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If bad polls are the litmus test how ling can Susan Ley last?
@John: “The libs were on track to win under pesutto just as they were under O’Brien”; @Trent: “They were legitimately in a winning position under Pesutto though”: No poll under their leadership has ever shown the VIC Coalition to be on track to win. Note that the current pendulum is dire for the Coalition and the Coalition needs a 53% 2PP to win assuming uniform swings. No poll under the leadership of Pesutto was estimated to imply a Coalition 2PP of 53% or higher, although two Resolve polls in the early days of Battin’s leadership had an implied Coalition 2PP higher than 53%.
You don’t need a 2pp of 53% really you don’t even need 50% you just need to win 50% of the seats +1
The coalition could win 45 seats by 1 vote and lose the other 44 by 10000 votes.
If Jess Wilson plays her cards right in the coming year, she could help sandbag Liberal seats against teal independents or even prevent them from running. This also includes helping Pesutto retain Hawthorn. I thought that under Battin, Hawthorn was borderline depending on whether an independent was running. Wilson would need to formulate and win the economic argument to at least be competitive.
About Pesutto’s polling numbers, I didn’t think he was on track to win but I thought he was at least competitive. Labor’s 2PP polled worse than the Coalition’s for the first time in late 2024. Also note that Labor, right in the middle of the term had some wriggle room and was not in campaign mode.
I’d rate Wilson’s chances as fair and wouldn’t rule out her winning the lot. She’s gonna measure up pretty good against Jacinta Allen. Allen will probably have to spend more time in her own seat. Don’t be surprised if she runs for Bendigo West.