Nepean by-election, 2026

With leader ship rumours I think it will be Sam Groth replacing Brad Battin as leader.

I’ve also read about the leadership rumblings. I think Sam Groth or Jess Wilson or both will put their hats in the ring if the role is open. Since they are first-termers, they might struggle to win trust within the party and the electorate more broadly.

Would this be a teal seat based on federal election numbers from Flinders?

I doubt a Sam growth jess Wilson combo will eventuate being first termers they won’t have the numbers. But I think hpjes Wilson could possibly get the deputy role.

@Votante – I’ll do a map and try to get a calculation of the booths from Flinders, but my current observation is that Flinders would be a marginal teal seat.

The numbers I got for Polling Day + Rosebud PPVC
15329 LIB (48.5%)
16227 IND (51.5%)

Adding in a calculated amount of postals which split 61-39 to the Liberals in Flinders altogether, and then calculating an average amount of postals that would projected to have been cast in the electorate:
20664 LIB (51.3%)
19637 IND (48.7%)

Liberals would likely win this seat.

James – that’s interesting to see. At first glance, I thought that the independent would’ve won on Nepean’s boundaries. My guess is that there were more postal voters in Portsea and Sorrento due to the population of retirees and the distance away from the PPVC.

Sam Groth seems to be a little bit accident prone with spending tax payers money being misused, in most circumstances this would cost an mp their job but given the Liberal parties other issues it seems to have gone unnoticed. If Sam Groth I would be careful as the margin here is rubbery and this seat can swing.

@ SpaceFish
I still dont think this is a seat Labor will target. It has a very High median age and wealthy not Labor’s typical demographic. In Hindsight Labor probably wished it won Croydon in 2018 than Nepean.

Sam Groth has announced his retirement from politics after one term, citing pressure on his family including from his own party.

I was surprised to see this however this will help Jess Wilson to fight off a potential leadership challenge from Sam Groth. I suspect in days, weeks and possible months more will come to light which might be damaging as well but only time will tell.

This seat isn’t under threat, votes about 8-15% to the right of the state depending on the candidate and is only line-ball in landslide years such as 2002 or 2018.

I have been wondering about Groth’s motivations here – seen a few takes but nothing quite stands out to me yet, I think there are a few possibilities…

1. His personal leadership ambitions have been scuppered by the deposing of his key ally Brad Battin.
2. He actually is one of the more honest and genuine actors in the space and couldn’t stand the white-anting and pressure applied from the Crozier types who leaked gossip to the media and tried to hang him out to dry over the expenses thing
3. He is in fact hiding skeletons/scandals and has been asked to stand aside and announce it during a quiet summer period
4. It’s a tough job and not everyone is up to it, I doubt I would be…

I’m not 100% sure but I think Groth only joined the Liberal party in opposition to Dan Andrews and lockdowns. Was he involved in politics at all prior to that?

Perhaps he has just realised, after just getting into it, that it’s not for him.

I am also surprised by Sam Groth’s retirement announcement. He was seen as a rising star and he is leaving after just one term.

He cited party pressure which makes me wonder about the internal party culture. He had a bitter feud with Herald Sun for some time.

The Liberals should retain this seat even without Groth’s profile and name recognition.
There could be a teal challenger given how close they were in Mornington in 2022 and in Flinders (in the Nepean part) at the 2025 fed election. I wouldn’t put my money on a teal win though.

@ Votante
Like Maxim correctly said this generally a blue ribbon Liberal seat and only falls at landslide elections like 2002/2018 votes about 8-15% to the right of the state. Even without Sam Groth i expect this seat to have a higher than Average swing 8-10% possible so if Libs get 52% TPP statewide i think a 17% margin is realistic. This seat is older and Whiter than average. As mentioned above in hindsight Labor probably wished it won Croydon instead as it is more reflective of middle Australia.

@Nimalan, Nepean was a surprise Labor win in 2018. The now former Labor MP was a 25 year old in 2018. Labor was unlikely to hold onto it for more than a term. Hawthorn was another surprise win. Labor did better than expected. I reckon Labor would’ve won an inner metro seat (Brighton, Caulfield) or an eastern suburbs seat (Croydon) if they’d planned and campaigned.

With Labor on the nose in the state in 2026, a teal (if one were to run) would likely produce a closer result than a Labor challenger would.

Agree Votante
I remember just before 2018 eleciton, it was said Labor’s target for pick ups were limited to Bass, South Barwon, Ripon, Burwood and Morwell. If we compare 2018 to 2002
1. Labor did much better in the Super Rich seats like Hawthorn, Brighton, Caulfield. I would say Turnbull ousted only 2 months earlier played a role
2. Labor did not do as well in Outer East Bayswater(still won but very narrow despite better boundaries for Labor than 2002), Ferntree Gully, Evelyn, Forest Hil
3. 2022 was mostly Sophomore surgers which is why Bayswater etc had big swings

Well, it’s confirmed – going to a byelection! Sam Groth to resign immediately.

