Western Australia 2025

Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2025 Western Australian state election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2021 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.

Most of this election guide is only available to people who chip in $5 or more per month via Patreon, but a small selection have been unlocked for free access. The free guides are listed further down this page.

Table of contents:

  1. Legislative Assembly seat profiles
  2. Legislative Council profile
  3. Free samples
  4. Contact

Legislative Assembly seat profiles

Seat profiles have been produced for all 59 Legislative Assembly electoral districts.

You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.

You can also use the following map to click on any lower house seat, and then click through to the relevant guide.

Legislative Council profile

The Western Australian Legislative Council is elected using a system of proportional representation.

Up until 2021, the Council was elected from six regions, with each region electing six members. The new Council in 2025 will consist of 37 members elected at large, with all members representing the whole sttae.

This guide includes a history of the Legislative Council, a list of sitting MLCs, list of winnable candidates, 2021 results and assessment of the parties’ chances.

Read more

Free samples

Most of this election guide is only available to people who chip in $5 or more per month via Patreon, but a small selection have been unlocked for free access:


If you have a correction or an update for a single electorate page, feel free to post a comment. You can also send an email by using this form.

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    1. I’m expect seats like Warren-Blackwood, Churchlands and Nedlands to return to the Liberals those electorates particularly Churchlands and Nedlands are the sort of once in a life time blip.

    2. Prediction at this stage:

      ALP 36, LIB 15, NAT 6, 2 OTH

      Lib gains: Churchlands, Bateman, Riverton, Bicton, Kalamunda, Darling Range, Carine, Mindarie, Kingsley, Jandakot, Kalgoorlie, Murray Wellington, Balcatta.

      Nat gains: Warren-Blackwood and Geraldton

      Oth gains: Fremantle gained by Greens, possible Independent or Green win in Nedlands.

      Too close to call/highly contested: Maylands (ALP v GRN), Mount Lawley (ALP v LIB v GRN), Perth (ALP v GRN), South Perth (ALP, LIB, IND), Joondalup (ALP v LIB), Swan Hills (ALP v LIB).

    3. I live in the electorate of Fremantle. I wouldn’t write off the Greens winning here but it would be very unlikely at least at the next election. The margin is just too big to overcome and Lib preferences isn’t guaranteed.

      A high profile candidate like Scott Ludlam would make things interesting though.

      Maylands and Perth will probably become a LAB v GRN contest for the long term though.

    4. @CG what is your reasoning behind Nedlands? I don’t see anything to indicate anything other than an easy lib gain.

    5. @Mostly,

      Nedlands seems to progressive, inner-city much like Prahran or Maiwar to elect a Liberal under the current political climate. But WA Labor has lost a lot of residents like local issues such as infill and developments. A teal independent or Greens campaign would pick up alot of support here.

      I think Liberals would have had a better chance if Zak Kirkup was the Liberal candidate though.

    6. The live sheep export ban is gonna hit the state govt hard here especially in rural and regional districts

    7. @CG i think the libs or nats will get Albany, Kalgoorlie, Dawesville. and make serious inroads in Pilbara, Kimberley, Collie-Preston, Bunbury, Swan Hills, Wanneroo and Butler due to the live sheep export ban. other inner city seats may fall or become marginal and fall in 2029 when i think the libs will return to government. we could see the red wall on the mainland turn to a blue wall by 2030.

    8. Nedlands, Scarborough and South Perth should also flip. so by my reckoning libs could get anywhere uup to 27 seats. however not enough for govt it would be a serious blow to the labor state and indeed the federal govt

    9. I do agree with the idea that labor is going to get obliterated in regional seats but I don’t think the regional issues are going to cut through as far in Perth

    10. I think the Libs will regain all their 2017-held seats except Hillarys; seats like Hillarys, Kingsley, Jandakot, and Joondalup will likely be marginal, but survive due to the sophomore surge withstanding the correction swing and/or have popular Labor MPs. The Nats regain all lost seats including Albury.

