Tasmanian distribution of preferences liveblog

12:47pm – George Razay has been elected in Bass – not even for the seventh seat, but the sixth.

Razay ended up on 6968 votes, with Jess Greene on 6555 votes and Geoff Lyons on 6294. So Lyons misses out.

This means the Assembly has 14 Liberals, 10 Labor, 5 Greens, 5 independents and one from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.

Saturday 11:43am – Earlier today they finished distributed Simon Wood’s votes, and Rob Fairs was elected with a surplus of about 1300 votes. By the time I sat down to add this report, they’d already distributed Fairs’ surplus. The current position (compared to last night) is:

• Greene (ALP) – 0.7236 (+0.0212)
• Lyons (ALP) – 0.6824 (+0.0347)
• Razay (IND) – 0.6058 (+0.0467)
• Frydrych (SFF) – 0.5527 (+0.0370)

Frydrych will be excluded next, and Razay will need to close a gap of of 0.077 quotas to win, against Geoff Lyons.

Friday, 7:56pm – This is the final update for Friday night, from Bass. The Liberal Party’s Simon Wood has lost his seat, and the Liberal Party’s chances of gaining a seat in this election have ended. After the distribution of preferences from fourth-placed Labor candidate Melissa Anderson, fourth-placed Liberal Simon Wood will be excluded next tomorrow morning.

The position of the remaining candidates:

• Fairs (LIB) – 0.8646 (+0.0077)
• Greene (ALP) – 0.7023 (+0.2084)
• Lyons (ALP) – 0.6477 (+0.1256)
• Razay (IND) – 0.5591 (+0.0122)
• Frydrych (SFF) – 0.5157 (+0.0095)
• Wood (LIB) – 0.4861 (+0.0062)

Jess Greene has overtaken Geoff Lyons for the second Labor seat but both are now in a winning position. The closest contender is George Razay. Michal Frydrych will need to do well on Wood’s preferences to make it past Razay and stay in the count. Presumably Wood’s preferences will push Fairs over quota and many will then exhaust.

If Frydrych is excluded, the next question will be whether his preferences flow to Razay at a high enough rate to push him ahead of one of the Labor candidates. I really can’t pick that.

But we should know the answer tomorrow. Two more candidates will need to be excluded, plus we will likely have Fairs’ surplus to distribute.

7:19pm – The count has finished in Braddon, with the expected result. The final result between the last three standing candidates for two seats was:

• Jaensch (LIB) – 1.0232
• Broad (ALP) – 1.0165
• Bleyer (GRN) – 0.5981

Not very close at all!

As far as Bass is concerned, I believe we will be getting one more count tonight and they hope to finish the count tomorrow.

5:46pm – They have finished distributing Rebekah Pentland’s preferences in Bass, and George Razay has done particularly well, shooting to the front of the pack.

• Fairs (LIB) – 0.8569 (+0.0259)
• Razay (IND) – 0.5468 (+0.1205)
• Lyons (ALP) – 0.5221 (+0.0222)
• Frydrych (SFF) – 0.5062 (+0.0721)
• Greene (ALP) – 0.4940 (+0.0248)
• Wood (LIB) – 0.4800 (+0.0140)
• Anderson (ALP) – 0.3848 (+0.0173)

Simon Wood is now in second-last place, and is looking unlikely to win. Anderson’s preferences should favour Lyons and Greene, who are quite close to each other. It may well be that Simon Wood’s preferences (at least those who are surplus to Rob Fairs’ needs) could be decisive between Razay, Frydrych and Greene for the final seat.

3:30pm – Preferences from Greens candidate Lauren Ball have been distributed in Bass. The current standings are:

• Fairs (LIB) – 0.8310 (+0.0065)
• Lyons (ALP) – 0.4999 (+0.0276)
• Greene (ALP) – 0.4692 (+0.0417)
• Wood (LIB) – 0.4660 (+0.0043)
• Frydrych (SFF) – 0.4341 (+0.0189)
• Razay (IND) – 0.4264 (+0.0340)
• Anderson (ALP) – 0.3675 (+0.0383)
• Pentland (IND) – 0.3650 (+0.0286)

That’s eight candidates left for three seats. The gap between Lyons and Greene has shrunk, and Greene has pushed into third place for now. Melissa Anderson has also barely overtaken Pentland, so the ex-JLN MP will be knocked out next. George Razay continues to get closer to Frydrych.

3:01pm – The count has concluded in Lyons, and Carlo Di Falco has become the first member of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party to win a seat in Tasmania. He gained the biggest share of Brian Mitchell’s surplus, although a majority of his votes exhausted.

The final count was:

• Shelton (LIB) – 0.9193 (+0.0232)
• Di Falco (SFF) – 0.9008 (+0.0515)
• Cameron (LIB) – 0.6142 (+0.0155)

So the effective margin for the final seat was 2,685 votes, or 0.2866 quotas.

