Kew – Victoria 2026

@Tommy9 I think that was probably the biggest thing about the 2022 election that was overlooked by many more so than the back to back landslide achieved by Dan Andrews – an exodus of effectively star talent/the “A-team” from the frontbench, and all at once, rather than gradually over time, and once Andrews himself left, it was significantly diminished.

Agreed with @Dan M though, the Coalition needs a better TPP margin, not just preferred premier, else they may as well not have changed leaders. As for the shadow ministry reveal, I think it’s quite significant (and arguably the right move) that Jess Wilson has kept shadow treasurer herself given her background.

If it were something more like 24-39 the preferred premier reading might be a little less significant but at this point nearly a majority of respondents are saying they would prefer a first term MP as premier a couple weeks after a leadership spill when Wilson should really have quite low name recognition.

I am a little bit dubious on the methods for calculating 2PP in recent Victorian state polling, I asked Demos AU and they said they used 2022 flows and I would assume most if not all firms who are reporting 2PP are doing the same. I also asked Kevin Bonham how he was calculating his 2PP estimates for Resolve polls and he said the same thing – citing ‘vote parking’ as part of his reason for doing so. However the make-up of the ‘others’ vote (which is now at or above 20 in some of these polls) has likely changed given the Federal surge of ON (the demos poll’s upper house result for Victoria confirms this) so if a blanket preference flow is being attributed to ‘others’ based on 2022 I think it’s likely favouring Labor.

Does anyone here know more about this? I would assume the polls themselves don’t include all potential ‘other’ parties and therefore the polls wouldn’t be able to apply 2022 preference flows from each minor party.