Victorian federal redistribution – final margins

Thank you for your work Ben. I love it.

all boundaries are now final. will be interesting to see if albo goes after the qld election

There should be fixed 4 year term elections. The Albanese government was elected may 2022 and should go to an election in approx may 25. I am sure it will be so

Is anyone else not that impressed by these boundaries, maybe i’m not been practical enough or we’ve been spoilt with boundaries in recent years that have to change due to each division needing to contain a greater amount of people but i think if some of these boundaries continue we might see a bigger push for expanding the house.
Melbourne: Don’t really see the point of losing Fitzroy North and adding South Yarra unless Wills needed voters (although it did contract a little bit). I guess South Yarra had to move due to Higgin abolition and didn’t quite fit in with other seats, don’t think it would’ve been too out of place in Macnamara though.

Macnamara: Thought this would be a good chance to fix the tail with Higgins abolition but it might’ve got skipped over with other worries such as the eastern Melbourne boundaries.

Menzies: Really don’t see the point in removing North Warrandyte and adding it to Jagajaga, it doesn’t provide a large amount of voters to fix any quota issues and is only really connected to Eltham, Research and Kangaroo Ground. It’s a satellite suburb of Warrandyte and shares many interests with the suburb of Warrandyte.
Box Hill and Blackburn make sense with Doncaster and Warrandyte and Doncaster make sense but i don’t think Box and Hill, Blackburn and Warrandyte make too much sense, i guess this is the result of larger divisions though and there’s not much else they can do.

Deakin: Park Orchards fits in well with most of the seat, not sure how well it fits in with the suburbs south of the Eastlink though.
Not a massive fan of splitting Donvale although the two sides are a bit different i guess in terms of feel.
This seat will be intersting because it’s added strong liberal areas in Park Orchards and Donvale but the margin hasn’t changed, i guess they’re not as populated as other suburbs maybe but Sukkar should be safe if he gets swings in these area and minimises swings against in other areas.

Casey: Wonga Park been with Chirnside Park makes sense, been in the same division as the rest of the seat not so much. Does seem like a hard area to do boundaries for though.

Chisolm: Not too sure about this, can anyone let me know if Malvern East and Glen Iris make sense been in the same seat as Glen Waverley.

@north east I think big has about 1/2 a chance of regaining it’s 39th seat after the next election so that would be a good time to fix them up

I don’t have too much of a problem with Malvern East, Glen Iris and Glen Waverley being in the same seat because they are all along the Glen Waverley Line corridor. Generally I think seats focused on a particular train line work pretty well.

Of course, Hotham is a different story. While it’s focused on the Pakenham/Cranbourne lines, it’s hard to see how Murrumbeena and Noble Park share any community of interest whatsoever.

But the stretch of Glen Waverley Line from Malvern East / Darling through to Glen Waverley doesn’t have the dramatic demographic changes that the Pakenham/Cranbourne line has so I think it works ok. Certainly better than Malvern East being in Hotham as per the original draft.

@Trent Ah Okay that makes sense. Yes Hotham always seems to be a bit of a mismatch.

For anyone interested, the gazetted enrolment for October has been released:
https://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/gazetted/2024/10.htm

The only real problem division is Gorton, which is already at +5.80% enrolment deviation and appears to be the fastest growing division in the state. Not quite sure why the ABS projections thought that this division was going to remain stable.

Melbourne and Macnamara are also interesting as they are far lower on enrolment than expected (-5.61% and -4.86%), possibly due to the large presence of non-citizens in the inner city. Sydney appears to be the same.

The 21 divisions in the North and West of the state are currently slightly underenrolled, making up 20.85 quotas. Based on long term trends, they’ll reach 21 quotas roughly 2 years from now.

@angas by that time victoria may have regained its 39th seat

Monash 2022 margin is less than 3%. Me Broadbent has been the mp for ages. IF he contests he could win.
He also has a personal vote which will be lost to the liberals in a classic contest. Depends on the vic political climate at the 2025 election.
This could be won by alp lib or Broadbent. Alp win least likely

@ MQ
Parts of Monash namely the La Trobe valley has been declining for Labor as the Electricity industry wins down. However, other parts namely Bass Coast Shire has been improving for Labor as more sea changers move in. South Gippsland Shire and to a lesser extent Baw Baw Shire are thumping for the Coalition.

@mick if the alp cant win in 2022 they wont win now.will be an alpvlib contest again.

Most of the la tribe Valley is in Gippsland

The contest changes if Mr Broadbent recontests

@mick not really he likely wont make the 2cp

i agree with John i dont think he will make the 2CP. i think his personal vote is dropping as he is getting Old and tired. I expect a Liberal retain and a classic contest maybe a swing to the Labor in Bass Coast but a swing to the Libs elsewhere. The Nats may contest though. The Moe area is still in Monash and i expect the Labor vote to decline further.

Broadbent seems to be more focussed on his one-man anti-vax crusade more than anything else in his community, going by his website and social media posts. He certainly won’t be missed by the electorate nor by his former party. Definitely a Liberal retain even though it will be somewhat competitive.

@ Tommo9
I think Broadbent has past use by date and outlived his usefulness and did not know when to go. Ideally he ought to have retired around 2019.

Russell Broadbent is an impressive speaker in Parliament, obviously the Liberal Party won’t want to be fighting the multinational pharmaceutical industry over vaccines at the Election.
Interesting that the new Liberal candidate’s father [Ken Aldred] lost preselection for Deakin in 1995 as the sitting member.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Aldred

@nimalan given its a LIberal seat currently the nats wont be able to contest it

@ John
However, there is no sitting member for the Libs so Nats can contest it. This happened last time in McMillan in 2004 when Bridget Mackenzie contested it for the Nats. in Nicholls in 2022 the Libs were able to run as well.