1:50pm – Brian Mitchell has been officially elected in Lyons on preferences from Richard Goss, and now has quite a sizeable surplus. The distribution of that surplus will be the final round in the Lyons count. Here is the standing of the remaining candidates:

• Mitchell (ALP) – 1.3436
• Shelton (LIB) – 0.8961
• Di Falco (SFF) – 0.8494
• Cameron (LIB) – 0.5987

There’s no reason to think Cameron will do well on the Mitchell surplus, although plenty of votes will exhaust..

12:43pm – I thought I would summarise the intra-party contests, and where MPs have lost their seats to colleagues:

• Short-term Labor MP Casey Farrell, who replaced Rebecca White when she quit state politics to run for Brian Mitchell’s federal seat of Lyons, has been defeated by Brian Mitchell.
• Liberal MP Simon Behrakis has been replaced by Marcus Vermey in Clark. Vermey won the first Liberal seat, with Behrakis narrowly losing to fellow MP Madeleine Ogilvie for the second seat.
• Liberal MP Nic Street has lost his seat to independent Peter George in Franklin. With the Liberal Party losing one of their seats, there was some question about whether Street or Petrusma would lose, but it was not close.
• We still don’t know if Simon Wood will lose his seat in Bass, thanks to the entrance of Bridget Archer into state politics, or if he would win a fourth seat for the Liberal Party.

12:40pm – The count has concluded in Franklin, with Labor’s Meg Brown defeating Liberal MP Nic Street by 1,378 votes. That is a loss of one Liberal seat to independent Peter George, which has been offset by the Liberals gaining a seat off the JLN in Braddon.

12:31pm – With the exclusion of Chris Gatenby in Bass, there are now nine candidates competing for the last three seats:

• Fairs (LIB) – 0.8245 (+0.1193)
• Lyons (ALP) – 0.4722 (+0.0045)
• Wood (LIB) – 0.4617 (+0.1458)
• Greene (ALP) – 0.4274 (+0.0027)
• Frydrych (SFF) – 0.4152 (+0.0050)
• Razay (IND) – 0.3923 (+0.0070)
• Pentland (IND) – 0.3365 (+0.0033)
• Anderson (ALP) – 0.3292 (+0.0034)
• Ball (GRN) – 0.3200 (+0.0014)

Fairs is a long way out in front and will easily win the fifth seat. Geoff Lyons is opening a lead on Jess Greene for the guaranteed second Labor seat, but preferences from Melissa Anderson could shift that balance. Presumably the Labor candidates will do well from Greens preferences, which will be distributed next.

Either Michal Frydrych or George Razay have a good shot depending on Pentland’s preferences.

11:51am – Casey Farrell’s votes elected Jen Butler in Lyons, and Jen Butler’s surplus has now been distributed, leaving three seats to be decided.

• Mitchell (ALP) – 0.9174 (+0.1427)
• Shelton (LIB) – 0.8705 (+0.0112)
• Di Falco (SFF) – 0.8150 (+0.0153)
• Cameron (LIB) – 0.5851 (+0.0062)
• Goss (ALP) – 0.5526 (+0.0952)

Goss has fallen narrowly short of Cameron and will be excluded. This should push Mitchell over quota, but I think the remaining preferences will likely favour the Shooters. Certainly Cameron is far too far behind to catch up.

11:45am – Jacquie Petrusma’s surplus has now been distributed in Franklin. The next step will be the exclusion of Jess Munday and then the count will be finished. The current position is:

• Street (LIB) – 0.7829
• Brown (ALP) – 0.5893
• Munday (ALP) – 0.4153

Munday’s preferences should flow strong enough to Brown to elect her to the final seat.

10:42am – Fifth-placed Labor candidate Luke Moore has been excluded in Bass, and his preferences have pushed Geoff Lyons out in front of Jess Greene by about 0.04 quotas.

With four seats filled, there are ten candidates left. Rob Fairs will get elected, and at least one of Lyons or Greene.

Both Lyons and Greene have managed to overtake Frydrych, with one more Labor candidate to be excluded. They will also do relatively well on Greens preferences.

There is also 0.72 quotas sitting with two independents that could make a big difference.

• Fairs (LIB) – 0.7052 (+0.0047)
• Lyons (ALP) – 0.4677 (+0.1006)
• Greene (ALP) – 0.4247 (+0.0550)
• Frydrych (SFF) – 0.4102 (+0.0049)
• Razay (IND) – 0.3853 (+0.0102)
• Pentland (IND) – 0.3331 (+0.0039)
• Anderson (ALP) – 0.3258 (+0.0629)
• Ball (GRN) – 0.3185 (+0.0049)
• Wood (LIB) – 0.3159 (+0.0069)
• Gatenby (LIB) – 0.2952 (+0.0017)

Friday, 10:22am – Nationals candidate John Tucker has been excluded in Lyons, and it has been helpful to the Shooters, pushing Di Falco far ahead of the fourth Liberal candidate. There are four seats left to fill. It is hard to see anyone other than Di Falco winning the last seat.

