Ben was joined by Sarah Cameron from Griffith University, to discuss the results of the 2025 Australian Election Study, including Peter Dutton’s unpopularity, foreign policy, voter dealignment, and how the vote splits by gender, generation and whether people own their own home.
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Great Podcast Ben
i enjoyed the ones that you did last time on the AES, Ecological Fallacy and Measuring voting patterns over generations. This podcast ties into much of the same themes. I look forward to looking into the AES study in detail including differences in homeownership among millenials, the comment on 17% Primary for Greens among private rentals was interesting and i look forward to look at social housing residents and their voting patterns.
Also reduced % of people who see China as a threat from 2022 is something that was interesting as well but makes sense and ties have improved recently.
The observation that millennials shifting to the left in the past 10 years is interesting. Turnbull was the most popular Liberal leader post-Howard. 2016 was the last time the Coalition got more millennial primary votes than Labor.
The 2019 was a pivotal moment. This was an election where franking credits, negative gearing, coal mining (Adani Carmichael) among others were election issues. Older generations (Gen X, Baby Boomers, Silent Generation) swung towards the Coalition strongly. Millennials swung away from the Coalition strongly and to Labor and the Greens, presumably because they were less likely to own shares and more likely to be cocnerned by climate change and getting onto the property ladder.
Good point Votante – though it may also have been wrapped up in the effect of a Liberal Party getting rid of Turnbull and installing Morrison, and not specifically policy related – or a bot of both
Good interview but yet another example of attributing the reasons for apparent tactical voting of Labor and Greens voters for IND candidates as being down to “voting for candidates with a better chance of defeating the coalition candidate”
Such a shame that this underlying assumption is incorrect…, or at least not universally correct and therefore unable to be relied upon as a given (See Kooyong 2025 and Bradfield 2025)
A question on the gender divide on the issue of Trump himself might’ve been revealing.
Dutton walked into a brick wall with his eyes wide open there, Labor Influencers had been pushing the line Trump=Dutton since the New Year, Dutton kept insisting he was better to deal with Trump right up to May 3. Facepalm.
In contrast, Crisafulli was promoting Quad meetings in Qld yesterday, asked if he is a Trump fan, he deflected that he is a United States fan.
So, LNP have learnt something from the federal trainwreck but it was a hard lesson.
Gympie, I agree Dutton was seen as a pseudo-Trump figure just like Pierre Poilievre in Canada as leader of the Conservative party there and caused the LNP to suffer a wipeout at the federal level. But at a state level, many voters may not be that attentive to world/international politics.
Also, Crisafulli has generally moderated his position and tried to stay clear from the anti-woke, culture war style rhetoric even though some of his own party colleagues are trying to push that sort of agenda. I do agree that some recent events like the controversy surrounding the puberty blocker ban are likely to work against the LNP and prevent them from winning re-election comfortably (possibly even causing them to lose seats and be forced into minority).
Yoh An, Pierre Poilievre in Canada as leader of the Conservative party there was defeated because 90 other candidates were allowed to run in his seat [and a few other Conservative Party seats].
He’s since returned in a Byelection where he faced 214 other candidates on the ballot paper.
Agree that while Crisafulli is doing his best at avoiding the Culture War madness, it will ensnare him anyway. Apart from the unraveling Trump disaster, the LNP will probably take up the cudgels on the wrong side of the TransWomen debate and they’re likely to be wedged on Abortion before the next election too.
an empire toppled by its enemies can rise again.