Federal party scrapping Net Zero would be that any state MPs or local councillors who want to make the jump to Federal politics would move forward to the 2028 elections.

The spill was done upon reflection and with the aim of boosting the Liberals’ election odds. That’s what it seemed like after hearing from Jess Wilson herself yesterday.

Jess Wilson represents the voter demographic that Liberal Party branches across Australia desperately needs to win over: Millennial/Gen Z, tertiary-educated professional women. Her election as the Victorian Liberal Party leader heralds the start of a welcome and long overdue pivot from the almost singular focus on law and order under the leadership of Brad Battin to issues that matter more to young people such as housing affordability. However, her party has a mountain to climb in order to win. Not only does she have the unenviable task of sandbagging all seats the Coalition won in 2022 and winning 17 more seats for the Coalition, the demographic headwinds her party need to overcome to become Premier are enormous. Younger voters and renters, diverse communities in the outer suburbs as well as university-educated professionals in the inner suburbs all lean heavily left.

I agree with @Votante in that, with her moderate credentials, Wilson should do a good job in sandbagging Liberal heartland seats against Labor and potential teal challengers, including seats like Caulfield, Hawthorn, Malvern and Brighton. If she promotes John Pesutto to the frontbench the Liberal Party should have no problem retaining Hawthorn.

he Australian has a Victorian state Newspoll conducted hot on the heels (possibly a little too hot) of the Liberals’ leadership change on Tuesday, with 1030 respondents surveyed between Tuesday and Thursday. The poll credits the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, in line with recent results from other pollsters but a significant shift on the 53-47 Labor lead recorded at the last Victorian state Newspoll in June. The primary votes are Labor 28% (down seven), Coalition 36% (up one) and Greens 14% (up two). Jacinta Allan records diabolical personal ratings of 26% approval (down four) and 68% disapproval (up seven), while Jess Wilson debuts at 32% and 31%, and holds a 47-33 lead as preferred premier. The poll found respondents deeply concerned about housing (82% “worried”), law and order (81%), state debt (76%) and hospitals (69%). Law and order was rated most important of the four at 42%, with 23% opting for housing, 16% for state debt and 14% for hospitals.

https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/22/newspoll-51-49-to-coalition-in-victoria-3/

I’m personally sceptical of the polling as it seems a tad too early for Jess as leader.

still jacinta allen has probably got to be the most hated leader in all of australia at this point. most of the other would have a postive or neutral personal rating id say

Hearing from Jess Wilson, she took the job with the intent of winning. I don’t recall a negative word said about Brad Battin. Could the Coalition, with Jess Wilson as leader, actually gain more seats than a Brad Battin-led Coalition would have?

The Coalition beating Labor on the 2PP isn’t unexpected. According to polling this year, Coalition did get a 2PP of 52% and Labor got dismal primary votes. Labor improved towards the winter, likely because of the federal Coalition federal election’s and Federal Labor’s honeymoon period.

It’s the seat count that matters. The Coalition needs a net gain of 16 seats for a majority. There’s consensus here that Prahran is gone. The Coalition won’t gain any Greens seats so they’ll have to net gain 16 Labor seats.

Yes Jess wilson has much broader appeal than Brad battin. She will gain more seats than him. Just about everybody i know prefers her to Jacinta Allan and thinks highly of her – particularly professional women . This will definitely pay off.

@John According to psephologist Kevin Bonham, Allan’s netstat (net approval rating) of -42 is the third worst net approval ever recorded by a state premier. The only ones to record worse were John Cain Jr in June 1990 (ousted just two months later and his party was defeated in a landslide in October 1992) and Anna Bligh in December 2010 (quickly recovered during the ensuing flood crisis before collapsing once again and led Labor to its worst ever defeat at any state/territory/federal election in March 2012). Both only did so by a solitary point, so there’s a chance Jacinta might break that record in the ensuing months.

For federal comparisons, Tony Abbott’s worst net approval was -44 in February 2015 after he knighted Prince Philip (with that being that worst ever recorded by a Liberal PM) and Julia Gillard’s worst was -45 in September 2011 after introducing that carbon tax to Parliament. Allan is still some way off the worst ever in that regard, with that being Paul Keating recording -57 in August 1993 after ditching tax cuts which happened to be his signature election policy.

Wilson is a better electoral prospect than Battin, particularly in Eastern Melbourne, but the base was definitely happier with Battin (that could change) and their outer suburban prospects have taken a hit and I’m hearing rumours that candidates have withdrawn from pre-selection since the spill.