Terrible timing for the Liberals. No doubt Labor will just sit this one out, probably leave the Liberals to contest it against a wide field of independents, having to spend resources & money only months before the general election.

Yep i think Labor should sit this one out, Maybe a Teal can run such as Ben Small
This is not a seat that Labor will expect to hold long term it is full of old rich white people.

Yeah Labor have only won the seat twice in 40 years (including the 2018 landslide).

This isn’t a seat they can win outside of a huge landslide year at peak, which is absolutely not the case at the moment, so they gain nothing from contesting the byelection. They have enough seats to defend in November that they’ll need to save up their resources for.

You’d think Ben Smith would be considering a run? If he can get funding behind him again he’d be a decent chance. Could be worth a deeper look into Flinder25 booth results compared to Nepean?

Looking at the Flinders 2025 booth results over on Poll Bludger, the Libs seem to average between roughly a -8 and -10 on 2CP vs Ben Smith compared to the equivalent booths vs Labor at the 2022 state election.

I reckon the IND would have won Nepean by around a 1-2% margin on the overlapping federal result.

That said, the VIC Libs I think will almost certainly do better than the federal Libs did last year; but if the Ben Smith runs and the Liberals look at that, it would force them to actually put effort & resources into defending it.

@ Trent
Agree, neighbouring Hastings would have been better to win in 2018 as it has middle class family suburbs like Langwarrin.
Croydon is a seat Labor missed out this period of government but it a typical Middle Australia seat and it falls entirely with Deakin/Aston two seats that are important for Labor Federally while Flinders is not important for Labor.

Labor might abstain to save resources for an election year.

If Ben Smith wanted to run, he’d be pretty competitive given the federal results. He could pick up Labor votes if Labor doesn’t run. Something else for the Liberals to fear – the popularity of One Nation splitting the right-wing vote.

Will we have by-election In Albury

Labor has confirmed it will not run a candiate. Stay tuned ONP will annouce tommorow their candidiate

Rosebud-based broadcaster and journalist Tracee Hutchison will run as an independent candidate for the Nepean by-election. She announced her candidacy on 8 March, which was International Women’s Day, highlighting the fact that she will become the first female MP for Nepean if elected. Her profile is high enough to warrant a Wikipedia page. Considering her fairly strong profile, she may well make the 2CP against the Liberal Party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracee_Hutchison

The Nepean by-election will be a Liberal vs Hutchinson or Liberal vs One Nation contest. I think the VEC will intially count Liberal vs Hutchinson considering how well independent Ben Smith did in the overlapping federal seat of Flinders in the 2025 federal election.

Regardless of whether it is a Liberal vs Hutchinson or Liberal vs One Nation contest, the Liberal Party will be the flavourite to retain the seat, although a Liberal vs Hutchinson contest can be close because Greens preferences will strongly favour Hutchinson while One Nation preferences will favour the Liberal Party to a much weaker extent. By contrast, both Greens and Hutchinson’s preferences will strongly favour the Liberal Party in a Liberal vs One Nation contest, making the contest much less closer.

This by-election will also be the first electoral test for One Nation in Victoria in how it will perform at an actual election.

One Nation has selected Darren Hercus who is a civil engineer and owns a joist and truss manufacturing business in Dromana.

@Nimalan

Well, post last Saturday’s South Australian election with its blistering One Nation performance, how well will One Nation’s Hercus do here in Nepean in 5 weeks?

The Victorian Liberals have not been quite as dysfunctional as the SA Liberals have been over the past four years, on-the-nose Victorian Labor are sitting this one out, and Nepean isn’t really prime One Nation territory, demographically.

Perhaps the most useful of the SA election precursors for Nepean would be more demographically similar seats like Finniss (Victor Harbor & Goolwa) where the highest-profile of the Independents appears set to defeat the incumbent Liberal, or at a pinch the Adelaide Hills seats of Heysen (a Lib-Lab-Green 3-way tussle) or Kavel (Independent vs Labor). One Nation won’t make the final-two in any of those three seats (even though One Nation is second on first-preferences in Finniss, the voters for the candidates behind One Nation do not like it over the other remaining candidates).

If there are better guides to the dynamics in Nepean, I’m happy to hear them.

