Kew – Victoria 2026

@ Trent maybe take out Greenvale and put Point Cook in the second tier list which i think is more double as it only requires a 12.8% over two elecitons rather than 22%.
Sunbury only had a 4.3% margin after the 2014 election which meant it was only 2.3% to the Left of the state. Sunbury replaces the old Tullamarine which was held during the Kennett year. Also in Sunbury especially around the airport. Libs maybe able to argue Melbourne Airport Rail link should have got higher priortity than SRL East since Airport rail has been talked about since 1960s this may mean they will may get votes that they otherwise will not.

I think now that Airport Rail is due to open before SRL East, a date has been locked in, and the Sunshine ‘superhub’ (which will greatly benefit Sunbury too, and makes Airport Rail seem ‘real’ now) is happening too, will probably help negate that argument about Airport Rail vs SRL East.

Sunbury is definitely winnable, it’s one the second list for me but I wouldn’t consider it a “long shot”, it’d be one of the first seats from that list I think the Libs would win.

You’re right, Greenvale was probably a bad choice for that second list, and Point Cook would be more appropriate because Greenvale is one of the few seats where Labor are probably likely to get a 2PP swing towards them (like you say due to VS & Greens surging at the expense of right-wing minors).

@ Trent
Yep the debate on Airport Rail/SRL East is one Labor needs to be prepared for. This is one of the reasons i have talked about Niddrie being a key seat. Airport Rail is due to Deliver the first ever Railway station in the electorate of Niddrie namely Keilor East. Libs will try and argue that Labor delayed Airport Rail and lost track of it due to SRL East.
If Major construction had already started on MARL then i would be much more confident about Labor retaining both Niddrie and Sunbury.

Has the funding hole for SRL East been filled? All well and good to dig but lots of funds needed to actually carry the project out and a decent portion would be needed from sources other than the state govt kitty at the moment it would seem unless I’ve missed a development.

My understanding was that the biggest hole in the funding was the federal part, where the state had budgeted for the federal government to commit $11.5b but they (until a month ago) had only committed $2.2b.

But a few weeks ago Albanese indicated that they would be contributing billions more to it. The exact amount probably won’t be known until the next federal budget is handed down. If so, it would be timed well about 6 months out from the VIC election (which is probably the strategy).

If Andrew Hastie is made leader it will drag Jess Wilson down for 2026.

Maybe, maybe not. It depends on how things transpire in 2026 at a state level. Most marginal Labor seats are on the suburban fringes e.g. Bass, and in regional areas e.g. Ripon. I don’t think Hastie will be too much of a drag in those areas.

Peter Dutton as federal leader didn’t drag down John Pesutto.

I think Hastie may drag down CALD vote esp Muslims so Cranbourne/Narre Warrrens becoming harder also anti-immigration sentiment may hurt Libs in Point Cook

Votante/Nimalan – whilst the recent Bondi incident and the Coalition’s pivot to a national security and anti-immigration argument will affect their ability to win over Muslim voters, I would say it won’t matter much for the other target seats with lower margins (Bass and Pakenham in the Southeast, Yan Yean and Sunbury in the outer North, and Melton in the west). Even Bentleigh with its high Jewish vote could be seen as a new target seat for the Victorian Liberals.

I agree Yon An
I will not matter in seats like Niddrie, Yan Yean ,Sunbury, Hastings, Bass and Pakenham.
The Eastern Suburbs and Sandbelt are better educated but have very few Muslims and i think many voters will just look the other way and be silent about anti-Muslim Rhetoric. Many centrist middle Australia voters just ignored Islamphobia during the Howard years as it does not really affect them.
It will be really Greenvale that will be impossible and Narre Warrrens unlikely and Crannbourne harder but not impossible.

@Nimalan, Yoh An.
I think Islamophobia (which may or may not be driven by politicians) has the potential to stigmatise and isolate non-Muslims as well. Many non-Muslims, including Jews, of Middle Eastern or North African or South Asian appearance are often confused for being a Muslim. The now-dead terrorist at Bondi Beach came from South India as a student in 1998.

Anti-immigration or nationalist rhetoric could isolate such groups.

@spacefish dubtful i dont see Hastie making a challenge prior to Easter/Anzac Day. Susan Ley is doing her best to drag the liberal vote down as it is. Hastie would be in what would be called a honeymoon period by the time of the vic election so he probably wouldnt do too much damage if any. most people are appalued by what happened on Sunday and want action. do you realy think the Bondi attackers cared ay more about any other ethnic group more then they did the jews. if they had of killed all the jews at the event do you think they would have just stopped?

@nimalan they probably arent winning Narre Warren, Cranbourne, Greenvale or any Dandenong based seats anyway.

fyi im in Broadmeadows today and i was going to wathc Rules of Engagement (movie about the middle east) but im not willing to risk my life over it.

Agree Nimalan, most of the swing type voters are more concerned about domestic issues (cost of living and infrastructure developments) and don’t really pay much attention to global/world events when it comes to international conflicts (Iraq/Afghanistan War during John Howard’s term as PM and Arab Spring uprising during the Gillard and Abbott years).

@ Votante
It will be interesting how Non-Muslim South Asian react i am one of them. In the UK for example the right wing have often said that Hindus and Sikhs were model minorities and tried to use that against Muslims. For example Tommy Robinson suported protests against the persecution of Hindus in Bangladesh. So sometimes people use divide and conquer stratigies. Among some South Asians like Hindu Nationalists they tend to support a hardline stance against Islamist Groups some have even attended Pro-Israel demonstrations. I think in India, Modi and his supporters will use the Bondi Terrorist attack to spread Anti-Muslim sentiment. I do agree than i am more vulnerable today with dark skin even though I am not Muslim myself.
@ John, i had Cranbourne as a Dark horse

@nimalan i havent included it in any of my scenarios for a liberal win.

