It has barely been two weeks since the no confidence motion passed, and just over a week since the Tasmanian state election has been called, but the candidates are coming out of the woodwork very quickly.
I have now updated my election guide to feature those candidates announced so far.
The Liberal Party and Labor have now announced a full slate of 35 candidates. The Liberals finished announcing their ticket this afternoon, when they announced their last four candidates for Clark.
The Greens have only announced one non-incumbent candidate – Vanessa Bleyer is their lead candidate in Braddon, the only electorate to not elect a Greens member in 2024. It appears that all of their incumbents are recontesting.
As for independents, four of the six independents have announced they are running as independents. Former JLN members Miriam Beswick and Andrew Jenner are both apparently seeking Nationals preselection, as is former MP John Tucker. I haven’t included them in my candidate list until preselection is resolved. I am assuming Beswick and Jenner will definitely run, either as independents or as Nationals. It’s hard to imagine both running for the same party.
Only one sitting MP is retiring: that is the sitting Speaker, Michelle O’Byrne. O’Byrne is the first MP to retire at the election since 2018. Retirements at elections are rare because it is relatively simple to resign mid-term and hand your seat to a party colleague through a countback. The last two parliamentary terms saw four seats change hands mid-term, but it has only happened once this term, when Rebecca White resigned earlier this year to successfully contest the federal seat of Lyons in May. But this reduced number is understandable considering the very short term.
I won’t analyse every new candidate announced, but it is fascinating to see so many former federal MPs running.
It is not uncommon in Tasmanian politics for former federal MPs to find a more stable and long-lasting career in state politics. Both Michael Ferguson and Michelle O’Byrne switched to the state electorate of Bass after losing the federal seat of the same name. The fact that federal and state electorates share boundaries can’t hurt either. But there are a lot this year.
Indeed three of the five people who were Tasmanian members of the House of Representatives prior to last month’s federal election are contesting the state election. Labor’s Brian Mitchell and Liberal Gavin Pearce both retired voluntarily, but are returning to run in Lyons and Braddon respectively. Bridget Archer’s tenure ended by the will of the voters, but she’s following the storied tradition of former Bass MPs popping up in state elections.
There are also three former Liberal senators running on the Liberal ticket: sitting MHAs Eric Abetz and Guy Barnett, and former Senate president Stephen Parry, who failed in his bid to win the Legislative Council seat of Montgomery last month.
Both major parties are looking to pick up extra seats to have any chance of forming a majority government or even a more stable minority government, so running former federal MPs seems an easy way to add name recognition.
Numerous independents have popped up in addition to incumbents. Former Liberal minister Elise Archer is running in Clark and Peter George is running in Franklin after coming second in the federal election, amongst others.