• Butler (ALP) – 0.8794 (+0.0297)
• Shelton (LIB) – 0.8593 (+0.0427)
• Di Falco (SFF) – 0.7997 (+0.1139)
• Mitchell (ALP) – 0.7747 (+0.0221)
• Cameron (LIB) – 0.5789 (+0.0256)
• Goss (ALP) – 0.4574 (+0.0123)
• Farrell (ALP) – 0.4100 (+0.0100)

Casey Farrell’s preferences will likely favour the two leading Labor candidates, who don’t need the help, leaving Goss behind.

Thursday, 6:54pm – There will be no further updates today. There are seven exclusions to go in Bass, four in Braddon, two in Franklin and three in Lyons.

• The count has concluded in Clark, with Madeleine Ogilvie defeating Simon Behrakis for the second Liberal seat.
• The count in Bass still has some way to go. It looks likely that Simon Wood has beaten Chris Gatenby to be the possible fourth Liberal candidate, while Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons remain close to tied in the race for the second Labor seat. Labor will definitely win two, but if they remain close it will help Labor win a third. The Shooters candidate is in the lead but it’s likely the Labor candidates, and possibly the Liberal candidate, will get ahead of him.
• Braddon is very clear, with Roger Jaensch expected to win the fourth Liberal seat.
• Labor’s second seat has firmed up in Franklin, with Meg Brown increasing her lead over Jess Munday. Jacquie Petrusma also has a clear lead over Nic Street with one more Liberal candidate to exclude. There’s just two more exclusions should be enough to decide this contest.
• Shooters candidate Carlo Di Falco has over two thirds of a quota in Lyons, well ahead of either the third Labor candidate or the fourth Liberal. But both those parties are likely to benefit from their safer seats not being won on full quotas and thus allowing their last competitive candidate to have a larger count.

6:44pm – The exclusion of last standing Greens candidate Owen Fitzgerald in Franklin has pushed the Labor totalfrom 1.86 quotas to 1.99 quotas. The preferences were more favourable to Meg Brown than Jess Munday, extending the gap between them from 0.158 to 0.173.

6:42pm – Braddon has been of much less interest, but it’s worth noting htat the exclusion of sixth-placed Liberal candidate Stephen Parry has elected Felix Ellis. Fourth-placed Liberal Roger Jaensch is already ahead of the Greens and Shooters candidates, with one other Liberal (and Ellis’ small surplus) to distribute.

5:30pm – Sixth-placed Liberal Julie Sladden has been excluded in Bass. Simon Wood leads Chris Gatenby by just 131 votes. It’s likely two Labor candidates will be excluded next before the Wood-Gatenby contest is actually decided, but I doubt many of those preferences will leak to the Liberal ticket. So Wood looks likely to be the fourth Liberal contender.

Jess Greene leads Geoff Lyons by just 21 votes for the second Labor seat, with two other Labor candidates to be excluded. This is quite advantageous for them in winning a third seat.

The party totals now are:

• Frydrych (SFF) – 0.4054 (+0.0091)
• Razay – 0.3751 (+0.0160)
• Pentland – 0.3292 (+0.0059)
• Ball (GRN) – 0.3137 (+0.0024)
• Liberal #4 – 0.3030 (-0.0452)
• Labor #3 – 0.2582 (+0.0109)

5:04pm – Fifth-placed Liberal Richard Hallett has been excluded in Lyons. I’ve long since stopped tracking it, but Stephanie Cameron is the Liberal contender for a fourth seat. Labor candidate Shannon Campbell has been excluding, leaving four Labor candidates in the race. It’s very clear that Butler and Mitchell are the two leaders, with Richard Goss ahead of Casey Farrell for a third seat.

In the case of the Liberal Party, there is potential for a Ginninderra effect win. Third-placed Mark Shelton is on 0.82 quotas while Stephanie Cameron is on 0.55. If their votes split 1.00 and 0.37 then Cameron’s chances would be much weaker.

Labor may also benefit from a similar effect. At the moment Jen Butler leads on 0.85 quotas, Brian Mitchel lis on 0.75, Richard Goss is on 0.45, and Casey Farrell is on 0.4 exactly. It’s likely Farrell’s preferences will favour the two leading candidates, but they ultimately don’t need his preferences, so if they can stay below quota it will leave Goss with a higher vote than the party total would suggest. It could be enough to get ahead of Cameron but I think Cameron is the favourite.

