Greenvale – Victoria 2026

The Swing against labor was quite violent in the ttp but in the primary vote it mostly didn’t go to Liberals but instead to Family First.

@ SpaceFish
Family First did not run 2018 nor did any Christian Party but they did in 2014. In Yuroke (predeccor seat) in 2014, Australian Christians got 71.1% and Family First 5.2% if the ran in 2018 i dont know how much they would have got. The Assyrian/Chaldean community often vote for Christian Right parties. There was also a Muslim independent called Fatma who ran in 2022 and did well in Muslim parts of the seat but badly elsewhere. She had a HTV that put Labor last which inflated the swing against Labor in 2PP in a seat with low levels of education and English people would have followed the HTV religiously. I expect this one of the few seats that will swing to Labor. I expect Victorian Socialists/Greens to do well due to Palestine which has meant Muslims have largely forgotton about lockdowns. In the seat of Calwell there was a notional swing to Labor especially in Meadow Heights. It will be great to calculate this seat on Federal results.

@ Nether Portal
for Greenvale
Booths notional ALP TPP
1. Meadow Heights 77.55% 8.69% Swing to Labor
2. Meadow Heights Central 78.01% 10.22% Swing to Labor
3. Meadow Heights South (Bethel Primary School) 79.13% 7.13% swing to Labor
3. Roxburgh Homestead 73.45% TPP 5.35% Swing Labor
4. Roxburgh Park 75.45% 2.17% Swing to Labor
5. Roxburh Park North 68.34% 2% swing to Labor
6. Roxburgh Rise 73.01 6.06% swing to Labor
7. Greenvale 60.39% 8.35% swing to Labor
8. Greenvale North 63.07% 9.58% Swing to Labor
9. Greenvale South 51% 1.81% swing to Libs
10. Westmeadows 58.54% 2.27% Swing to Libs
11. Attwood 59.59% 0.6% swing to Libs

PPVC/EAV and Hospital includes all Calwell ones not just within Greenvale
1.Special Hospital Team 1 69.09% 7.35% swing to Labor
2. Special Hospital Team 2-65.79% 4.04 swing to Labor
3. Special Hospital Team 3 76.92% 15.29% swing to Labor
4. Brunswick Calwell PPVC 69.8% 6.42% swing to Labor
5. Broadmeadows Calwell PPVC 64.34 -3.08% swing to Libs
6. Epping Calwell PPVC 62.89% 1.54% Swing to Labor
7. Cragieburn Calwell PPVC 1.95% swing to Libs
8. Avondale Heights Calwell PPVC 57.99 2.99% swing to Labor
10. Essendon Callwell PPVC 53.42 a 2.49% swing to Labor

i cant find Postal for Calwell but we will need to include and use the same trend.

@Nimalan, thanks, will calculate now.

Thanks Nether Portal, Much appreciated 🙂

TCP:

* Labor: 57.5%
* Independent (Carly Moore): 42.5%

TPP:

* Labor: 67.2%
* Liberal: 32.8%

Labor did 10.1% better in Greenvale on the federal level in 2025 than on the state level in 2022, though it’s probably better to compare it with the 2022 federal election which I will do soon.

TPP (2022):

* Labor: 64.4%
* Liberal: 35.6%

So in 2025 there was a +2.8% swing to the Liberals in Greenvale on the federal level compared to 2022.

With all this put into context it’s highly unlikely the Liberals will even put up a fight in Greenvale let alone win it. Greenvale itself is more marginal but without Greenvale itself this is a classic working-class Red Wall seat.

@ Nether Portal
That is above the statewide swing to Labor which was only 1.52% in May this year. I believe this seat cursed Pesutto and the moderate faction as the low margin from state results is the reason that the right-wing of the party wanted to focus on this and St Albans. I think the state election in 2026 will be much better than the 2025 federal result but 17.2% seems too big to overcome.

It will be very interesting to see whether Carly Moore, or another strong independent, recontests this seat.

Vandon I think the libs would prefer Moore win the state seat as it would give Youhana a clear run to win Calwell federally

@ John/Vandon
I dont think Carly Moore will be as popular she does not have an ethnic advantage like Youhana and no community links she has little appeal in Roxburgh Park/Meadow Heights. Youhana or an Assyrian candidate will have an advantage and as Youhana is a Christian it is easier for Libs/Family First to preference him. If a Muslim independent runs it will be hard for Libs to preference him as they maybe be Pro-Palestine. Reason Carly Moore did well was she had hoped for Labor preselection and also most of her vote was tactical and she did better in more affluent/less diverse parts of Calwell. She may appeal in Greenvale but not Roxburgh Park or Meadow Heights where there are Musims and Assyrian Christians.

if Youhana had of gotten on top of Moore he would have easily won off moores, libs and grn preferences. as the greens had youhana above labor but had moore below. the greens preferencing labor over moore is what won them the seat. im pretty sure greenvale is entirely within Calwel so maybe someone coud calcultate th results based on the federal result?

@ John
Greenvale is entirely in Calwell and Nether Portal already calculated on Federal results see above.

oh right thanks