@ John
Can you map out best case scenario for Liberal win

counting Prahran as a loss ive identified the following seats as the path to victory
Must Win
Bass
Pakenham
Hastings
Ripon (NAT)
Glen Waverley
Bayswater
Yan Yean
Melton
Ashwood
Sunbury
Eureka
That puts the coalition on 39 seats. From there they can win any of the following to make up the other 6.
Monbulk
Ringwood
Sydenham
Macedon
Bendigo East
Werribee
Mulgrave
Point Cook
South Barwon
Some Outliers that might be in the wildcard basket
Niddrie
Bellarine
Wendouree

chances are if they are winning Prahran and/or Cranbourne they are already in government and these are just bonuses.

What about Box Hill, Eltham, Carrum, Frankston etc, Mordiallic etc?

I dont see Mulgrave on the path it has never been won by Libs and only a small part (Wheelers Hill) is Liberal friendly but i agree with Bendigo East, Point Cook, South Barwon
I feel Niddrie will fall before Werribee despite it being represented by a Deputy Premier. Niddrie has got good demographics for Libs, Middle Class, Italian, Catholic not Muslim and delay to Airport Rail will cause anger here

they should absolute also be preferencing the Greens in Northcote, Preston, Pascoe Vale and Footscray. not because they want them to win but it forces Labor to have to defend these seats and use otherwse importnat resorces that would be used to defend marginal and winnable seats from the Libs. Along with the current Greens holdings.

maybe Albert Park and Broadmeadows and any other seats where the Greens are threatening to make the 2PP. they can always reverse it at the next election to remove the greens members.

@ John
I dont think Greens will make 2CP in Albert Park. Libs will increase their primary vote probably by 5-6% and greens will be stangant i think. Albert Park wil become a marginal ALP seat with Libs improving but cannot win it. If Jess Wilson wins and becomes popular she can win it in 2030.

Box Hill maybe.. Eltham probably not this cycle after the redistribution it may be more friendly. Carrum and Mordialloc are partially in Dandenong. so probably not maybe Frankston. in regards to Mulgrave they did manage to make it marginal at the by election so thats why ive included it. the redistribution wuold probably make it easier to hold as it would shift further north. Carrum and Moridalloc are proably gonna move further into Dandenong.

Mulgrave in its first incantation was liberal held. the only member it has had since its recreation has been Dan Andrews up til the by election and we know Dan has a knack for convincing people to vote agianst their own interests but hes gone now.

Albert Park would certainly be more frendlier if it were to lose that St Kilda tail south of Fitzroy st

yep but when Mulgrave was first created in the 1970s much of Springvale/Noble Park was not industralised and much less Multicultural also no local issues like in Melton etc hurting Labor

Well the premier’s husband hit a car and was just done for drink driving after.

That’ll do wonders for Labor

still the liberals managed to get a better notional result then Cook. the margin being 4.67%. i reckon the one thing holding up the labor vote was Dan Andrews. not necessarily his personal vote but his ability to spin the media. i mean he all but ran over a cyclist. talked his wife into taking the wrap and talking the cops out of any sort of investigation and then making it as though the cyclist was at fault. locked down the state in the worlds longest lockdown but somehow the Liberal party was still the problem in Victoria and managed to gain seats. then got his statue and got out of dodge. now that hes no longer premier noone wants him on their premises. you say his name in cnetral melbourne and you have to have a police escort. his legacy will hurt labor and jacinta allen is incompetent and is rivaling Vladimir Putins popularity.

@ Mark
Given the situation in the country such as Bondi that is much more pressing

@mark i dont think anyone is gonna care tbh. i certainly dont. people have accidents every day. half the voters have probably been done for DUI or fender benders

That’s a pretty reasonable scenario of seats for the most part, John. I’d agree with most.

I’d probably put Box Hill in that second list before Monbulk though, although I think Box Hill is the least likely of the 5 key eastern suburbs seats (Ashwood, Glen Waverley, Bayswater, Ringwood & Box Hill) for them to gain. Monbulk is a seat that I think won’t be in their first 17 gains, so if they win that they already have majority government, similar to your comments about Prahran & Cranbourne which I agree with.

For all 3 of those seats – Monbulk, Prahran & Cranbourne – I’d say the Liberals are more likely to win the election without those seats, than to win any of those seats without winning the election.

ive got Monbulk in there because they are more likely to hold it post redistribution. i can see it moving into the northern parts of Pakenham and Berwick which are more liberal friendly.

i think Box Hill would be part of a 2 election strategy if my redistribution panned out Box Hill would be more liberal friendly. especially if Paul Hamer chose to contest the more friendier seat ive labelled “Blackburn”

Ringwood stands out to me as a prime target too being empty with a controversial member and a more senior sitting Liberal MLC targeting it, with Wilson as leader I don’t see them forming government or really coming close without it

agreed. the redistribution should make it friendlier too.

I agree Maxim. If Labor had a sitting MP without controversy, that 7+ margin would make Ringwood one of the harder seats for the Libs to gain in that region. But the fact that it’s essentially an open contest now with the current member being a controversial ex-ALP independent probably wipes a few % off that margin already.

Yes I’d argue with Ringwood the ‘real margin’ is something in the region of 5% whilst in say Box Hill a margin that more appropriately accommodates Hamer’s strong personal following and the recent trends towards Labor would be more like 9%. If there was ever a circumstance to quite violently reverse that trend it would be when the incumbent government is well underwater and the leader disliked (remembering how Federal Labor nullified strong local Liberal incumbents/candidates on account of Dutton being leader). So well worth keeping an eye on both really should the swing be on