Results prediction open thread

Today's blog post will be short. I'm creating this as an open thread to make your predictions about how the result will go.I'll be back with an open thread for election day tomorrow and there will be a liveblog on the night, although I...

Early voting update

I thought it was about time to do another update of the early voting statistics.As of the end of Wednesday, 3.87 million people had cast a pre-poll vote. This compares to 3.52 million as of the same point in 2019, and a cumulative total...

Take a look at the Senate

As is always the case, the election campaign has been very much focused on the House of Representatives. But there are some interesting potential outcomes in the Senate.In short, I think the Coalition is in danger of losing a senate seat in at least...

Podcast #74: The final countdown

Ben is joined this week by Jill Sheppard and Peter Brent to discuss the state of the campaign, long term voting trends and the seat of Dickson in Queensland.This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile...

Historic election trends between the states

One of the big questions at this election is how the result will play out in each state. Labor has performed poorly in Queensland and Western Australia but is hoping to pick up ground there.For this post I wanted to examine the historic record...

Which seats swing the most?

Last month I posted an analysis looking at how much seats have moved in terms of their two-party-preferred rank, relative to every other seat in the country. Matt Cowgill on Twitter suggested I also look at the average size of swings in each seat...

Early voting update

Today is the fourth day of pre-poll voting, and it seemed like a good time to check in on how many people have voted so far.Postal vote applications continue to grow, and the total is currently 56% above the level at this time in...

Shaking out bias in the election night count

In Monday's blog post, I ran through the data on the rate at which election results come in on election night: the rate in each state, how timezones explain some of that variety, the national trend for the three kinds of votes counted on...

Podcast #73: The Australian Polling Council

We return again today to the polls, talking to two more pollsters from some of Australia's biggest political polls: Campbell White from YouGov/Newspoll and Mark Davis from Ipsos. We discuss the formation of the Australian Polling Council and what has changed since 2019.YouGov's...

The election night time curve

I think those of us who have followed a lot of Australian elections have some instinctive sense of how election night progresses - when we should expect results to come in, and how quickly they do so.But I thought I would dive into the...