    11. I suspect it will look a bit like the 2015 NSW state election.

      Also, @Ian, the last Nationals MP for Albany was Leonard Hill. He served from 1936 until 1956 (20 years is quite a long time in office by the way), back when it was the Country Party. The Liberals on the other hand only lost it in 2001 but haven’t gotten it back yet. Despite that I think the Liberals should be able to regain it this time.

      I was quite surprised in 2013 when Labor lost Perth (an inner-city seat which had a margin of 7.7%) to the Liberals yet not only did Peter Watson retain Albany for Labor but he even bucked the statewide swing against Labor and actually slightly increased his margin (in 2008 the margin was 0.2% and in 2013 it was 52.0%, a swing of 1.8% to Labor). 2013 was a landslide win for the Coalition, with the Liberals winning an outright majority and thus having enough seats to form government with the support of the Nationals (though they continued to have the Nationals’ support).

      To make things even more odd, 2013 was the year Labor lost a landslide to the Coalition on the federal level, with Tony Abbott beating Kevin Rudd after he replaced Julia Gillard. WA had a Coalition government since 2008 (a year after John Howard’s Coalition lost to Kevin Rudd’s Labor Party at the 2007 federal election) and since then WA had a big resources boom and WA had one of its best ever economies (in 2013 the WA economy had a higher net increase than anywhere else in Australia), combined with an unpopular Labor government that had Julia Gillard in it with the confidence and supply of the Greens who made her introduce a carbon tax which was very unpopular. The local anger over federal Labor’s carbon tax and the state economy being in great shape partially (again, partially due to a resources boom) combined with Albany being the most marginal seat in WA should’ve been enough for the Liberals win Albany in 2013, so either the Liberals didn’t campaign that well in Albany or Peter Watson must’ve been a very popular MP.

      What’s interesting with Perth in 2013 though is that not only did the Labor vote decrease a lot but so did the Greens vote. This is despite it being an inner-city seat.

    12. Interestingly though in 2017 and 2021 there were double-digit swings to Labor on a TPP basis across WA in two historic landslides under Mark McGowan but Labor only had single-digit TPP swings to them in Albany on both occasions (+4.1% in 2017 (Labor vs National) and +7.8% in 2021 (Labor vs Liberal), note that Peter Watson retired in 2021 and was succeeded by Rebecca Stephens).

    13. @ Nether Portal
      Agree Peter Watson was a popular MP so hard to dislodge a bit like Leon Bignell in SA or Joe Helper previously in Victoria. These regional MPs are often notoriously hard to dislodge and that is why Geraldton may not be an easy pick up if the incumbent Labor MP has worked hard.

    14. Sorry NP, I meant the Libs would win Albany and I think Nats preference leakage helped Labor retain it in 2013. The WA Libs and Nats shouldn’t run in the same seats to eliminate preference leakage and to form a coalition government after 2029.

    15. @Ian yeah the very tiny amount of Nationals preferences that leaked allowed Labor to win since the combined Coalition primary vote was 49.5% which is obviously enough to win.

    16. And I agree they shouldn’t be running in the same seats as each other but it’s too late now since the Nationals have already fielded candidates in seats the Liberals are contesting. Strangely enough they’re even contesting some seats in Perth for the first time, and I don’t just mean outer-suburban seats with some semi-rural suburbs (they’ve contested those before), I mean entirely metropolitan seats like South Perth (a blue-ribbon seat that the Liberals narrowly lost to Labor in 2021).

    17. @Nimalan Geraldton is a Coalition heartland though. I expect either the Liberals or the Nationals to regain Geraldton.

    18. @ NP
      Prior to 2008 Labor held Geraldton. It was really one vote one value that hurt Labor since. I would say Geraldton is like Albany demographically a regional city.

    19. @Nimalan true.

      @John I agree since it contains a lot of agricultural land.

      Anyway I’m mostly looking at the UK right now.

    20. The live sheep export ban could severly harm labor at both a state and federal level in 2025. And be in even worse in 28-29

    21. @John the problem is a live sheep export ban would only be a major issue for farmers and people in rural areas. Labor doesn’t hold any agricultural rural seats since most of WA’s agriculture comes from the Wheatbelt which is very Nationals-voting so it won’t have a huge effect.