@ Andrew from 3040
I agree Finiss is probably the best comparison with parts of the Adelaide Hills. I agree it is not prime ONP territory. Mawson is part is also a comparison to some extent with Nepean although Mawson and Bass fit a bit better noting that Bass has Clyde which is very CALD and fast growing. I am not sure if ONP will make the 2CP i personally feel that Tracee Hutchinson will make it and Libs will still win with a lower primary.

If the Victorian Liberals don’t sort out the Moira Deeming preselection brouhaha-contretemps-debacle-fiasco-imbroglio quickly and with tolerable fairness to all participants, the Liberal candidate’s vote in the Nepean byelection will fall further. The Liberals are currently increasing the likelihood of a final pairing between One Nation and Independent Hutchison deciding the contest. If that were to happen in a seat with Nepean’s demographics, all bets would be off.

I am expecting some protest vote. It’s not only because Sam Groth quitting so soon but also that people are forced to vote twice this year. They can vent frustration at a by-election without locking in an MP for the entire term.

Don’t be too surprised if there is primary vote swing away from the Liberals despite Labor abstaining. I do expect the Liberals to remain in the 2CP. Who else enters the 2CP is anyone’s guess.

If ONP overperform, it would send shockwaves since this is a teal-ish or small-l liberal seat.

I have just looked at the HTV Cards
1. The Teal will not recommend any preferences.
2. Neither will Legalise Cannabis or Sustainable Australia
3. The Libertarians will preference ONP second then Libs
4. The Libs will preference Libertarians second then ONP
5. The Greens will preference the Teal second

I still think Libs will win with a reduced primary maybe 37%i think Libs will need to fall to 29% to have a chance to be knocked out of the TCP. No one is recommend a second preference to Libs. Provided Libs are in 2CP they will win

This is apparently starting to look like a complete scrap now, Liberals quite spooked by the levels of support/defection ON are attracting. Herald Sun reporting that voters generally like Wilson but hate the local liberal candidate and he’s lost the support and help of local members/vols – which won’t matter too much as they can bus in the faithful but it has given ON a massive operational boost locally.

Sounds like the IND is a non-factor but will probably soak up some of the ex-Labor and perhaps even a portion of Groth’s vote, would be surprised if she made the count or polled more than 15%.

Anonymous Liberal sources say their internals point to an ‘ugly win’, probably requiring preferences or at least barely beating ON on primaries, as Nimalan says above so long as the Liberals make the count they should win against any opponent, the increase in support for ON has probably made winning the seat a little bit easier in that sense.

ONP wouldn’t be able to win this seat between either Liberals or a Teal. In the Voice Referendum, this seat’s No Vote was below the National Average despite have a high median age and given the results for most voting booths for SA Elections had ONP perform roughy 20% (TPP between ALP) less than the No Vote to the Voice.

Labor not running here might actually benefit them as rather then Liberals and One Nation gaging up on them they are now left to fight it out between to the two. If this is seriously close or they lose it then they are going to have a horrendous election night later this year in November.

Now Liberals have declared by November that they will preference One Nation over Labor so I wonder how it would fare?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-liberals-to-preference-one-nation-at-state-election-20260426-p5zr5l.html

It might play well in the regions or outer suburbs but it’ll land extremely poorly in the inner eastern or middle ring eastern seats.

@ SpaceFish
I think you are focusing too much about educational realignment and not looking at ethnic/religious difference. So you really should be looking at Muslims in the Narre Warrens and Greenvale and not just the affluent Eastern suburbs. Please visit Westfield Fountain Gate on the weekend and you will notice there are more black and brown faces than at Eastland or Chadstone.

@Nimalan, I mentioned in a past thread that I think that outer suburbs in areas like Casey Council despite being multicultural are more likely to have poorer ethnic interrelations due to the ‘low contact intergroup threat perception’ meaning the whites there are probably more likely to even be more nationalist and have stronger prejudice towards ethnic minorities.

@ Marh
I agree i think that is different to seats like the Eastern Suburbs where there is a lot of mixing between Anglos and say they Chinese community were intermarriage and dating is more common. I think that is less likely especially between the Afghan community and Anglos so at Fountain Gate you are much less likely to see teenagers hanging out together of different races which is more common in say Knox or Eastland. However, the Narre Warrens are actually less Anglo than Ringwood, Bayswater electorates so i think ONP may come second in Narre Warrend and Cranbourne but Labor will still likely to win it.

The Nepean by-election is tommorow. I have been reading One Nation maybe doing well among Poorer Retirees between Safety Beach and Rye especially around Rosebud, Capel Sound etc where there is high disadvanatage especially with COL etc. The Rosebud Hospital debate on PPP is a major issue but i am not sure how it will go.

All eyes are on this seat as if the Liberals fail to hold or narrowly hold then they’re going to be in serious trouble come November.

