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Hume is right at the edge of metropolitan Sydney and is where the growing mortgage belt meets semi-rural areas.
There is a demographic shift east of The Northern Road (Leppington, Oran Park, Harrington Park) where there are new greenfield housing estates and a growing mortgage belt. The demographic centre of the electorate is shifting towards this area. Voters are more likely to vote Green than One Nation. The demographics are favouring Labor longer-term.
In the southern and western parts, the semi-rural nature and historic small towns and villages see stronger support for the Liberals. One Nation also does better here than in the newer suburbs.
@ Votante
Harrington Park is more Estabalished which is why it is more Liberal voting with a higher median age. I do agree tht Oran Park, Leppington and Bringelly will be mortgage belt battlegrounds though. Rossmore and Bringelly are still rural but with a rail extention i expect it to change quickly. I just looked at the 2010 Macathur guide Narellan Vale had the biggest swing for any booth in NSW in both 1996 and 2007 but it did not really swing mich a 0.6% swing in 2022 to Libs against state trend while in 2022 change of governmet it was 6% so maybe once these suburbs become established it is getting more Conservative
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/election-2010/macarthur
*0.6 swing to Libs in 2025 i mean
I’m not convinced that Taylor becoming leader is going to solve the Liberals woes, it will be interesting to see if he has the numbers.
There’s mention from the party that Taylor is one or two votes short of winning. I think there some Liberal MPs who aren’t too keen on Ley but wouldn’t want her to go so soon to save face or to minimise instability.
@Nimalan, Harrington Park has a lot of young families and mortgage holders in some parts. Elderslie is another new growth suburb.
Angus as leader is s blessing for Labor. He gives the impression that he considers himself as entitled and is lazy.
Angus Taylor has resigned from the frontbench, leadership challenge likely incoming.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-11/angus-taylor-resigns-from-frontbench/106332492
Changing leader is only going worsen things for the Liberals, also its likely if Taylor can’t turn things around he’ll be rolled as leader by Hastie.
It’s like same horse but different jockey unless Taylor can turn things around, reconcile with the Nationals and make the Liberals stand for something. I think there’s a genuine fear in the party that ex-Coalition voters could be lost permanently if they don’t improve their standing.
Should taylor win then ley may pull.the.plug and cause a by-election.
There is a real chance the libs may lose the seat to.the nats or independent
Angus Taylor has won the Liberal leadership – 34 to 17. Jane Hume has won the deputy leadership.
I’ve been looking at recent opinion polling. There has been minimal shift in polling to the Coalition since the leadership spill. It’s been two and a bit weeks so it still might be early days. On the plus side, net approval of Taylor has been better than Ley’s. This also coincided with Albanese’s sliding popularity. Some of the preferred PM ratings now include Hanson coming second.
Niki Savva said in a podcast that if Taylor had run for the leadership in May 2025 without a joint ticket with Senator Price, he likely would’ve gotten it. Maybe he would’ve minimised the slide in support to One Nation.
The question is whether Angus Taylor would abandon or water down multiculturalism? At this point of time Angus Taylor doesn’t seem to be changing this as evident with Taylor recently attending the Chinese New Year festival in Box Hill (in Melbourne) but doing so might have made recent Coalition – One Nation Voters still reluctant to come home to Coalition given the current environment is that anti-multiculturalism has united Australian Conservative Camp (except for the Liberal Party of course) since March for Australia rallies and Bondi Attack.
@ Marh
As i mentioned in the Oxley thread. I feel Multiculturalism has already been waterdown from the Keating era when it was rights-based and seen as inherent in a New Australian identity. Today is it seen as conditional and a privelege for CALD communities if they have seen as accepting “Australian Values” etc. I think this already started post 9/11 and especially after the Cronilla riots. I can see even Hastie attending a Chinese New Year festival but there message would be different rather than saying Australia is the most succesful multicultural country the message would we “I would like to which the Chinese Community in Australia and around the world a very Happy New Year. I hope you celebrate this important day with friends and family and may the year ahead bring good health, love and prosperity.” The message would probably not use the word multicultural. I feel Harmony Day will be a target rather than Chinese New year, Hannukah, Diwali or even Eid. Steve Christou had a Ramadan message on his instagram.