    22. @nether portal your forgetting places like Bunbury, Collie-Preston, Albany, Kalgoorlie, Kimberley, Pilbara, Geraldton, WArren-Blackwood, Bunbury theres also the fact that WA voters in general will see this an attack on them as a whole as they tend to support their farmers at least in the regional areas i know they do.

    23. @John most of those areas either aren’t Labor-held usually or are not agricultural rural. I grew up in an agricultural rural area and Labor never came close to winning anything there. Because in agricultural rural areas the Nationals (or in some cases the Liberals depending on who the MP/candidate is) already win booths easily. In some of them Labor finish second to One Nation, an independent or even (in some cases) the Greens.

      * Bunbury is a city that’s nearly as big as Bundaberg
      * Collie-Preston definitely has some agricultural areas but Collie is the main town there and it’s a very industrial town much like Broken Hill, though Broken Hill is trending towards the Nationals and I expect that they’ll win booths there in 2025
      * Geraldton usually votes Liberal or National anyway plus it’s a city (though it is surrounded by rural areas) about as big as Dubbo or Orange
      * Kalgoorlie, like Geraldton, is a city surrounded by rural areas, and it’s about as big as Dubbo or Orange, but it usually votes Liberal or National anyway
      * Kimberley isn’t really agricultural since it’s a mix of tropical and arid, plus Broome for some reason has a high Labor vote, plus there are many Indigenous communities up there that have traditionally voted for Labor (though they are trending to the Coalition, and that’s not just a WA thing, it’s happening everywhere)
      * Pilbara is a battleground seat and while it does have some agriculture a lot of it isn’t very agricultural since it’s in the desert (in parts of WA and SA the Outback extends to the coast), and they farm a lot more cattle in the Outback than they do sheep because it’s really hot up there
      * Warren-Blackwood is usually a Nationals seat and it was the most shocking Labor gain at the 2021 state election, it’s definitely going back to the Nationals one way or another and it’s not going back to Labor ever again

      Regardless of whether Labor supports or opposes live export bans they still won’t win booths in agricultural rural areas. While obviously supporting farmers and the regions is important it’s not something that people in the city care enough about to influence their vote (unless maybe they work as a butcher or a chef since they would rely a lot on farmers for their supply of meat).

    24. @np as someone who was born and grew up in and around bunbury i can tell you they do have farms and people who will be swayed by this and they dont like the govt attacking their farmers

    25. the other thing about collie its hard labor vote is built around the coal mines that power the coal fired power stations that will be closing therefore that vote will break up as people move to find work elsewhere and if the coalition brings nuclear power there that will more then likely sway the votes away from labor

    26. @John while it may have farms (even Sydney has farms), those farmers will likely already vote for the Coalition or for conservative minor parties. If they voted Labor last time then they’ll come back anyway.

    27. @NP i dont think bunbury can swing enough this tim but i imagine by the 2029 election it will back to being a liberal seat. the coalition will make serious inroads into labor in 2025 without morrison, covid or mcgowan. libs will win the 2029 election you heard t here first

    28. Punch seems to be popular still so I think he’ll retain rather easily. In terms of Collie Preston it will certainly swing hard but the sentiment I’m seeing out of Collie regarding the power stations isn’t completely anger (seems many residents saw it as inevitable) if Collie Preston falls, and I doubt it will it will be because of Labor’s other unpopular policies regarding regional areas and the cost of living in Eaton.

    29. @mostly i dont think it will fall in 2025 but if the libs can get a big enough swing in 2025 they should be able to ride the change of govt in 2029 and win the seat

    30. The last Liberal member for Bunbury was John Castrilli who served from 2005 until 2017 (when he retired).

      On federal results Bunbury would’ve narrowly been won by the Liberals. Nola Marino is the Liberal MP for Forrest which includes Bunbury. The swings agains the Liberals in the Bunbury booths were between –10% and –15%, so above not only Forrest’s average but above WA’s huge state average swing against the Coalition on the statewide TPP which was –10.55%.


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