Scullin – Australia 2028

What is interesting in this seat is that the combined Right Wing minor party vote is 15% (ONP, TOP and PFP) this is the same as what what in 2022 when there was anti-lockdown backlash. I remember one polling saying ONP will now make the 2CP in this seat. i feel what happened is that there was a left ward drift in this seat among Muslims/Non Europeans reversing anti-lockdown sentiment but a further right ward shift among Southern/Eastern Europeans. Kos Samras said yesterday that he is picking many Greeks/Italians and Croatians especilaly second Generation one moving to ONP

@Nimalan, I wonder if Southern/Eastern Europeans is an example of a group where it is actually the younger generations rather than the older generations that are more right-wing and anti-multicultural unlike their Anglo Australians (and even Asian Australians to some extent) counterparts which is the complete opposite.

@ Marh
I agree as younger generations have grown up being accepted by the Anglo majority while they remain socially conservative. They also grew up with benefits of social mobility In hindsight i should have picked this up when i was a teenager growing up in Manningham in the Early 2000s with a large Greek/Italian community. The communities were very proud and never hid the identity but they were socially conservative and placed importance in Family Honour, Extended Family and Religion as a cultural idenrity. With Anglo Australians younger generations have lost religion. Interesting while there is little immigration these days Greek Orthodoxy is actually rising so younger generations are not losing religion. Nearly all Greeks i am friends with and grew up married in churches and their children are still recieving Christeinings which is not happening among younger Anglos.

In my experience, most Croatians that I know are especially conservative. Many have had an almost visceral hatred towards the Labor Party even back in the early 2000s, despite living in the western suburbs Labor heartland. Many are also quite nationalistic – towards both Australia and Croatia – so I assume that One Nation’s brand of nationalist populism will resonate with them.

@ Trent
That my explain why Labor is loosing ground in Gorton which has a signifiant Croatian community. Scullin has a very large Macedonian community. However in Gorton there is a the growth of other CALD communities that will soften this impact. In Scullin, there is also growth of Muslims and South Asian which will offset this trend

My assumption is that a lot of the Croatian vote was probably already parked with the Liberal Party, but probably bled to minor right-wing parties more recently and will now bleed to One Nation. Whereas I think the Greek, Italian and Macedonian vote would have been more dispersed so One Nation could be gaining from both parties more among those communities.

It might be interesting though that for second generations Asian Australians though that upward social mobility has not translated to conservative votes in fact it might have done the opposite probably due to this demographic being heavily University Educated.

@ Marh
I think that is one reason the other thing and Kos Samaras mentioned this in a debate with Drew Pavlou an entire generation (3rd Generation) of Southern/Eastern Europeans grew up without being demonized and being teased or looked down. We have to remember that this community has had its 3rd Generation now adults and raising children. For non Europeans they are certain communities where we seeing the 3rd Generation now emerging (Turkish, Lebanese and Vieetnamese). i think Lebanese Christians maybe moving rightwards the suburb of Oatlands is one example but for Lebanese Muslims they never had breathing room they only got a 3 year break from the start of the Pandemic to October 7th. I think Turkish unlike Greeks will be discriminatied more due to Religion in Australia. I wonder if 3rd Generation Vietnamese Australians who are Catholic may become more right wing?

This is apparently is going to be a One Nation target, I could see them making be inroads to a seat like this.

There are potentially “Sanders-Trump” voters in traditionally working class suburbs looking for non-major party alternatives. Last election, Vic Socialists came second on primary votes at several booths including in Campbellfield, Epping and Thomastown and also got double digit primary votes in Lalor.

I don’t think Scullin will flip. McEwen and Bendigo are much lower hanging fruit for One Nation.

Hi Nimalan that some interesting ideas I do think we heading back to a nation where religion is more important then the colour of your skin especially if the census reveals a percentage decline of christian followers which it likely will

@ Votante
Just a couple of days after the election i mentioned this about Scullin see link below. I said i felt Labor is gradually loosing 2nd/3rd generation Southern/Eastern Europeans. This seat probably has the highest % of that demographic in the nation. Kos Samaras also pointed that out sometime after i did see the video i linked above. I think VS did well in Part because of the suburbs you mention especially Campbellfield (previously in Calwell) have large Muslim communities and their candidiate, Omar Hassan, was heavily involved in the Palestine protests. I think ONP will come second and there will be a signficant swing here but there are also large Muslims and Non Muslim South Asian communities who are unlikley to vote Labor and who are growing in this seat so that probably offsets in part the right ward movement of Southern/Eastern Europeans.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2025/ballarat2025#comment-842851

@Votante,
Agreed and I think it’s a bit too large of a margin but if things continue to worsen for federal Labor then things could get a bit tricky. I’ll be interesting to see what the state seats do here in November as it will give us some sort of indicator of how well One Nation does.

@ Greenlach7
I personally feel that among many Ethnic minorities religion is peristant across Generations for example Greek Orthodoxy is growing despite very little immigration from Greece/Cyprus these days. Judaism has also been growing again with little immigration these is due to natural growth only. I think even in a secularlised society religion can still act as a barrier for example Goan Catholic can eat the Bunnings sausage without inquiring what meat it is while a practising Gujarati Hindu or Bengali Muslim cannot despite all being South Asian and dark skinned. Religion often acts as Civilisational boundaries which is my Modern right wing nationalists such as Tommy Robinson use religion i think it goes to the Clash of Civilisations narrative from Samuel Huntington in the 1990s. Shared religion even when there is a racial difference can often still lead to assimilation through intermarriage Filipinos in Western societies are probably an example of this.

@Greenlach7, I think the massive increases from 2011 to 2021 ‘No Religion’ and decrease of Christianity came from these factor

1) Increasing secularization and the decline of church/churchgoing is most obvious factor but it isn’t actually fully picture
2) From 2016, the Census ballot was rearranged to put ‘No Religion’ onto the top which probably made many who were not particularly religious to tick ‘No Religion’.
3) Same-sex marriage and increase support of LGBT Rights might further contributed to the decline with many feeling religion gave them restrictions.
4) Covid-19 and it’s lockdowns made people who were not very aligned with religion just give up further increasing the amount of individuals to tick ‘No Religion’.

However with the lockdowns ending, it would be interesting if there would be a correction with individuals ticking ‘Christianity’ coming back up especially in the current day of the rise of One Nation and it’s nationalism?