ALP 7.2%
Incumbent MP
Paul Hamer, since 2018.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers the suburbs of Box Hill, Box Hill North, Box Hill South, Mont Albert, Mont Albert North, Blackburn South and parts of Blackburn. Box Hill covers western parts of the Whitehourse council area.
History
Box Hill was created in 1945, and has been dominated by the Liberal Party, although it has been won by the ALP at a few elections.
The seat was first won in 1945 by the ALP’s Robert Gray. Gray had held the seat of Nunawading since a 1943 by-election. He held Box Hill for one term, losing in 1947 to George Reid of the Liberal Party.
Reid held the seat until 1952, when he lost again to Gray. Reid finally defeated Gray in 1955, and held the seat until his retirement in 1973. He served as a minister in the Liberal state government continuously from 1955 to 1973.
Morris Williams, also from the Liberal Party, won Box Hill in 1973. In 1976 he moved to the new seat of Doncaster, holding it until his retirement in 1988.
The Liberal Party’s Donald Mackinnon won Box Hill in 1973. He held the seat until 1982, when he was defeated by Margaret Ray of the ALP. Ray was re-elected in 1985 and 1988.
In 1992, a redistribution abolished the neighbouring seat of Balwyn, the sitting Liberal member for Balwyn, Robert Clark, challenged Ray in Box Hill, with the Liberals prevailing. Clark held Box Hill for the next 26 years, until 2018.
Clark served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the second term of the Kennett government and joined the Liberal frontbench after the 1999 election. Clark served as Attorney-General in the Liberal government from 2010 to 2014.
Clark was defeated at the 2018 election by Labor candidate Paul Hamer. Hamer was re-elected in 2022.
- Saravina Afaj (Victorian Socialists)
- Paul Hamer (Labor)
- Sally Houguet (Liberal)
- Aaron Qin (Greens)
- Heena Sinha Cheung (Independent)
Assessment
Box Hill will be a key target for the Liberal Party.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Hamer | Labor | 18,340 | 41.3 | +0.4 |
| Nicole Ta-Ei Werner | Liberal | 15,593 | 35.2 | -8.9 |
| Joanne Shan | Greens | 6,267 | 14.1 | +0.7 |
| Paul Dean | Democratic Labour | 1,083 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Sebastian Folloni | Animal Justice | 824 | 1.9 | +1.2 |
| Gary Ong | Family First | 809 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Alicia Riera | Freedom Party | 541 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Wayne Tseng | Independent | 464 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Cameron Liston | Independent | 436 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 1,635 | 3.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Hamer | Labor | 25,383 | 57.2 | +4.1 |
| Nicole Ta-Ei Werner | Liberal | 18,973 | 42.8 | -4.1 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south-west.
The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.7% in the south-west to 59.6% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 15.4% in the north-west to 17.1% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 17.1 | 56.7 | 5,606 | 12.6 |
| East | 15.7 | 59.6 | 5,526 | 12.4 |
| North-West | 15.4 | 58.8 | 5,137 | 11.5 |
| Pre-poll | 13.1 | 57.1 | 18,861 | 42.4 |
| Other votes | 12.7 | 53.4 | 9,347 | 21.0 |
Election results in Box Hill at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Labor hold, changing demographics will help them out here.
It’s unlikely the Libs will win this seat. The densification around Box Hill Central is making this seat stronger for Labor. The Libs scaring off Chinese voters over the past few elections won’t do them any favours. However the Libs will need to win this seat if they want a chance to form government. Preselecting a candidate from that community would be the first step the Libs can do.
Densification and changing demographics won’t help the Liberals. The Liberals have let Box Hill and Ashwood (formerly Burwood) slip away. They used to be part of Kennett’s heartland.
@Votante both had more favourable boundaries for the Libs during the Kennett years, taking in affluent areas like Camberwell and Balwyn which they don’t anymore and instead have more marginal middle class areas. But even then these seats should still be comfortable ones for the Libs that they shouldn’t need to worry about. If the Libs can’t win them back, they won’t be able to form government.
The sole booth Surrey Hills that the Liberals won in 2022 and swung to them was in protest to the works on the station upgrade as it was blocking everywhere, I would say now that anger will have gone away and people can see the benefits of the changes through there.
Agreed Surrey Hills will swing back to Labor now the station upgrade is complete. Mont Albert might also swing to Labor as well. There were double digit swings to Labor in both areas at the federal election. Jess Wilson actually lives in Mont Albert so really she should be contesting here instead of Kew. This is the sort of seat she should appeal to particularly the affluent western end of Surrey Hills and Mont Albert.
Excluding suburbs separated by rivers, creeks or other waterways, or railways/motorways, Box Hill and Mont Albert would have to be the most different suburbs that are side by side anywhere in Australia, in Melbourne at the very least.
Socioeconomically, if not physically, you could probably make an argument there for Heidelberg and West Heidelberg.
Paul Hamer is under some pressure from the issue of the Blackburn Activity Centre. He is not shying away from it which is good but it is not popular in the Blackburn area. Almost every second house in the Box Hill end of the south side of Blackburn has a Liberal Party sponsored poster outside their house. Not so much north of the railway line but some. The Liberals know they have a hot button issue here. This could be a Liberal win if they pick the right candidate.
Interesting @redistributed,
I remember during the federal election in Aston I mostly saw Liberal signs so it will be interesting to see if it’s momentum for the Liberals or a small minority that are angry. From the feedback I’ve heard most people are happy with activity centres or understand why it’s needed.
Paul Hamer has been appointed as a minster, I’m not that surprised tbh.
Kos Samaras, said Labor was stupid to think the Eastern Suburbs was their new base in the latest podcast. With the exception of Monbulk which this is the seat that is most likely to stay with Labor but even that is not guranteed. The Blackburn activity centre may cause issues plus the Box Hill Brickworks site is a major issue. I actually think Jess Willson will be well liked in much of this remember she grew up in Mont Albert and went to Mont Albert Primary School also the Southern part of this seat was in the old partially in the old Bennetswood electorate which her father represented.