The party figures are:

• Di Falco (SFF) – 0.6858 (+0.0329)
• Cameron (LIB) – 0.5533 (+0.1189)
• Labor #3 – 0.4474 (+0.0239)
• Tucker (NAT) – 0.3423 (+0.0155)

Next up we can expect the exclusion of John Tucker, likely followed by Casey Farrell. Once this is done, the race will narrow down to Di Falco, Cameron and Goss, with the third-placed candidate’s preferences electing hte other.

4:55pm – The fourth-placed Liberal Josh Garvin has been excluded in Franklin. I forgot to mention in the last post that Dean Winter had been elected as the fifth member. Petrusma’s lead over Street is growing, and Labor maintains a lead over the Liberal ticket for the final seat, even before factoring in about a quarter of a quota sitting with the Greens.

Next to be excluded will be second Green Owen Fitzgerald. In theory there’s enough of those votes to push Munday ahead of Brown but I suspect the votes will split between the two Labor candidates and plenty will exhaust. After that, I’d expect Dean Young to be excluded, then it will be clear who will get the final Labor and Liberal seats.

3:12pm – The exclusion of the fourth-placed Labor candidate in Franklin has widened the gap between Meg Brown and Jess Munday to 0.16 quotas.

There is two more low-ranking Liberal candidates to be excluded along with the second Greens candidates. The Liberal preferences will mostly flow to the other Liberals but those Greens preferences could flow to one of the Labor candidates. Still it looks likely that Brown and Petrusma will win.

3:10pm – The Clark count has concluded. Madeleine Ogilvie defeated Simon Behrakis for the final seat by 180 votes. The total was 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 2 Greens and one Kristie Johnston.

3:08pm – The third-placed Greens candidate Anne Layton-Bennett has been excluded in Bass. This pushed Cecily Rosol, and then her small surplus was distributed. The party position is:

• Frydrych (SFF) – 0.3962 (+0.0033)
• Razay – 0.3591 (+0.0049)
• Liberal #4 – 0.3482 (+0.0032)
• Pentland – 0.3233 (+0.0021)
• Greens #2 – 0.3113 (-0.0289)
• Labor #3 – 0.2473 (+0.0130)

At this point there’s just one Green left in the race, so only Liberal and Labor can suffer leakage – four Labor candidates and four Liberal candidates.

1:47pm – Greens candidate Tabatha Badger has been elected with 0.12 quota surplus in Lyons on the back of preferences from the sole remaining Greens candidate Alistair Allan. The Shooters continue to make progress but Greens preferences should help Labor next.

1:45pm – Jacquie Petrusma’s lead over Nic Street is widening as another Liberal candidate was excluded in Franklin.

1:43pm – With the distribution of Elise Archer’s final preferences, Ogilvie’s lead over Behrakis in Clark has widened to 157 votes and she will win. There is 400 surplus votes sitting with Helen Burnet that will need to be distributed but I don’t expect that to change the final result.

12:45pm – The fifth-placed Liberal has been excluded in Lyons, along with the third-placed Greens candidates and independent Michelle Dracoulis. This has significantly boosted Labor but the Shooters are a long way ahead.

The race for the final seat is:

• Di Falco (SFF) – 0.6484 (+0.0446)
• Labor #3 – 0.4007 (+0.0705)
• Liberal #4 – 0.3883 (-0.0109)
• Tucker (NAT) – 0.3232 (+0.0208)

12:42pm – In Franklin, they’ve excluded the second-placed George candidate Kirsten Bacon and the lowest-polling Liberal candidate Natasha Miller.

David O’Byrne was elected in fourth place, which is a bit of a point of pride in terms of him beating Labor leader Dean Winter, who is sitting on 0.97 quotas.

Meg Brown’s lead over Jess Munday is steady on about 0.11 quotas while the Petrusma-Street lead has widened to 0.25 quotas. The Labor lead over the Liberals has also widened.

There are two more Liberal candidates likely to be knocked out next followed by the fourth-placed Labor candidate. The Greens have about a quarter of a quota with their second candidate which should be enough to elect the last two Labor candidates.

12:38pm – The Clark count has almost finished, with third-plced Labor candidate Luke Martin excluded this morning. The TEC is nearly finished excluding Elise Archer and Madeleine Ogilvie has overtaken Simon Behrakis.

Labor and the Greens have each elected their two MPs, with Helen Burnet most recently elected with 400 votes surplus. There’s also 660 votes with Archer yet to be distributed.

The current Liberal candidates’ standings are:

• Vermey – 0.9823
• Ogilvie – 0.8550
• Behrakis – 0.8462

Ogilvie leads Behrakis by 70 votes. I’m not completely convinced she will win but she’s in the box seat now.

Thursday, 12:35pm – I’m on a long drive today but just had time for a couple of quick updates.

In Bass, the final Nationals candidate and the second-lowest polling Labor candidate have been excluded this morning.

