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I read that Alex Dyson was the biggest individual recipient of electoral donations at the 2025 election, even higher than either of the sitting teal MPs.
Dyson was probably not the right fit for this seat. Someone more in the mould of Cathy McGowan would’ve stormed home here.
This is one of the few seats where i think ONP will not be competative in to the same degree and Libs have a better chance of retaining. The seat due to the fact that Western District farmers have traditionally been richer were Liberal rather than National. Like we discussed in the Indi thread, Wannon is more progressive than Mallee, Nichools and Gippsland which is why Climate 200 targetted it unlike say Gippsland so if Alex Dyson was from Bairnsdale i dont think he would have been remotely competative.
Does the economics of dairy farming still compare favourably to cropping or grazing on even more marginal soils in the Mallee for example? Anecdotally I don’t believe this to be the case but not in a great position to argue the case.
This seat’s demogrpahics look very friendly to ONP, although some areas are relatviely high income for regional areas the accompanying high education rates that would also help buffer the Liberal vote are not there as they are in metropolitan centres.
Just seems that so far ONP have really struggled to gain a foothold in places like Warrnambool and to some extent Colac, but I expect they could do very well in places like Ararat and Portland.
Main factor that keeps ONP at bay in Wannon would be the Surf Coast and Moyne Shire areas that are more sea-changer in character (not dissimilar to comments on the Indi thread) which provide the Coalition a preference source whilst Tehan’s strength in his home base of Hamilton and long term voting patterns in Colac probably help him stay in the count ahead of progressive parties/candidates