“If they fail to hold or if it’s really close.

I do think being a by election held so close to the general and with the backdrop of infighting and Liberal dramas in pre-selection (both in western metro and here locally) as well as annoyance about Groth’s exit and the absence of a Labor candidate lends itself to a ONP overperformance and Liberal underperformance. But it would have to be a very serious underperformance to see them lose the seat, the only way I could see that happening is if they dropped out of the 2CP, which would require an almost halving of their primary vote.

What this by-election has shown is that the One Nation threat is real and it’s going to cause all sorts of problems for both parties. While the Liberals held here it wasn’t a great result for their primary vote. The government should be nervous as well given that the neighbouring and nearby seats such as Bass and Hastings would be much more receptive to the One Nation message.

I dont really think there is a case for Labor to hold on to Pakenham, Hastings or Bass in 2026. They are write offs. The ONP threat is more a concern in Lara, Mill Park (possible-but a strech) and Sydenham which need to be sandbagged. ONP can be have support in Werribee and Melton although new diverse housing estates make it more complicated.
Bass also has Clyde which is not friendly for ONP

Nimalan
There are two questions to be asked and though similar they are different?

– Which Labor seats could ON conceivably win?
– Where can ON put a big hole in the Labor vote so that Labor could conceivably lose – and that could be to ON or the Coalition or someone else.

On the first Lara would seem at risk, not sure about Mill Park or Sydenham. I would add Eureka to the list.

On the big hole:
– Ripon
– Bass
– Pakenham
– Hastings
– Sunbury
– Eureka
– Yan Yean
– Geelong – remembering about half of Geelong is prime ON territory, the other half not
– Bellarine – the north half
– Ballarat – similar to Geelong
– Bendigo East – enough to remove Jacinta Allan
– Melton
The big risk for Labor is if the Libs fall to third behind ON. The Liberal preferences will probably be more disciplined that ON the other way – and these are not the Small L Liberal seats like Kew or Malvern where lots of Libs wouldn’t preference ON.

@ Redistributed
First Question-Labor held seats ONP can win
1. Bass
2. Ripon
3. Eureka
4.Hastings
5. Sunbury
6. Yan Yean
7. Melton
8. Lara

Of those seats above i think Lara is the only one which is not winnable for the Coalition but winnable for ONP provided Libs run third.
Sydenham and Mill Park have strong Southern/Eastern European communities which Kos Samaras and Anglo Eleciton Insights have pointed out are increasing attracted to ONP. I think Sydenham is winnable for Coalition but Mill Park is only possible for ONP but still a strech

I have to disagree that half of Geelong prime ONP territory It is only Bannockburn and the eastern fringe around Whittington. If you mapped Voice results on this seat it would have voted Yes so more Progressive than average. Also you will have some small L Liberals in Newtown where the private schools like Geelong College are so they may vote Liberal but preference Labor over ONP even if a few do it it will be enough to save Labor.

Wendourre- a mix of Educated suburbs and low income White suburbs where ONP can make inroads possible Coalition pick up.Need a diciplined flow of preference for Labor to be defeated. I dont know if some educated Liberal voters will preference Labor over ONP.

Bellarine is more likely that ONP can put a hole in the northern parts and help Coalition win it. On current boundaries Coalition would have won it in 2010.

I dont think Bendigo East-ONP is really needed as it has a mix of middle class suburbs and rural areas so a moderate Nats like Lathlain could appeal. It would be a Nationals seat on Federal results

Bendigo West maybe a big hole but i still think margin is too big and the Castlemaine area is progressive and Ultra left

Melton and Werribee are interesting as ONP will appeal to White Working Class but not to South Asians in the new housing estates. While ONP is not really hostile officially to Non Muslim South Asians some social media commentary is and unlike say the Sri Lankan community in Glen Waverley South Asians in the Western Suburbs are much more recent so could be more insecure about their place in Australia.

@Nimalan regarding non-whites such as South Asians, I think ONP and Right-wing Commentators don’t tend to be hostile to those that are Christians (but even that has conditions with it being if they only attend a white-majority English Speaking Church) as that demographic tends to be a more assimilated and a conservative group. It consist with people like Danny Nalliah, Joanna Howe and possibly Nicole Werner.

@ Marh
I agree. Joanna Howe who is Goan Catholic but married to a White Aussie supports ONP and interviewed Hanson. Danny Nalliah may actually join ONP. I think if Nicole Werner wanted to defect she will be welcome. The thing that Christians of Colour often marry Whites more than those of other faiths. ONP has never really attacked Hindus or Sikhs but unlike someone Joanna Howe and Nicole Werner they dont have a bridge to the Anglo Right like a shared faith.