The party positions are:

• Shooters – 0.3929 (+0.0334)
• Razay – 0.3542 (+0.0336)
• Liberal #4 – 0.3450 (+0.0455)
• Greens #2 – 0.3403 (+0.0339)
• Pentland – 0.3212 (+0.0288)
• Labor #3 – 0.2342 (-0.0140)

The Labor position is looking weak, but the second and third Labor candidates are still very even, with Greene outpolling Lyons by just 12 votes.

Wednesday, 10:32pm – There have been no further updates in Franklin and Lyons since my last updates.

10:30pm – The exclusion of fourth-placed Labor candidate John Kamara in Clark pushed Greens MP Vica Bayley over quota, so his small surplus will be the next to be distributed.

After Bayley’s exclusion, we’ll see 3113 votes from third-placed Labor candidate Luke Martin excluded, and then the 3422 votes with Elise Archer. That will be it, so I suspect it will be finished tomorrow.

Behrakis currently leads Madeleine Ogilvie by just 117 votes.

10:20pm – The final count of Wednesday in Bass saw the fourth-placed Greens candidate excluded, leaving Lauren Ball ahead of Anne Layton-Bennett. It’s likely Ball will be the last standing Greens candidate.

The position of the parties now is:

• Frydrych (SFF) – 0.3595 (+0.0019)
• Razay – 0.3207 (+0.0017)
• Greens #2 – 0.3063 (-0.0199)
• Liberal #4 – 0.2995 (+0.0019)
• Pentland – 0.2923 (+0.0009)
• Labor #3 – 0.2482 (+0.0100)

4:55pm – The seventh-placed Labor candidate, the third-placed Greens candidate and independent Angela Offord have been excluded in Lyons since my last update.

The positions of the parties now is:

• Carlo Di Falco (SFF) – 0.6038 (+0.0227)
• Liberal #4 – 0.3992 (+0.0175)
• Labor #3 – 0.3303 (+0.0345)
• John Tucker (NAT) – 0.3024 (+0.0129)

Tucker and Di Falco can’t suffer from leakage since they are the only candidates left in their tickets. Labor and Liberal can lose preferences by leakage. The only other preferences are 0.2 quotas sitting with the second-placd Greens candidate and 0.21 quotas with independent Michelle Dracoulis.

It’s hard to see Di Falco losing.

4:50pm – The third-placed Greens candidate was excluded in Franklin, and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff has been elected as the third member. We’ve also had the fifth-placed Labor candidate knocked out.

The last-placed Liberal will be knocked out next, which will give us a hint as to whether Nic Street can chase down Jacquie Petrusma (probably not).

Meg Brown has slightly widened her lead over Jess Munday for the second Labor seat.

4:48pm – Simon Behrakis’ lead over Madeleine Ogilvie remains 108 votes after the exclusion of the third-placed Greens candidate in Clark.

The only two Greens candidates left are Vica Bayley on 0.9996 quotas and Helen Burnet on 0.8667. The second and third Liberals are both on about 0.77-0.78 quotas.

The only remaining votes are 0.415 quotas with Elise Archer, and two lower-ranked Labor candidates with about 0.6 quotas between them. They should push the two Labor MPs over quota and may also help Burnet out slightly.

So I suspect Archer’s preferences will decide the second Liberal seat.

4:45pm – Since I last updated Bass, one Labor candidate and one more Greens candidate have been excluded. Lauren Ball is back in the lead for the Greens pack.

The party totals are:

• Shooters – 0.3576 (+0.0058)
• Greens #2 – 0.3263 (-0.0151)
• Razay – 0.3190 (+0.0057)
• Liberal #4 – 0.2976 (+0.0079)
• Pentland – 0.2914 (+0.0017)
• Labor #3 – 0.2383 (-0.0103)

Jess Greene has also overtaken Geoff Lyons for the second Labor seat but the two remain very close.

2:50pm – Nationals candidate Andrew Jenner was excluded in Lyons, and just 63.7% of his preferences flowed to sole remaining Nationals candidate John Tucker. The party positions now are:

• Shooters – 0.5810 (+0.0059)
• Liberal #4 – 0.3817 (+0.0082)
• Labor #3 – 0.3206 (+0.0101)
• Nationals – 0.2895 (-0.0453)

Labor did best out of the Nationals preferences, and the Shooters did the worst, but are still well in front.

Next up will be Angela Offord, an independent. Her preferences could be crucial.

2:45pm – Not much to report from Franklin, where the third-placed George candidate was just excluded.

2:43pm – Marilena Di Florio’s preferences in Clark did not break strongly for Madeleine Ogilvie in the same way as fellow Liberal Jessica Barnett. Simon Behrakis has extended his lead from 86 to 108 votes. There are no further Liberals left in the count, but there is over 3000 votes sitting with ex-Liberal independent Elise Archer. The next exclusion will be third-placed Greens candidate Janet Shelley, and there are also two also-ran Labor candidates with 2300-2600 votes each.