If candidates are withdrawing from preselections I’m assuming they’re Battin-ites.

Probably safer for the Liberals that they’re withdrawing. Otherwise they could end up with more Moira Deemings and Renee Heaths.

Disliking or disapproving Jacinta Allan is one thing but do Jess Wilson and the Coalition have appeal in swing seats?

I have read about broader appeal but the Coalition can’t win government if the swings are all in safe Labor seats or current Liberal seats.

@Maxim, I also think Wilson would be more competitive in Eastern Melbourne. The Libs lost a handful of seats in 2014 and 2018. They could be in play in 2026.

At the very least, Bass, Bayswater, Hastings, Pakenham, and Ripon are gone. The Coalition still needs 11 seats to gain.

If Lethlean runs in Bendigo East he may be able to win. Lisa Chesters is a fairly inoffensive, albeit ineffective, MP. Running against possibly the most hated person in Australian Politics at the moment? He’s certainly in with a shot.

So that leaves 10 seats to grab.

@ CJ
Ripon will be determined by Local factors it has a history of not swinging much.

True, but I maintain it’s a low hanging fruit. While it mightn’t be necessary for the Coalition to gain Ripon, it’ll build their numbers.

When are the rest of preselections? And is there any news on those. I do know that Ballarat councilor Samantha mcintosh is the frontrunner for Liberal preselection in Ripon.

I agree CJ so if they win Ripon there is a seat that they won in 2010 that they dont need to worry about like Prahran.

@CJ: I would argue Ripon is a must-win for the Coalition to win government. There are seats the Coalition won in 2010 that they could not or are very unlikely to win in 2026. Since the Coalition won just enough seats to form government in 2010, for the Coalition to win government in 2026 they need to win seats they did not win in 2010. Although the Liberal Party won Prahran in 2010, I don’t think the Liberal Party will ever win Prahran again in a general election because gentrification has pushed this seat to the left for three elections in a row. If the Liberal Party can’t win Prahran, the Coalition needs to win seats like Ripon to make up for it. I think among the seats the Coalition did not win in 2010, Ripon it’s the easiet seat for them to win becase it is located outside of Melbourne and the major regionals cities, where the swings against Labor will be the largest. Issues such as the Victorian Government’s Emergency Services and Volunteers Fund has already caused backlash among farmers in the electorate. If the Coalition can’t win Ripon, I don’t see how they can win enough seats to win government.

Joseph, gentrification hasn’t changed Prahran, the boundaries have. Prahran has moved in a south-west direction into St Kilda while losing Toorak.

Pencil is correct gentrification does not hurt Libs if an area becomes more affluent. greater density may have brought more renters and hurt Libs somewhat. gentrification was actually making Carrum and Albert Park more Liberal until 2018 after which Liberals moved towards Social instead of fiscal conservatism. In nsw at a state level gentrification has helped Liberals in Oately east hills and Drommoyne

Don’t think it’s been mentioned anywhere here that Sophie Torney, who made a serious independent challenge in Kew in 2022, has since served a term as mayor of Boroondara, which will have maintained her profile (to the extent that you get profile out of being a suburban mayor these days).

And as for CJ’s list above, I’m not sure I’d put Hastings on the write-off list (high-profile member, plus the 2022 results on the Mornington Peninsula had an element of lockdown backlash – the locals were peeved that they were included and the Bellarine wasn’t – which may reverse to some extent this time). Agree with the others.

Unless the libs major malfunction the election their winning hastings. If they arent winning hastings they probly losing seats.

The swing mightn’t necessarily be on in Hastings but the Liberals should gain it.

Think like Monaro in 2011, when Labor lost it to the Nats despite a small swing in comparison to the rest of the state.

In monaro is different though. It borders Canberra so you have a lot of left voting public sector workers and such to help keep labor in the running.

With the exception of the basket case that is SA. The libs actually have some hope of improving their seats.

Monaro has been a swing seat for ages, much like it’s federal half-namesake. The state seat has only missed voting with the state government twice since the 1960’s, and both times was when the Nationals held the seat in 1995 and 1999.

I agree Hastings is a Liberal leaning seat and even when Labor won it twice narrowly in 2002 and 2022 it was still a Liberal seat on the Cook PVI. I think swing in seats like Bass and Pakenham will only 3% but that is still enough to change hands. The only seats where i see a swing to Labor are very poor seats like St Albans, Broadmedows, Thomastown and parts of Greenvale where there will be some reversal of anti-lockdown vote especially among Muslims.