The Tally Room

Thursday 8:55am - I should probably make one more post here with now that the AEC has finished their 2CP count. Labor's Basem Abdo is on 55.08%, which is a comfortable victory after a lot of doubt. Here is the final version of the chart...

For today I've got two maps, covering five seats in mid-suburban Sydney. While these seats are adjacent to each other, I'm keeping them as separate maps because the dynamics in these seats are different. The first map shows Bennelong, Parramatta and Reid. The second...

The two-candidate-preferred count in Bradfield has finished, with teal independent Nicolette Boele finally taking the lead right at the end, thanks to a very strong batch of postal votes and also a favourable batch of pre-poll ballots. The AEC website says that there are 59...

For today's booth map of the day I've gone to Calwell, the most complex seat of 2025. This booth map shows the primary vote for Labor, Liberal and the two leading independents, and swings for Labor and Liberal. The major parties lost primary votes pretty...

There's been a lot of discussion in the last few days about the merit of Australia's electoral system. In response to some conservative attacks on our preferential system, sometimes implicitly or explicitly suggesting a first-past-the-post system would be somehow more legitimate. In response to that,...

Tasmania flew under the radar in the lead up to the recent election, because of the lack of state polling in Tasmania. It was a "known unknown" to quote Donald Rumsfeld, and I do remember commenting that we didn't know how things were going...

My last few booth maps have been focused on the non-classic races - the Greens in Melbourne, and the teals in Melbourne, Sydney and Perth. But a big part of the story was Labor routing the Coalition in traditional urban marginal seats, particularly those...

In 2022 I wrote a blog post where I explained the phenomenon of the AEC needing to do more distribution of preferences before declaring election results, and thus needing longer to complete this process. We now have updated information for 2025, and can see...

For today's blog post, I thought I'd wrap up the remaining urban teal contests in Sydney and Perth. To start with, this map shows the seats of Wentworth, Mackellar, Warringah and Bradfield. The first three have incumbent independents running for re-election, while the fourth had...

For today's booth map we're staying in Melbourne but heading slightly south-east, to look at the two incumbent teal MPs in Melbourne: Zoe Daniel's seat of Goldstein and Monique Ryan's seat of Kooyong. Daniel was defeated in Goldstein, while Ryan narrowly held on in...