2:38pm – I had missed that Liberal MP Michael Ferguson had crossed the quota in the last count in Bass, the third to be elected. He had a surplus of just 2 votes so the last round did nothing. But now there are a number of Greens candidates on the verge of being excluded.

I had missed that the exclusion of Jack Fittler had pushed Anne Layton-Bennett into the lead as the second-placed Greens candidate. Lauren Ball, who led on primary votes, is close to falling behind Charlene McLennan too. This bears no relationship to the order of candidates the Greens published. The official number-2 candidate Charlene McLennan is currently in fourth place.

1:54pm – The exclusion of seventh-placed Liberal candidate Bree Groves in Lyons has increased the SFF lead over the Liberal.

• Shooters – 0.5751 (+0.0017)
• Liberal #4 – 0.3735 (-0.0108)
• Nationals – 0.3348 (+0.0009)
• Labor #3 – 0.3104 (+0.0048)

Nationals candidate Andrew Jenner will be excluded next, which will leave John Tucker as the sole Nationals candidate, but I expect there will be some substantial leakage.

1:50pm – Seventh-placed Liberal candidate Sarah Quaile has been excluded in Bass and it has produced some leakage from the Liberal ticket:

• Shooters – 0.3518 (+0.0013)
• Greens #2 – 0.3413 (+0.0015)
• Razay – 0.3133 (+0.0007)
• Liberal #4 – 0.2898 (-0.0117)
• Pentland – 0.2897 (+0.0018)
• Labor #3 – 0.2486 (+0.0052)

Labor has actually done best from this leakage.

A few Greens candidates should be excluded soon, and the leakage will give us a sense of whether the Greens can stay in the race.

1:44pm – Liberal candidate Jessica Barnett was just excluded in Clark and it made a big difference to the race for the second Liberal seat. Almost half of her votes went to Ogilvie, with much less going to Behrakis. This has narrowed the gap between them from 538 votes to 86 votes.

• Vermey – 0.8160 (+0.0192)
• Behrakis – 0.7072 (+0.0296)
• Ogilvie – 0.6965 (+0.0861)

There’s reason here to think there’s some gender-based voting. Ogilvie and fourth-placed Liberal Marilena Di Florio did much better on Barnett’s preferences than their male colleagues. And Di Florio will be excluded next, which should tell us a lot of what we need to know about who will win that seat. Although Elise Archer’s 3,226 votes may also be quite crucial to deciding that race.

1:06pm – The lowest-polling Labor candidate and the third lowest-polling Greens candidate have now been excluded in Lyons.

The state of the parties now is:

• Shooters – 0.5734 (+0.0035)
• Liberal #4 – 0.3843 (+0.0056)
• Nationals – 0.3339 (+0.0018)
• Labor #3 – 0.3056 (-0.0026)

1:01pm – The exclusion of the last ungrouped candidate in Franklin has now taken place, while another Labor and Greens candidate have also been excluded.

The key splits are:

• Brown (ALP) over Munday – 0.1071 (+0.0034)
• Petrusma (LIB) over Street – 0.2350 (+0.0011)
• Labor #2 – 0.8522 (+0.0044)
• Liberal #3 – 0.7836 (+0.0141)

12:56pm – One more candidate has been excluded for Labor and the Greens each in Clark. This doesn’t really make much difference to the Behrakis-Ogilvie race, but Liberal candidate Jessica Barnett will be excluded next, which could be critical.

12:49pm – Ungrouped independent Jack Davenport and Nationals candidate Carl Cooper have both been excluded in Bass. The two Nationals were very close in number so there wasn’t much in deciding which one would come out ahead. Most of the Nationals preferences flowed to the other Nationals candidate, while Davenport’s preferences strongly flowed to Rebekah Pentland as the last ungrouped independent.

This is the state of the contest between the parties:

• Shooters – 0.3505 (+0.0069)
• Greens #2 – 0.3398 (+0.0174)
• Razay – 0.3126 (+0.0125)
• Liberal #4 – 0.3016 (+0.0077)
• Pentland – 0.2880 (+0.0431)
• Labor #3 – 0.2434 (+0.0088)

The Liberals and Shooters did worst from the last two exclusions.

11:20am – Two more independents and two low-polling Greens candidates have been excluded in Lyons. In the race for the seventh seat, the party positions are:

• Shooters – 0.5699 (+0.0126)
• Liberal #4 – 0.3787 (+0.0118)
• Nationals – 0.3321 (+0.0105)
• Labor #3 – 0.3082 (+0.0199)

Stephanie Cameron’s lead over Richard Hallett for the third Liberal seat has widened slightly to 0.0707 quotas.

