Blaxland – Australia 2028

Pauline Hanson say recently said there are “No good Muslims”. I think if the Coalition made a preference deal with One Nation, this will likely crash the Coalition vote further in this seat.

@ Marh
Do you feel Angus Taylor Push back on Hanson’s comment this will gain respect among Muslims?

Ahmed Ouf ran as an independent in 2025. He’s been critical of Isaac Herzog’s visit and NSW policing. I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to run in 2027 for state parliament in either Auburn or Granville. He mentioned last year he’s open to running in 2028 federally. The rise of One Nation might encourage him.

In Blaxland, if there’s a swing from both Labor and Liberals and swing to One Nation, it would help him finish in the 2CP. He only narrowly missed out at the 3CP stage in 2025.

@ Votante the point still stands that the Libs will never Preferece Ahmed Ouf
Many on the right attacked him after he did a video on Australia day comparing to Holocaust Rememberence Day and advising people not to celebrate it

@ Votante, it is interesting though that Steve Christou is running as a Libertarian candidate in the state seat of Granville. Given Christou in one hand might have some support with banning books but he since the became more anti-multicultural and probably pro-Israel.

In either case in Blaxland or in a state seat, the Labor primary will be so large that it will be difficult to beat.

Greens and any left-wing or pro-Palestine candidates running will preference Ahmed Ouf ahead of Labor with the Liberals further down. At the federal election, Liberals will recommend a preference for Labor ahead of him because of his stance on Palestine. At the state election with OPV, the Liberals might just issue an open ticket.

Re Steve Christou while he has never formally identified as Pro-Israel. On the actual day of Bondi he posted on instagram that Albanese has blood on his hands. A few days a local resident confronted him and accused him of causing division in the Community, Steve Christou then described than man as a “piece of shit”. After the Anti-Herzog protests he was angry when Labor politicians called for an investigation into NSW Police he showed the Australian Flag and said that the Pro-Palestine protestors were importing trouble and holding Australia hostage.I do think Steve Christou stance on LGBT issues may have made him popular among some sections of the Muslim community but i think that is now a much lower priority.

Ahmed Ouf and Steve Christoy have clashed again this time on the Iranian Regime. Steve Christou always shows the Australian Flag when he is attacking Ahmed Ouf

https://www.instagram.com/p/DVuh7u_CI8w/?hl=en

There is more Clashing between Steve Christou and Ahmed Ouf this time over Ben Roberts-Smith. I see more culture wars in this seat.

Something I noticed about ONP voters preferences in 2025 in Blaxland and Watson – most ONP voters preferenced the Muslim independents over Labor. This may seem counterintuitive at first because One Nation and Ahmed Ouf are almost on opposite ends of the political spectrum. They don’t just differ on the issue of Palestine.

I believe that many ONP voters may not be conservative or staunchly pro-Israel but are anti-incumbent and want to shake things up. Since Labor was and is still the incumbent, preferencing Ahmed Ouf would be the anti-incumbent move. Interestingly, ONP voters mostly preferenced Liberals over teal MPs in teal seats.

Remember, the political landscape was very different last election day. The election was held before Barnaby Joyce’s defection to ONP, the Bondi Beach massacre, two Coalition splits and the One Nation surge in polling as well as the current fuel crisis.

I made a theory why that Immigration Debate in Australia within mainstream conservative and nationalist circles seems to not only include immigration numbers but also about multiculturalism and identity itself
1) Australia really does not have a ‘second’ culture compete in the same way unlike NZ (Māori), Canada (French-speaking) and even US (African Americans and Latinos) which meant Australia perceived ‘Assimilation’ is Anglo Celtic and despite being new-world, Australia Nationalist seems to increasingly adopt European-style ethnonationalism.
2) Due to the White Australia Policy, Australia non-white communities are not as established as their peers. As a result, overwhelm majority of non-white CALD are still just first generations with only the Lebanese Muslim and Vietnamese Australians only starting to notice the third generation giving birth. This is further evident from having a foreign-born population (29% in 2021 Census) even bigger than the non-white population (my estimation is 22-23% in 2021 Census) unlike let say Canada which in 2021 Census 23% Foreign-born while being 27% being Visible Minority (non-whites other than Indigenous) indicating the latter has a more established non-white CALD.
3) Majority of Australia’s new arrivals were actually from Europe and NZ until around 20 years ago (Pauline Hanson maiden speech in 1996 already complained about being ‘swamp by Asians’ when 40% of Australia’s new arrivals were from Asia between 1984 to 1995 which most that ‘Asian Wave’ itself being from Indochinese Refugees and to a lesser extent 1989 Tiananmen Square incident). This also probably explains 2) hence why from 2010’s onwards when immigration tended to be from Asia that the Non-white CALD grown rapidly both in numbers and vibes.

Because of all these reasons, there seems to be noticeably stronger sentiment among anti-multiculturalist in Australia that there is ‘hope’ to stop and even reverse multiculturalism due to having a less established non-white CALD.

There is also a BBC article that seems pretty relevant on why Australia lacks ethnic minorities in Parliament – https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-61432762

@ Marh
I agree with your points. I think it is true to some extent many right wing Australians see Australia as a nation state for Anglo-Celtic Australians and all others are minorities. I was talking to relatives in the US and they were actually surprised that is Australia we would classify Greeks, Italians, Croats as ethnic minorities and not just White. It is true that Australia lacks a second culture i would not say Indigenous culture is a second culture as it pretty much just symbolic in the Capital cities and the vasts majority of Australians dont personally know any indigenous peoples. I also agree that non White CALD are less established even before Lebanese and Vietnamese i think the Turkish community was the earliest wave. I feel Australia adopted multiculturalism in 1970s for two reasons
1. Distance itself from White Australia policy
2. Create a new identity as prior to that many Australians saw themseleves as British
I think modern day nationalists feel that those two scenariots are not applicanble anymore and that Australia has a districtive cultural idenitiy with is fraternal rather than paternal to British culture.
The US never adopted multculturalism formally as it had already developed a national cultural identity and it believed that Civil Rights Laws where the protection mechanism for minorities.
NZ did not adopt multiculturalism formally because it is Bicultural and the Maori who have more political power did not want their culture being on the same level as say Indian or Thai culture.
Canada adopted multiculturalism following a Royal commission which also made the country bilingual it was to deal with the Quebec seperatist movement more than to support visable minorities.