@nimalan the situation however is different the member has retired or died theyve simply preselected a different candidate whilst still having an incumbent. the nats did the same in port stephens in nsw they laid a claim on the seat given it was elected as a nats seat so the situation is different

Not a Victorian so hard to tell. But Mr Broadbent survived in a seat in Vic which was marginal. To write him off is a mistake. I think he is more substantial then most posters here give him credit for. I am not sure if he will recontest or not but if he does he can make the 2pp…and he owes the liberal party no favours. So his preferences can go anywhere

@ John
Ok Fair point. I thought it would be considered an open seat as Broadbent is no longer with the Libs.

@mick given the amount of people who contest this division i cant see broadbent polling more then liberal or labor. he especially wont be receiving green preferences over labor so unless he can outpoll the libs i fail to see him winning in a seat that does FPV.

@nimalan given the seat was elected as a liberal seat the libs may lay a claim on it.

@Mick while Broadbent May have survived due to his personal vote in 2022. That vote is likely not substantial enough to get him anywhere near enough to make the 2cp. He won’t be taking enough votes from labor or liberal to push them.out of the 2pp. If he preferences labor the Libs will use that against him. He’s probably angling for the retirement by defeat at which point he gets a 6 month salary severance.

Seriously if Russell Broadbent was a vote winner he would have won preselection. Instead he lost by a huge margin. Definitely past his use by date. Last election he didnt seem to put much effort in – if the number of signs/ corflutes was anything to go by. Not sure if the Nats would run but they do hold 2 of the 4 overlapping state seats and they did make a run for Bass at the state election – probably costing the Libs the seat.

I don’t think the Nats will run in a notional Libs seat. Given its small margin, the last thing either party wants is to split the vote and hand it to Labor. Broadbent is on his way out and he’s unlikely to finish in the final three. He might just run dead and get his golden handshake worth 6 months of his salary.

What if the Nats recruited Broadbent?

@The Sheriff that won’t happen, he’s too old.

Votentate
Russell Broadbent will receive parliamentary pension, which is not affected by mode of departure.

Agreed if Broadbent was that popular he would have won predilection. Libs wouldn’t even vote for him to be the candidate why would they vote for him at an election.

Frankly I don’t think any part would want to have Broadbent in their camp, particularly given that he’s not only way past his use-by date, but also he’s constantly sprouting anti-vax things on his website and social media that only attracts the fringe cookers than the mainstream population. It’s no wonder he lost pre-selection given that even his electorate’s party branch has had enough of him.

@Tommo9 not to mention he apparently lives in Pakenham which is in Melbourne. Pakenham is in the neighbouring seat of La Trobe which is to the west of Monash but Pakenham is on the opposite edge of the seat. Warragul (which I think is the largest town in Monash) is 35 minutes east of Pakenham.

It’s no wonder he lost pre-selection given that even his electorate’s party branch has had enough of him.
Internal Liberal politics.
Apart from the Covid Vaccination issue, Broadbent could be a generic Teal candidate.
He’s still speaking up in Parliament, and doing so quite well, so i’d say he’s in it to win and he’s got name recognition going back 35 years.
******************************
On the issue of living in Pakenham, that hasn’t stopped him representing Monash effectively, he’s already been defeated twice as a Member, it’s a bit rough to expect him to move house every few years at the whim of redistributions.

We all know how party pre-election work.
The winner is not necessarily the best liked or best for the electorate
What people have posted here could be right then again maybe not. A seat with a 3% margin is vulnerable to broadbent or labor

@mick who exactly is going to be voting for broadbent to get him in the 2cp?

My gut instinct is that the seat is marginal and that Broadbent can either win or the spray of his preferences can enable Labor to win.
If he doesn’t stand then lib retain
I may be wrong we will see at the election

@mick broadband can’t win his own party just shafted him. He may keep a small number of voters but that won’t be any more then 10% I’d say. He’ll likely preference the libs or just have a vote 1 and then make your own preferences card.

10% is sizable. Obvious not enough to.make 2cp unless he spirals preferences from others.
Really need close to 25% a big ask

The only major players are the greens and he’ll will freeze over they preference him over labor

@Mick, Yes, Monash is marginal but I highly doubt Broadbent will make the final two. If Broadbent runs, he might split the conservative vote and make it easier for Labor. He may even run for a minor right-wing party like One Nation or Family First. Either way, I still see this as a Liberal retain/gain.

Alex Dyson is running as an IND for Wannon again.
@Ben Raue, the margin for Wannon in the pendulum at the bottom should be for Libs (not Nats).

@votante 2022 was a low point for the libs and if expect that will recover to a safe seat now. The nuclear power position of the libs may help too. Broadband has been there on and off since 1990 and will be 74 on Christmas Day.. other then Katter and Entsch there aren’t any others older then him. He’s better off just accepting it and retiring gracefully.

Reading through the report, I must admit it pisses me off when the Redistribution Committee says things like “The Objectors provided no alternatives to the Committee’s proposals”

I and others submitted plenty of different alternative arrangements, complete with elector calculations to show the numbers balanced.

If the Committee didn’t want to use our proposals then fine. But don’t pretend like we didn’t provide any.

Mark, I believe the Commitee should have phrased it as “The objectors provided no suitable alternatives…” because whilst the proposed changes were good, they had too much flow over impact and the Commitee has a preference to ensure ‘as few electors are transferred as possible’, even though that defeats the whole objective of ensuring boundaries have good community of interest.