11:14am – Another Greens candidate, another George candidate and the first Labor candidate have been excluded in Franklin.

The gap between Labor and Liberal has shrunk slightly from 0.085 quotas to 0.078. Meg Brown’s lead over Jess Munday has also shrunk from 0.114 to 0.104.

11:09am – One more ungrouped independent and one Liberal candidate have been excluded in Clark. The exclusion of Edwin Johnstone has started to give us information on how the various Liberals will do. This shows the quotas for the three competing Liberals and their change compared to last night:

• Vermey – 0.7963 (+0.0455)
• Behrakis – 0.6751 (+0.0230)
• Ogilvie – 0.6089 (+0.0372)

So the gap between Behrakis and Ogilvie has shrunk from 0.080 to 0.066.

11:03am – Two more independents have been excluded in Braddon, but nothing much has changed.

Wednesday, 11:00am – One more independent and the two lowest-polling Greens candidates in Bass have now been excluded. The party positions now are:

• Shooters – 0.3436
• Greens #2 – 0.3223
• Razay – 0.3002
• Liberal #4 – 0.2939
• Pentland – 0.2449
• Labor #3 – 0.2346

The Greens have understandably lost about 0.0143 quotas from leakage. Everyone has picked up ground since last night, with Pentland and Labor picking up the most.

Tuesday, 10:23pm – Seven candidates have been excluded in Lyons: three minor Nationals, and four ungrouped independents. The Shooters’ lead over the Liberal Party has been widening from 0.179 on the primary vote to 0.190 on the last count. The Shooters cannot lose votes to leakage, but the Liberals undoubtedly will.

10:08pm – Five candidates have been excluded in Franklin, all low-polling candidates in the Greens and Peter George tickets, although the lowest-polling Labor candidate is next to go out tomorrow morning. Labor’s lead over the Liberals has widened slightly as Labor has gained leakage from the Greens and Peter George, but the bigger test will be when the second-ranked candidate on each ticket is excluded.

As far as the intra-party contests, Petrusma’s lead over Street is steady. Brown’s lead over Munday has widened slightly.

10:01pm – The count is progressing more quickly in Clark, where there are fewer candidates running. Two Labor candidates, three Greens candidates and one Liberal candidate have been excluded, along with two ungrouped independents.

The two leading Labor candidates Ella Haddad and Josh Willie are both neck-and-neck and should both comfortably win. Vica Bayley and Helen Burnet have a bit more of an imbalance between the but there is 1.85 quotas sitting with the Greens ticket, with Burnet on 0.68 – a long way ahead of a third Liberal.

The most interesting story is the Liberal race, with the lowest-polling Liberal now out of the race. Simon Behrakis’ lead over Madeleine Ogilvie has remained around 0.08 quotas for the entire count.

9:54pm – The race in Braddon remains very clear with eight minor candidates having been excluded. Labor is still close to two quotas, while the Liberal Party is on about 3.9 quotas. Craig Garland is creeping closer to a quota too. In the intra-party race, Felix Ellis is clearly winning while Roger Jaensch is far ahead of his colleagues for the fourth Liberal seat.

9:46pm – I’m now updating the figures with the final figures for Tuesday. In Bass, two candidates have been elected (Bridget Archer and Janie Finlay) and three ungrouped candidates have been excluded. The Liberal ticket is now on 3.29 quotas, while Labor is on 2.22 quotas. The Liberal Party has been extending its lead slightly after the lead was cut significantly by the distribution of Archer’s surplus. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are now on 0.34 quotas – there is only one SFF candidate, so he won’t lose any votes to leakage. The party’s total will keep growing until and unless he is knocked out.

2:52pm – The surplus for Jane Howlett has been distributed in Lyons, and they have started knocking out the low-polling candidates. The gap between Stephanie Cameron and Richard Hallett for the third Liberal seat has shrunk slightly but otherwise not much has changed.

2:47pm – The minor candidates have started to be excluded in Franklin: the lowest-polling of Peter George’s candidates first, and up next is the lowest-polling Greens candidate. Nothing much to report there.

2:30pm – The exclusion of John Macgowan in Clark has changed little.

2:27pm – The distribution of Gavin Pearce’s surplus in Braddon has pushed Ellis to 0.83 and Jaensch to 0.47 without leaking too much from the Liberal ticket.

1:52pm – In the electorate of Franklin, independent Peter George was elected first. George ran a full ticket of seven candidates but there was enormous leakage – only 34% of his preferences stayed within the group.

Almost half of George’s surplus flowed straight to Rosalie Woodruff, pushing her from 0.78 to 0.88 quotas. This puts the whole Greens ticket on 1.199 quotas, while Labor is on 1.841.

This doesn’t really change much but strengthens the certainty that Labor will win two and the Liberals will fall short of winning a third seat. The Greens have about 0.2 quotas of surplus, and the remaining six George group independents are also on about 0.2 quotas. Those should favour Labor over Liberal.

One other funny point is that Eric Abetz was 17 votes short of a quota on primary votes, and he picked up 19 preferences from Peter George, electing him to the second seat. Abetz’s surplus will be distributed next, but it will only be worth 2 votes, and will come from the 19 George-Abetz votes.

1:41pm – In the electorate of Clark, independent Kristie Johnston’s 0.2-quota surplus was distributed first. This is a count of particular interest since Johnston has no other candidates in her ticket. About 0.082 quotas went to the Greens, about 0.037 to Labor, about 0.056 to independent Elise Archer and just 0.011 quotas to the Liberal ticket.

At a party total level, this pushes the Greens from 1.76 quotas to 1.85.

The biggest unknown in Clark now is who will win the second Liberal seat. Very few votes flowed tom Johnston to the Liberal ticket, but Ogilvie gained slightly more than Behrakis, but Behrakis still leads by 0.08 quotas.

1:33pm – In the electorate of Lyons, Liberal candidate Guy Barnett was elected first, but with only a very small surplus. His colleague Jane Howlett was just 22 votes short of a quota, so his surplus has elected her. She now has a surplus of 172 votes, and those will be distributed next. That shouldn’t take too long. After that, they’ll start knocking out the lowest-ranked candidates.

1:30pm – In the electorate of Braddon, Jeremy Rockliff’s enormous surplus has now been distributed. There has been some understandable leakage from the Liberal ticket, about 5.9%, but they are still on 3.89 quotas so should still win the four seats.

The most interesting consequences are within the Liberal ticket. Gavin Pearce gained the most preferences, pushing him to 1.11 quotas and electing him as the second member. Felix Ellis has also been boosted to 0.78 quotas and Roger Jaensch to 0.44 quotas. This is enough to elect Ellis as the third Liberal and Jaensch is looking very solid for the fourth Liberal seat.

As no Labor candidate has reached quota yet, Pearce’s surplus will be distributed next.

1:27pm – In the electorate of Bass, the second count saw the distribution of Bridget Archer’s 0.55-quota surplus. Unsurprisingly, quite a few of these votes leaked out of the Liberal ticket (about 11%). The biggest beneficiaries were Michael Ferguson and Rob Fairs, which is also unfortunate since they are in the least need of those preferences. Ferguson is now on 0.967 quotas and Fairs is on 0.59.

In the race for the fourth Liberal seat, Simon Wood has widened the gap over Julie Sladden, and indeed Chris Gatenby overtook Sladden. Wood is on 0.228 quotas while Sladden is on 0.187 and Gatenby is on 0.202.

The total Liberal vote has dropped from 3.34 quotas to 3.28, while the Labor vote has climbed from 2.20 to 2.22. The SFF vote is on 0.333, while the Greens are on 1.331.

Geoff Lyons has slightly extended his lead over Jess Greene for the second Labor seat, but only very slightly.

Tuesday 29 July, 1:21pm – The final postal votes were added to the count in the Tasmanian state election this morning, and the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) has commenced the process of distributing preferences.

I’ll be using this live blog as a chance to post updates as the counts progress. Although I will be driving to Canberra tomorrow and back to Sydney on Thursday, so there will be big breaks in my updates during that time.

For this first post I’m going to quickly summarise changes that have taken place in the primary vote count between when I published this blog post on Tuesday last week and the end of the count today. I have updated the charts in that post with the final primary vote figures, so I won’t bother reposting them there.

In Bass, Geoff Lyons has gained a slight lead on Jess Greene. Sitting Liberal MP Simon Wood has increased his lead against Julie Sladden, and the Greens have gone backwards slightly. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers also lost a small amount of ground.

There was nothing of significance to report in Braddon.

In Clark, Madeleine Ogilvie has narrowed the primary vote gap against her colleague and rival Simon Behrakis, from 0.11 quotas last week to 0.08 at the end of the count.

In Franklin, Labor MP Meg Brown has slightly extended her lead on Jess Munday. Liberal MP Jacquie Petrusma has significantly widened her lead against Nic Street for the second Liberal seat, from 0.19 quotas to 0.23 quotas.

In Lyons, Jane Howlett fell just below a quota, which should speed up the count since her primary votes won’t need to be distributed as a tiny surplus. She will still be elected almost immediately (indeed she already has by time of publishing this).

Mark Shelton has increased his lead on the other Liberals for the third Liberal spot. Casey Farrell has fallen into fourth place amongst the Labor candidates.

SFF candidate Carlo Di Falco has also lost a small amount of ground.

That’s it for this introductory post. We now have the first distribution for Bass, Braddon and Lyons so I’ll post them shortly.